| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | なな☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 五米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆从高位回落,盘面也在进行移仓。本周进口大豆方面市场担心通过进度放缓带动豆类价格走强，国产 大豆也被带动,价格冲高之后高位出现获利了结。本周政策端购销双向全部成交,成交均价在4110元/吨。国产 大豆现货端坚挺稳定,市场参与主体也在收购大豆。短期持续关注政策和现货端的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, financial futures, etc., and shows the year-to-date price changes and the changes in average daily open interest and precipitation funds [2][4][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 970.66 with a 1.00% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.59%, volatility change of -9.40%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of 47.37; Silver closed at 14,892.00 with an 8.80% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 37.70%, volatility change of 3.90%, speculation degree of 3.97, trend degree of 0.30, and capital change of 43.39 [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, and industrial silicon showed different price changes, volatilities, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. For example, copper closed at 94,080.00 with a 1.40% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.71%, volatility change of 22.77%, speculation degree of 0.81, trend degree of 0.08, and capital change of -14.36 [2] - **Black Metals**: Products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and stainless steel had their own price trends, volatilities, etc. For instance, rebar closed at 3,060.00 with a 3.07% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.01%, volatility change of 44.45%, speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of -0.47, and capital change of -12.59 [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, asphalt, PVC, polyethylene, etc. all had corresponding price fluctuations and other data. For example, crude oil closed at 437.60 with a 3.55% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.94%, volatility change of -19.12%, speculation degree of 2.26, trend degree of -0.28, and capital change of -5.72 [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton, sugar, corn, soybeans, etc. showed different performance. For example, cotton closed at 13,835.00 with a 0.62% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 5.63%, volatility change of -2.35%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.01, and capital change of 9.83 [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC, IF, IM, IH, T, TS, TF had their respective prices, weekly changes, volatilities, etc. For example, IC closed at 7,174.00 with a 1.28% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.37%, volatility change of -5.33%, speculation degree of 0.63, trend degree of 0.07, and capital change of 23.50 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Different futures products had varying year - to - date price changes. For example, silver had a 99.36% increase, while glass had a 28.80% decrease [13] Changes in Average Daily Open Interest - The average daily open interest of products such as cotton yarn, rapeseed meal, asphalt, soybean oil, and live pigs had relatively large increases [15] Changes in Precipitation Funds - Gold, silver, tin, and cotton had increased capital attention, with corresponding changes in precipitation funds [16][17]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜有色整体强势，铝价相对温和。昨日华东、中原和华南现货贴水收窄至-60元、-130元和-165 元。铝锭铝棒社库较周一分别下降1.1万吨和0.5万吨。沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势未改，短期库存和现 货反馈尚可,背靠布林线中轨位置参与。 【氧化铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位,供应过剩格局难改,行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升,未来三个月 存在二十万吨以上的仓单过期流出压力。各地现货指数延续下跌，当前晋豫现金成本尚有利润，形 成规模减产前氧化铝弱势运行为主，基差较大现货跌势确定性更强。 【铸造铝合金】 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调100元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。 宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力与沪铝价差扩大至千元，关注年末 可能存在收窄空间。 美国正准备扣押更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只,行动将针对可能运输过其他受制裁原油的油轮,该 扣押行动或导致至少三批共计600万桶委内瑞拉原油运输被暂停。 IEA月报下调了创纪录石油供应过 剩预测，供应过剩规模略有收窄，但仍处于高位。油价再次进入供应过剩与 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月11日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破上行,主力05大幅增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春节前需求能 否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨， 环比增加175.3 ...

免责声朗：国招聘总气周及公司昆经中国正冶金创优良印发动者制度，已具备解结铁路咨询制作资销馆，本标告仅供国税销货商贸公司（以下销旅、本公司"）的机构都个人息户（以下简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会固定的人收购本报告而没 其为客户，如澳优人并非军冠探货客户，请及时退四并删除，本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不用证按等信息的推确性或完整任，本视飞推动配资料、意见及地则已提供客户作参考之目。本提高所避出辞、意见及她。 仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所能的期货或牌仅的价值、价值可能会玩动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及舞 体能用或新易举的值得好并不给成就好在机人的影姿弹放，在任何情配下。本公因不变好何队人回使用本都提体的体好用的客所得到纳在伊朗诺埃·皮仔拥著仔。本场停可能的增第华河退战的想法可能到强势。 本公里币飞得尔森尊的尊झ轮， 合法托，完整钟和哲 确性负责，本报告授H这些地址或极程的目的年把免了客户使用力量。但经网站的车商不扣或本都搭在任用部分。客户调自行承担担放送生间站的费用如印。本相选的较风险公司称有，本公司对本统目管用量，切段利，除彩异事讲题型 示，否则本报告中的 ...

