Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market anticipates a continued increase in domestic copper inventories during the holiday, and there is a risk of the copper price adjusting to the MA60 moving average. The aluminum market has adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of aluminum both decline during the long holiday. The zinc market is expected to be high - volatile in the short term, with a supply - demand imbalance. The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and the tin market awaits post - holiday supply and consumption guidance. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term uncertainty, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The polysilicon market price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On the last trading day before the holiday, some buyers of Shanghai copper were active below the MA40 moving average. The market expects domestic copper inventories to continue to accumulate during the holiday. There is a risk of the copper price adjusting to the MA60 moving average, and the inter - period reverse arbitrage strategy is continued [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined with non - ferrous metals. Social inventories continued to increase, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The cash cost support of alumina is below 2500 yuan, and it is in a range - bound state [3] Zinc - As the holiday approaches, Shanghai zinc rebounded near the 5 - day moving average and then fell sharply. The downstream procurement basically stopped, and funds mainly reduced positions. The long sentiment in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors disappeared. The short - term outlook is high - volatility, but the expectation of oversupply of zinc ingots remains unchanged, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is continued [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rebound of Shanghai nickel was blocked, and market trading was dull. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase. The market confidence declined, and the transaction was light. The market is in a pre - holiday state, waiting for a clear direction [7] Tin - The decline of Shanghai tin expanded during the day, and the relative support of the tin price is at the MA60 moving average. It awaits the guidance of post - holiday supply trends and peak - season consumption rhythms [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, and market trading was dull. The overall inventory reduction speed of the market slowed down. There may be spot dumping, and the short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rebounded at the end of the session. The supply side has a phased contraction, and there is a resumption expectation after the holiday. The downstream demand may be dragged down. The inventory is differentiated, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the price fluctuation narrowed. In February, the polysilicon production decreased by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to be reduced by 3%. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [11]

| | | | V V SUIL FUIURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月13日 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | | 【豆一】 临近假期,盘面呈现粕强油弱的状态,豆棕菜油呈现减仓态势。美豆上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。 我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少，主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易谈判提升需求，可以鼓励 供应端扩张,面积同比增长,单产维持在历史高点，也会大概率去库,因此易于提升CBOT大豆价格，我们要谨 慎美豆油和美豆震荡 ...

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月13日 (原油) 隔夜原油大幅走低，布伦特原油跌破68美元/桶。特朗普表示谈判可能持续一个月，缓解了市场对近 期军事行动的担忧。IEA月报将今年全球石油需求增长预期从93万桶/日下调至85万桶/日。 供应 端，1月美国受风暴天气干扰，原油产量明显下滑；同时，停产与出口受限亦削弱了啥萨克斯坦、俄 罗斯及委内瑞拉的供应。IEA预计2026年原油供应过剩将超过370万桶/日，创年度平均水平的历史 新高。我们此前提示，油价在70美元/桶附近涨势明显松动，次日在地缘溢价回撤与库存累积的双重 压制下,原油遭遇大幅回调。鉴于奉节假期较长、美伊谈判前景仍不明朗，建议投资者注意规避风 险。 (贵金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡。本周美国非农就业超预期，降息预期受到压制，市场等待今晚CPI数据。她缘前景 仍存不确定性,短期责金属波动率逐渐下降,震荡等待驱动,保持观望。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜转跌，贵金属与美国股市联动下滑,金银关注非农就业指标超预期;而美股担忧Al发展影 响传统行业营收,且不确定就业潜力强弱。沪铜持仓缩减至55万手,价格跌破MA4 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival, demand changes, and supply adjustments, with different trends in various chemical products [2][3][5] - Some products face supply - demand imbalances in the short - term, while others have potential opportunities in the medium - to long - term depending on factors like inventory changes and demand recovery [3][5][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, stable trading, and some price increases [2] - PE market may be stable to weak in the short - term due to reduced demand and continued supply pressure [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak downward situation due to reduced demand and expected supply increase [2] Polyester - PX and PTA decreased due to approaching Spring Festival and weakening demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene glycol is in range - bound, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [3] - Short fiber load decreased, inventory is low, and the price follows raw materials [3] - Bottle chip has short - term raw material - following trends, and mid - term attention is on post - holiday demand and de - stocking [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated, and the spot market rose slightly. Post - holiday supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol has a weak fundamental situation, but post - holiday de - stocking is expected [6] - Urea prices may rise in the short - term and continue to be strong after the holiday [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may see a price increase due to cost support and export demand, with a buy - on - dips strategy [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces supply - demand surplus pressure, with a high - selling strategy [8] - Glass may have a seasonal inventory build - up, but there are potential buying opportunities at low valuations [8]

