1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial instruments, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment strategies based on current market conditions and geopolitical factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose last week. Supply concerns remain due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Iran. OPEC+ may decide to increase production slightly. It is recommended to maintain a configuration of short futures and long call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors may drive oil prices and fuel oil prices higher. High - sulfur fuel oil is directly supported by potential Russian export disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is constrained by weak demand and other factors [21] - **Bitumen**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. With production adjustments and seasonal demand support, bitumen is expected to be slightly bullish [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Affected by typhoons, import volumes decreased. With expected growth in consumption, the LPG market has rebounded [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Copper**: In the fourth quarter, copper prices are affected by interest rate meetings and supply disruptions. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough. Support levels for LME copper and SHFE copper are provided [4] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum consumption was lower than expected in September. The market lacks strong drivers and faces resistance at previous highs [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in significant surplus, and prices are weak. The support level is around 2,800 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has a supply - demand imbalance. The external market has low inventory but high prices. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is expected to be limited [8] - **Lead**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weakening, and stainless steel prices are supported by cost factors but face limited upside [10] - **Tin**: There is no clear trend in tin prices. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see after stocking [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices show support at low levels but face downward pressure from expectations [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is supported by the spot market but has limited upside due to the supply - demand pattern [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is expected to oscillate at the lower end of the range due to supply - demand and policy factors [14] Steel - **Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Thread demand improved, while hot - rolled coil demand and production declined slightly. Overall, the market is weak due to poor profits and weak downstream demand [15] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is supported by high iron - making production. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking is completed, although there is some support from downstream demand [17] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking, with supply - demand factors providing some support [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to policy adjustments [24] - **Methanol**: Port inventories are decreasing, but high - level inventories and expected accumulation limit price increases. Overseas plant gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded slightly but faced resistance due to high imports and weak demand expectations [26] - **Styrene**: Inventories increased before the National Day, and price increases were blocked [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is in a state of supply - demand game, with prices oscillating in a range [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and inventory, and the price may be weak. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [29] - **PX & PTA**: PX expectations weakened, and PTA is under supply - demand pressure despite some profit improvement [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is improving, and bottle - chip prices are slightly strong due to production disruptions [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by foreign policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The soybean supply chain may face short - term tightness, but the risk is expected to ease. Palm oil has supply - side drivers. It is recommended to consider a protective call strategy [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed - related market is expected to oscillate in the short term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans are showing a price rebound, and attention should be paid to domestic and foreign supply and demand [39] - **Corn**: With expected high production and weak demand, corn futures are expected to be weak [40] - **Live Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to secondary fattening and government policies [41] - **Eggs**: The short - term price increase momentum is limited, and it is recommended to consider long positions in far - month contracts [42] - **Cotton**: US and domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to weak demand and supply progress [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices face pressure, and the domestic sugar production outlook is relatively good [44] - **Apple**: The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and the price faces pressure [45] - **Timber**: Supply is low, demand in the peak season is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [46] - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [47] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined, affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: ★★★ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil; ★★☆ for soybean and soybean meal; ★☆☆ for corn and live pigs; ☆☆☆ for eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: None Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment suggestions based on the analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean futures price continued to rebound with decreasing positions, outperforming imported soybeans, and the price difference widened. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, with weak quotes. Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. Focus on the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to decline by 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced on Monday, the futures price dropped significantly. As of Wednesday, the sales volume of related products reached the $7 billion limit, and Argentina cancelled the soybean tax exemption policy. During this period, China imported more than 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans. The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, so continue to wait and see. In the long term, maintain a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. The EU decided to postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulations for one year, and the medium - to - long - term demand expectation for palm oil improved. Palm oil is in the production reduction cycle in Q4. The medium - term soybean and palm oil prices are expected to move within a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered to hedge against unexpected risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintained the pattern of strong oil and weak meal. