| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高后大幅回落。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下 降，压力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着有色贵金 ...

本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请标明出处 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 2 不可作为投资依据，转载请标明出处 国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 12 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2026/1/28 3.138 0.22% 17.63% 19.54% 2026/1/29 3.196 1.85% 18.52% 19.90% 2026/1/30 3.147 -1.53% 18.80% 19.78% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 82.80% 86.90% 88.90% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 74.00% 79.30% 81.50% 近1年 次月IV分位数 94.00% 94.00% 93.60% 近2年 次月IV分位数 84.30% 85.40% 85.20% 2026年1月30日 金融期权波动率 0% 10% 20% 30% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 中性偏鸽的"降息暂停"，美元信用压力待扭转 ———2026 年 1 月份美联储议息会议点评 黄恬 期货投资咨询证号：Z0021089 郁泓佳 期货投资咨询号 Z0017641 事件：美东时间１月 28 日周三，美联储公布货币政策委员会 FOMC 的会议决定：将 联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在 3.50%至 3.75%不变。这是联储自 2025 年 9 月起连续三 次会议降息后首次暂停行动。2025年，联储共降息 75 个基点，每次均降 25 个基点。自 2024 年 9 月到 2025 年 12 月，联储这轮宽松周期合计降息 175 个基点。 点评： 一、会前关注点——暂停降息几无悬念 进入 12 月下旬，市场对日本政府的扩张性财政政策预期交易再度深化，日元进一步 走弱，日债联动美债收益率上行，最终出现美日联合干预汇市的情景。结合特朗普的相关 表态和近期的对外政策波动，令美元指数快速下跌至 96 附近。美元走弱意味着大类资产 仍受益于流动性宽松的延续。针对本次会议，我们认为有两方面焦点值得关注：首先，在 暂停降息已被交易的情况下,鲍威尔的表态是偏鹰还是偏鸽。美联储是否会继续维护市 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高后大幅回落。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下 降，压力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着有色贵金 ...

| 国校期货 11 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月30日 | | 黄金 | 白银 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅超过10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一周,美伊 依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击，不过特朗普表示计划与伊朗进行对话。此外特朗普称利率应下 降2到3个百分点，计划今晚公布美联储主席人选。市场消息称此前偏鹰派的沃什可能超出市场预期的成为新 任主席。短期信息繁杂,市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参与。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业等 | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜减仓跌至MA20日均线,关注波幅收窄情况。SMM现铜104410元,上海铜贴水150元,现货价差已转为国 内高于LME、LME高于美盘的特点。国内节前刚性备货,社库咯减至32.28万 ...

