Tabl e_Title 2026 年 1 月 26 日 大类资产运行周报（20260119-20260123） 地缘风险有所缓和 美元指数周度回落 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.09% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.22% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.46% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.41% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.58% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -1.88% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 3.37% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 3.84% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（2025102 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | РХ | ★☆★ | | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | ★☆☆ | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | な女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期 ...

| ////◆ 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | なな☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★★☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★★☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★★☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏震荡，上周现货成交尚可,贸易商采购活跃,基差稳中偏强。国内棉花整体呈现供销两旺的局面, 继续关注下游的需求表现。截至1月22号，累计加工皮棉719.0万吨，同比增加62.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加121.5万吨;累计 销售皮棉463.1万吨，同比增加201.6万吨，较过去四年均值增加250.7万吨。国内12月份进口棉花1 ...

国产大豆主力合约价格表现偏强,并伴随增仓。国产大豆现货市场偏平稳,农户手中余粮偏少,市场供应偏 紧,不过近期政策拍卖成交情况拍好,短期给市场带来边际供应的改善。随着节日的临近,需求方面市场预计 也存在边际改善的概率。宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆一也有一定的溢出效应。短期持续 关注政策和市场情绪的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 南美丰产预期重回主要交易逻辑后，短期市场消化完毕。巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）数据显示，截止1月 17日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获完成2.3%，五年同期均值3.2%。新季巴西大豆收割受天气影响,进度偏慢，市 场开始聚焦巴西新季大豆收割进度。国内方面,国家粮油信息中心监测数据显示,目前我国2、3月船期大豆采 购均过9成,4月船期采购过4成。美财长贝森特确认,我国已履行1200万吨大豆采购承诺。后续一方面要持续关 注巴西大豆的收获情况，一般来说2月底开始大范围收获，届时美豆/连粕压力或加大。另一方面随着中加关系 的改善，后续加莱籽及菜粕的进口或对国内豆粕价格形成冲击。短期美豆/连箱或将延续底部震荡格局。 【豆油&棕榈油】 马来西亚高频数据显示出产量环比下降而出口需求环比增 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月26日 ●展望：美国PCE数据小幅回升，降息预期进一步降温。随着日元贬值和 日债的压力，美元指数上周大幅回调，格陵兰岛冲突的降温也提振市场风险 偏好。伊朗局势带来的不确定性对贵金属和能化形成利好，短期商品市场或 震荡偏强。 ●行情回顾：商品市场上周整体收涨2.08%，其中贵金属领涨9.08%，有 色和能化分别上涨2.96%和1.95%，农产品和黑色微跌0.04%和0.53%。 地缘扰动不断 短期商品或震荡偏强 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为白银、PTA和黄金，涨幅分别 为11.04%、8.57%和7.74%；跌幅较大的品种为玻璃、生猪和铁矿石，跌 幅分别为3.54%、3.46%和2.09%。 商品市场20日平均波动率继续上升，其中苯乙烯、生猪和黄金波动较 大。资金方面，全市场上周规模继续增加，仅黑色板块为资金流出，其中黄 金和白银分别入金244和127亿。 黑色方面，螺纹表需小幅回落，产量有所回升，库存再次累积。钢厂利 润欠佳，复产节奏有所扰动，铁水产量基本持平，短期预计难有显著增加。 原材料方面，铁矿石国内港口库存大幅增加并保持累增趋势，结构性矛盾有 待缓解。焦煤盘面对 ...

