Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China Jinmao achieved a total sales revenue of 113.5 billion yuan, ranking eighth in the industry, an increase of four positions from 2024, with a counter-cyclical growth of 15.3 billion yuan amidst overall industry pressure [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - China Jinmao's sales growth is attributed not to scale but to the successful delivery of high-end improvement products, particularly the "Jinmao Mansion" series [1] - The "Jinmao Mansion" has been a key product line, achieving significant sales in major cities, becoming a crucial support for China Jinmao during industry cycles [1][3] Group 2: Product Development - The "Jinmao Mansion" has evolved through three stages, focusing on health, green technology, and community growth, aligning with high-end improvement customers' core demands for living quality [6] - The latest iteration, Jinmao Mansion 3.0, has successfully launched in various cities, setting sales records and becoming benchmarks in local markets [3][6] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The continuous upgrade of product capabilities has established a long-term competitive advantage for China Jinmao, with a focus on comfort and stability for high-end improvement customers [7] - The "Five Balances" technology residential system has been developed to ensure a stable living environment, showcasing the company's commitment to integrating technology into housing solutions [7] Group 4: Market Positioning - High-end residential products are currently more likely to achieve premium pricing, with community amenities and service capabilities becoming critical factors influencing sales [8] - The success of the "Jinmao Mansion" not only reflects strong individual project sales but also validates a replicable and sustainable high-end improvement product strategy for the company [9] Group 5: Future Strategy - China Jinmao is expanding its product logic across a broader product system, with multiple product lines catering to different customer needs, receiving positive feedback in various cities [9] - The transition from scale expansion to product-centric strategies signals a clear market trend where projects with genuine product strength can accumulate value over time [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the necessity for companies to adapt and innovate in the face of economic transformation and industry upgrades, highlighting the importance of strategic determination and continuous growth [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Focus - China Jinmao has shifted its focus back to first and second-tier cities, moving away from lower-tier markets to optimize profit potential amid recent real estate market adjustments [4][11] - The company has acquired 21 land parcels in high-energy cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with a total planned construction area of 1.8878 million square meters in 2025 [12][13] - The investment strategy remains focused on high-energy cities, with 66% of investments directed towards Beijing and Shanghai, maintaining an annual investment target of 20-30 billion yuan [13] Group 2: Product Innovation and Sales Performance - China Jinmao has expanded its product lines, introducing the "Jin Yu Man Tang" series to cater to various market segments, which has significantly contributed to sales growth [16][20] - The company achieved a total signed sales revenue of 113.5 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 15.52% year-on-year increase, making it the only company in the top ten to maintain positive growth [20][21] - The average sales price surged to 37,000 yuan per square meter in October, a record high in three years, reflecting the effectiveness of the strategic shift towards high-end products [21] Group 3: Financial Resilience and Debt Management - China Jinmao's gross profit margin has shown signs of recovery, increasing to 16% in the first half of 2025, following a period of pressure due to market conditions [22][28] - The company has implemented a debt management strategy focusing on replacing high-cost debt with lower-interest loans, successfully reducing financing costs to 2.7% in the first half of 2025 [32][34] - The overall debt structure has improved, with a reduction in the proportion of short-term debt and a more balanced maturity profile, indicating a more stable financial position [37][38]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - 72.22% of the 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth as of January 12, 2026, with five companies achieving record monthly sales [1] - China Resources Land led with a monthly sales figure of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [2] - China Overseas achieved a three-month consecutive sales increase, with December sales reaching 398.32 billion yuan, supported by various high-end and affordable housing projects [2][3] Group 2: Yearly Sales Data - Poly Developments topped the 2025 sales chart with 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a 21.67% decline from 2024, maintaining a lead over China Overseas [4] - Other companies in the billion-yuan sales club include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, with sales figures of 2336 billion yuan, 1960.09 billion yuan, and 1534 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer hesitation, contributing to a positive growth outlook for the real estate sector [3] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remain in the top sales rankings, with 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan in sales respectively [5] Group 4: Land Acquisition Strategies - Leading companies are focusing on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with China Overseas reporting 60.6% of its sales from major cities [6][7] - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing investments in Shanghai while reducing its presence in Beijing, with significant spending in Guangzhou [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in annual sales for 2025, despite a year-on-year decline, with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, outperforming China Overseas Land by 17.98 billion yuan [1][6] - The trend of increasing sales among major real estate firms is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][6] Sales Performance - In December 2025, China Resources Land led with sales of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Land at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [3] - The sales growth rates for December 2025 were significant, with Sunac China experiencing a 163.39% increase due to a low base in November, while other firms like China Overseas Land and China Resources Land also reported substantial growth rates of 79.14% and 78.26% respectively [4] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape among top real estate firms has stabilized, with Poly Developments focusing heavily on the Guangzhou market, investing 648.24 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, compared to 265.02 billion yuan in Beijing and 359.27 billion yuan in Shanghai [1][9] - The second-tier firms (500 billion to 1 trillion yuan) averaged sales of 646.4 billion yuan, while third-tier firms (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan, indicating a diverse recovery across different company sizes [7] Strategic Adjustments - Major firms are adjusting their land acquisition strategies, with a focus on first and second-tier cities. For instance, China Overseas Land's sales in major cities accounted for 60.6% of its total sales, while Poly Developments has also shifted its focus towards Shanghai, increasing its land acquisition there significantly [8][9] - The overall trend indicates that while some firms are facing challenges, others are leveraging their strong market positions and operational capabilities to navigate the current landscape effectively [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in 2025 with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 21.67% compared to 2024 [6] - The trend of increasing sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][7] Company Performance - Poly Developments led the sales with 2530.3 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 2512.32 billion yuan, and China Resources Land at 2336 billion yuan [6][7] - In December 