(原油) 昨夜油价纷纷冲高，SC一度涨近7%，随后盘中回吐大幅涨幅。美国总统特朗普称正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击，未作出最终决定。伊外交部长阿拉格齐同日表示，伊朗随时准备对侵犯行为作出回 应。市场担忧伊朗对其邻国发起反击或甚至关闭霍尔木兹海峡。欧盟理事会29日发布公报说，决定 对伊朗内政部长伊斯坎德尔。莫梅尼等15名官员和6个实体实施制裁，并已决定将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队列为恐怖组织。泽连斯基表示就能源基础设施达成的停火将从29日夜间开始生效。地缘局势走向 扑朔迷离叠加基本面累库压制仍在,警惕油价大幅波动风险。 【责金属】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅接近10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一 周，美伊依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击。此外特朗普即将公布美联储主席人选并呼吁 太幅降息，美国政府面临再度关门风险。短期市场信息繁杂，市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参 与。 (铜) 周四全日铜价剧烈波动，伦铜盘中最大涨幅超过10%，兑现部分海外机构1.4万美元及以上目标位。 铜价由资金与情绪引导,关注今日国内现货与贴水幅度,现货价差已转为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Geopolitical situations are complex and volatile, affecting multiple commodity markets. For example, the tension between the US and Iran impacts oil, fuel oil, and related energy - related products. The situation in Ukraine also adds to the uncertainty in the market [1][2][21]. - Many commodity markets are influenced by a combination of supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For instance, in the metals market, prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity, and short - term speculative sentiment [3][4][7]. - Some markets are expected to be in a state of shock or have limited upward/downward space due to various factors such as policy, seasonality, and demand - supply imbalances [11][12][13]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices fluctuated sharply last night. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the EU's sanctions on Iran have increased market concerns. The cease - fire in energy infrastructure may bring some stability, but the market remains volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by rising geopolitical risks, they followed crude oil to rise significantly. The high - sulfur fuel oil shows strong performance due to tight spot supply, while the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by cost and component factors. The market is expected to follow crude oil and maintain a strong shock, with the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [21]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented on Friday. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still have upward space in the short term [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1618 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the inventory increased. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still rise in the short term [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they fluctuated violently, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 10%. Market focus is on geopolitical changes. Short - term market information is complex, and the risk of market fluctuations is high [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price fluctuated violently on Thursday, with the maximum intraday increase of LME copper exceeding 10%. It is guided by funds and emotions. Pay attention to the domestic spot and discount range [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals followed precious metals to fall. The spot premium and discount in some regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The market is dominated by short - term sentiment, and the volatility is high [4]. - **Zinc**: After the sharp fall of gold and silver at night, the long positions in the non - ferrous sector took profits, and the price of SHFE zinc closed with a long upper shadow. The short - term has an adjustment demand, and there is an opportunity for short - allocation after the high - level adjustment is sufficient [7]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak adjustment under over - supply. Benefiting from the strong bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, it rebounds, but the actual demand is weak, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level. The spot price of stainless steel rose, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction was weak. The inventory of steel mills is still at a low level, and traders are willing to support the price [9]. - **Tin**: Compared with surrounding varieties, the price performance is restrained. Pay attention to the domestic spot quotation and track the social inventory. It is recommended to participate in the short - call option of the 2603 contract [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rebounded. The spot price of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounded. The power cost in some areas decreased, but the price of semi - coke increased slightly. The demand has some resilience, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. - **Rare Earth Metals**: Not mentioned in the report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The rise in oil prices strengthens the cost support. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, but the downstream is more cautious. The supply and demand of polyethylene and polypropylene have different characteristics, and the new order follow - up is insufficient [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a strong trend at night. The inventory in warehouses in East and South China increased, and the export signing slowed down. The cost support of calcium carbide became stronger. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine was strong. The industry is under high - pressure inventory, and the follow - up production reduction needs to be tracked [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Driven by the strong rise in oil prices, they rose again. In the first half of the year, PX can be over - allocated, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for long - position operations based on PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, and the price encountered resistance at the 4000 mark. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. - **Urea**: Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and the large - scale spring ploughing fertilizer demand has not started. The supply pressure remains, and the market continues to oscillate strongly within the range [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, it rose significantly at night. The overseas device operation rate is low, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Although there are some negative factors, the short - term market is expected to run strongly [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price followed the oil price and ran strongly. The inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The demand increased due to the improvement of downstream profits and the increase in device operation rates [25]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene support the cost. The domestic supply has declined, and the downstream demand has decreased steadily. There is short - term price pressure [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Driven by the drought in Argentina and the weakening of the US dollar, US soybeans continue to oscillate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, which may impact the domestic market [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by the spread of re - inflation trading in commodities, they are boosted. The short - term price volatility risk should be noted. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved marginally, and the policies of Indonesia and the US are beneficial to the price [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The zero - pressing of rapeseed in domestic coastal oil mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. Although affected by geopolitics and policies, the import is expected to be looser after March, and the short - term upward space is limited [37]. - **Corn**: The spot price in Northeast China and North Ports is stable, and the price of some Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is weak, reflecting the expected weakening of the spot market. Although the inventory of laying hens will decline in the first half of 2026, the short - term price may fall after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the trading rhythm [41]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply and sales are booming, but the downstream order demand is average. Pay attention to the pressure around 15,000 yuan and the change in imports [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. Although the current production in Guangxi is slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 crushing season, and the short - term price faces pressure [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillates. The Spring Festival stocking is at a peak, but the quality of apples is poor and the purchase price is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The market focuses on demand [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand has increased year - on - year, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has continued to accumulate [46]. Livestock - **Hogs**: The futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the price may hit a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The three major A - share indexes rose and fell differently yesterday. The futures indexes also showed different trends. The A - share market is expected to change from a unilateral rapid rise to an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and economic policies [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 29, 2026, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The market sentiment of going long continues, but the trading is divided. The short - term is expected to continue the box - type shock. Pay attention to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the yield curve [48].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降,压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳,下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大,基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口维持高位 ...