免责声朗：国招聘总气周及公司昆经中国正冶金创优良印发动者制度，已具备解结铁路咨询制作资销馆，本标告仅供国税销货商贸公司（以下销旅、本公司"）的机构都个人息户（以下简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会固定的人收购本报告而没 其为客户，如澳优人并非军冠探货客户，请及时退四并删除，本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不用证按等信息的推确性或完整任，本视飞推动配资料、意见及地则已提供客户作参考之目。本提高所避出辞、意见及她。 仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所能的期货或牌仅的价值、价值可能会玩动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及舞 体能用或新易举的值得好并不给成就好在机人的影姿弹放，在任何情配下。本公因不变好何队人回使用本都提体的体好用的客所得到纳在伊朗诺埃·皮仔拥著仔。本场停可能的增第华河退战的想法可能到强势。 本公里币飞得尔森尊的尊झ轮， 合法托，完整钟和哲 确性负责，本报告授H这些地址或极程的目的年把免了客户使用力量。但经网站的车商不扣或本都搭在任用部分。客户调自行承担担放送生间站的费用如印。本相选的较风险公司称有，本公司对本统目管用量，切段利，除彩异事讲题型 示，否则本报告中的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market is strong, with policy - side trading showing full - volume transactions and a strong price difference compared to imported soybeans. Short - term focus should be on policy and spot - end performance [2] - German biofuel policy changes may marginally improve palm oil demand, but the high inventory in the Malaysian market cannot be ignored, and palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] - The domestic market continues with the logic of slow import soybean customs clearance. The soybean and soybean meal futures show different trends, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [5] - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, while rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to remain strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term [6] - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain transportation progress in the Northeast and corn and wheat auctions [7] - Live pig futures continue to weaken, and the market is expected to face a second bottom - testing next year [8] - Egg futures have significant position - reduction, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [9] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are strong. Policy - side trading has full - volume transactions with an average price of 4110 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening. Short - term focus on policy and spot - end [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic market follows the slow - clearance logic of imported soybeans. The 01/03 contracts of Dalian soybean futures rise, and the 05 contract is flat. The USDA December report has no adjustment to US soybean data. The US soybean futures are weak. Wait for South American weather changes, be bullish on near - month contracts, and consider going long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - German biofuel policy changes may affect the demand structure. The marginal demand for palm oil is expected to improve, but the high - inventory pressure in the Malaysian market exists. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, and rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to be strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term. Pay attention to rapeseed import changes [6] Corn - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Northeast and North Port corn spot prices are stable, while downstream procurement shows different trends. The 03 contract may have a weak correction, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - position layout at low prices [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to weaken, while the spot market is generally stable. After short - term trading on epidemic issues, the market returns to the oversupply logic. A second bottom - testing is expected next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significant position - reduction and small price fluctuations. The spot price is stable with some local increases. The short - term price expectation is downward, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve [9]

【焦炭】 日内价格震荡下行。市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需 采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧 性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，价格或偏弱震荡为主。 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅回落。 本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量同步下降，库存延续去化态势。热卷供需依然双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍 有待缓解。铁水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大, 关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基建增速持续回落，制造业PMI边际稍有改善，内需 整体依然偏弱，11月钢材出口维持高位。利好政策并未落地，市场心态脆弱，随着炉料继续下跌，盘面跟随成本中枢下移，短 期依然承压。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面下跌。 供应端，全球发运偏强，国内到港量阶段回落，略低于去年同期水平，港口库存保持累库趋势并逼近年内 高位。需求端，淡季终端需求继续下滑，钢厂盈利情况较差，铁水仍处于季节性减产趋势中。海外降息落地，国内将要召开 ...

| 《八》 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月11日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | | | PVC | なな☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ☆☆☆ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | な女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | | | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月11日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破上行,主力05大幅增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春节前需求能 否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨， 环比增加175.3 ...