Economic Overview - China's economy is characterized by "volume increase and price decrease," with Q1 GDP growth at 5.3%, exceeding the 4.6% market expectation, while the GDP deflator recorded -1.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressure[9] - Despite a recovery in consumer spending, per capita consumption has only returned to 88.5% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a trend of consumption downgrade and a focus on cost-effectiveness[9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - March CPI in the U.S. rose to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4%, with core CPI at 3.8%, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations until September[5] - The market is experiencing "re-inflation" sentiment, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising following the CPI data release[5] Market Performance - In April, the domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with A-shares rising by 1.02% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.39%, while overseas markets faced declines due to delayed rate cut expectations[16] - The South China commodity index recorded a 5.83% increase in April, with black metals leading at 11.83% growth, while agricultural products fell by 2.20%[34] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 2.30%, reflecting a 1.27 basis point increase from March[70] - The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity amounted to 550 billion yuan in April, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties[46] Commodity Trends - Gold prices reached a peak of $2,400 per ounce before settling at $2,285.78, with a monthly increase of 2.32% driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns[76] - Copper prices surged by 12.5% to $10,162 per ton, influenced by supply disruptions and strong demand expectations, despite signs of weakening downstream consumption[76]

Domestic Economy - The 4-month LPR rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations, with potential for interest rate and RRR cuts in Q2 due to weak domestic demand and unstable real estate[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in March saw a year-on-year decline, with upstream mining profits improving while midstream and downstream sectors experienced a slowdown[21] - Industrial enterprise inventories rebounded slightly, but destocking remains challenging due to price reductions[43] US Economy - US Q1 GDP growth fell short of expectations at 1.6%, the lowest in nearly two years, while core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.7%, raising concerns about stagflation[32] - Fixed investment contributed 0.91 percentage points to GDP, with residential investment growing 13.9% and inventory drag on GDP weakening[5] - March core PCE inflation slightly exceeded expectations at 2.8% year-on-year, driven by strong core services inflation[7][8] Eurozone Economy - Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained weak at 45.6 in April, while services PMI rose to 52.9, the highest in 11 months, indicating a widening divergence between sectors[40] - Germany's composite PMI returned to expansion at 50.5, driven by services, while France's composite PMI improved to 49.9[40] Market Performance - US 10-year Treasury yields surged past 4.7%, hitting a yearly high, as inflation concerns reduced market expectations for rate cuts[10] - The Hang Seng Index rose 8.8% last week, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged 13.43%, reflecting strong performance in Hong Kong markets[26] Commodities and Currencies - WTI crude oil prices increased 1.75% last week, while Brent crude rose 0.88%, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions[47] - The US dollar index remained stable at 106.09, while the yen weakened against the yuan, with USD/JPY rising 1.09% last week[47]

宏观周报 李婷 021-68555105 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 021-68555105 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 1、3 月美国零售消费超预期走强 线上零售、加油站消费带动非耐用品消费走强。3 月非耐用品消费多数改善，其中无店 面零售为主要贡献项，环比录得 2.7%，前值 0.2%；日用品商店、杂货店零售、食品饮料、 保健个护、加油站零售消费环比均升温，服饰、运动用品、餐饮酒吧环比降温。目前美国就 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------|----- ...

