Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve meeting indicates a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, with the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.46%[7] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed 105, reflecting a 0.2% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.33%[7] - The CRB commodity index increased by 0.18%, indicating overall stability in commodity markets despite geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar[7] Domestic Market Trends - In the week of May 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities rose by 1.43% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 31.4%[9] - Domestic pork prices increased by 1.47% week-on-week, marking the highest growth in three months, while vegetable prices fell by 2.86%[25] - Passenger car sales showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in daily retail, but overall market recovery remains weak, with an estimated 1.65 million units sold in May, down 5.3% year-on-year[14] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders rebounded with a 0.7% increase in April, exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% decline[35] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for May reached 47.4, surpassing expectations and indicating a strengthening economic outlook[53] - The U.S. housing market remains tight, with existing home sales down 1.9% month-on-month, and the median home price rising to $407,600, the highest in 25 years[20] Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation suggests maintaining 25% in equities, 15% in government bonds, and 40% in cash, reflecting a cautious investment approach amid market volatility[67] - The report recommends monitoring the support level at 2285 for gold, with expectations of limited downside potential despite recent price corrections[63]

寇宁 期货从业资格号：F3019331 期货从业资格号：F0284346 期货投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】38号 03 海外经济跟踪 图1.1 国内宏观大类资产表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------|---------------------|-------|-------------|----------------|-------------|--------------------| | 2.50% | 上证50指数 | 恒生指数, \n沪金主力合约, | | | | 值掠斯工 \n业平均指 | | Comex金主力 | | 美元兑日元. | | | | | 1.76% | | | 2.00% | | | | | 1.83% | | | 1.50% | | E 10Y E 1 | | | | ...

022/11/ 图4.6:国债利差(%) 中债券网站。 黄金 29日当周，金价连续2周回落，且与持有成本两端背离加深，主要受到地缘局势缓和带来的避 险溢价和投机溢价出清影响。随着联储会议维持年内降息方向不变的乐观基调，加之周五公布的非 农等经济数据低于预期，市场降息预期有所反弹，金银调整过程中获得支撑。总体看，除非出现年 内按兵不动或转为加息等小概率情况，预计金价调整空间或有限，任何预期的回摆都将是配置回补 入场的良机。策略上，短期参考纽期金2280-2300一线逢低配置为主。 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2024/1/22024/1/5 2024/1/102024/1/152024/1/182024/1/232024/1/262024/1/312024/2/52024/2/82024/2/132024/2/162024/2/212024/2/262024/2/292024/3/52024/3/82024/3/132024/3/182024/3/212024/3/262024/4/12024/4 ...

Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI new orders rebounded above 50, while non-manufacturing performance remains weak[3] - Construction PMI new orders show a significant downward trend, indicating a decline in construction activity[3] Construction Sector Insights - Real estate sales performance remains sluggish, with negative growth expanding in the first quarter[9] - Existing home sales are significantly better than pre-sold homes, with existing home sales accounting for about 20%[9] - High existing home inventory is straining real estate companies' finances, suppressing confidence in pre-sold home purchases[9] Financial Conditions - Industrial enterprises are experiencing prolonged accounts receivable periods, indicating cash flow issues[100] - The need for central government support for infrastructure funding is emphasized, as local government land revenue and bond issuance are insufficient[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing shows a cumulative year-on-year increase, but the overall investment climate remains cautious[6] - The first quarter saw a significant drop in net central government investment, with expectations of increased investment in the second quarter[11] Market Outlook - The expectation of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is strengthening, with manufacturing recovery benefiting domestic manufacturing resilience[15][32] - The potential for a "second stagflation" impact is being closely monitored, as inflation remains a key concern[96]

2024年4月22日 A股走强商品互博 地缘局势扰动加大 图2.2 主要行业固定资产投资累计同比增长率(%) 图2.6：国内猪肉、果蔬日均价 (元/公斤) 图3.1：美国零售销售环比（%） 图3.2：美国零售销售分项环比（%） | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 官员 (2024票委*) | 主要观点 | | 1 | 美联储主席鲍威尔* | 鉴于劳动力市场的强劲表现和迄今为止在通胀方面取得的进展,最为稳妥 的做法是让限制性政策更长时间发挥作用,让数据和不断变化的前景指 我们作决策。 | | 2 | 欧央行主席拉加德 | 当前"极其关注"油价动向,若无重大冲击,欧央行将很快降息。 | | 3 | 美联储副主席杰弗逊* | 如果通胀未如预期回落,美联储准备将 ...

� 主力合约交易前20名会员成交及持仓情况 资料来源：容易船期、一德宏观战略部 1、芬兰运输工人工会（AKT）宣布将延长罢工一周（3月25日06:00--4月1日06:00），芬兰所有港口运营继续关闭。 资料来源： 博易大师、上海航运交易所、Wind 、一德宏观战略部 本周中国-红海航线投放运力为17831TEU，第14周将放缓至10158TEU。中国至欧洲航线计划第14周投放运力311820TEU，较本周减少 18016TEU，第15周计划投放运力271793TEU，供给收缩，有利于支撑运价。 →环比(右轴) -- 同比 12.00 3.00 2.50 10.00 2.00 1.50 8.00 1.00 6.00 0.50 0.00 4.00 -0.50 2.00 -1.00 -1.50 0.00 -2.00 8 -2.00 -2.50 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------------------------------|-------------- ...