| | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 春节期间,国际油价持续走高,布伦特原油主力合约逼近72美元/桶,WTI原油最高触及67美元/桶,均创下2025 年8月以来新高。本轮上涨始于美伊第二轮谈判后局势未缓反趋紧张,地缘风险升温：随后2月20日EIA数据显示 美国原油及汽油库存超预期去库,进一步强化了涨势。当前美伊对峙持续升级,油价在阶段性高位维持强势, 节后内盘SC期货有所补涨。美国保持军事威慑但目前冲突整体仍在可控范围。若后续局势演变为有限打击或全 面失控，原油有望获得更高地缘溢价。未来两周将是美伊走向关键窗口，地缘政治脉冲仍将主导油价波动。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 | | | | 原油 | ★☆★ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年02月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 贵金属日报 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 美元的持续反弹可能也将遏制贵金属反弹空间,白银的大幅波动主要体现的是波动率的双向扫动,无明确有 力的逻辑驱动,预计在伊朗事宜落地前偏强震荡,而落地后偏弱震荡。美联储方面继续观察美国经济数据, 特别是非农和通胀数据及相应联储官员评论。 节中宏观局势带动金银拉升, 铂、把投资溢价空间再打开。全球包主要供应商诺尔里斯克2026年纪产量预期 同比下调11%，把基本面向好修复。节后广期所铂把高开震荡，但市场等待非农数据等以研判美联储降息动 线,资金入场情谨慎,盘面增仓有限。技术面看,外盘钩把中线上行趋势未证伪,但反弹20日均线暂承压, 短期方向性稍欠明朗,观望以待明朗。 美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突风险正以前所未有的速度攀升。五角大楼罕见地向特朗普总统发出了严厉警告， 明确指出针对伊朗的旷日持久的军事行动将带来难以估量的风险，包括美军及其盟友的严重伤亡、防空系统 的耗尽以及兵力的不堪重负。据报道,正在研究的打击方案范围极广,从有限的打击到旨在推翻政权的为期 数天的空袭行动,每一种选择都伴随着巨大的代价。几乎在同一时间,美国国务院下令从美国驻贝鲁特大使 ...

| | | | 原油 | ★☆★ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年02月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 春节期间,国际油价持续走高,布伦特原油主力合约逼近72美元/桶,WTI原油最高触及67美元/桶,均创下2025 年8月以来新高。本轮上涨始于美伊第二轮谈判后局势未缓反趋紧张,地缘风险升温：随后2月20日EIA数据显示 美国原油及汽油库存超预期去库,进一步强化了涨势。当前美伊对峙持续升级,油价在阶段性高位维持强势, 节后内盘SC期货有所补涨。美国保持军事威慑但目前冲突整体仍在可控范围。若后续局势演变为有限打击或全 面失控，原油有望获得更高地缘溢价。未来两周将是美伊走向关键窗口，地缘政治脉冲仍将主导油价波动。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 | | | 春节假期期间,受美伊冲突持续发酵推动,外盘原油期货大幅上涨。今日开盘后,燃料油与低 ...

| | | 铁矿 今日盘面下跌。 供应方面，全球发运环比大幅增加，国内港口库存处于历史高位，市场对于铁矿供应过剩的担忧较重。需 求方面，节前铁水产量低位小幅增加，预计节后维持复产趋势，并目经过假期的消耗后也存在一定补库需求。整体来看，铁矿 石需求存在边际改善的预期，但是由于供应过剩的压力相对更大，盘面价格依然承压，未来继续关注节后终端需求的恢复情况 和商品市场整体情绪的变化。 【焦炭】 日内价格继续下行。焦化利润一般，日产微降。焦炭库存小幅增加，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游 铁水维持淡季水平，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦炭盘面升水，焦煤盘面对蒙煤升水，市场对"反内 卷关干策策有一定预期，在市场整体情绪影响下，大概率宽幅震荡为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【焦煤】 | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月24日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 ...

