Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is currently stable, with slight price increases observed in some regions for downstream products like wood planks[1] - New Zealand's expected monthly shipping volume is projected to be around 10,000 cubic meters[3] Price Trends - The BDI index shows fluctuations, with a notable increase in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating a recovery in shipping rates[23] - The average daily outbound volume in Fujian is expected to remain steady, while Guangdong's daily outbound volume is also projected to stabilize[6][7] Wood Prices - The current spot price for imported spruce logs is approximately €121 per cubic meter, while radiata pine logs are priced at $120 per cubic meter[63] - Radiata pine log prices at the Rizhao port have shown minor fluctuations, with recent prices around 750 to 920 per cubic meter depending on specifications[12][13] Inventory Levels - National port inventory levels for 2023 are projected to be lower than in 2022, indicating a tightening supply situation[73] - The inventory of radiata pine logs is expected to decrease, reflecting a shift in market dynamics[87] Market Outlook - Short-term market logic appears weak, suggesting that if prices rise significantly, hedging opportunities should be considered[21] - The overall market sentiment indicates cautious optimism, with potential for price recovery in the coming months[20]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Domestic financial markets continue to show a strong bond and weak stock pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.31% for the week, reflecting a broader market weakness[10] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 1.06%, indicating a stronger bond market amidst weak domestic demand[10] - The South China Commodity Index fell by 1.03%, continuing its downward trend from the previous week, with gold futures dropping significantly by 2.44%[10] Group 2: Domestic Economic Tracking - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a 9.8% decrease week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 44.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the property market[17] - Passenger car sales also turned negative, with daily retail sales down 8.34% year-on-year and wholesale volume down 13.26%[17] - Domestic pork prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, with a weekly average price increase of 5.03%, while vegetable prices continued to decline[19] Group 3: Credit and Financing Conditions - In May, new RMB loans increased by 950 billion yuan, which is 410 billion yuan less than the previous year, reflecting weak demand in the real economy[33] - The total social financing in May was 2.07 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations, driven mainly by a significant increase in corporate and government bonds[33] Group 4: International Economic Tracking - The U.S. CPI growth slowed to 0% month-on-month in May, significantly below the expected 0.1%, marking the lowest level since July 2022[40] - The Eurozone's industrial output fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April, missing the expected growth of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 3%[45] Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The current asset allocation suggests 25% in equities, 15% in government bonds, 10% in gold, 10% in commodities, and 40% in cash, reflecting a cautious approach amidst market volatility[78]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in June, marking its first rate cut since 2019, as inflation in the Eurozone continued to decline without significant wage growth impact [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has seen fluctuating expectations for rate cuts, with the market now pricing in one rate cut for the year, down from earlier expectations of three [7][8] - Domestic market risk sentiment has further declined, with the stock-bond yield spread rising to a historical level of 82.2% [12] Group 2: Domestic Economic Tracking - In May, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.6% year-on-year, a significant rebound driven by strong demand from major trading partners, particularly in sectors like ships, integrated circuits, and automobiles [82] - The domestic real estate market showed a decline in transaction volume, with average daily sales in 30 major cities dropping by 26.37% month-on-month [85] - The domestic pork prices surged to a one-and-a-half-year high, with weekly average prices increasing by 7.33% [29] Group 3: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The A-share market has experienced a three-week adjustment, with the main board outperforming the ChiNext, and a noticeable increase in daily trading volume [16] - The asset allocation strategy suggests maintaining a 25% allocation to stocks, 15% to government bonds, and 40% to cash, reflecting a cautious approach amid current market conditions [65] - The domestic bond market has continued to rise, supported by a loosening liquidity environment, although the upside potential is limited due to the delayed rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [19]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic A-share market showed overall weakness due to insufficient confidence in the real estate new policy and a decline in domestic economic sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to stabilize above 3100 points [10] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly above 2.3%, while the domestic commodity index generally declined due to the drop in international commodities and a significant correction in black indices, although gold remained strong with a weekly increase of 0.39% [10][44] - The report notes that the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major and medium-sized cities significantly increased by 28.7% week-on-week, indicating a notable recovery in real estate transactions following the implementation of the new policy [27] Group 2 - The report states that the manufacturing PMI for May fell by 0.9 to 49.5, slightly below expectations, with both supply and demand declining, indicating a slowdown in production growth [50] - The report mentions that the non-manufacturing PMI for services rose by 0.2 points to 50.5, showing a slight acceleration in expansion, while the construction PMI fell by 1.9 points to 54.4, indicating that the support from real estate recovery and infrastructure is still not evident [25] - The report indicates that the domestic pork price continued to rise, with the average daily price increasing by 7.54% year-on-year, while vegetable prices saw a significant decline, with an average daily price decrease of 3.07% [30] Group 3 - The report highlights that the U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to the previous quarter's growth of 3.4% [59] - The report notes that the core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, remaining in line with expectations, but the core PCE's month-on-month growth of 0.2% was the smallest increase of the year [33] - The report indicates that the Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% in May, better than the market expectation of 2.5%, with core CPI also showing an increase [62]

张晨 期货从业资格号：F0284349 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010567 审核人：寇宁 期货从业资格号：F0262038 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0002132 2024年6月2日 全球主要资产走势回顾 02 海外热点跟踪 美国截至5月25日当周初请失 业金人数升至21.9万，高于预期及 修正后的前值，但数据仍位于年内 21-23万人主要波动区间内，美国 就业市场总体仍延续偏强态势。 图2.2：美国核心PCE物价指数当月同比与环比（右轴）（%） 美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率回 落至2.75%，续创紧缩以来新低；月 率降至0.25%，为年内新低，但距离 去年下半年以来低位水平尚有距离。 总体而言，结束了一季度令人失望的 去通胀停滞后，联储官员降息信心得 到些许喘息，但降息落地尚需新的通 胀下行趋势形成。 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 的 3 | 次水平。此外，加息定价消失，市场对于降息起始时点预测前移至9月，6、 | | 7 | 月两次会 ...

