1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな女' [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' and 'ななな' [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, represented by '文文文' [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な☆☆' [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, represented by '立☆☆' [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market continues to have a narrow - range shock, and it is advisable to continue the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then the price may rise again based on the demand expectations [2]. - The aluminum market has a weak fundamental situation, with inventory performance significantly weaker than in previous years. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price fluctuations but has weak follow - up ability. The alumina market has a reduced operating capacity and production, but the oversupply prospect remains unchanged [3]. - The zinc market has a short - term structural contradiction, with the external market being strong and the export window about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a rebound in nickel prices but weak trading. The social inventory continues to increase, and the market is mainly driven by policy sentiment [7]. - The tin market continues to rebound with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply and consumption trends [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a rebound but weak trading. The inventory structure has changed, and there is a high inventory in the mid - stream. The short - term uncertainty is high [9]. - The industrial silicon market price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply is in a phased contraction, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in futures prices with narrowed fluctuations. The production decreases, and the market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper has had a narrow - range shock for three consecutive trading days, and the 0 - 1 month spread has expanded to 440 yuan. It is recommended to follow the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then it may rise again based on demand expectations [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 190 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 40 yuan respectively. The aluminum bar processing fee is less than 100 yuan. The inventory is significantly weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price but has weak follow - up ability. The domestic alumina operating capacity drops to around 9400 yuan, with a phased production decline, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Zinc - The SMM zinc average price is 24460 yuan/ton, with a real - time premium of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The spot trading is light. There is a short - term structural contradiction, the external market is strong, and the zinc ingot export window is about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is at a low level. The production cuts of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increase, and most downstream enterprises are on holiday. The spot market shows a situation of double - decline in supply and demand. The SMM1 aluminum average price is 16575 yuan/ton, and the discount to the near - month contract narrows to 35 yuan/ton. The overseas aluminum ingots are in surplus, and the import window remains open. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level within the price range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The news about the Indonesian quota causes speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continues to increase. The market confidence declines, and the transaction is light. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increases by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for a clear situation [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to rebound, with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. The overseas LME tin inventory continues to increase, and the LME spot discount is 159 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply trend and peak - season consumption rhythm [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate rebounds, but the market trading is light. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase. The total market inventory decreases by 2000 tons to 105,000 tons. The short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply has a phased contraction, but there is a复产 expectation after the festival. The downstream polysilicon is expected to reduce production by more than 20,000 tons, and the organic silicon may reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 90,000 tons if the emission reduction target is implemented. The December export volume is 59,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8%. The social inventory rises to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rise slightly, and the market fluctuations narrow. The industry's fully - cost - inclusive tax for silicon materials is about 54,125 yuan/ton. The February production decreases by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by 3%. The market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The latest silicon material manufacturer inventory is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]

| | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年02月11日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 2月10日，特朗普表示若与伊朗的谈判未能取得进展。美方考虑向中东地区再派遣一支航母打击群，为潜在军事 行动做准备。面对美国进一步施压，伊朗方面亦展现强硬立场。双方在伊朗铂浓缩权利等问题上分歧显著。僵 局持续，短期内对峙局面难以突破。受谈判前景不明与地缘紧张局势持续影响，布伦特原油价格在68-70美元/ 桶区间大幅波动,市场持续计入地缘政治风险溢价。预计油价将保持高波动性,且仍蕴含显著的地缘政治风险 溢价。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油市场走势仍紧密跟随地缘局势波动。昨日特朗普表示，若美伊谈判无进展，可能向中东增派航母打 击群，此举加剧了美伊关系的不确定性,市场持续计价地缘政治风险。受此影响，今日高低硫燃料油价格均呈 ...

