Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly interpretable from the symbol "ななな" [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It assesses the supply, demand, and inventory situations of each commodity and gives corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, maintaining a bullish or bearish stance [1][2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and strong pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new harvest. The purchase price of seed cotton followed the futures price down. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Ginners are cautious about new cotton purchase, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for purchase. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the bumper harvest. Weak peak - season demand and poor spinning profits drag down cotton prices. Although Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, details need further tracking. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratio, leading to a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane increased year - on - year, indicating a relatively good output expectation for the 25/26 season. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. For the new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji was slow, and the quality of ordered goods was average. Late - maturing Fuji began to remove bags, and the fruit size was smaller this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers' bullish sentiment led to an increase in fruit retention, and the cold - storage inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU (natural rubber futures) continued to decline slightly, NR (20 - rubber futures) first declined and then rose, and BR (butadiene rubber futures) continued to fall. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a downward trend, the port price of butadiene in the overseas market was stable, and the raw material prices in Thailand generally declined. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance and some restarting. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly, and that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tires continued to increase. They will arrange holidays during the National Day. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased to 27,800 tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, inventory reduction is difficult, and the external environment is poor. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Pulp - Zhengzhou pulp futures dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,300 yuan/ton for Moon brand and 5,250 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,250 yuan/ton for Goldfish brand and remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% month - on - month decline. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaf pulp still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. The current port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The port spot price increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume increased last week. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October increased, but the domestic spot price remained weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating strong peak - season demand and smooth inventory reduction. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Considering the improved supply - demand situation and relatively low spot price, a bullish strategy is maintained [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean (Imported): Not rated - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of different agricultural products varies, and the market performance also shows different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of various factors such as production, inventory, policies, and seasons on the market [2][3][5]. - For different agricultural products, different investment strategies are recommended, including short - term tracking, long - term cautious optimism, and pre - holiday waiting and seeing [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are currently strong, with low - protein soybeans on the market. The expected output of domestic soybeans is flat or slightly increased compared to last year due to increased planting area. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has widened. The price of US soybeans is weak due to seasonal harvest pressure and uncertain export prospects. The supply of domestic soybeans may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Focus on the performance of domestic soybeans after listing and the new Brazilian crop in the second quarter of next year [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After Argentina's export policy was introduced, the prices of related products on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 2.98%. After reaching the sales limit of $7 billion, Argentina cancelled the soybean tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has risen to 125 tons. The supply of soybeans from July to November is sufficient, and the annual output of domestic soybeans is expected to reach 21 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and the possible supply gap will occur in the first quarter of next year. The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are under seasonal harvest pressure, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. In the medium term, soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and they face macro - risk tests [3]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures market shows a pattern of weak oil and strong meal, but the overall fluctuation is small. The supply of rapeseed is sufficient, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is limited due to low price - performance ratio and the approaching off - season of aquatic feed. The demand for rapeseed oil increases in autumn and winter, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [5]. Corn - The output of new - season corn is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions. The opening price of new - season corn has dropped. Shandong's spot price is weak, and the supply is increasing. Corn is expected to fluctuate before and after the opening of new - season grain, and the Dalian corn futures are expected to remain weak at the bottom [6]. Live Hogs - The price of live hog futures has dropped significantly, and the valuation centers of near - and far - month contracts have shifted down. The supply of live hogs is abundant, and the spot price has reached a new low. The government has carried out small - scale frozen - pork purchases. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is high, and the industry is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the process of capacity reduction and the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [7]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced their positions. The spot price has declined after reaching a high point on September 17. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will weaken. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of production capacity is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position layouts for the far - month contracts in the first half of next year and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The report does not clearly define this rating) [1] - 20 - rubber: The symbol is not clearly defined in the report [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] Core Views Overall - Different soft commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions according to their respective fundamentals, including supply, demand, and weather conditions [2][3][4] By Commodity - **Cotton**: Short - term Zhengzhou cotton shows a weak trend. Temporarily wait and see due to factors such as weak domestic demand, cautious new - cotton acquisition, and undetermined details of Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - **Sugar**: The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output forecast. The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the output in Guangxi, China, is expected to be good in the 25/26 season. Monitor subsequent weather and growth [3] - **Apple**: Although the spot market performs well, the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and the price faces upward pressure. