Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 25.113 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by property development and Jinmao services [1] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, reached 1.123 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in marketing and management expenses [1] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from land and property development was 20.041 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, while Jinmao services generated 1.783 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [1] - The company’s marketing and management expenses decreased by 15% and 5% respectively compared to the previous year [1] Sales Performance - The company upgraded its four major product lines, achieving total sales of 53.35 billion yuan, a 16.36% increase from 44.62 billion yuan in 2024, and improved its sales ranking to 9th nationally [1] - In January 2025, the company sold four plots of land in Huzhou for 781 million yuan, marking a successful exploration of land reserves [1] Land Acquisition and Project Development - The company acquired 16 plots of land in key cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, with a total planned construction area exceeding 1.45 million square meters [2] - The total new value of projects added in the first half of 2025 was 74.9 billion yuan, ranking third nationally, with equity value added at 40.3 billion yuan [2] Financing and Cost Management - The company has diversified its funding channels, issuing bonds totaling 53 billion yuan in 2025, with significantly reduced interest rates [2] - Interest expenses for the company were 3.256 billion yuan, an 8% decrease year-on-year, while capitalized interest expenses were 2.042 billion yuan, down 10% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenues of 63.64 billion yuan, 69.44 billion yuan, and 76.79 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 1.355 billion yuan, 1.910 billion yuan, and 2.718 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company benefits from the backing of its parent company, China National Chemical Corporation, which provides a competitive financing advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has seen a recovery in transactions since Q4 2024, driven by favorable policies, but many new land acquisitions are facing challenges in sales and absorption rates as policy benefits wane [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since Q4 2024, the real estate market has experienced a rebound in transaction volumes, particularly in major cities, influenced by the "926 Housing Policy" [7]. - Despite the initial recovery, many newly acquired lands are struggling with low absorption rates, leading some "land king" projects to delay the application for pre-sale permits [1][2][10]. - In 2025, several projects launched by a top 10 real estate company reported absorption rates below 20%, with only a few projects achieving around 30% [4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - A project managed by a marketing head named Wang Xiao achieved a sales rate of approximately 30%, which is considered the best among new launches in 2025 [4]. - The sales performance varies significantly within the same city, with core area projects performing better than those in suburban regions, which are experiencing sluggish sales [4][5]. - In Beijing, two projects launched in May 2025 had net signing rates of only 25% and 11%, indicating a broader trend of poor sales performance across various projects [4]. Group 3: Land Acquisition Trends - Major state-owned enterprises have been aggressively acquiring land in key urban areas, with significant increases in land prices, including several plots sold for over 10 million yuan per square meter [7]. - From January to July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 34% year-on-year increase in land acquisition spending, while their sales revenue decreased by 13% [7]. - The trend of focusing on core urban areas for land acquisition has become more pronounced, with companies like China Overseas and Greentown leading the charge [8][9]. Group 4: Project Success Factors - The success of a real estate project is influenced by multiple factors, including location, product quality, and market demand, with location being a critical determinant [12][14]. - Projects that align closely with market demand and customer preferences tend to perform better, highlighting the importance of understanding buyer psychology and needs [13][14]. - The disparity in sales performance among similar projects underscores the necessity for precise market positioning and product differentiation [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.1 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year [1] - The growth in net profit was slightly below expectations, which anticipated a 10% increase for the full year [1] - The company has successfully increased its sales in a challenging market environment, achieving a contract sales amount of 53.4 billion RMB, a 20% year-on-year increase, ranking first among the top 10 real estate companies [3] - The company plans to resolve 80% of its existing inventory issues within three years under its "Advancement Plan" [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s property development revenue increased by 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 12% [2] - Non-development business revenue grew by 3% to 5.1 billion RMB, with property services revenue increasing by 20% [2] - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to remain stable, with total interest-bearing debt at 123.3 billion RMB [4] Project Acquisition and Sales - The company acquired 41 new projects in 2024, with an average net profit margin exceeding 10% [2] - The total value of unsold land reserves reached 320 billion RMB, with 88% located in first and second-tier cities [3] Debt and Financing - The company’s financing costs have significantly decreased, with the average financing cost dropping by 90 basis points to 2.96% [4] - The company has maintained a healthy financial status, with short-term debt accounting for 22% of total debt [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.10, 0.10, and 0.11 RMB, reflecting an increase of 11% for 2025 and 2026 [5] - The target price for the company is set at 1.81 HKD, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.41 times for 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Several Chinese real estate companies, including Greentown China, China Jinmao, and others, experienced stock price increases of over 2% on August 29, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xincheng Development saw a stock price increase of 2.89%, with a latest price of 2.490 and a total market capitalization of 17.594 billion [2]. - Greentown China reported a 2.93% increase in stock price, reaching 9.830, with a total market value of 24.964 billion [2]. - China Jinmao's stock rose by 2.78%, with a latest price of 1.480 and a market capitalization of 19.989 billion [2]. - China Overseas Hong Kong Group's stock increased by 2.71%, priced at 2.270, with a total market value of 8.08 billion [2]. - Zhongliang Holdings experienced a 2.70% rise, with a stock price of 0.076 and a market capitalization of 0.331 billion [2]. - R&F Properties also saw a 2.70% increase, with a latest price of 0.760 and a total market value of 2.852 billion [2]. - Midea Real Estate's stock rose by 2.33%, priced at 4.840, with a market capitalization of 6.947 billion [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The overall positive movement in stock prices for these companies suggests a favorable outlook for the real estate sector in China, reflecting investor confidence [1].

