Investment Highlights - China Jinmao (00817) is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 1.86, reflecting a 10% discount to the 2025 NAV [1] - The company shows significant positive changes in management and strategy, with manageable historical burdens and potential for incremental flexibility [1] Management and Strategy - The new management has defined a strategic direction of "one core and three focuses," centering on development business and enhancing product strength through four major product lines [1] - The company aims to accelerate project openings and cash collection while planning to resolve 80% of its existing issues by 2025-2027 [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in contract sales, attributed to improved land acquisition intensity, focus on core cities, and enhanced opening efficiency [1] - The company has approximately CNY 320 billion in unsold value as of the first half of 2025, with an expected average gross margin of around 18% [1] Market Position and Valuation - China Jinmao is considered a key target in the next round of real estate sector revaluation, with positive expectations for the sector's performance over the next 6-12 months [2] - The estimated NAV at the end of 2025 is CNY 25.6 billion, with potential for significant growth if stable land acquisition continues beyond 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is CNY 0.10 and CNY 0.11 respectively, with a CAGR of 6.5% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The company is currently trading at a 30% discount to the 2025 NAV and 0.45 times P/B [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has initiated coverage on China Jinmao (00817) with an "outperform sector" rating and a target price of HKD 1.86, reflecting a 10% discount to the forecasted 2025 net asset value (NAV) per share [1] Company Summary - The company is experiencing significant positive changes in management and strategy, with controllable historical burdens and expected incremental flexibility [1] - Improved management and strategic focus provide a foundation for value reconstruction, with visible incremental sales flexibility and manageable risks in existing land reserves [1] - CICC projects the company's NAV to reach RMB 25.6 billion by the end of 2025, with substantial growth potential in per-share NAV if stable land acquisition investments continue from 2026 onwards [1] Industry Summary - CICC holds a positive outlook for the real estate sector over the next 6 to 12 months, particularly for companies with strong organizational management and stable fundamentals [1] - China Jinmao is identified as a key investment target within this sector, benefiting from favorable market conditions [1] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of RMB 0.10 and RMB 0.11 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: CICC has initiated coverage on China Jinmao (00817) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 1.86, reflecting a 10% discount to the projected net asset value (NAV) per share for 2025 [1] - Positive changes in management and strategy are noted, with manageable historical burdens and expected incremental flexibility, supported by improved management and focused strategy for value reconstruction [1] - CICC has a positive outlook for the real estate sector over the next 6 to 12 months, highlighting companies with strong organizational management and stable fundamentals as key investment targets, with China Jinmao being a major candidate [1] Group 2 - Based on conservative housing price assumptions, CICC estimates that the company's NAV will reach RMB 25.6 billion by the end of 2025, with significant growth potential if stable land acquisition investments continue beyond 2026 [1] - CICC forecasts earnings per share of RMB 0.10 and RMB 0.11 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - The target price of HKD 1.86 is based on a 10% discount to the 2025 NAV, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.6 times, indicating a potential upside of 29% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is accelerating financing through various channels such as credit bonds, overseas bonds, and asset securitization to address year-end debt maturity pressures and prepare for future development amid increased supply of quality land parcels [1][3][10]. Financing Trends - In September, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 561 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 31%, with credit bond financing alone amounting to 322 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 89.5% [3][9]. - The average issuance term for credit bonds in September was 3.65 years, indicating a trend towards longer financing terms, which helps optimize debt structure and alleviate short-term repayment pressures [7]. Company Financing Activities - Several companies are actively issuing bonds, including China Merchants Shekou with a planned issuance of 40 billion yuan at a coupon rate of 1.90%, and China Vanke with a bond issuance of up to 24 billion yuan [6][8]. - Notable issuances include Beijing Urban Construction Group's successful issuance of 18 billion yuan in medium-term notes and Poly Developments' 150 billion yuan bond application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6][8]. Challenges in Sales and Cash Flow - Despite the positive financing trends, real estate companies face significant challenges in sales, with a reported 8.4% year-on-year decline in funds received by real estate developers from January to September, particularly in deposits and pre-sales [9][10]. - The ongoing sluggish sales market continues to exert pressure on the overall cash flow of real estate companies, making it crucial for them to balance external financing with internal cash generation [10]. Debt Restructuring Progress - Some distressed real estate companies have made substantial progress in debt restructuring, with over 75% of creditors approving restructuring plans for companies like Longfor Group and Sunac China [8].