| | | 国产大豆期货方面表现为减仓小幅回调。国产大豆现货方面较之节前小幅上涨。国产大豆和进口大豆价差在2月 份快速扩大之后，今日从高位开始回调。美盘太豆价格从近期的高点回落，春节期间美国生柴政策预期乐观以 及美豆新作平衡表供需结构同比收紧，外盘表现偏强。不过美国关税政策存在抗动,虽然最高法院驳回了美国 总统此前的关税计划,但随后美总统宣布将全球进口商品临时关税提高至15%,因此对于美豆的出口需求方面产 生了新的变数。后续持续关注政策端的导向。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 美国时间周二，总统特朗普新推出的10%的全球关税开始生效,这标志着白宫开始采取行动,以延续特朗普的贸 易议程，日前特朗普威胁要将税率提高至15%、但截至10%的税率生效之时，尚未正式发布行政令提高税率。今 日美豆受此拖累走弱，连粕亦跟随下跌。春节假期美豆延续偏强格局，短期美豆出口数据以及压榨数据表现较 好,继续提振美豆价格。对于26/27年度美豆的供需平衡表展望,显示出大豆面积同比增加,单产处于历史高 位，出口和压榨均同比增长，大豆期末库存微增，库存消费比同比下降，奠定了新一年度的供需结构同比收紧 的状态,美国市场呈现油强于粕的状态。 【豆油& ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | な☆☆ | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | な女女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 节后首日沪铜加权增仓收阳,价格博弈在中短期均线密集区。国内现铜报101455元,上海升水250元,广东贴水 扩至150元，节后 ...

两烯期货主力合约日内高开上行收涨，盘中下探5日均线获支撑。虽节中短停装置已恢复重启,但考虑到市场供 应面压力可控,下游工厂刚需跟进,且成本面影响较大,价格走势偏强。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。油价假期期间上行对聚烯烃盘面形成明显提标，目前市场主要交易 成本端逻辑。从基本面而言,节后归来,下游工厂尚未完全复工,市场交投气氛偏淡,后续随着下游客户返 市，需求端将逐渐恢复。假期内库存累积至高位，供应端压力增加,市场观望情绪浓厚。 | | 国际大博 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月24日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★ ...

| | | | Mille | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月24日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天棉花大幅增仓上涨，现货基差稳中略增;假期美棉有所上涨，叠加国内节后商品整体偏强的表观,对于郑棉也有所推动。 国内商业库存消化良好,未来棉花供给偏紧的预期仍在延续,尤其是新疆商业库存降速较快。截至一月底,国内棉花商业库存 为578.87万吨，同比增加4.2万吨，其中新疆商业库存为445.81万吨，同比减少10.25 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 春节期间国际油价持续走高，Brent原油主力合约最高通近72美元/桶，WTI原油主力合约最高触及 67美元/桶,双双升至2025年8月以来新高。假期期间美伊对诗持续升温,国际油价在地缘风险助推 下录得阶段性新高后，仍维持强势表现。本轮地缘溢价的回归，核心在于霍尔木兹海峡的脆弱性被 再度激活。美伊新一轮谈判定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。未来两周将是决定局势走向的关键窗口, 地缘政治脉冲仍将主导原油市场波动。 (责金属) 【锌】 节中伦锌高位震荡，对节后沪锌走势指引性有限。美伊局势牵动市场，贵金属强势反弹，有色板块 仍具抗跌性，节后短期供大于求之下，沪锌反弹动能弱,但tc低位未见明显反弹，成本支撑强，沪 锌也难深跌，暂看2.4-2.5万元/吨高位震荡。年内供大于求判断不改,视tc回升为高位空配介入时 机。 春节期间责金属表现强势。美国最高法院裁定政府大规模关税政策违法,但特朗普将以其他方式维 持贸易高压。美伊谈判无实质性进展,特朗普表示协议达成的时间窗口至多10-15天,消息称美方 可能在未来几天对伊实施初步打击。短期风险事件关键节点，贵金属强势或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].