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油市场走势仍紧密跟随地缘局势波动。昨日特朗普表示，若美伊谈判无进展，可能向中东增派航母打 击群，此举加剧了美伊关系的不确定性,市场持续计价地缘政治风险。受此影响，今日高低硫燃料油价格均呈 现偏强运行。高疏现货仍显韧性,但现货交投活跃度有所降温,市场结构出现边际软化。后市走向的核心仍在 于地缘局势演变;当前价格已处于风险溢价注入后的相对高位,若冲突升级推动供应中断预期兑现,则价格有 望维持强势;反之,若局势缓和,在中期原料供应趋于宽松的背景下,价格可能转向承压。低硫市场方面,现 货到港量维持充裕。随着春节假期临近,亚洲地区航运需求预计季节性回落。供应端的核心矛盾依然在于海外 炼厂的边际增量,尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCG装置回归可能进一步推迟,将继续带来供应压力。 【沥青】 | | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年02月11日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-587 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。春节备货进入尾声,产区冷库成交量逐渐下降。需求方面,整体销售情况良好。库存方 面,卓创的数据显示，截至2月5日,全国冷库苹果库存为563.51万吨,同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨,同比下 降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转向需求。今年苹果质量较差，但是收购价格较高， ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。随着春节临近，螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量短期趋稳, 库存小幅累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大， 基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。持续调整后盘面稍 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, PTA, PVC, and Soda Ash: Bullish trend, with relatively clear long - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, and Glass: Short - term long/short trends in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with relatively clear short - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: Slightly bullish, with a driving force for price increase, but poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows different trends in various sectors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and geopolitical situations. Investment opportunities and risks coexist in different products [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - PE market may have a slightly weakening trend in the short term due to increased supply and weakened demand [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak position due to reduced demand and increased supply expectations [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded, with PX having more long - term opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently facing weak demand and falling processing margins. PTA is experiencing inventory accumulation, and a 250 - million - ton device shutdown will ease the pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol supply has shrunk, and prices have rebounded. It may improve in the second quarter, but is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak, and prices follow raw materials [3] - Bottle chips' processing margins have recovered, but long - term production capacity pressure remains. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices have risen, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve after the Spring Festival [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fundamentals are still weak, but short - term prices are affected by geopolitical situations. It may gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea prices are stable, and the market is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC is expected to rise in price due to cost support and export demand. Consider buying at low prices [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream negative feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is facing supply - demand surplus pressure in the long term. Consider short - selling on rebounds and holding long - glass and short - soda - ash positions [8] - Glass may experience seasonal inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand pattern may improve. Consider buying at low - valued structural positions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related trends over different time periods. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 50ETF price changed from 3.161 to 3.170, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.48%, 0.28%, and 0.00%. The corresponding monthly IVs were 17.21%, 16.27%, and 17.51%, and the next - month IVs were 17.34%, 16.57%, and 16.75% [1]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are provided, with the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 77.90%, 69.70%, and 80.40% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 91.85, with previous values of 94.71 (yesterday), 92.27 (two days ago), 99.29 (three days ago), and 98.62 (four days ago) [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 6 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed, with the price on February 11 being 4.733. The daily price changes and corresponding monthly and next - month IVs are provided. For example, on February 9, the price was 4.727, with a 1.68% change, monthly IV of 16.56%, and next - month IV of 17.06% [3]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 68.90%, 54.20%, etc. [3]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 6, 2026, was 111.30, with previous values also provided [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.928 to 4.920, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.61%, monthly IV was 18.23%, and next - month IV was 17.91% [6]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 78.70%, 69.70%, etc. [6]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 9, 2026, was 107.99, with previous values available [10]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 8.395 to 8.411, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.17%, monthly IV was 27.08%, and next - month IV was 26.47% [12]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are provided, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 93.40%, 88.50%, etc. [12]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 108.27, with previous values also presented [15]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 10 - 12, 2026, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed, with the price on February 12 being 3.338. The daily price changes and corresponding monthly and next - month IVs are shown. For example, on February 10, the price change was - 0.24%, monthly IV was 27.32%, and next - month IV was 26.88% [20]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 94.20%, 88.10%, etc. [20]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 10, 2026, was 113.89, with previous values available [27]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 3.321 to 3.273, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 2.85%, monthly IV was 27.90%, and next - month IV was 28.10% [28]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 66.50%, 64.00%, etc. [28]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 97.50, with previous values also provided [34]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.494 to 3.462, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 1.96%, monthly IV was 22.64%, and next - month IV was 22.48% [38]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 75.10%, 68.10%, etc. [38]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 106.18, with previous values available [42]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.535 to 1.533, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 2.40%, monthly IV was 33.05%, and next - month IV was 32.07% [48]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 67.30%, 67.60%, etc. [48]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 95.49, with previous values also provided [50]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the STAR 50ETF price changed from 1.486 to 1.486, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.48%, monthly IV was 34.38%, and next - month IV was 32.88% [54]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 62.80%, 62.70%, etc. [54]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 92.95, with previous values available [61]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 300 Index price changed from 4719.056 to 4713.819, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.63%, monthly IV was 18.70%, and next - month IV was 18.21% [66]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 86.50%, 73.80%, etc. [66]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 100.38, with previous values also provided [69]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the 1000 Index price changed from 8233.778 to 8239.513, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For example, on February 9, the price change was 2.26%, monthly IV was 27.20%, and next - month IV was 26.14% [70]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are given, like the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 91.80%, 78.70%, etc. [70]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 113.30, with previous values available [75]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From February 9 - 11, 2026, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 3081.779 to 3088.457, with corresponding daily price changes and monthly and next - month IVs. For instance, on February 9, the price change was 1.45%, monthly IV was 17.74%, and next - month IV was 66.58% [80]. - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year quantiles of the current - month IV and next - month IV are presented, such as the 1 - year current - month IV quantiles being 82.00%, 77.10%, etc. [80]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on February 11, 2026, was 100.49, with previous values also provided [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

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国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/2/10 黑色板块动量小幅下降 商品本周占比变化不大,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度企稳回升,黑色 和农产品板块受截面轮动影响下降。目 前截面偏强的板块是有色和化工,截面 偏弱的板块是黑色。具体来看,黄金时 序出现动量反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白 银的持仓量小幅回升。有色板块短周期 动量上升,期限结构分化收窄,铝和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际回 落,截面上看螺纹偏弱。能化板块中短 周期动量截面分化扩大,苯乙烯截面偏 强纯碱偏弱。农产品方面,短周期动量 没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持中性以 下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | -0.11 | 0.64 | | 需求 | 0.00 | -0.45 | | 库存 | -0.17 | 0.01 | | 价差 | -0.02 | 0.73 | | 大类累加 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.11%,库存因子下行0.17%,价差因子 走低0.02%,合成因子下行0.13%,本周 综合 ...