Group 1: Oil and Related Products - The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran, increasing concerns about Middle East crude supply disruptions. The Tengiz oil field's extended shutdown and US cold wave also affected the market. Despite a recent price rebound, the high inventory pressure in Q1 2026 may limit the price increase [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil followed crude oil in a callback due to the end of cold - wave speculation and EIA's unexpected inventory build - up. High - sulfur fuel oil remained strong, supported by geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of Asian spot spreads [22]. - Kpler data shows sufficient Venezuelan crude arrivals in January, but a significant reduction in shipments since January may lead to supply shortages in February and subsequent months. Cost support and weak terminal demand suggest a short - term bullish but volatile outlook for asphalt [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks have raised the price center of precious metals. However, after gold and silver broke through key price levels, there may be short - term fluctuations due to profit - taking and overbought technical indicators. It is advisable to wait for a stable period before re - entering the market [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices were pushed up by the trading sentiment of precious metals and a weak US dollar. Supply - side factors such as strikes in Chilean small mines and roadblocks affecting large mines are being monitored [4]. - Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. Geopolitical factors caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the price direction of gold and silver after breaking through key levels [5]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton in the short term. There is an opportunity for short - selling at the 25,000 yuan/ton level due to the expected supply surplus [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The production of recycled lead is restricted by high costs and low prices, and environmental protection policies may affect future production [9]. - Nickel prices rose significantly with active trading. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream due to high prices. Short - term sentiment is positive, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Tin prices continued to rise, driven by investment funds and the expected long - term demand from AI - related investments [11]. Group 4: Industrial Metals and Alloys - Cast aluminum alloy prices follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The market is inactive, and the supply surplus is difficult to change. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6]. - Alumina production capacity is still high, and the supply surplus persists. With falling ore prices, the cost has decreased, but the price is under pressure, and the upside of the futures price is limited [7]. - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to be affected if major enterprises cut production. Demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 9,000 yuan/ton level [14]. Group 5: Steel and Iron - related Products - Steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand decreased slightly, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Hot - rolled coil demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline [15]. - Iron ore prices oscillated last week. Global shipments decreased seasonally but remained high year - on - year. Domestic port inventory increased significantly. Demand is weak, but there is still an expectation of winter stockpiling [16]. - Coke prices rebounded. The first price increase was postponed, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate in a range [17]. - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Production increased slightly, inventory increased, and winter stockpiling demand continued. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [18]. - Manganese ore prices increased slightly. There are structural problems in port inventory. Silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [19]. - Silicon - iron prices increased slightly. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. Supply decreased significantly, inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [20]. Group 6: Chemical Products - Polycrystalline silicon's overseas orders increased, but the spot trading is weak. The futures price may face pressure in the future, waiting for the official guidance from the exchange [13]. - Urea prices were stable over the weekend. Downstream demand increased, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to - long term [24]. - Methanol prices fluctuated due to geopolitical factors. Overseas production is low, and domestic port inventory is high. However, the expected reduction in imports in Q1 provides support, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [25]. - Pure benzene's upward momentum weakened. Supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, and slow inventory reduction is expected in the long term [26]. - Styrene prices increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices may limit the upside. Supply - demand competition may intensify [27]. - Propylene supply has no obvious pressure, and downstream demand is weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand is weakening. Polypropylene supply pressure is not large, but demand is weak [28]. - PVC prices are strong. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased. There is a possibility of capacity reduction and increased exports this year. Caustic soda prices are oscillating, with high inventory and high production. The profit of chlor - alkali integration may continue to be compressed [29]. - PX and PTA prices increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, there may be opportunities for long - positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads, subject to downstream demand [30]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, and polyester load is expected to decline. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, supply - demand conditions may improve, but the long - term price is under pressure [31]. - Short - fiber production is high, and inventory is low. Downstream orders are weak, but sales increased due to raw material price increases. Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins improved slightly. Long - term capacity pressure remains [32]. Group 7: Building Materials - Glass inventory increased slightly, and there is a risk of further accumulation during the downstream holiday season. Production is currently unprofitable, and the price may fluctuate with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes [33]. - Soda ash inventory decreased slightly but remains under pressure. Some enterprises cut production. The short - term price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and a short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended in the long term [34]. Group 8: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices oscillated. South American soybean harvest is affected by weather, and Chinese soybean purchases are progressing. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian harvest and potential imports from Canada [35]. - Palm oil and soybean oil prices are strong. US biomass diesel policies are favorable, and the supply - demand situation in Indonesia and Malaysia needs to be monitored [36]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed supply in Canada is sufficient but exports are weak. The supply of rapeseed oil may be slightly tighter than that of rapeseed meal [37]. - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to policy and spot market guidance [38]. - Corn prices are relatively strong due to reduced available supply and pre - holiday restocking demand. Future price trends depend on the sales progress in Northeast China and auction results [39]. - Pig prices are expected to be strong before the Spring Festival but weak after the holiday. The industry still needs to reduce production capacity, but the current price recovery may slow down this process [40]. - Egg prices are strong due to pre - festival stocking and reduced supply. In the long - term, the fundamental situation is improving, and a long - position strategy on price dips is recommended [41]. - Cotton prices are oscillating. US cotton exports increased significantly. Domestic cotton inventory is high, but demand is stable. The impact of the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area is uncertain [42]. - Sugar prices are oscillating. Indian sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thai production is slow. In China, the focus is on the expected difference in production. The short - term price faces pressure [43]. - Apple prices are oscillating. Cold - storage sales increased for the Spring Festival, but poor fruit quality and high prices may affect inventory reduction [44]. - Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, demand has increased slightly, and low inventory provides some support. Temporarily hold off on trading [45]. - Pulp prices are oscillating. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing for three consecutive weeks. Paper mills' purchases are mainly for immediate needs. Temporarily hold off on trading [46]. Group 9: Financial Products - A - share indexes rose, and futures contracts showed different trends. The market is concerned about the continuity of US dollar liquidity repair and the impact of the Greenland conflict on risk appetite. A - shares are expected to shift from rapid upward movement to a strong - oscillating trend [47]. - Bond prices were strong last week. In the short - term, the yield of medium - to - long - term bonds is likely to oscillate, and the short - term yield may continue to decline due to loose liquidity. There are opportunities for steepening the yield curve and flattening the ultra - steep spread [48]. Group 10: Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The "weak reality" logic suppressed the price, while CMA CGM's suspension of resuming flights provided short - term support. The market is expected to be weak - oscillating in the future, and the key factors for near - term and far - term contracts are different [21].