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] - **20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber**: With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, and inventory reduction is difficult. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] - **Pulp**: The price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Temporarily wait and see, paying attention to changes in port inventory and warehouse receipts [7] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Adopt a bullish trading strategy [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline today, with weak spot trading and good new - cotton pre - sales. The purchase price of seed cotton has weakened, and the probability of a bumper harvest in Xinjiang is high, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Domestic demand in the peak season is weak, and spinning profits are poor, dragging down the cotton price. Sino - US trade negotiations have released positive signals, but details need to be tracked [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the south - central region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar showed a weak fluctuation. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output forecast. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good, and subsequent weather and growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. For new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji is slow, and the quality of ordered goods is average. The late - maturing Fuji is gradually being unbagged, and the fruit size is small this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the supply - side lacks positive drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber - Today, RU continued to decline slightly, NR first declined and then rose, and BR continued to decline. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubbers are stable with a downward trend. The global natural - rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants has dropped significantly. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly last week, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire inventories continued to increase, and tire companies will arrange holidays for the National Day. The total natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons [6] Pulp - The Zhengzhou futures price of pulp has dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaved pulp is stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased by 79,000 tons to 2.033 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the supply of pulp is relatively loose. The demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuates. The port quotation has increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume last week increased, and the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October has increased. Domestic traders' willingness to import has decreased, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating the peak - season demand. The total inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Adopt a bullish trading strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a proper investment chance [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations, lack of substantial production - limiting policies, and weak domestic demand, while steel exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets have relatively strong support at previous lows but face pressure due to concerns about post - festival industrial chain feedback. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price - driving forces and are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Although the pig iron output increased and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today, and the basis has been fluctuating at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and those to China increased significantly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high, while those from Brazil weakened slightly. The domestic arrival volume declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased last week. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills declined, but the short - term resilience of pig iron production still supported iron ore demand. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward today. The first round of price hikes by coking plants is about to be fully implemented. Coke inventory continued to increase, and traders' purchasing willingness increased due to pre - holiday restocking demand. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. However, the market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward today. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the pre - holiday restocking sentiment has basically ended. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. The market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created new upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, the weekly production of silicon manganese increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate was slow. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, and export demand remained at about 30,000 tons. The secondary demand declined slightly, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week ending September 26, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 0.21%, -0.27%, and 0.43% respectively [3]. - In the public - fund market, passive index products had strong performance in the past week, neutral strategy products mostly declined, convertible bonds outperformed pure bonds, and precious - metal ETFs continued to strengthen, with silver ETF rising 5.72% and soybean meal ETF continuing to decline [3]. - Among the CITIC five - style indices, growth and cyclical styles rose last week, while the others fell. The style timing model signals a preference for the growth style this week [3]. - The short - term momentum factor in Barra factors had a good performance last week, with a weekly excess return of 1.85%. The style timing strategy had a return of 1.58% last week, with an excess return of 1.85% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Recent Market Returns - Market indices: Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) rose 0.21%, ChinaBond Composite Bond declined 0.27%, and Nanhua Commodity Index rose 0.43% in the week ending September 26, 2025 [3]. - Public - fund market: Passive index products performed strongly, neutral strategy products mostly declined, convertible bonds outperformed pure bonds, precious - metal ETFs strengthened (silver ETF +5.72%, soybean meal ETF declined), and consumer - style funds had an excess return of 0.91% in the past week [3]. CITIC Style Index - Performance: Growth and cyclical styles rose last week, while the others fell. The cyclical style weakened marginally in relative strength, and the stable and financial styles slightly recovered in indicator momentum [3]. - Style timing: According to the style timing model, consumer and cyclical styles declined marginally this week, while stable and financial styles slightly recovered, with a