2025, China Resources Land achieved a sales figure of 410 billion yuan, while China Overseas reached 398.32 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou reported 258.44 billion yuan [3][4] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remained in the top ranks with sales of 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Trends - The recovery in sales is uneven across different tiers of companies, with Sunac China showing a significant month-on-month increase of 163.39% in December due to a low base in November [4] - The second-tier companies (sales between 500 billion to 1000 billion yuan) averaged 646.4 billion yuan, while the third-tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan [7] - The focus on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities is evident, with companies like China Overseas and Poly Developments significantly increasing their investments in these areas [8][9] Strategic Adjustments - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing its focus on Shanghai while reducing investments in Beijing, with land payments in Shanghai surpassing those in Beijing in recent years [9] - The overall strategy of major companies emphasizes deepening land reserves in key urban areas, which is crucial for sustaining sales performance [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49]. - The report highlights that multiple favorable factors are driving a gradual recovery in the sentiment of the Hong Kong private residential market, indicating that Hong Kong developers may face a new round of value reassessment [5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, the ChiNext Index by 3.9%, and the CSI 300 by 2.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 5.1% during the week [5][8]. - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rong Control (+19.7%), and *ST Sunshine (+16.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.37 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 9, new housing transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 30.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [33]. - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand housing transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [37]. Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing guarantees [49]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [49]. - Local policies include the extension of the down payment ratio in Shenyang to 15% until the end of 2026 and the increase of the public loan limit from 60% to 80% [49].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is gradually bottoming out and undergoing value reconstruction, adhering to the core concept of "long-termism" [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, 10 real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 4 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan [1] - The top 10 companies by sales in 2025 were: Poly Developments (253 billion), Greentown China (251.9 billion), China Overseas Land & Investment (251.2 billion), China Resources Land (233.6 billion), China Merchants Shekou (186 billion), Vanke (178 billion), Jianfa Real Estate (156 billion), China Jinmao (135 billion), Yuexiu Property (128 billion), and Binjiang Group (105 billion) [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The investment amount in 2025 reflects the industry's situation, with state-owned enterprises dominating the top ten in investment [2] - China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou accounted for over 30% of the total investment among the top ten companies [2] - Private enterprises showed signs of recovering investment confidence, with total land acquisition exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the industry, with ongoing debt restructuring among real estate companies and a focus on completing housing delivery tasks [3] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance while maintaining a stable adjustment, with potential structural recovery in residential market transactions [3] - The average annual sales area of new residential buildings in the next five years is projected to remain between 700 million and 800 million square meters [4] Group 4: Company Visions for 2026 - Poly Developments aims to enhance its core value through refined operations and digital marketing while expanding into property services and light-asset construction [5] - Greentown China focuses on product innovation and community service, emphasizing high quality and sustainability [6] - China Overseas Land & Investment plans to deepen its core business and enhance its competitive edge through technology and investment [7] - China Resources Land intends to accelerate its strategic layout and ensure high-quality project execution [8] - China Jinmao aims to become a leader in product innovation and sustainable development through a three-step strategic plan [9] - Yuexiu Property emphasizes high-quality growth through enhanced service offerings and community engagement [10] - Country Garden is shifting its focus from housing delivery to optimizing its debt structure and restoring normal operations [11] - China Communications Construction Company is committed to urban deep cultivation and digital transformation [12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable structure and profitability, with a focus on quality over quantity in land acquisition [61]. Core Insights - The 2025 land market is characterized by a "quality over quantity" approach, with a significant decrease in land supply and transaction volumes, while average transaction prices have increased [25][61]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and leading real estate companies are becoming more active in land acquisition, with a notable increase in land acquisition intensity among major firms [48][61]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in national sample cities has risen, indicating strong competition for prime land in first and second-tier cities [31][61]. Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - In 2025, the total land supply in national sample cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year to 1,172.42 million square meters, with first, second, and third-fourth tier cities experiencing declines of 27.6%, 6.4%, and 19.2% respectively [25][28]. - Land transaction volumes also fell by 12.5% to 986.63 million square meters, with transaction values dropping by 11.4% to RMB 28,488 billion, while the average transaction floor price increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,887 per square meter [25][28]. Premium Rates and City Focus - The average premium rate for land transactions in 2025 was 5.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with first-tier cities averaging 10.7% and second-tier cities at 6.2% [31][61]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong demand for quality land [31][61]. Investment Strategies of Key Players - In 2025, 12 real estate companies exceeded RMB 10 billion in land acquisition, with 11 being central SOEs, highlighting the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the market [48][61]. - The land acquisition intensity for the top 100 real estate companies was 0.29, reflecting a 70.6% increase year-on-year, with Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group leading at 81.9% [48][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, among others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [61][65].

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao reported its unaudited sales data for December 2025, indicating a significant sales performance in the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, China Jinmao and its subsidiaries achieved a signed sales amount of RMB 12.821 billion, with a signed sales area of 423,200 square meters [1] - For the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, the group accumulated a total signed sales amount of RMB 113.5 billion, which includes sales from various projects such as Changsha Meixi Lake International New City and Nanjing Qinglongshan International Ecological New City, among others [1] - The total signed sales area for the same period reached 4.795 million square meters [1] Group 2: Property Sales - As of December 31, 2025, the group recorded a subscribed (but not yet signed) property sales amount of RMB 720 million [1]