行业日报 | 北交所 震荡调整，关注拐点信号 北交所市场点评——20250730 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：7 月 30 日北证 A 股成交金额达 270.1 亿元，较上 一交易日增加 5.9 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1439.64，下跌 1.75%， PE_TTM 为 67.33 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2459.66，下跌 1.57%； 2）个股层面：当日北交所 268 家公司中 81 家上涨，4 家平盘，183 家 下跌。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：云创数据（28.1%）、科力股份（9.6%）、 骑士乳业（9.3%）、峆一药业（9.2%）、大禹生物（7.6%）；跌幅前五的 个股分别为：基康仪器（-12.0%）、五新隧装（-8.7%）、铁拓机械（-8.1%）、 惠同新材（-7.0%）、纳科诺尔（-5.7%）。 新闻汇总：1）智谱发布 Agent 大模型 使用价格再降：在已公布的 "原生智能 体" 或 Agent 专用模型中，GLM-4.5 目前价格最低，这一低价策略将对市场产 生一定冲击；2）国家发改委：在需要长期布局的领域 更好发挥基金作为长期 资本、耐心资本的跨周期和逆周期调节作用 ...

| 11 | 920005 | N鼎佳 | 64.63 | 479.12% | 10.60亿 | 6759.94万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 836942 | 恒立钻具 | 57.90 | -11.39% | 8.11亿 | -8399.30万 | | 3 | 835174 | 五新随装 | 64.67 | -7.19% | 5.83亿 | -4485.97万 | | 4 839493 | | 并行科技 | 150.44 | 1.73% | 4.81亿 | 6488.06万 | | 5 | 920060 | 万源通 | 35.05 | -4.08% | 4.65亿 | -2269.17万 | | 6 | 832786 | 骑士乳业 | 11.73 | -7.78% | 4.44亿 | -7079.63万 | | 7 | 832522 | 纳科诺尔 | 58.69 | -1.92% | 4.38亿 | 211.72万 | | 8 | 430017 | 量昊医药 | 25.28 | 8.03% | 4.34亿 | 2627.15万 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The low-altitude economy is developing well, with strong support from government policies, particularly in emergency equipment and low-altitude applications [3][4] - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by competitive advantages in exports and domestic demand [4] Weekly Market Review - From July 20 to July 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76%. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.86 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [12][14] - Sub-sectors such as general equipment, specialized equipment, rail transit equipment II, engineering machinery, and automation equipment saw respective increases of 2.32%, 1.98%, 3.02%, 5.34%, and 1.48% [12][15] Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy sector is bolstered by various government initiatives, including the "Three-Year Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Emergency Equipment Industry in Hunan Province (2025-2027)", aiming for an industry revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2027 [3][25] - The mechanical equipment sector is supported by a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which is expected to enhance the competitive position of domestic leading enterprises [4] Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, Huasheng Group, and Nairui Radar [5] - In the mechanical equipment sector, recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli for engineering machinery, and Huazhong CNC and Kede CNC for industrial mother machines [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The weekly average trading volume on the North Exchange reached 31.08 billion yuan, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous week, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.85% [5][12]. - Key stocks that performed well included Hengli Drilling Tools (up 184.1%), Tietuo Machinery (up 64.9%), and Jikang Instruments (up 51.1%) [12][15]. - Significant news includes a record-breaking humanoid robot project by UBTECH worth 90.51 million yuan and the commencement of a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume was 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% week-on-week increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.3% [5][6]. - The North Exchange 50 index saw a weekly increase of 2.85% [5]. Key News and Policies - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH set a global record with a contract worth 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year [14]. - The 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has officially commenced, expected to boost the infrastructure sector [16]. Core Driving Factors - Regulatory deepening and institutional optimization are progressing alongside the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which showcased advancements in AI and robotics [26]. - The infrastructure sector is gaining momentum due to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with increased activity in related industries [27]. - Market sentiment is improving with a return of liquidity, although volatility remains low [28]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Focus on sectors aligned with new productive forces, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and new energy equipment, prioritizing companies with technological barriers and scarce products in the A-share market [29]. - Emphasize growth companies with revenue and profit growth exceeding 20% and R&D intensity above 5%, while avoiding high-valuation sectors lacking performance support [29]. - Monitor event-driven catalysts, including project announcements and mergers, which may disrupt the current low-volatility environment [29].

Group 1 - The report highlights the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, which involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2][13][14] - There are 10 key companies related to water conservancy and tunnel construction, with a total market capitalization of 34.762 billion yuan as of July 25, 2025 [2][12][16] - Key companies include Weixin Tunnel Equipment, Jikang Technology, and Hengli Drill Tools, which are involved in various aspects of construction and technology services [2][19][22] Group 2 - The five major industries, including high-end equipment, information technology, chemical new materials, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biology, all experienced positive average weekly returns, with high-end equipment leading at +5.48% [3][25] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these industries have increased, with high-end equipment reaching a median of 50.7X and information technology at 92.7X [3][27][29] Group 3 - In the technology sector, 107 out of 150 companies saw an increase in stock prices, with a median increase of +1.47%, and notable performers included Hengli Drill Tools (+184.05%) and Jikang Technology (+51.12%) [4][40][42] - The overall market capitalization of the technology sector rose from 468.617 billion yuan to 485.780 billion yuan, with the median market capitalization increasing from 2.370 billion yuan to 2.452 billion yuan [4][43][48] Group 4 - Companies such as Minshida and Parallel Technology reported significant growth in their semi-annual reports, with Minshida achieving a total revenue of 237 million yuan (+27.91%) and a net profit of 63 million yuan (+42.28%) [5][62] - Parallel Technology reported a total revenue of 458 million yuan (+69.27%) and a net profit of 5 million yuan (+20.05%) for the first half of 2025 [5][62]

Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with a peak of 30% for Tianrun Technology (天润科技) on July 25, 2025[8] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of July 25, 2025[6] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for companies listed on the North Exchange varies significantly across industries, with some sectors showing a PE as high as 516.07[12] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks on July 25, 2025, include Tianrun Technology with a 30% increase and a market capitalization of 29.19 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the worst-performing stock, Jikang Technology (基康技术), saw a decline of 12.56% with a market capitalization of 52.76 billion CNY[9] - The average daily change for the North Exchange was notably higher than that of the A-share market, indicating a more volatile trading environment[7] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition[13] - Market volatility remains a significant concern, impacting investor sentiment and stock performance across various sectors[13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [12] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is expected to significantly benefit the engineering machinery sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the highest investment project in a single country [5][6] - The project will require a high degree of mechanization, with a projected demand for engineering machinery equipment amounting to about 120 billion yuan, which is estimated to be 10% of the total investment [5][6] - The geological conditions favor the use of tunnel boring machines (TBM), leading to an expected increase in the proportion of TBM construction methods [4][5] Summary by Sections General Engineering Machinery - General engineering machinery such as excavators, cranes, concrete machinery, and aerial work platforms will see increased demand due to the project's construction cycle and local conditions [4] - The demand for larger and electric equipment is anticipated to be higher, reflecting greater profitability for companies [4] Tunnel Boring Machinery - The project will utilize TBM and other drilling equipment, with expectations of more extensive tunnel construction compared to previous projects [4][5] - The average length of tunnels in similar projects has been noted to be around 16.7 kilometers, with the Yarlung Zangbo project expected to have even longer tunnels [4][5] Large Cable Cranes - Large cable cranes will be essential for transporting concrete and installing metal structures in the challenging mountainous terrain [4] Key Beneficiaries - Core companies to focus on include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and others for general engineering machinery; China Railway Engineering Corporation and others for tunnel boring machinery; and Farlantech for cable cranes [6]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, known as the "Yaxi Project," has commenced construction, marking it as a monumental engineering feat comparable to the Three Gorges Project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and a development scale of nearly 60 million kilowatts, equivalent to 2.7 Three Gorges plants [4][8][10] - The project is expected to significantly boost demand across various sectors, including cement, explosives, foundation treatment, and tunnel equipment, with substantial annual demand increases projected [4][10][24] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Analysis - The Yaxi Project is anticipated to drive an average annual cement demand of 4.85 million tons, accounting for 36.36% of Tibet's 2024 cement production, translating to a revenue space of 2.92 billion yuan annually [10][14] - The project will also require an average annual explosive demand of 138,500 tons, representing a 267% increase over Tibet's 2024 explosive sales, with a corresponding revenue space of 3 billion yuan [10][20] - The complexity of the geological environment poses significant challenges for foundation treatment, with an estimated market space of over 5.5 billion yuan annually [10][22] - The project will necessitate over 20 tunnel boring machines, indicating a strong demand for tunnel equipment [10][23] Industry Chain Investment Potential - Key players in the industry chain include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, Tibet Tianlu, Huaxin Cement, and others, with a focus on their respective segments such as main construction, cement, explosives, foundation treatment, and tunnel equipment [10][24] - The project is expected to enhance the profitability of these companies, although there is a need to monitor potential mean reversion risks due to high valuations [10][24]

截至7月23日，北交所融资融券余额合计61.85亿元，较前一交易日增加1102.32万元，其中，融资余额 61.85亿元，较前一交易日增加1138.27万元，为连续3个交易日增加；融券余额为25.12万元，较前一交 易日减少35.96万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至7月23日，北交所股票中，融资余额居前的为锦波生物、艾融软件、贝 特瑞，最新融资余额分别为3.78亿元、1.66亿元、1.57亿元，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术 平均值为1.16%，最新融资余额占流通市值比例居前的有胜业电气、科拜尔、威贸电子等，占比分别为 4.85%、3.34%、3.07%。 北交所股票中，7月23日共有127只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在百万元以上的有48只，基康技术融资 净买入额居首，当日净买入2032.54万元，其次是五新隧装、同力股份，融资净买入金额分别为1441.11 万元、730.55万元，融资净买入金额居前的还有开特股份、迅安科技、威博液压等。融资净卖出金额居 前的股票为万源通、天罡股份、中设咨询等，融资净卖出金额分别为1216.32万元、1193.10万元、 627.04万元。 分行业统计，获融资净买 ...

| 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖出金额（万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖 | | 元） | 元） | | 买一 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 3931.11 | 4058.39 | | 买二 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第二证券营业部 | 3189.81 | 2709.61 | | 买三 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第一证券营业部 | 3088.27 | 2060.49 | | 买四 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第一证券营业部 | 3035.51 | 1596.52 | | 买五 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 部 | 1985.26 | 1233.76 | | 卖一 | 海通证券股份有限公司广州东风西路营业部 | 83.61 | 5003.18 | | 卖二 | 华鑫证券有限责任公司佛山顺德近良路营业部 | 7.56 | 4832.23 | | 卖三 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 3931.11 | 4058.39 | | 卖四 | 中信证券股份 ...