Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The listing of the monthly average price futures of three chemical products fills the gap in domestic average price risk management tools. The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are in a bearish pattern, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, and the monthly average price will also show the same trend. PVC monthly average price futures are expected to operate in the bottom range [1][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New Product Listing - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, with night trading. The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on that day [1] 2. Continuation of the Bearish Pattern in Plastics and Polypropylene - The decline in plastic and polypropylene futures prices is driven by three factors: weak cost support, new supply capacity release, and insufficient demand. The prices have been in a downward trend since late November and early December 2024, with a short - term rebound in the middle. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pressure of polyethylene and polypropylene is difficult to ease, and the prices are expected to rise first and then fall. The recommended strategies include short - selling at high levels, inter - period arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2604F; long PP2602F and short PP2604F), and different delivery method arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2602; long PP2602F and short PP2602) [3][4][6] 3. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures May Operate in the Bottom Range - PVC is in a pattern of high supply and low demand, with continuous inventory accumulation and high social inventory. The supply pressure is still large, and the production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the export may face pressure due to anti - dumping policies. It is expected that the monthly average price futures will operate in the bottom range [7][8]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续回调,国际金价跌破4000美元。中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识，美国和多 个国家也相继达成部分贸易协议,避险情绪有所降温,贵金属或将迎来月度级别调整构筑高位震荡平台，为 未来走势提供基础。贵金属中长期逻辑稳固,短期波动风险较高,建议耐心等待企稳后再参与机会。本周重 点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领导人峰会。 ★凯投宏观:下调黄金价格预期,预计到2026年底黄金价格将跌至每盎司3,500美元。 ★路透调查:预计2026年黄金均价为每盎司4275美元，白银均价为每盎司50美元。 ★菲律宾央行官员：现在是时候在黄金上获利了结。菲律宾央行 ...

(原油) 昨日布伦特12合约涨0.09%，有消息称本周日0PEC+会议将决定在12月进一步增产，此前原油因俄罗 斯制裁升级及中美贸易谈判积极信号而引发的乐观情绪受到抑制。原油市场中期供需宽松压力不 变，且考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们认为短期原油震荡偏强、 但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的组合。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。周末中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,短期风险偏好向好, 贯金属或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领 导人峰会。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (锌) 外盘低库存，伦锌继续偏强运行，锌锭现货出口窗口打开，国内贸易商和炼厂积极寻求出口，外盘 带动内盘跟涨。国内炼厂冬储在即,海外炼厂利润修复后存增产预期，11月内外矿TC齐转降，四季 度沪锌不做空头配置。短期消费偏弱，反弹动力来自出口和成本支撑，沪锌上方暂看2.3万元/吨压 力位。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，在中美商务谈判乐观气氛引导下，内外铜价逼近纪录位置。同时，联储再 次兑现降息动 ...

今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国CPI—(1)美国劳工部数据称,美国9月 CPI同比上涨3.0%,环比上涨0.3%,核心CPI同比上涨3.0%,环 比上涨0.2%。②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:数据"非常出色"，通胀正在放缓，美联储压力减 轻。③美国白宫:下个月可能无法公布通胀数据,为史上首次。 ★贸易协议——1美国与泰国签署关键矿物协议,并将维持对泰国19%的关税;②特朗普与巴西总统会晤,双 方将进行经贸谈判,巴方要求在谈判过程中暂停关税;3美国与马来西亚签署贸易协议和关键矿产协议; ...

| 国投期货 Millio | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年10月27日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 上周国际油价低位反弹,布伦特12合约涨7.09%,日内SC12合约收涨0.58%。欧美对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁令加沙 一阶段停火协议以来的地缘风险降温再次出现转折,而上周中美马来会谈亦就出口管制、对等关税暂停延期、 芬太尼、船舶收费等议题形成初步共识,为本周中美元首的韩国会晤奠定积极基础,贸易战风险降温进一步增 加油市乐观情绪。但考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和亦限制了地缘犹动的影响上限,我们认为短期原油震荡偏 强、但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略 ...