美财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，增加了8个实体和9艘油轮。 压力升级引发市场对 中东原油供应中断的担忧。伊朗原油产量约320万桶/日，是OPEC第四大产油国。Tengiz油田因火灾 影响全面停产，此前初步评估需7-10天修复，但最新消息称可能在本月剩余时间继续停产，1月该 国原油产量预计仅为100万-110万桶/日，明显低于此前的180万桶/日。美国寒潮天气导致天然气大 涨，亦提振原油因取暖油需求增加。在地缘冲突下供应中断担忧与基本面阶段性利好因素下近期油 价强势反弹,但2026Q1累库压力较大仍是压制油价反弹高度的因素。 【责金属】 今年以来地缘风险加剧，特朗普对全球秩序的冲击令贵金属重心抬升趋势难改。黄金、白银分别突 破5000美元/盎司和100美元/盎司整数关口后需要警惕资金阶段性获利了结带来的波动，技术指标 持续超买也有一定修复的诉求,等待构筑震荡平台以及波动率下降后择机再参与为宜。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月26日 (原油) 上周五沪铜高开至短期均线上方，受贵金属交投情绪及美元疲软显著推动。供应端，市场关注智利 小型铜矿 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 轴把:降波后的再择向 基本面预期未见明显变化,铂、肥上行驱动主要来自宏观。虽然美不再对关键资源加征关税, 缓解了铂、妃的结构性矛盾。但在美国抓捕马杜罗之后，特朗普再提武力否并格陵兰岛，加速美、 欧离心,欧洲地售美债进行抵抗的背景下，美元指数加速走弱，更长远的视角看，市场对于美国国 运下行的押注力度仍有提升空间,"钱"和"货"博弈的天平继续向"货"端倾斜,以金银为代表 的贵金属强势上行,资金自然会给铂、密这两个资源瑞高脆性的贡金属品种更多溢价空间。 另外,就钩、把自身基本面预期来看,2026年铂基本面预期强于兜。供应端看,虽然铂妃供应 结构存在较大差异，但二者的供应犹动都相对有限:1）铂、把价格高企,矿山端生产积极性高; 2）俄罗斯产出的健主要直接出口或转口供应给我国,西方国家制裁的影响已经微乎其微。所以, 对比铂、肥基本面强弱主要从消费端入口。ஐ投资需求占比微乎其微，终端消费超8成用于汽车尾 气催化剂，在全球新能源汽车对传统油车加速替代背景下，把消费增长预期不足，2026年基本面预 期虽仍延续供不应求、但供求缺口大幅收窄。相比之下,铂消费结构分散,汽车尾气催化器用铂占 比仅四成,投资和首饰 ...

| 国际 首页 > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属表现强势,金银继续刷新历史新高。特朗普称关于格陵兰岛的协议将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全 面准入,如果欧洲因关税威胁抛售美国资产,将面临重大报复,再次强调对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征关 税,其对于全球秩序的颠覆令责金属重心抬升趋势难改。短期如黄金冲破5000美元/盎司同时白银冲突100美 元/盎司整数关口，需要警惕资金获利了结带来的波动,技术指标持续超买也有一定修复的诉求,等待构筑 震荡平台以及波 ...

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月23日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★★☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★★☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★★☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，本周走势偏震荡，棉花现货成交一般，基差稳中偏强。国内棉花整体呈现供销两旺的局面,继续关注下游 的需求表现。截至1月15号，累计加工皮棉712.8万吨，同比增加63.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加126.0万吨；累计销售皮棉 440.9万吨，同比增加204.6万吨，较四年均值增加241万吨。国内12月 ...