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817.HK) reported a revenue of 25.113 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, with a net profit attributable to owners of approximately 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a signed sales amount of 53.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 20% increase year-on-year, ranking ninth in the industry for the first time [3] - The average signed price for residential properties reached 26,000 yuan per square meter, significantly up from 22,000 yuan in 2024 and 21,000 yuan in 2023, with increases of 18.2% and 24% respectively [3] - The company’s operating cash flow recovery period shortened to 11.4 months, below the internal control target of 12 months [5] Investment Strategy - China Jinmao focused on core cities, acquiring 16 projects in the first half of the year with a total land cost of 49.2 billion yuan, all located in first and second-tier cities [3][4] - The company aims to maintain an investment target of 20 billion to 30 billion yuan for the year [4] Asset Management - The company plans to address 80% of its stock issues within three years, with a target to dispose of 35% of its stock assets this year [5] - As of mid-2025, 69% of the unsold value is located in economically developed regions, an increase of 6 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] Non-Development Business Performance - Jinmao Services (00816.HK) reported a revenue of 1.783 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a managed area growth of 11% [6] - The retail and hotel operations remained stable, with a notable rental rate of 99.03% for Changsha Lanxiu City, and an average rental increase of 8% [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve the "live well" goal from 2025 to 2027 and the "shine" goal from 2028 to 2030, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and revitalizing existing assets [7] - Management believes that for quality enterprises, future opportunities will outweigh challenges, and the company aims to enhance its core competitiveness to address market uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a positive financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth driven by increased project deliveries despite industry challenges [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.11 billion (yoy +13.3%), gross profit of 2.34 billion (yoy +6.9%), and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion (yoy +7.9%) [1] - The revenue from development business reached 20.04 billion (yoy +17%), with an overall gross margin maintained at 16% [1] - Marketing expenses decreased to 830 million (yoy -15%) and management expenses to 1.22 billion (yoy -5%), contributing to the net profit growth [1] Market Position and Sales - The company achieved a signed sales volume of 53.35 billion (yoy +19.8%), ranking ninth in the industry for the first time [2] - The company holds a market share of over 20% in the high-improvement product segment, leading in cities with significant demand [2] Land Acquisition and Financial Strategy - The company restarted land acquisition in 2025, securing 18 plots totaling 1.45 million square meters for 26.1 billion, all located in first and second-tier cities [2] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt ratio of 53% and cash on hand of 34.06 billion, ensuring operational stability [2] Diversified Business Growth - The company has diversified its business, with commercial and retail, hotel, and property services contributing significantly to revenue [3] - The commercial REITs launched in Changsha achieved over 98% occupancy, with cumulative dividends of 640 million [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 61.89 billion, 61.27 billion, and 60.04 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.58 billion respectively [3] - The company is rated with a "buy" recommendation based on its strong market position and financial health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 25.11 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, with an 8% increase year-on-year. The comprehensive gross profit margin remained stable at 16.2% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 16.2%, unchanged from the previous year, with the development business gross profit margin increasing to 12%, up by 1 percentage point year-on-year. The combined expense ratio for sales, management, and finance decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 13.0% [2] - The slower profit growth compared to