El the mis 11月官方PMI数据快报 2024年12月2日 星期一 国投期货 | 宏观金融团队 gtaxinstitute@essence.com 2024年11月份，制造业PMI为50.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，好于预期50.2%，为连续三个月回 升,扩张步伐小幅加快;非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%,比上月下降0.2个百分点;综合PMI产 出指数为50.8%,与上月持平。从季节性规律看,制造业PMI基本持平季节性变化。从结构来看, 产需两端均有稳步增长,新订单、生产指数分别回升0.8、0.4 个点，需求发力超过供给,供需 关系边际改善;价格指数持续回落,库存去化动力不足;"抢出口"再现,中小型企业预期明显 回暖。非制造业方面，11月建筑业商务活动指数环比下降0.7ppt至49.7%，近10年以来除了2020 年2月受疫情冲击导致的异常值之外,首次落在临界值以下。虽然有淡季因素影响，但是显著弱 于季节性的表现也反映了前端地产销量虽然有所回暖,但尚未传导至施工端。虽然政府债券发行 加速,但基建实物工作量仍待改善。11月服务业商务活动指数环比持平为50.1%，处于历史较低 水平,显示10月国庆出 ...

Global Market Overview - The expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased, leading to a notable decline in the US dollar index and Treasury yields during the week of November 25 to November 29, with the dollar index falling by 1.60%[1] - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets; the MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased by 0.80% while the MSCI Developed Markets Index increased by 1.17%[3] - The global bond market saw gains, with the Global Bond Index rising by 1.80% and the Global Government Bond Index increasing by 2.06%[3] Domestic Market Performance - In China, the manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The domestic stock market experienced an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.81% during the week[39] - The bond market in China remained strong, supported by a net injection of 518 billion yuan by the central bank, with the overall bond market performance categorized as government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds[41] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market faced a downturn, with the S&P GSCI Commodity Index declining by 2.01% and the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index falling by 1.02%[3] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, attributed to concerns over supply and market fundamentals, with Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 4.24%[35] Future Outlook - Attention is focused on upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including the US non-farm payrolls, which could influence market trends in early December[2]

Investment Data Overview - In October 2024, China's fixed asset investment maintained a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[2] - Private fixed asset investment showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year change of -0.3%[2] - The real estate sector continued to struggle, with a year-on-year decrease of -10.3%[2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry performed the best, with a year-on-year contraction of only 24.1%[2] Regional and Sectoral Insights - Investment in Northeast and Northwest regions fell to 1.8% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Central and Western regions saw investment growth, with year-on-year increases of 4.6% and 1.1%[2] - New construction investment decreased by -1.4% year-on-year, while expansion investment surged by 39.3%[2] - Reconstruction investment also saw a decline, with a year-on-year change of -2.7%[2] Machinery Sales Performance - In October 2024, excavator sales in China increased by 15.1% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month[2] - Domestic excavator sales are recovering rapidly, while export volumes are showing a slow recovery, indicating a gradual industry rebound[2]

Financial Data Summary - In October 2024, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 1.44 trillion yuan[2] - The stock of social financing growth rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 7.8%, marking a historical low[2] - New RMB loans in October were 298.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 184.9 billion yuan, indicating continued low financing demand[2] - Government bonds were the main contributor to the decrease in social financing, with a year-on-year reduction of 514.2 billion yuan due to high base effects[2] Monetary Indicators - M2 growth rate rose to 7.5%, up 0.7 percentage points from September, driven by increased fiscal spending[2] - M1 showed a rebound, with a decline narrowing to -6.1%, indicating improved activity in the real economy[2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates decreased from 14.2 percentage points to 13.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced liquidity in the economy[2] Future Outlook - The implementation of a large-scale debt plan by the National People's Congress in November 2024 is expected to support economic growth through stronger fiscal policies[2] - Continued support from monetary and fiscal policies is anticipated to improve liquidity in the real economy, with potential for further recovery in financing demand[2]

2024 年 11 月 11 日 大规模化债落地，积极财政政策仍具备想象空间 —11 月 8 号人大常委会发布财政政策相关点评 点石成金 朱赫 靳顺柔子 期货投资咨询号 Z0015192 期货投资咨询号 Z0014424 事件： 11 月 8 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议闭幕，并就财政政策召开了新闻 发布会。 点评： 一、会前关注：一次性新增债务额度和增量政策出台 回顾 10 月 12 日的中国财政部的新闻发布会，重点内容有：1）针对支持地方政府化 债问题，"较大规模"与"较大空间"的年内增量政策空间；2）针对赤字率和财政收入缺 口问题，蓝部长表示"中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字率提升空间"；3）包括专项债 收储在内的政策组合拳支持房地产市场"止跌回稳"；4）发行特别国债支持国有大型商业 银行补充核心一级资本；5）中低收入人群和重点群体增收措施。 总体来看，财政部虽然没有给出具体的数字，但表态十分积极，既聚焦短期、又兼顾 长远，提振了市场信心，除了强调中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间外，还为 未来的财政政策加力保留了空间。 新闻发布会之后，市场关注点继续聚焦在潜在推出的增量财政措施，在本次人 ...