signal favoring the growth style. The style timing strategy had a return of 1.58% last week, with an excess return of 1.85% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Barra Factors - Factor performance: The short - term momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 1.85%, and the cash - flow and growth factors' returns recovered marginally. The residual momentum factor's win - rate improved [3]. - Factor rotation: The factor cross - section rotation speed increased this week, reaching the medium historical quantile range [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX, PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol, short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips, methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea, PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic soda, soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors. Some products are facing supply pressure and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand but also face future uncertainties [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Supply is controllable as restarting devices are not in place, and downstream demand provides some price support [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts also fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene maintenance decreased with increased domestic production, and downstream has pre - holiday stocking demand but faces post - holiday de - stocking pressure. Polypropylene prices are under pressure due to multiple factors such as demand differentiation, supply pressure, and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene oscillated downward. Although the current fundamental situation is okay with port inventory decreasing and spot price being relatively firm, high import volume and expected demand decline drag the market [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Cost - end oil price provides support, but high inventory suppresses the price [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation weakened, and PTA's profitability is still poor. Although the pre - holiday stocking in the polyester yarn industry has reduced inventory pressure, post - holiday demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation remains under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operation decreased slightly, and port inventory is low. However, new device trials and weakening demand may lead to a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter [5] - Short - fiber's new capacity is limited, and inventory decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has fulfilled the positive expectation. Bottle chips showed a short - term strong trend due to typhoon - affected device shutdown, but long - term over - capacity is a pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's main contract oscillated. Port inventory is expected to increase after the holiday, and the market is expected to be weak [6] - Urea prices increased slightly, but downstream follow - up is cautious. The domestic supply - demand situation is loose, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated weakly with high supply and high inventory. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention is low, and foreign demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda's futures price oscillated under the weak situation. Although there is an expectation of downstream stocking before alumina production, the current supply is high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash weakened. The industry is de - stocking, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking is nearly over. The long - term supply is in excess [8] - Glass prices fell from a high level. Some manufacturers plan to increase prices, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking sentiment [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but with limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Precious metals continue to be strong and reach new highs. The market maintains the expectation of consecutive interest rate cuts this year, but there are differences among Fed officials on the prospects of interest rate cuts, which need to be verified by subsequent employment and inflation data [1]. - If the US Congress fails to reach a consensus on fiscal appropriation, some government agencies may shut down, and relevant economic reports may be postponed. The government shutdown from 2018 - 2019 led to a rise in gold prices [1]. - In the medium - term, factors such as the weakening of the US economy, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuation of geopolitical risks support the upward movement of the gold price center, and silver aims for the 2011 high. However, there is significant market volatility risk during the National Day holiday, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1]. - This week, key US data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI should be closely monitored [1]. 3) Summary by Related Information - **US Economic Data** - In August, the US PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point higher than in July. The core PCE price increased by 2.9% year - on - year, the same as in July, meeting market expectations [2]. - The US Q2 GDP was revised upwards to a 3.8% increase, a two - year high, compared with the previous value of 3.3% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025 [2]. - **Political Events** - Four top US congressional leaders will meet with President Trump at the White House on Monday. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement on the short - term spending bill, federal funds will run out on Tuesday [2]. - **Fed Officials' Statements** - Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates [2]. - Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only Treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Crude oil supply is in a mixed state of immediate increase and geopolitical risks, with a clear inventory accumulation process. Oil prices have limited upside space, and a protective strategy combining short futures and call options is recommended [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, showing a short-term strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil has abundant supply and weak demand, mainly following cost fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt market has increased pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm, with a decline in overall inventory levels. The subsequent demand is boosted by seasonal factors, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas has a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with an expected increase in overall consumption. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly from the previous bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply is in a multi - empty intertwined state with inventory accumulation of 2.4% in the third quarter, including 0.5% for crude oil and 5.5% for refined oil. The inventory structure has shifted to upstream crude oil. A protective strategy is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Middle East shipments are high, but geopolitical factors cause concerns about supply reduction, supporting the FU trend [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [2]. Asphalt - Pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, with a decrease in refinery and social inventories. The October production plan has a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Import arrivals in the South China region have decreased due to typhoons, and overall consumption is expected to increase. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]