| 11/11/2 | > 國技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月27日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货销售基差多数暂稳；2025/26北疆机采4129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+900~1050，较多销售基差在GF01+1050及以上，不含淡点污、疆内自提。现货成交一般。新疆籽棉收购价 格稳中偏强,导致新棉成本有所抬升,对盘面形成一定支撑,目前北疆收购渐近尾声,南疆仍在继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified in the report [1] - Methanol: Not specified in the report [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified in the report [1] - Styrene: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1][9] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Plastic: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PVC: Not specified in the report [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - PX: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PTA: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Glass: Not specified in the report [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment. For example, short - term oil price fluctuations affect the cost of some products, and supply - side changes and downstream demand trends determine the price trends of different products [2][3][5] - Different products have different price trends and investment suggestions. Some products are expected to have long - term downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term rebounds due to certain events but still face long - term challenges [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly. Short - term oil price increases support costs, but supply pressure is difficult to relieve due to expected increases in supply [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures close slightly higher. For polyethylene, domestic supply increases, demand has both positive and negative factors, and cost and macro - news support the market. For polypropylene, supply is abundant, and downstream demand provides limited support [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of traditional benzene is weak. Port inventory is decreasing, but mid - term import pressure is high. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average. Short - term oil price rebounds relieve cost pressure, but long - term price is suppressed by high inventory [3] 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak in the morning and rebound in the afternoon. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. Supply pressure is high. Based on the industry meeting news, there is an expectation of "anti - involution" [5] - Ethylene glycol production increases. The polyester industry chain rebounds, driving ethylene glycol up. Short - term negatives weaken, but mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [5] - Short - fiber has a good spot pattern, but may accumulate inventory again. Bottle - chip demand is weak, and long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures remain at a low level. Port inventory increases slightly, and the market is likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [6] - Urea price increase lacks momentum. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound at low prices [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC price rises slightly at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range [7] - Caustic soda price fluctuates at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is average, so the price is expected to remain low [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price fluctuates strongly. Cost increases, supply is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling near the cost of traditional soda ash [8] - Glass price fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is increasing, and the price decline may be limited due to low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 10 月 27 日 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行周报（20250728 -20250801）-非农数据不及预期 权益资 产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20250804 -20250808）-新一轮关税生效 权益资产 价格上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250811 -20250815）-俄美首脑会晤未达成协议 权益资产续涨 大类资产运行周报（20250818 -20250822）-鲍威尔表态偏鸽 美元指数 偏弱运行 大类资产运行周报（20250825 -20250829）-美联储独立性面临挑战 贵 金属价格收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250901 -20250905）- 8 月非农不及预期 权益资 产整体收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250908 -20250912）-美国通胀数据温和回升 风 险资产上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250915 -20250919）-美联储如期降息 美股周度 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean No. 1, Egg [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Live Pig [1] - **Neutral Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] Core Views - The overall supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not a major issue, but if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates and persists, the supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year [3]. - The prices of rapeseed oil are expected to face pressure due to the risk of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed meal may be boosted by the increase in oilseed prices in the short term [7]. - Corn prices are expected to continue their weak performance at the bottom, and the timing of the inflection point remains unclear [8]. - After the rebound of pig prices, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year [9]. - Egg prices may experience a decline in the medium term, and short - term risk avoidance is necessary [10]. Summary by Category Soybean No. 1 - The price of domestic soybeans has pulled back from its high, and there has been some profit - taking after the recent rebound. The spot market has active participants in acquisitions, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has decreased. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of domestic soybean spot and policies at home and abroad [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Last week, the futures contract of Dalian soybeans rebounded from the bottom with a large reduction in positions. The price of US soybeans jumped on Monday. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting at the end of the month [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the market sentiment for US agricultural product exports has improved. The price of US soybean futures has risen, and the import cost has increased slightly. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is poor. The price of soybean oil is stronger than that of soybean meal and palm oil. Attention should be paid to the performance of the Brazilian soybean premium market [4]. - The futures price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and the price of palm oil may face pressure in the short term. In the long term, there is still support for palm oil prices, and medium - to long - term investors can consider buying vegetable oils at low prices [6]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relationships are the most important variables in the oilseed market. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is expected to remain low, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in East China may increase. Rapeseed oil prices are expected to face pressure, while rapeseed meal may be boosted in the short term [7]. Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn decreased by 1.03% with an increase in positions. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the price rebound has ended. New grain in Jilin may be concentrated on the market again, and the price in Shandong continues to weaken. The downstream demand remains at a rigid level [8]. Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, and the futures price has followed suit. Although the supply pressure is still high, the price difference between fattening pigs has promoted second - round fattening and pen - holding behavior. After the rebound, a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. Egg - The spot price of eggs has increased significantly, and the near - month futures contract has followed suit. The short - term risk of further price increases should be avoided, and in the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens. There is also potential pressure from cold - stored eggs on the spot market [10].