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, affected by the seasonal decline in aquaculture feed demand and the low unit protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The oil - to - meal ratio of rapeseed products is expected to continue to rebound, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slow decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a very low level, and coastal oil mills may shut down on a large scale after the National Day. The rapeseed futures will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures opened low and closed high, rising 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. As the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has been falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures increased positions by nearly 10,000 lots, and all contracts continued to decline to new lows. The spot price continued to weaken, reaching a new low this year, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and slaughter was high. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Pay attention to when secondary fattening will enter the market again and the government's willingness to support the pig price. In the long term, if the reduction of fertile sows starts in September, it is expected to improve the pig price expectation in the second half of next year. Currently, the live pig futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is low, and the futures price is weak. The funds continued to reduce positions by nearly 50,000 lots. The spot price rebound since the peak season in September reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry's high - inventory problem requires deep capacity reduction. Consider taking long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fibers: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various chemical products are complex, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and downstream demand influencing their price trends. Each product has its own unique situation, including both short - term and long - term influencing factors [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. The market news was mixed, with supply - demand dynamics in play. Downstream factories were hesitant, and overall market trading was average [2] - Polyethylene had tight spot resources at the end of the month, with upstream suppliers holding firm on prices. Downstream factories had completed stocking, and market caution persisted. Supply - demand was weakly stable, and prices fluctuated within a range [2] - For polypropylene, international oil prices were strong recently, strengthening cost support. Supply - side device maintenance was high, downstream industry开工 increased, and some factories stocked up before the holiday. The market focused on reducing inventory through cautious price cuts [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene futures fluctuated around 5900 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China declined slightly, and trading volume in Shandong decreased. Overall operation slightly increased, processing margins oscillated at a low level, downstream industries stocked up before the holiday, and port inventories decreased. However, high import volumes and expected future demand decline limited the rebound of pure benzene [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. Jiangsu port inventories increased before the National Day, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years. Downstream rigid demand was stable, but spot demand was weak. Pre - holiday stocking was lower than expected, hindering price increases [3] Polyester - PX's upward momentum weakened, and its valuation declined, releasing negative factors. Crude oil's rebound drove synchronous rebounds in PX and PTA. As the long holiday approached, positions on the futures market were continuously reduced. PTA's profitability improved slightly but remained poor. TA - PX spreads narrowed. The polyester filament market saw a significant increase in sales at the end of the day, fulfilling pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, future supply - demand remained under pressure [5] - Domestic ethylene glycol operation decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to decline. The supply pressure was not significant in reality, but supply - demand was expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Risks included low port inventories and uncertainties in the trial runs of two new devices [5] - Short - fiber new production capacity was limited, production was at a high level, and inventories decreased. The recovery of peak - season demand improved industry expectations. Pre - holiday downstream stocking benefits were realized, and long - short spreads should be exited at high levels [5] - A major bottle - chip device in South China stopped production due to seawater backflow caused by a typhoon, making the bottle - chip trend slightly stronger. Long - term over - capacity was a pressure, and the processing margin recovery space was limited. Attention should be paid to the restart schedule of the stopped device [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports were temporarily low, and the operation of coastal MTO devices increased. Some low - end imported goods flowed to the surrounding inland areas, resulting in port inventory reduction. Pre - holiday downstream stocking demand supported the market, but high port inventories and expected inventory accumulation limited the upward potential of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [6] - After a slight increase in urea prices, downstream follow - up was cautious. Agricultural demand was weak, and industrial compound fertilizer demand was insufficient. Daily production remained high, overall demand was less than supply, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. The oversupply situation persisted, and the export window was approaching its end. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to have a high - supply and high - inventory pattern. This week's operation increased month - on - month, with new devices being tested and put into mass production, resulting in high supply pressure. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention was low, and foreign demand was weak. The industry continued to accumulate inventory. Chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and cost support was not obvious. PVC might show a weakening oscillating trend [7] - Caustic soda was in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The downstream demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and inventories continued to increase. Alumina plants had low unloading efficiency, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to receive goods decreased. Device maintenance and restart coexisted, operation fluctuated slightly, and supply continued to be under high pressure. Downstream profits shrank, and there was resistance to high prices. In the short term, Shandong downstream purchases reduced prices, showing a weak reality. However, there might be stocking demand before the future downstream alumina production, and the strong expectation could not be disproven. The futures price might oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was weak during the day. Recently, manufacturers reduced inventory, and supply was at a high level. The photovoltaic industry's fundamentals improved in August, with increased production capacity, driving up the demand for heavy soda ash. However, the photovoltaic industry had cooled down, and the expected increase in heavy soda ash demand was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and opportunities to short at high levels should be sought, but caution was needed near the cost level [8] - Glass weakened during the day. Prices continued to rise today, and manufacturers' overall sales were good. The melting rate was oscillating at a relatively high level. Processing orders improved month - on - month but were still insufficient, and some project orders increased. The actual situation of whether Zhengkang coal - made gas would be centrally used in Shahe should be continuously monitored. In the short term, market sentiment was high, and with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of glass production capacity control, the futures price was expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, if production capacity reduction did not materialize, the market might return to a weak - reality trading pattern [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to tighten in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply chain gaps will ease, and the supply in Q2 will depend on the Brazilian new crop [2][4] - The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism about the Dalian soybean meal [3] - Soybean and palm oil are expected to operate in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] - Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] - Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] - The current live pig futures price is bearish, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction and policy support [8] - For egg futures, consider long positions in far - month contracts and pay attention to short - position funds in near - month contracts [9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans show a stronger price than imported soybeans, and the price difference is expanding. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed with weak quotes. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply may tighten in Q1 next year, and the Brazilian new crop in Q2 is crucial [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal fell 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced, it fell sharply. About 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans were imported during the period. The market is disturbed by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated this week. China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply of domestic beans may tighten in Q1 next year. The EU postponed the anti - deforestation regulations, and palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in Q4. Consider a protective call strategy [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintains an oil - strong and meal - weak pattern. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound. Rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - Dalian corn rose 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn output. With the increase in the listing of new corn, the opening price has been falling. It may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fell to a new low, and the spot price also weakened. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. Consider the re - entry of secondary fattening and government support. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are low, and the futures price is weak. The post - holiday demand will be weak. There is a need for deep capacity reduction. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot Rolled: ★★☆ (suggesting a clearer upward/downward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (representing a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ (meaning a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability in the market) [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability in the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak short - term trend due to weak overall domestic demand, though steel exports remain high [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level with uncertainties from overseas trade frictions and a need for domestic stimulus policies [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to oscillate downward after the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, despite support from high downstream hot metal levels [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price drivers with good demand, and it is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Thread's apparent demand improved month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand and production both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. High hot metal production alleviated the negative feedback pressure in the industry chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain high. The market sentiment is low, and the short - term trend is weak [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. Overseas shipments are relatively strong, and non - mainstream shipments have increased significantly recently. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory has increased. There is no significant short - term inventory accumulation pressure. Domestic terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have a small profit and are reluctant to cut production actively. High hot metal production this week continues to support iron ore demand. The market is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated downward today. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was partially implemented. Coking profit is average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to increase. Due to pre - holiday stockpiling demand, traders' purchasing willingness increased. The carbon element supply is abundant, and high downstream hot metal levels support the price. After the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, the price is likely to oscillate downward [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated downward today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. The pre - holiday stockpiling sentiment has basically ended, and spot auction transactions may weaken before the holiday. Terminal inventory has increased. Total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although some mines have resumed production, it is less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the background of over - production inspection. High downstream hot metal levels support the price. After the completion of pre - holiday stockpiling, the price is likely to oscillate downward [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated weakly today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created a new upward price driver. Hot metal production has continued to rise above 241. Weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level. Inventory has not increased, and both futures and spot demand are good. The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore has been boosted. Manganese ore inventory has increased, but at a slow pace. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillated weakly today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created a new upward price driver. Hot metal production has continued to rise above 241. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. Metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, market futures and spot demand are good, and on - balance inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, similar to gold, a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tonight's PCE inflation data and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - The US second - quarter GDP was significantly revised up to a 3.8% increase, the highest in two years, with the previous value at 3.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] Fed Officials' Speeches - Fed Governor Bowman believes that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation. This year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thinks the more the balance sheet shrinks, the better. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is a bit worried about excessive early rate cuts based on the slowdown in employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also believes that it is too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures products, including their closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. It also shows the year - to - date price changes and weekly average position and capital changes of these products, which helps investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in different futures sectors [2][4][14]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Precious Metals**: Gold had a closing price of 856.06 with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 3.07% and a volatility change of 14.14%. Silver closed at 10,632.00, with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 6.63% and a volatility change of 23.21% [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 82,470.00, with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 3.28% and a volatility change of 14.48%. Nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, and lead also had their respective price and volatility data [2]. - **Black Metals**: Products like iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed significant price changes. For example, iron ore closed at 790.00 with a weekly price change of 17.43% [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 491.30 with a weekly price change of 25.02%. Other products such as fuel oil, LPG, and PVC also had their price and volatility information [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Products like soybeans, cotton, and sugar had different price trends. For instance, soybeans (bean one) closed at 3,935.00 with a weekly price change of 8.95% [2]. 3.2 Financial Futures - IC closed at 7,080.00 with a weekly price change of 1.37% and a 20 - day annualized volatility of 26.69%. IF, IM, IH, T, TS, and TF also had their corresponding price and volatility data [4]. 3.3 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Precious metals like silver and gold had relatively high year - to - date price increases, while some products such as industrial silicon and线材 had significant price decreases [14]. 3.4 Weekly Average Position and Capital Changes - Zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin had significant increases in their positions. Copper, silver, gold, apple, and fuel oil attracted more capital attention [16][17][18].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.8万人为近两月以来新低,第二季度GDP大幅上修至增长 3.8%创两年新高。美联储多位官员讲话体现谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚PCE通胀数 据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价收回部分涨势，美国二季度GDP增速再被上调影响联储降息节奏预期,且美元指数走 高。高盛对Grasberg不可抗力，做出今明年各减少25-27万吨的预期，比较容观，同时下调近两年 铜矿供应增速至0.2%、1.9%，至12月价格预期为9700-1.05万美元。关注沪铜仓量变动。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。9月铝表观消费不及预期，昨日铝锭社库下降2万吨，但国庆前去库尚不及往年 同期。沪铝整体驱动不足,在3月高点位置仍面临阻力。 【氧化铝】 氧化铝运行产能接近9800万吨刷新历史新高，行业库存持续上升。供应过剩明显，国内外观货继续 下调。当前价格晋豫产能现金成本尚有利润暂难触发减产，氧化铝弱势运行支撑看向6月低点2800 元附近。 综合晨报 2025年09月26日 (原油) 隔夜 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (国产大豆): ★☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks based on factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures saw significant position - cutting, and prices rebounded from a phased low. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, and new bean quotes are weak. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans this week, which helps to gradually reduce domestic soybean inventory and mitigate supply - chain risks in Q1 next year. The supply in Q2 next year depends on the Brazilian new crop [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures rose 1.54% today. US policies have a large impact on the soybean meal market. The short - term bearish trend may end, and the long - term outlook for Dalian soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil futures cut positions, and prices rebounded rapidly. China's short - term active purchase of Argentine beans and large domestic inventory buffers will help reduce inventory. The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, improving the medium - to - long - term demand outlook for palm oil. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures prices rebounded today, offsetting some previous losses. The domestic rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. The consumption of vegetable oil will improve in autumn and winter, and the de - stocking of rapeseed oil is expected to continue. The rapeseed futures are expected to stabilize in the short term but have limited upside [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. With the increase in the listing volume of new corn in the Northeast, the opening price has been falling. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs hit a new low, and the futures market was weak. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. The entry timing of secondary fattening and government support policies need to be monitored. The current futures price of live pigs is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and near - month contracts rebounded slightly. The spot price has been falling in many places. After the National Day, egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered [9]