河南省郑州市未来大道 69 号未来公寓 1201 室 电话：0371-65613449 辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路 67 号 3 单元 17 层 4 号 电话：0411-84803386 地址：浙江省杭州市上城区九堡街道九源路 9 号 1 幢 12 楼 1205 室 电话：0571-89700168 宏观周报 免责声明 本报告仅向特定客户传送，未经铜冠金源期货投资咨询部授权许可，任何引用、 转载以及向第三方传播的行为均可能承担法律责任。本报告中的信息均来源于公 开可获得资料，铜冠金源期货投资咨询部力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性 及完整性不作任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 全国统一客服电话：400-700-0188 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 总部 | | | 上海市浦东新区源深路 273 号 | | | 电话： 021-68559999 （总机） | | | 传真： 021-68550055 | | | 上海营业部 | | | 上海 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 ⚫ 国内观点概述 核心观点 核心观点 1、美国 1、权益市场……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………10 三、经济数据预测 . 李婷 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | 宏观及大类资产月报 | | | | | | | 2024 年 4 月 10 日 | | | | 经济外强内温 , 资源品价格强势 | | | | 2024 年 4 月 8 日 | | | | | | | 核心观点 | | ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Q4 GDP was revised up to 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.2%[12] - The PCE for February showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with expectations[58] - The core PCE year-on-year decreased to 2.8%, meeting expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2021[58] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The March consumer confidence index reached 79.4, the highest since July 2021, surpassing the expected 76.5[36] - Short-term inflation expectations fell to 2.9%, the lowest since December 2020, while long-term expectations remained at 2.8%[5] - The energy component of the PCE rose by 2.3% month-on-month, rebounding from a previous decline of -1.4%[3] Group 3: Manufacturing and Profit Trends - The manufacturing PMI for March recorded at 50.8, exceeding the expected 50.1, indicating a return to expansion[17] - Industrial profits for January-February increased by 10.2% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from a previous decline[78] - Downstream manufacturing profits improved significantly, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.7%[15]

Profit Growth Analysis - In January-February 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 9140.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, compared to a decline of 2.3% in 2023[2] - The profit data for January-February 2024 is lower than the same period in 2022 (11575.6 billion yuan) and 2021 (11140.1 billion yuan)[14] - The two-year compound year-on-year growth rate for January-February 2024 is recorded at -11.1%, further declining from the end of 2023[14] Industry and Enterprise Type Insights - Downstream manufacturing profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, recovering from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[18] - Private enterprises showed slower profit recovery, with a growth rate of 12.6% compared to 31.3% for foreign enterprises[20] - The gap between the official comparable year-on-year growth rate (10.2%) and the unadjusted rate (3.03%) indicates a significant adjustment in the base year, reflecting the weakness in smaller enterprises[12] Inventory and Demand Dynamics - The inventory turnover ratio decreased to 31% in January-February 2024, indicating a slowdown in enterprise turnover amid excess capacity and weak demand[27] - Finished product inventory growth was recorded at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.1% previously, but still reflects low inventory levels overall[27]

宏观周报 核心观点 ⚫ 风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产修复不及预期，海外 衰退超预期。 021-68555105 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 准。 制造业 PMI 持续反弹。美国 3 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值录得 52.5，预期 51.7，前值 52.2，较 2 月份以来进一步改善，持续高于荣枯线，创下近两年来的最快增速。3 月份新订 单的增长速度略有放缓，就业机会升至今年迄今的最高水平，通胀压力显示出回升的迹象， 投入成本以 6 个月来最快的速度上涨。 38.45 万美元，创下历年同期的最高水平。 图表 3 美国 Markit PMI 图表 4 美国成屋销量 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 2021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01 Markit制造业PMI Markit服务业PMI % 300,000 350,000 400,000 45 ...

宏观周报 ⚫ 海外方面，美国 2 月非农就业新增 27.5 万人，超出市场 预期，前两月累计下修16.7万人，商品部门边际降温，服 务就业依旧有韧劲，工资通胀压力缓解，失业率意外上行 至3.9%，整体而言目前就业市场温和增速的趋势未变。周 五鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，强调通胀已出现明显进展，且长 线通胀预期锚定良好，重申今年降息可能是适当的。随后 美债收益率回落，美元指数下行，金价连续创新高，目前 市场定价6月首次降息，全年降4次。欧央行利率决议连续 4次"按兵不动"，同步下调通胀、经济增长预期。本周 关注美国2月CPI、零售数据。 中国出口超预期开门红，美国非农就业温和增长 ⚫ 国内方面，1-2月进出口数据均高于市场预期，主要有3点 原因①全球制造业景气回升，半导体产业链复苏，海外已 逐渐由去库转向补库，需求拉动出口超预期；②春节错位 以及2023年初疫情导致的低基数，助推了同比增速的改 善；③1-2月外贸企业积极抢订单、拓市场。2月物价数据 在春节错位下呈分化走势，CPI同比超预期且回正，PPI同 比走弱，后续由于低基数效应预计将呈弱修复趋势。两会 闭幕，总体而言未超市场预期，全年GDP目标5%左右， 赤字率3 ...