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve meeting indicates a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, with the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.46%[7] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed 105, reflecting a 0.2% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.33%[7] - The CRB commodity index increased by 0.18%, indicating overall stability in commodity markets despite geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar[7] Domestic Market Trends - In the week of May 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities rose by 1.43% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 31.4%[9] - Domestic pork prices increased by 1.47% week-on-week, marking the highest growth in three months, while vegetable prices fell by 2.86%[25] - Passenger car sales showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in daily retail, but overall market recovery remains weak, with an estimated 1.65 million units sold in May, down 5.3% year-on-year[14] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders rebounded with a 0.7% increase in April, exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% decline[35] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for May reached 47.4, surpassing expectations and indicating a strengthening economic outlook[53] - The U.S. housing market remains tight, with existing home sales down 1.9% month-on-month, and the median home price rising to $407,600, the highest in 25 years[20] Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation suggests maintaining 25% in equities, 15% in government bonds, and 40% in cash, reflecting a cautious investment approach amid market volatility[67] - The report recommends monitoring the support level at 2285 for gold, with expectations of limited downside potential despite recent price corrections[63]

寇宁 期货从业资格号：F3019331 期货从业资格号：F0284346 期货投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】38号 03 海外经济跟踪 图1.1 国内宏观大类资产表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------|---------------------|-------|-------------|----------------|-------------|--------------------| | 2.50% | 上证50指数 | 恒生指数, \n沪金主力合约, | | | | 值掠斯工 \n业平均指 | | Comex金主力 | | 美元兑日元. | | | | | 1.76% | | | 2.00% | | | | | 1.83% | | | 1.50% | | E 10Y E 1 | | | | ...

022/11/ 图4.6:国债利差(%) 中债券网站。 黄金 29日当周，金价连续2周回落，且与持有成本两端背离加深，主要受到地缘局势缓和带来的避 险溢价和投机溢价出清影响。随着联储会议维持年内降息方向不变的乐观基调，加之周五公布的非 农等经济数据低于预期，市场降息预期有所反弹，金银调整过程中获得支撑。总体看，除非出现年 内按兵不动或转为加息等小概率情况，预计金价调整空间或有限，任何预期的回摆都将是配置回补 入场的良机。策略上，短期参考纽期金2280-2300一线逢低配置为主。 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2024/1/22024/1/5 2024/1/102024/1/152024/1/182024/1/232024/1/262024/1/312024/2/52024/2/82024/2/132024/2/162024/2/212024/2/262024/2/292024/3/52024/3/82024/3/132024/3/182024/3/212024/3/262024/4/12024/4 ...

Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI new orders rebounded above 50, while non-manufacturing performance remains weak[3] - Construction PMI new orders show a significant downward trend, indicating a decline in construction activity[3] Construction Sector Insights - Real estate sales performance remains sluggish, with negative growth expanding in the first quarter[9] - Existing home sales are significantly better than pre-sold homes, with existing home sales accounting for about 20%[9] - High existing home inventory is straining real estate companies' finances, suppressing confidence in pre-sold home purchases[9] Financial Conditions - Industrial enterprises are experiencing prolonged accounts receivable periods, indicating cash flow issues[100] - The need for central government support for infrastructure funding is emphasized, as local government land revenue and bond issuance are insufficient[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing shows a cumulative year-on-year increase, but the overall investment climate remains cautious[6] - The first quarter saw a significant drop in net central government investment, with expectations of increased investment in the second quarter[11] Market Outlook - The expectation of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is strengthening, with manufacturing recovery benefiting domestic manufacturing resilience[15][32] - The potential for a "second stagflation" impact is being closely monitored, as inflation remains a key concern[96]

2024年4月22日 A股走强商品互博 地缘局势扰动加大 图2.2 主要行业固定资产投资累计同比增长率(%) 图2.6：国内猪肉、果蔬日均价 (元/公斤) 图3.1：美国零售销售环比（%） 图3.2：美国零售销售分项环比（%） | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 官员 (2024票委*) | 主要观点 | | 1 | 美联储主席鲍威尔* | 鉴于劳动力市场的强劲表现和迄今为止在通胀方面取得的进展,最为稳妥 的做法是让限制性政策更长时间发挥作用,让数据和不断变化的前景指 我们作决策。 | | 2 | 欧央行主席拉加德 | 当前"极其关注"油价动向,若无重大冲击,欧央行将很快降息。 | | 3 | 美联储副主席杰弗逊* | 如果通胀未如预期回落,美联储准备将 ...