revenue growth was primarily due to a decline in other income and earnings by 240 million yuan, totaling 1.24 billion yuan, and an increase in income tax expenses by 710 million yuan, totaling 1.07 billion yuan [2] Sales and Investment Performance - The company demonstrated strong sales performance, with a sales revenue of 61.8 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The newly added land value reached 79.4 billion yuan, up by 1509% year-on-year, with an investment intensity of 73%, ranking first among the top 10 real estate companies [2] - The company focused on core cities for land acquisition, adding 18 new plots with a total construction area of 1.45 million square meters, of which 70% is located in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou [2] Financing and Dividend - The company's financing costs have been decreasing, with an average bond issuance cost of 2.57% this year, down by 39 basis points from the previous year. The latest mid-term note issuance rate in July was 2.3%, continuing to decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The company declared a mid-term dividend of 0.03 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 34%, resulting in an annualized dividend yield of 3.8% based on the current stock price [3] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast and target price, with expected EPS of 0.09, 0.10, and 0.13 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The buy rating and target price of 2.20 HKD remain unchanged [3]

Industry Overview - The current real estate market remains under pressure, with no significant recovery observed. The fundamentals are still bottoming out, as indicated by a 6.5% year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales from January to July 2025, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the first half of the year [2] - In July 2025, commodity housing sales and sales area were at 43% and 44% of the levels seen in the same period in 2019, marking the lowest levels since 2022 [2] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing is 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 2.6% year-on-year decrease, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - In July 2025, the selling prices of new residential properties in 70 cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the prices of second-hand homes fell by 5.9% year-on-year, although both categories have shown signs of narrowing declines [3] Policy Changes - In August 2025, Beijing and Shanghai implemented demand-side policy relaxations, allowing eligible families to purchase homes without restrictions outside the fifth ring road, and recognizing single adults as families for purchasing purposes [3] - Shanghai also adjusted commercial loan rates, removing the interest rate floor for first-time homebuyers and no longer distinguishing between first and second homes [3] Market Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.3 percentage points this month, with an 11.3% increase since the last strategy report, ranking 16th among 31 industries [4] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the sector, excluding loss-making companies, is currently at 19.8 times based on the latest closing prices [4] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate sector, specifically recommending companies such as China Jinmao (00817), China Resources Land (01109), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), and Greentown China (03900) [1]

2025 年 8 月 28 日 公司研究 品质驱动销售增长，组织变革效率提升 ——中国金茂（0817.HK）2025 年中期业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年中期业绩公告。 1、2025 年 1-6 月，公司实现营业收入 251 亿元，同比增长 14%；实现归母净 利润 10.9 亿元，同比增长 8%。 2、派发中期股息每股 3 港仙，将于 2025 年 10 月 31 日之前派发于股东。 点评：品质驱动销售增长，组织变革效率提升，融资成本持续下降。 销售规模首进前十，产品引领走出独立行情：2025 年 1-6 月，公司实现销售签 约人民币 533.5 亿元（2024 年同期为 445.4 亿元，同比增长约 20%），排名 行业第 9 名（2024 年同期为第 12 名），首次跻身行业前十。公司始终以品质 初心引领"好房子"建设，通过"金玉满堂"系列产品的精彩呈现，在当前房 地产行业销售整体下行的背景下，通过品质升级驱动，走出独立行情。 经营效率提升明显，期间费率持续下降：公司持续深化发展战略，持续推动组 织变革，强化穿透式管理，提升经营决策效率。地产开发业务压缩管理层级， 调整为"总部-地区公司" ...

营收利润双增长，销售及土地拓展规模稳中有升 2025 年 08 月 28 日 ➢ 营收规模受益于物业开发及金茂服务提升，扣非归母净利同比小幅提升。截 至 2025 年上半年，公司实现 251.13 亿元营收，同比提升 14%，主要系物业开 发及金茂服务收入较 2024 年上半年增加所致，其中土地及物业开发实现 200.41 亿元营收，同比提升 17%，金茂服务实现 17.83 亿元营收，同比提升 20%；截 至 2025 年上半年，公司实现 11.23 亿元扣非归母净利，同比提升 2%，主要系 营销及管理费用较上年同期各减少 15%和 5%所致。 ➢ 四大产品线全面升级，助力销售规模首进第一梯队。公司通过全面升级"金 玉满堂"四大产品线，在北京、上海及西安等重点城市发力，截至 2025 年上半 年，实现全口销售金额 533.5 亿元，同比 2024 年的 446.2 亿元提升 16.36%， 销售排名提升三位至全国第 9 位，首次跻身全国第十；公司在做优增量的同时， 进一步盘活存量，2025 年 1 月份公司以 7.81 亿元的价格，将湖州南太湖的 4 宗 土地出让给湖州南太湖管委会，实现了土地收储的探索。 ...