| >国技期货 111 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月28日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金核心逻辑稳固，金银比大幅走低后白银风险较 高。特朗普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队,但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引,美联储维持利率不变已形成共识,重点关注鲍威尔讲话。 铂纪盘面高波动,资金倾向短线操作,铂兜价格冲高回落,5日均线附近暂时止跌,大方向上看,资金逢低 做多倾向依然明显。铂把价差190元/ ...

| | | | mile | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年01月28日 | 操作评级 | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | ☆☆☆ | 原油 | | F3066912 Z0016785 | ★☆★ | 燃料油 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | 李海群 中级分析师 | ★☆☆ | | 沥青 | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | 010-58747784 | | | 【原油】 价大幅反弹,Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶,WTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能源基础设施和电网 承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日,约占全国产量的15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前 恢复不到一半的正常产量,该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏 利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构 平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压力显著,市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动,供需宽松 始终是压制油价上行空间的长期因素。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/1/27 能源板块时序动量边际下降 商品本周多空占比变化不大。主要表现 贵金属因子强度维持高位,能源板块小 幅回落,农产品板块仍然维持中性偏弱 格局,目前,截面偏强的板块是贵金 属,截面偏弱的是黑色和农产品。具体 来看,黄金时序动量小幅回升,白银的 持仓量继续边际上升。有色板块短周期 动量回升,期限结构分化收窄,铜和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际小幅 回落,截面上螺纹偏强焦炭偏空。能化 板块短周期动量截面分化收窄,整体时 序动量下降。农产品方面,大部分品种 短周期动量没有发生明显反转,棕榈油 持仓量上升。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 佛诗 | 1.05 | 1.05 | | 需求 | 0.00 | 0.47 | | 库存 | 1.12 | 1.46 | | 价差 | 0.00 | 0.22 | | 大类累加 | 0.83 | 1.18 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走强 1.05%,库存因子走高1.12%,合成因子 上行0.83%,本周综合信号多头。基本面 因子上 ...

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| Millio | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月27日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 纯菜 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 绅碱 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。基本面上,期货盘面表现强势,叠加局部下游补库,带动买盘积极性。丙烯 ...

| œ œ aple œ 1 | | --- | | 1 - | | A œ | | œ | | 17 | | 7 2 | | 1 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | 女女女 | 能源日报 2026年01月27日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场正处地缘风险溢价与供应过剩甚本面的拉锯中。美国对伊朗制裁升级并将航母部署中东引发市场 担忧。OPEC+称预计将在2月1日的会议上维持3月原油产量稳定的计划。其中一位代表表示，目前尚无远参表费明 需要针对本月委内瑞拉和伊朗的动荡事件作出反应。另一位代表指出,尽管如此,若出现重大的供应中断，仍 可能促使OPEC+增加产量。202601全球原油市场库存压力显著，市场谨慎对待地缘犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油 份涨幅的长期因素，布伦特原油反弹至65美元/桶,WTI反弹至61美元/桶关键位置后上行动能减 ...

夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月28日 (原油) (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，市场活跃度不高。宏观驱动且价格处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季 节性表现将持续弱于往年。 ...

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月27日 (原油) 当前原油市场正处地缘风险溢价与供应过剩基本面的拉锯中。 美财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一 轮制裁措施，增加了8个实体和9艘油轮。美国对伊朗制裁升级并将航母部署中东引发市场担忧。 OPEC+称预计将在2月1日的会议上维持3月原油产量稳定的计划。其中一位代表表示，目前尚无迹象 表明需要针对本月委内瑞拉和伊朗的动荡事件作出反应。另一位代表指出,尽管如此,若出现重大 的供应中断，仍可能促使OPEC+增加产量。2026Q1全球原油市场库存压力显著，市场谨慎对待地缘 犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价涨幅的长期因素，布伦特原油反弹至65美元/桶，WT1反弹至61美 元/桶关键位置，后续密切关注伊朗冲突是否演变成对原油供应产生实际威胁。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属冲高回落，盘中波动剧烈。黄金、白银分别突破5000美元/盎司和100美元/盎司整数关 口并继续极致化演绎后警惕资金转向，等待波动率下降后再参与为宜。关注本周美联储会议、中东 局势演绎以及美国政府再度关门风险。 (铜) 隔夜美盘铜尾盘转跌，贵金属快速回吐激烈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - **New Energy - Related Materials**: - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - **Building Materials and Fuels**: - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - **Asphalt**: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].