| | | | | | | | | | 研究报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观战略部 | | | | | 宏观金融日报 | | | 2026 年 | 1 月 7 日 | | | | | | | 宏观金融日报 | | | | | | 撰写人： | 张 | 晨 | 陈 | 畅 | 刘晓艺 | 车美超 | 审核人： | | 寇宁 | | 从业号： | F0284349 | | F3019342 | | F3012593 | F0284346 | 从业号： | | F0262038 | | 交询号： | Z0010567 | | Z0013351 | | Z0012930 | Z0011885 | 交询号： | | Z0002132 | 5．2027 年票委、里士满联储主席巴尔金表示，考虑到美联储的就业和通胀目标面临的风 险，美联储短期利率将需要根据最新数据进行"精细调整"。美联储理事米兰表示，今年有 请参阅最后一页的免责声明 1 研究报告 一德期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】 38 号 当日要闻： ...

| 研究报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融日报 | 宏观战略部 | 2026 | 年 | 1 | 月 | 6 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观金融日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撰写人： | 张 | 晨 | 陈 | 畅 | 刘晓艺 | 车美超 | 审核人： | 寇宁 | 从业号： | F0284349 | F3019342 | F3012593 | F0284346 | 从业号： | F0262038 | | 交询号： | Z0010567 | Z0013351 | Z0012930 | Z0011885 | 交询号： | Z0002132 | | | | | | | | | | 一德期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】 38 号 当日要闻： 2.特朗普政府将与油企会面，讨论提升委内瑞拉石油产量据一位熟 ...

| 研究报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融日报 | 宏观战略部 | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 30 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观金融日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撰写人： | 张 | 晨 | 陈 | 畅 | 刘晓艺 | 车美超 | 审核人： | 寇宁 | 从业号： | F0284349 | F3019342 | F3012593 | F0284346 | 从业号： | F0262038 | | 交询号： | Z0010567 | Z0013351 | Z0012930 | Z0011885 | 交询号： | Z0002132 | | | | | | | | | | 4.央行副行长陆磊：新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。中国 ...

有色金属策略汇总 2025年4月14日 | 策略团队 | 王伟伟 | 吴玉新 | 谷静 | 张圣涵 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 | F0257412 | F0272619 | F3016722 | F3022628 | | 交易咨询号 | Z0001897 | Z0002861 | Z0013246 | Z0014427 | | 审核人：吴玉新 | | | | | 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号 有色&新材料品种观点 | 品种 | 策略 | 策略逻辑 | 周期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 宏观：美国对等关税引发市场恐慌，美国滞涨风险担忧升级，出现股债汇三杀的局面。周末关税豁 免面积继续扩大，对实体经济的冲击逐步降低，但避险情绪依然浓厚。铜基本面长期支撑犹在，铜 | | | 沪铜 | 区间震荡 | 精矿紧张格局持续，冶炼加工费TC环比继续走弱跌破-30美元/吨，国内社会库存快速下降对铜价底 | 中期 | | | | 部形成有利支撑。在关税冲突丌进一步恶化的情况下，铜价逐步回弻理性和基本面。沪铜围绕 ...

德期货【沥青】周报 汇报人: 陈通 ○●● 期货从业资格号:F3012946 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0013383 审核人:赵洪虎 2025年1月6日 @ 期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012]38号 一德期货 FIRST FUTURES 01. 本周观点 | | | | 11 6777 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青 | 指标 | 状态 | 研究 | | 供应 | 国产 | 上周BC沥青开工率-1.6%至25.3%，本周开工率预计提升,1月产量预计降幅5%。 | 利多 | | | 进口 | 2025年1月中国沥青进口量预计20万吨 | 中性 | | 需求 | 真实需求 | 上周BC隐含需求四周移动平均同比-4%;LZ隐含需求四周移动平均同比-7%。 | 中性 | | | 投机需求 | 贸易商库存备货气氛一般，投机需求一般 | 中性 | | 库存 | 炼 | 上周炼厂库存+0.62%至22.07%，本周预计开工提升，全国总需求环比减少，预计库存增加; | 中性 | | | 社会库存 | 上周沥青社会库存-0.24%,本周预计增加。 | 中生 | | 利润 | 沥青利润 | ...

Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is currently stable, with slight price increases observed in some regions for downstream products like wood planks[1] - New Zealand's expected monthly shipping volume is projected to be around 10,000 cubic meters[3] Price Trends - The BDI index shows fluctuations, with a notable increase in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating a recovery in shipping rates[23] - The average daily outbound volume in Fujian is expected to remain steady, while Guangdong's daily outbound volume is also projected to stabilize[6][7] Wood Prices - The current spot price for imported spruce logs is approximately €121 per cubic meter, while radiata pine logs are priced at $120 per cubic meter[63] - Radiata pine log prices at the Rizhao port have shown minor fluctuations, with recent prices around 750 to 920 per cubic meter depending on specifications[12][13] Inventory Levels - National port inventory levels for 2023 are projected to be lower than in 2022, indicating a tightening supply situation[73] - The inventory of radiata pine logs is expected to decrease, reflecting a shift in market dynamics[87] Market Outlook - Short-term market logic appears weak, suggesting that if prices rise significantly, hedging opportunities should be considered[21] - The overall market sentiment indicates cautious optimism, with potential for price recovery in the coming months[20]

宏观策略周报 ○●● 撰写人：寇宁 张晨 肖利娜 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | 寇宁 | | | | | 期货从业资格号： | | F0262038 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号： | | | Z0002132 | 张晨 期货从业资格号：F0284349 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0010567 肖利娜 期货从业资格号：F3019331 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013350 审核人：车美超 期货从业资格号：F0284346 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0011885 2024年6月17日 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】38号 01 大类资产走势回顾 02 国内经济跟踪 目录 CONTE NTS 03 海外经济跟踪 04 资产配置建议 05 本周重要数据及事件 目录 01. 大类资产走势回顾 国债市场延续上涨 内外商品走势分化 ロ 10日当周，国内金融市场继续延续债强股弱格局，沪深300、上证50指数延续上周末的回调走势，周跌幅较前周 ...

期货从业资格号：F3019331 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0010567 审核人：车美超 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0011885 宏观策略周报 免责声明 本研究报告由一德期货有限公司（以下简称"一德期货"）编制，本公司具有中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业 务资格（证监许可【2012】38号）。 本研究报告由一德期货向其服务对象提供，无意针对或打算违反任何国家、地区或其它法律管辖区域内的法律法 规。未经一德期货事先书面授权许可，任何机构或个人不得更改或以任何方式引用、转载、发送、传播或复制本报告。 本报告所载内容及观点基于研究人员认为可信的公开信息或实地调研资料，仅反映本报告作者的不同设想、见解 及分析方法，但一德期货对这些信息的准确性和完整性均不作任何保证，且一德期货不保证这些信息不会发生任何变 更。本报告中的信息以及所表达意见，仅作参考之用，不构成任何交易、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，一德期 货不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议作出任何担保，不对因使用本报告的材料而导致的损失负任何责任。服务对象不 应单纯依靠本报告而取代自身的独立判断。 o 公司总部地址：天津市和平区小白楼街解放北路188号信达广场16层 J 全 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic A-share market showed overall weakness due to insufficient confidence in the real estate new policy and a decline in domestic economic sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to stabilize above 3100 points [10] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly above 2.3%, while the domestic commodity index generally declined due to the drop in international commodities and a significant correction in black indices, although gold remained strong with a weekly increase of 0.39% [10][44] - The report notes that the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major and medium-sized cities significantly increased by 28.7% week-on-week, indicating a notable recovery in real estate transactions following the implementation of the new policy [27] Group 2 - The report states that the manufacturing PMI for May fell by 0.9 to 49.5, slightly below expectations, with both supply and demand declining, indicating a slowdown in production growth [50] - The report mentions that the non-manufacturing PMI for services rose by 0.2 points to 50.5, showing a slight acceleration in expansion, while the construction PMI fell by 1.9 points to 54.4, indicating that the support from real estate recovery and infrastructure is still not evident [25] - The report indicates that the domestic pork price continued to rise, with the average daily price increasing by 7.54% year-on-year, while vegetable prices saw a significant decline, with an average daily price decrease of 3.07% [30] Group 3 - The report highlights that the U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to the previous quarter's growth of 3.4% [59] - The report notes that the core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, remaining in line with expectations, but the core PCE's month-on-month growth of 0.2% was the smallest increase of the year [33] - The report indicates that the Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% in May, better than the market expectation of 2.5%, with core CPI also showing an increase [62]

张晨 期货从业资格号：F0284349 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010567 审核人：寇宁 期货从业资格号：F0262038 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0002132 2024年6月2日 全球主要资产走势回顾 02 海外热点跟踪 美国截至5月25日当周初请失 业金人数升至21.9万，高于预期及 修正后的前值，但数据仍位于年内 21-23万人主要波动区间内，美国 就业市场总体仍延续偏强态势。 图2.2：美国核心PCE物价指数当月同比与环比（右轴）（%） 美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率回 落至2.75%，续创紧缩以来新低；月 率降至0.25%，为年内新低，但距离 去年下半年以来低位水平尚有距离。 总体而言，结束了一季度令人失望的 去通胀停滞后，联储官员降息信心得 到些许喘息，但降息落地尚需新的通 胀下行趋势形成。 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 的 3 | 次水平。此外，加息定价消失，市场对于降息起始时点预测前移至9月，6、 | | 7 | 月两次会 ...