业绩稳健增长，加速机器人和低空领域的布局 敏实集团(00425) 证券研究报告 汽车 / 公司点评 / 2025.08.31 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-08-29 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 32.88 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.66 | | 每股净资产(元) | 18.80 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.66 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -3% 34% 72% 110% 148% 185% 敏实集团 恒生指数 汽车 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《业绩稳健提升，布局人形机器人与低空 飞行器赛道》 2025-04-02 2. 《深耕零部件行业三十载，全球领先外饰 供应商》 2024-10-23 3. 《收入端同比高增长，电池盒业务不断取 得突破》 2023-03-24 ❖ 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，2025 年上半年公司实现总营收 122.87 亿 元，同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on the chemical materials industry, marking a shift from traditional methods to AI-driven approaches that enhance efficiency and innovation in material development [1][6][10]. Group 1: AI and Industry Transformation - AI models and applications have rapidly evolved, leading to a surge of innovative products and marking a technological turning point for the industry [1]. - The integration of AI, embodied intelligence (EI), and big data is accelerating the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in the chemical materials sector [1]. - China is positioned as the largest market and manufacturing base, with abundant application scenarios for AI in material science [1]. Group 2: Collaboration Between Material and AI Companies - Material companies are increasingly collaborating with AI firms to enhance research and development processes [3]. - The shift from traditional experimental methods to AI-enabled approaches is expected to streamline the entire material development chain from research to industrialization [1][6]. Group 3: Expert Insights and Reports - Experts from various institutions shared insights on the opportunities and challenges posed by AI in the chemical materials industry during the 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference [4][6][10]. - The reports highlighted the need for companies to overcome technical bottlenecks, data silos, and high costs to fully leverage AI in material development [6][8]. Group 4: AI-Driven Innovations in Material Development - AI is reshaping production optimization and predictive maintenance across seven key areas, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency gains [6]. - The development of high-performance catalytic materials is crucial for sustainable development, with AI facilitating faster and more cost-effective research processes [7]. - AI and automation are being combined to enhance process development, significantly improving research and development efficiency [8]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Case Studies - The construction of "AI + Materials" infrastructure is essential for transitioning to data-driven and model-assisted material development [9]. - Specific case studies demonstrate the successful application of AI in predicting material properties and optimizing formulations, showcasing the potential of AI in polymer research [10]. Group 6: Upcoming Events and Opportunities - The 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference will explore new opportunities in emerging industries such as AI, embodied robots, and new energy vehicles [11][12]. - The conference aims to gather industry leaders, experts, and stakeholders to discuss the future of polymer materials and technology [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in 1H25, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by international market expansion and strong battery box sales [1][2] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 12.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.28 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from international markets was 7.98 billion yuan, growing 21.6% year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 4.31 billion yuan, declining 4.9% year-on-year [1] - Battery box revenue was 3.58 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 49.8% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Revenue from aluminum parts, plastic parts, and metal trim was 2.47 billion yuan, 2.87 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 0.9%, and 4.7% [1] - The decline in plastic parts revenue growth was attributed to reduced order demand from downstream customers [1] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 28.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The gross margins for battery boxes, aluminum parts, plastic parts, and metal trim were 23.0%, 32.6%, 26.1%, and 28.1%, respectively, with varying year-on-year changes [1] Cost Management - Sales, management, and R&D expenses were 510 million yuan, 800 million yuan, and 730 million yuan, with corresponding expense ratios of 4.2%, 6.5%, and 5.9%, showing a decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in sales expenses by 3.6% was mainly due to the easing of the Red Sea incident's impact and a reduction in unit transportation costs [1] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for 1H25 was approximately 900 million yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year [1] Strategic Outlook - The company has raised its annual business target to 16 billion yuan, with a backlog of over 260 billion yuan in orders as of June [2] - The company is focusing on emerging businesses, including collaborations with major robotics clients and the development of AI liquid cooling systems [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a target price increase of 26% to 38.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 10.6% from the current stock price [2]

