Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Core Insights - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [3] - The equity sales for the same group reached 132.14 billion yuan [3] - The top ten companies by sales include Poly Development, China Overseas, China Resources, Greentown China, China Travel Investment, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, Jianfa Real Estate, Vanke, and Binjiang Group, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [3] Sales Performance - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, also showing a decline [4] - The ranking of companies has shifted significantly compared to the previous year, with Vanke dropping from 5th to 9th place, while China Travel Investment emerged as a "dark horse" in 5th place [3][4] Market Trends - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active following the September 2024 policy changes [6] - The industry is undergoing an adjustment phase, with a decrease in the number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales, while those achieving over 5 billion yuan have increased, indicating a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition" [6] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 saw year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with approximately 8.1 million square meters of new residential sales in 50 key cities, while the second-hand housing market saw a notable increase, with transaction volumes rising by 33% year-on-year [7][8] - The second-hand market's recovery is contributing to stabilizing market expectations, with some cities experiencing a reduction in listing volumes [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has been signaling a focus on stabilizing market expectations, with recent policy measures including interest rate cuts and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [9] - The upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, and the introduction of quality projects could maintain a certain level of market activity in core cities [9] - As of the end of 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have made progress in debt restructuring, but the challenge remains in converting financial relief into sustainable operational capacity [9]

Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]

百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose this month, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 6.85% to close at 27,387.11 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.67% to 5,718.18 points, and the China Enterprises Index up by 4.53% to 9,317.09 points [2] - The Hang Seng Index showed resilience, climbing from a low of 26,498.35 points at the beginning of the month to a recent high of 28,056.10 points before a slight pullback [3] Sector Performance - High-performing sectors this month included AI, consumer goods, and real estate, driven by favorable policies and strong earnings [4] - Notable stock performances included: - Zhizhu (02513.HK) surged by 94.66%, recognized as the "first global large model stock" with strong market confidence in its AGI technology [4] - Woan Robotics (06600.HK) also rose by 94.67%, benefiting from AI and smart manufacturing policies [4] - Mingming Hen Mang (01768.HK) increased by 73.71%, supported by impressive revenue growth of 75.2% year-on-year [4][5] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869.HK) saw a 61.90% increase, driven by rising demand for optical fiber due to AI computing infrastructure [5] Declining Stocks - Declining stocks included: - Zhu Feng Gold (01815.HK), which fell by 22.13% due to fluctuations in international gold prices [8] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) decreased by 16.46% as lithium carbonate futures prices dropped significantly [9] Institutional Insights - Institutional perspectives suggest a continuation of the spring market rally, focusing on dual drivers of policy and earnings [10] - Everbright Securities noted that the Hong Kong market is transitioning from being driven by funds to being driven by earnings, with a structural rebound expected in Q1 [10] - CITIC Securities highlighted three key investment directions: "14th Five-Year Plan" policies, sectors benefiting from policy reversals, and areas likely to gain from the spring rally [10] Education and Technology Sector - The education sector saw significant gains, with China Spring (01969.HK) rising by 22.76% due to AI integration in educational applications [11] - Longfei Optical Fiber (06889.HK) also experienced a slight increase, reflecting ongoing high demand for computing power [13] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market faced volatility, with gold and other precious metals experiencing significant price fluctuations, impacting related stocks negatively [15][18] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced margin adjustments to curb excessive speculation, which may further influence market stability [17]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend with all three major indices closing higher: Hang Seng Index up 2.58% at 27,826.91 points, Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.53% at 5,900.16 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.89% at 9,512.24 points [2] - Leading sectors included optical communications, oil, gold, telecommunications, and real estate, while tea and aviation stocks faced downward pressure [3] Optical Communications - Demand for AI infrastructure has spurred the optical communications industry, with Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) leading the sector, closing up 15.43% at 75.20 HKD [4][5] - Corning, a major player in the fiber optics market, saw a single-day increase of over 15%, reaching a historical high, following a long-term agreement with Meta for the procurement of $6 billion worth of fiber optic cables by 2030 [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical risks have heightened energy security expectations, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both reaching historical highs, closing up 4.85% and 4.99% respectively [5][6] - The U.S. military's recent military exercises in the Middle East have raised concerns about energy supply stability, contributing to the rise in oil stocks [6] Gold Market - The weakening U.S. dollar has stimulated international gold prices, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rising 10.65% [7] - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2023, pushing gold prices above $5,200 per ounce [7] Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is entering a new phase of "deep integration," with China Telecom (00728.HK) rising 6.27% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the three major operators have added 108,000 data center racks, indicating a shift in focus from "broad coverage" to "deep integration" [9] Real Estate - Regulatory optimizations have boosted confidence in the real estate sector, with China Jinmao (00817.HK) rising 11.92% [11] - Feedback from multiple real estate companies indicates that the regulatory body has lifted the monthly reporting requirements for most firms, enhancing market expectations for liquidity and operational environment improvements [11] Individual Stock Movements - Wuneng Zhixing (00800.HK) rose 2.11% as it prepares to launch autonomous buses in Abu Dhabi [17][18] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) increased by 4.44%, with its AI product, Keling, surpassing 12 million monthly active users and achieving a 350% growth in paid users [19]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - Most property stocks in Hong Kong rose, with China Jinmao (00817) up 7.95%, Greentown China (03900) up 5.79%, and China Overseas Macro Yang Group (00081) up 4.62%. Vanke Enterprises (02202) also saw a gain of 2.49% following significant progress in debt resolution, with the extension proposals for two medium-term notes totaling 5.7 billion yuan approved [1][1]. - Pop Mart (09992) increased by over 4.8%, reflecting confidence in its development as it recently repurchased shares for the first time since early 2024, which is expected to attract more investors [1][1]. - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) rose over 4.7% after announcing plans to invest approximately 4.37 billion USD (about 30.56 billion yuan) in a new aluminum project in Indonesia [1][1]. Group 2: Notable Company Announcements - Alibaba Health (00241) rose over 3.3% after launching a new feature for its AI medical application "Hydrogen Ion" [2][2]. - GCL Global (GCL.US) increased by 9.91% ahead of its earnings call scheduled for January 30, 2026 [5][5]. - Ericsson (ERIC.US) continued its upward trend with a 4.03% increase after reporting a strong Q4 2025 financial performance, with adjusted EBITA rising 24% year-on-year [5][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The gold market saw a significant rise, with spot gold prices surpassing 5200 USD, leading to a 7.38% increase in the shares of Wan Guo Gold Group (03939) [2][2]. - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Naxin Micro (02676) up 10.62% and a price adjustment announcement from Zhongwei Semiconductor indicating a price increase of 15% to 50% due to supply-demand pressures [3][4]. - The storage sector also experienced a pre-market surge, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 5.44% as price increases spread across the storage market [7][7].

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have risen, with notable increases in China Jinmao (up 6.62% to HKD 1.62), Greentown China (up 5.49% to HKD 10.38), and China Overseas Macro Group (up 4.2% to HKD 2.48) [1] - Vanke has made significant progress in debt resolution, with the extension proposals for two medium-term notes totaling CNY 5.7 billion approved [1] - Vanke's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided a loan of up to CNY 2.36 billion specifically for repaying the company's public market bond principal and interest [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities indicates that housing market policies are being strengthened, with the central bank lowering the structural tool interest rate and the guaranteed housing re-loan rate down to 1.25% [2] - The down payment ratio for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, and the tax refund policy for home exchanges has been extended, indicating a significant increase in policy support [2] - In first-tier cities, the supply-demand structure is improving, with new home transactions in Beijing increasing and second-hand home prices stabilizing [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].