| 模 | | --- | | S | | 1 | | 72 1 | | D | | 1 | | 1 | | V 2 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼表示，伊朗正与美国进行磋商,以敲定下一轮谈判的具体时间。与此同 时，特朗普称正考虑向中东派遣第二个航母打击群，为谈判破裂后可能采取的军事行动做准备。EIA数据显示， 上周美国原油库存环比增加850万桶，创下2025年1月以来最大周度增幅,远超市场预期。受此超预期累库利空 影响，昨夜布伦特油价一度突破70美元/桶关键位后涨势松动,最终收于该关口下方。当前美伊对峙陷入僵局, 谈判前景不明,她缘紧张局势持续发酵,市场持续计入地缘政治风险溢价,而累库压力依然存在。多空因素交 织,预计油价将维持高波动性。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 据美媒报道,美第二艘航母已待命部署中东,特朗普在与内塔尼亚胡会晤后发帖称更倾向与伊朗达成协议，但 亦暗示若谈判未果不排除军事行动可能。地缘消息反复扰动下,隔夜燃料油及低硫燃料油跟随原油跳空高开, 盘中大 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月12日 | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。随着春节临近，本周螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量稍有下 滑，库存继续累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉开工季节性下滑，铁水维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产投资 降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is complex with different trends for various commodities. Most commodity operations are recommended to be on the sidelines, and some cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the rubber market are worth noting [2][3][4][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, and the pre - festival trend may remain volatile. Spot trading was average, and the basis remained stable. Downstream stocking for the Spring Festival was basically over. New cotton showed a situation of strong supply and demand. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The internal - external price difference is high, and the total import volume is not expected to increase significantly. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is still resilient, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Market attention shifted to the next season's production forecast. In the post - rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was low, which was not conducive to sugarcane growth. The sugar - making ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. As of January 31, in the 2025/26 season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production and sales both decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased. The production and sales progress was slow due to strong market bearish sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. Spring Festival stocking was coming to an end, and the cold - storage trading volume in the producing areas decreased. The overall sales were good. As of February 12, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 5.3151 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. The market's main trading logic is on the demand side. High acquisition prices and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory clearance. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR fell slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price dropped sharply. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber spot prices were stable, and the overseas butadiene port price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, and some domestic areas entered the suspension - cutting period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly, with some plants under maintenance or reducing production. The butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, with the all - steel tire inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increasing and the semi - steel tire inventory decreasing significantly. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 606,800 tons, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 16,400 tons, and the butadiene port inventory decreased to 36,600 tons. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, natural rubber supply decreases, synthetic rubber supply increases, rubber inventory rises, cost - driven factors weaken, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. As of February 5, 2026, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.182 million tons, a 0.6% month - on - month increase, and the inventory had been accumulating for five weeks. The domestic pulp price was weak, and the strength did not continue, with broad - leaved pulp performing relatively strongly. Downstream paper mills were cautious about stocking high - price raw materials, the demand support for pulp was weak, and paper mills were still implementing cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. The short - term fundamentals of pulp were still weak, and the short - term trend was volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas offer was lowered, the domestic spot price was weak, and the short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of February 6, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 51,500 cubic meters, a 16.53% month - on - month decrease. The total national port log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a 1.65% month - on - month decrease. The low inventory provided some support for the price. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼表示,伊朗正与美国进行磋商,以敲定下一轮谈判的具体时 间。与此同时，特朗普称正考虑向中东派遣第二个航母打击群,为谈判破裂后可能采取的军事行动 做准备。EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存环比增加850万桶，创下2025年1月以来最大周度增幅， 远超市场预期。受此超预期累库利空影响,昨夜布伦特油价一度突破70美元/桶关键位后涨势松动, 最终收于该关口下方。当前美伊对峙陷入僵局,谈判前景不明,地缘紧张局势持续发酵,市场持续 计入地缘政治风险溢价,而累库压力依然存在。多空因素交织，预计油价将维持高波动性。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布1月季明后非农就业人口增加13万人超预期，创2025年4月以来最大增幅，降息预期受 到压制，市场等待本周CPI数据。白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特认为美联储仍有充足空间降息，通胀数 据将是关键因素。短期贵金属波动率逐渐下降,节前保持观望。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月12日 【原油】 （铜） 隔夜伦铜波幅扩大，美国非农就业表现强劲指引美元与贵金属。沪铜开盘涨至短期均线上方,预计 国内铜库存节中累库。跨期反套为主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Methanol, PVC: なな☆, specific meaning not clearly defined in the given information [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market conditions of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, device operation, and seasonal factors, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract fluctuated and closed up. The market news guidance was limited, and enterprises mainly maintained stable prices for shipments. The downstream factories entered the market for rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. For polyethylene, the supply - side pressure continued, and the demand - side support weakened. In the short term, the mainstream price might show a weak - stable trend. For polypropylene, the demand for pre - holiday raw material replenishment weakened, and the supply was expected to increase, with a weak downward trend [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Their prices fluctuated and rebounded. PX had more long - term allocation opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently the demand was weak, and the processing margin declined. PTA was accumulating inventory, and the processing margin was under pressure. The shutdown of a 2.5 - million - ton device in East China would ease the inventory accumulation pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol: The supply shrank, and the price rebounded but remained in a range - bound state. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation might improve temporarily, but it was still under long - term pressure due to capacity growth [3] - Short fiber: It had a good supply - demand pattern with high load and low inventory. However, downstream orders were weak, and the profit was thin. The processing margin fluctuated, and the absolute price followed the raw material price [3] - Bottle chip: The processing margin was repaired under low load and relatively low inventory, but there was still long - term capacity pressure. It fluctuated with raw materials in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The spot price generally rose, and the domestic output continued to increase. The downstream comprehensive capacity utilization rate increased, and the port inventory in East China was basically flat. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve after the Spring Festival, and the port inventory might decline slowly [5] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the downstream demand was expected to decline. The fundamentals might weaken in the short term [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The import volume increased, the coastal demand was still weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. The domestic production started to increase, and the downstream备货 was active. The fundamentals were still weak, but the short - term market was significantly affected by geopolitical situations. The inventory might decline slowly after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea: The futures and spot prices were stable. Although the daily output was high, the factory orders continued to progress, and the production enterprises' inventory decreased significantly this week. The demand was expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the market might strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It fluctuated within a narrow range. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The industry would enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage. The cost support strengthened, and the export situation was good. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - Caustic soda: It fluctuated during the day. The industry start - up fluctuated slightly and remained at a high level. The inventory decreased significantly but still had pressure. It was expected to operate near the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It fluctuated. The inventory continued to rise, and the supply remained at a high level. The downstream procurement sentiment was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and wait and see when the price fell near the cost. The strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash could continue to be held [8] - Glass: It fluctuated. The inventory increased slightly, and there was pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The industry profit was weak, and the production capacity continued to be compressed. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low - valued structural position [8]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 豆油 | な☆☆ ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 豆一增仓强势上涨。期货市场大幅增仓，市场预期偏乐观，关注节前资金的动向。目前现货市场交投清淡。近 期的政策端拍卖大豆成交价格偏强,给市场带来提振。美国农业部上调了巴西大豆产量,美豆供需未调整,报 告偏空。不过美豆仍上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。由于外盘大豆价格近期偏强,对国产大豆也有一 定的溢出效应。我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少,主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易 ...