Inflation Data - China's CPI in October increased by 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the Wind consensus expectation and previous value of 0.4%[1] - The CPI decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a slight expansion in the decline compared to the previous month[1] - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, also below the Wind consensus and previous value of -2.8%[1] - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, a significant narrowing from the previous decline of 0.6%[1] Core Inflation Insights - The core CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The year-on-year change in CPI was influenced by a tail effect of approximately -0.4 percentage points, compared to -0.5 percentage points last month[1] - The new price change impact for this year was about 0.7 percentage points, down from 0.9 percentage points last month[1] Sector-Specific Trends - Food inflation decreased significantly, with prices for pork, fresh vegetables, fruits, and eggs showing varying degrees of decline due to improved supply conditions[1] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was supported by a narrowing drop in prices for coal, black metals, and building materials[1] - The increase in accommodation and travel-related CPI during the National Day holiday contributed to a slight improvement in core CPI[1]

Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.75%-5.0% to 4.5%-4.75%, a decrease of 25 basis points, which is half of the reduction made in September[1] - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the Fed has decided to cut rates, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points after previously increasing rates by 525 basis points[4] - Market expectations were aligned with the Fed's decision, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by CME tools prior to the meeting[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.8%, supported by strong consumer spending, despite some weakness in manufacturing and employment data[3] - The PCE price index showed a decline, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) falling to 2.1% in September, while core PCE remained sticky at 2.7%[3] - Employment data indicated a cooling labor market, with October non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations and rising private layoff rates[3] Future Outlook - The Fed's future rate path remains uncertain due to mixed economic data and the recent U.S. election results, with a 70% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December[3] - The Fed's statement removed previous confidence in inflation moving towards the 2% target, reflecting recent inflation data fluctuations[5] - Powell indicated that the Fed is adopting a more neutral stance on future rate adjustments, with no preset path, depending on economic conditions[5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market risk appetite remained high, with a slight retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while risk assets and Chinese stocks performed well[6] - The report suggests that the outcome of the U.S. election and subsequent government policies will significantly influence future monetary policy decisions[6]

Trade Data Summary - In October, China's exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5% and previous value of 2.4%[1] - Imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[1] - The trade surplus for October was $95.72 billion, exceeding the expected $75.0 billion and previous value of $81.71 billion[1] Export Market Insights - Major export markets in October included ASEAN, the United States, and the European Union, with exports to ASEAN growing by 15.8%, to the U.S. by 8.1%, and to the EU by 12.7%[1] - Key products with significant export growth included grains, rare earths, and mobile phones, while ship exports saw a decline of over 30%[1] Import Dynamics - Despite a slight recovery in import momentum due to growth stabilization measures, high base effects from the previous year and low commodity prices led to a decline in import growth[1] - The import value for October was $213.34 billion, down from $222.00 billion in September[2] Future Considerations - The outcome of the U.S. presidential election may lead to potential tariff increases on Chinese imports, with proposed tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 10%-20% on other countries' goods by the Republican candidate[1] - Continued focus on domestic fiscal policies is expected to support improvements in domestic demand[1]

Employment Data - In October, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 jobs, a significant drop from the revised 223,000 jobs in September, marking the lowest level since 2020[3] - The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, with a slight increase to 4.14% when not rounded[3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-over-year, consistent with expectations, while the month-over-month increase was 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%[3] Sector Contributions - The healthcare and government sectors were the primary contributors to job growth in October, while the manufacturing sector saw a decline of 46,000 jobs due to the Boeing strike and hurricane impacts[3] - The private sector experienced a net loss of 28,000 jobs, contrasting with the government sector's addition of 40,000 jobs[3] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, traders increased bets on two interest rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November[3] - The probability of rate cuts in both November and December rose from 75% to 82%[3] Labor Market Insights - Job openings decreased unexpectedly, and the JOLTS private layoff rate increased, indicating a gradual softening in the U.S. labor market[3] - The labor force participation rate was reported at 62.6%, slightly down from previous months[5]

Global Market Overview - During the week of October 21-25, 2024, both global equity and bond markets experienced declines, while commodities saw an increase[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 17 basis points to 4.25%, putting pressure on the bond market[12] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.83%, reflecting a stronger dollar against other currencies[13] Domestic Market Performance - In the same week, domestic equity markets and commodities rose, while the bond market declined[15] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.17%, indicating positive market sentiment[16] - The domestic bond market saw a slight decline, with the overall bond market performance showing a decrease of 0.28%[18] Commodity Market Insights - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose by 1.84%, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index increased by 2.78% during the week[1] - Oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the overall commodity market rebound[14] Risk Factors - There is a risk that U.S. inflation data may not improve as expected, which could impact market stability[1] - The ongoing macroeconomic data releases are crucial for assessing future asset price movements[21]