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對任何就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔責任。 China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited 中國金茂控股集團有限公 司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代號：00817） 誠如該公告所披露，一份當中載有關於補充協議二及經續期平安金融服務框架協 議的詳情、獨立董事委員會函件、獨立財務顧問函件的通函（「通函」），連同股東 特別大會通告將於該公告刊發後15個營業日內（即2025年10月22日或以前）寄發。 由於需要更多時間落實將載入通函的若干資料，通函的寄發日期將延後至不遲於 2025年11月4日。 承董事會命 中國金茂控股集團有限公司 主席 陶天海 香港，2025年10月23日 於本公告日期，本公司董事為執行董事陶天海先生（主席）、張輝先生及喬曉潔女 士；非執行董事崔焱先生、劉文先生、陳一江先生及王葳女士；以及獨立非執行 董事劉峰先生、孫文德先生、高世斌先生及鍾偉先生。 延遲寄發通函 茲提述中國金茂控股集團有限公司（「本 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's eighth land auction concluded with Jinmao and Shanghai Baoye winning the Baoshan Yangxing plot for 1.751 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 14,600 yuan per square meter, marking Jinmao's second successful land acquisition in Shanghai this year [1] - The market's attention is more focused on Jinmao's luxury project, Puyuan, which sold out in 26 minutes at its launch, yet over 20% of its units remain unsold two months later [1][14] Group 1: Land Acquisition - Jinmao, in collaboration with its financial partner, won the Hongkou District land plot at a price of 8.96435 billion yuan, with a floor price of 117,500 yuan per square meter, achieving a premium rate of 38.2%, the highest in the country for the year [2] - The high-priced land acquisition is seen as a significant opportunity for Jinmao, especially given the strategic location and mature surrounding amenities [5] Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Reaction - Since 2015, Jinmao's development in Shanghai has faced challenges, with limited core area projects and a decline in the high-end product line "Jinmao Mansion" [4] - The luxury market has cooled since 2023, prompting Jinmao to launch multiple "Mansion" series products to boost sales, with some projects undergoing name changes mid-launch [4][5] - Puyuan, as a new high-end product line, aims to surpass previous offerings by enhancing technology and community engagement, with initial pricing expectations exceeding 180,000 yuan per square meter, but ultimately set at 168,000 yuan [8][11] Group 3: Sales Data and Market Concerns - Despite initial sales success, net signing data shows discrepancies, with only 77 out of 99 units sold as of October 23, indicating over 20% of units remain available [14] - Abnormalities in net signing data raise questions about the authenticity of the sales figures, with reports of cancellations and a high abandonment rate among potential buyers [16][18] - The project's high density and limited unit types may affect its appeal, as the luxury positioning may not align with buyer expectations [19]

Core Insights - The recent launch of the "Twin Stars" project in Huangshanmu Store, Chaoyang District, Beijing, achieved significant sales on opening day, with sales of 56.5 billion and 45.65 billion respectively for the two projects [1][2]. Project Details - The two projects, "Zijing Chenyuan" and "Puyue," are part of a larger land parcel sold for 12.6 billion, which includes residential and educational land [2][3]. - The land was acquired by a consortium including China State Construction, Jinmao, and Yuexiu, with a floor price of 54,500 yuan per square meter, setting a record for total price in Chaoyang District [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Huangshanmu Store area is the only newly added residential land in the Chaoyang District in the past decade, located between the Fourth and Fifth Ring Roads, enhancing its attractiveness [3]. - The projects target high-end improvement customers, with Zijing Chenyuan offering 815 units and Puyue providing 426 units, featuring various spacious layouts [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the new housing market in Chaoyang is intensifying, with multiple high-end projects in the vicinity, including those by Poly and China Overseas [7][8]. - The increase in supply and the implementation of new housing policies have led to heightened competition among developers, with more options available for buyers [8].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 17% [1] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in 30 core cities is 11% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value are China Overseas Land & Investment (112.4 billion), China Merchants Shekou (94.1 billion), and Greentown China (63.2 billion) [2][90] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first nine months of 2025, the supply of land area in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 7.2% [11] - The supply of residential land area in 100 cities decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area decrease of 6.2% [20] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land - The average transaction floor price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 17.1% year-on-year, reaching 6,847 yuan per square meter [55] - The average transaction floor price in first-tier cities was 41,137 yuan per square meter, up 42% year-on-year [66] 3. Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 63.9% year-on-year increase in newly added land reserve value, totaling 847.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [82] - The newly added land reserve area for the top 50 companies increased by 5.5% year-on-year [87] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In September 2025, the transaction area of residential land in the 30 core cities increased by 16% year-on-year, with a total transaction price of 1,358 billion [96] - The total transaction area for the first nine months was 7,430 million square meters, accounting for 48.1% of the total transaction area in 100 cities [104] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [118] - Look for companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [118] - Consider the long-term development potential of property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [118]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a counter-trend rally, with notable increases in share prices for several major companies following the release of a government action plan aimed at stabilizing the real estate investment scale in Shanghai [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Country Garden shares rose by 3.5%, while Sunac China and Agile Group increased by 2.5%. Vanke Enterprises saw a nearly 2% rise, and other companies like New City Development, Longfor Group, and China Overseas Macro Holdings also reported gains exceeding 1% [2] - The overall trend indicates a positive market response among real estate stocks despite broader market challenges [1] Group 2: Government Policy - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued a notification to promote high-quality development in the construction industry, emphasizing the need to stabilize real estate investment and strengthen the foundational market in Shanghai [1] - The plan aims to facilitate the construction of "good houses" and provide application scenarios for good design, construction, and services [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Huatai Securities' research report highlights that the sales performance of "good houses" is significantly better than the average, suggesting that companies with strong product capabilities may achieve better sales conversion and more stable cash flow [1] - The report posits that product strength could become a core competitive advantage for real estate companies, reshaping their market positions and competitive landscape [1] - Huatai Securities continues to recommend real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products" as a strategic investment focus [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao [11] Core Insights - China Jinmao is a state-owned enterprise focused on high-quality residential development, benefiting from strong support from its major shareholder, Sinochem Group, and internal management reforms [3][7] - The company has entered a new development phase, with significant improvements in sales performance, achieving a total sales amount of 807 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, marking its first entry into the top ten sales rankings [7][28] - The company aims to resolve 80% of its historical issues within three years, with a new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" receiving positive market feedback [3][10] Overview - China Jinmao is a central enterprise urban operator under Sinochem Group, focusing on high-quality real estate development. The company has historically acquired land at low costs through differentiated models, creating a competitive edge with its "technology residential" products [7][16] - In 2024, Sinochem Group provided perpetual bonds and shareholder loans to support the company, helping it navigate through difficulties [7][21] - The company has seen a significant improvement in its operational performance, with a comprehensive gross profit margin of 16.2% in H1 2025, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 [7][30] Resource Management - The company has significantly improved its land acquisition strategy, with a land acquisition intensity of 65% in Q1-Q3 2025, ranking among the top enterprises in the industry [8][46] - The focus on major cities has increased, with over 80% of new land acquisitions being small-scale projects, reflecting a more cautious risk appetite [8][46] - As of mid-2025, the company has an unsold inventory value of approximately 320 billion yuan, with about 30% located in first-tier cities [8][46] Efficiency and Operations - The launch of the new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" has received favorable market reception, with multiple projects achieving strong sales performance [9][27] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with a significant decrease in financing costs to 3.0% in H1 2025, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of managing existing burdens while creating value through new land acquisitions. The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability, with projected net profits of 7.3 billion, 10.9 billion, and 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][30]