（原标题：招商证券：升敏实集团(00425)目标价至42港元 短期警惕获利回吐风险） 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，敏实集团(00425)上半年净利润12.8亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长19.5%，按季增长2%，符合市场预期， 但高于该行预期，业绩受惠于降本增效及规模效应。公司亦长线布局人形机器人、低空经济、AI液冷等前景广阔的新赛道。报告指，考虑降本能 力突出，上调2025-2027财年净利润预测4%、3%及3%，估值基期切换至2026财年，目标价上调至42港元，相当于14倍2026财年 市盈率 ，估值为 公司历史平均估值。自该行第一季报告提示切换新赛道加速价值重估之后，股价已近翻倍，短期警惕获利回吐风险。 ...

（原标题：招银国际：上调敏实集团(00425)目标价至38港元 订单积压增加） 智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，料敏实集团(00425)今年至2027年毛利率介于28.5%至28.7%，低于2024年28.9%，因利润率略低的电池 外壳产品销售占占比上升。该行料公司同期净利润同比升15%至19%，分别达到27亿，31亿及37亿元人民币。该行维持对敏实"买入"评级，目标 价从26港元上调至38港元。 敏实上半年关键经营指标，包括新业务订单、研发、资本支出、本地化及现金流表现稳健，进一步增强该行对其营运效率能力的信心，并印证该 行认为敏实在全球汽车零部件行业中定位优于多数同业的观点。该行预测，基于不断增加的订单积压，敏实在明年及后年收入将分别同比增长 12%及13%，对机器人及电动垂直起降飞行器产品的预期贡献极小。如有任何新业务达到拐点，收入增长可能更高。 ...

招商证券发布研报称，敏实集团(00425)上半年净利润12.8亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长19.5%，按季增 长2%，符合市场预期，但高于该行预期，业绩受惠于降本增效及规模效应。公司亦长线布局人形机器 人、低空经济、AI液冷等前景广阔的新赛道。报告指，考虑降本能力突出，上调2025-2027财年净利润 预测4%、3%及3%，估值基期切换至2026财年，目标价上调至42港元，相当于14倍2026财年市盈率，估 值为公司历史平均估值。自该行第一季报告提示切换新赛道加速价值重估之后，股价已近翻倍，短期警 惕获利回吐风险。 ...

中金公司发布研报称，敏实集团(00425)上半年营业收入122.9亿元人民币(下同)，同比升10.8%，归母净 利润12.8亿元，同比升19.5%。公司上调敏实全年新业务承接目标额至160亿元，截至6月底，公司累计 在手订单超过了2,600亿元，该行认为有望支撑公司业绩稳健增长;目标价上调26%至38.5港元，予"跑赢 行业"评级。 ...

中金公司（601995）发布研报称，敏实集团(00425)上半年营业收入122.9亿元人民币(下同)，同比升 10.8%，归母净利润12.8亿元，同比升19.5%。公司上调敏实全年新业务承接目标额至160亿元，截至6月 底，公司累计在手订单超过了2,600亿元，该行认为有望支撑公司业绩稳健增长;目标价上调26%至38.5 港元，予"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

里昂发布研报称，考虑到敏实集团(00425)的新订单，上调公司今明两年的净利润预测1%及2%，惟降 2027年盈测预测2%，以反映毛利率预测。由于流动性持续复苏，加上业绩扩展多元化，将目标价由25 港元上调至36港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 敏实上半年毛利率为28.3%，同比下降0.2%。不过，该行指出因为OEM愿意补偿公司的关税损失，且产 品组合已经稳定，预计公司下半年的毛利率将有所改善。另外，公司发展更加国际化，来自中国的收入 在上半年降至35%，而去年同期为40.8%，该行料这个数据将在未来几年进一步降至30%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite a slight increase in profit forecasts for the next two years, the long-term profit outlook for the company has been downgraded due to expected changes in gross margin [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 25 to HKD 36, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 28.3%, a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but improvements are expected in the second half due to compensation from OEMs for tariff losses and a stabilized product mix [1] Group 2 - The company's revenue from China decreased to 35% in the first half of the year, down from 40.8% in the same period last year, with expectations that this figure will further decline to 30% in the coming years [1]