查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 三、当前地产行业贝塔偏弱，聚焦结构性阿尔法机遇 不可否认的是当前地产行业贝塔仍偏弱。2025年1-5月，房地产投资3.62万亿元（同比-10.7%）；房屋新开 工面积2.32亿平（同比-22.8%）、新建商品房销售额3.41万亿元（同比-3.8%）、百城成交住宅类用地建面 为6991万平（同比-3.4%）。但我们认为随着区域分化和城市分化进一步加深，结构性阿尔法亮点值得持 续关注。 例如在全国销售和拿地持续下滑的同时，2025年1-5月，北上广深杭蓉六城商品住宅（不含保障）销售金 额7458亿元（同比+14.4%）；同期光大核心30城成交宅地总建面3440万平（同比+15.6%），成交楼面均 价12548元/平(同比+23.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Hefei saw three residential plots successfully sold, with the most notable being the Shuxihu GX202504 plot, which was unexpectedly acquired by Jinmao at a lower-than-expected price of 1,526 million CNY per mu, indicating cautious bidding behavior among developers [1][2][10]. Summary by Category Land Auction Results - The Shuxihu GX202504 plot was sold to Jinmao for 1,526 million CNY per mu, resulting in a floor price of 17,607.69 CNY per square meter, which is below market expectations of over 20,000 CNY per square meter [2][4]. - The JK202502 plot in the Economic Development Zone was acquired by China Resources for 1,282 million CNY per mu, with a floor price of 10,683 CNY per square meter [6]. - The GX202503 plot in the High-tech Zone was won by Hefei High-tech City Development Group at a base price of 948 million CNY per mu, translating to a floor price of 7,900 CNY per square meter [8]. Developer Participation and Market Sentiment - The bidding process for the Shuxihu plot was cautious, concluding in just over twenty rounds, reflecting a lack of strong confidence among developers despite the plot's desirability [2][10]. - Overall, developers' willingness to acquire land remains weak, as evidenced by the conservative bidding even for prime plots like Shuxihu [10]. Upcoming Auctions - The next round of land auctions is scheduled for June 28, with 18 residential plots initially planned, but seven plots were withdrawn due to a lack of bidders [12]. - The most anticipated plot in the upcoming auction is the Yaogongmiao 07 plot, with six developers, including Greentown and China Merchants, expressing interest [12][13].

6月27日，多城土地集中出让，央企中国金茂拿地积极，一日之内落子三城。 在成都，龙泉驿区一涉宅组合用地出让，该组合地块由两宗宅地组成，总土地出让面积103161.7平方 米，总规划建筑面积257904.24平方米，总起始价26.32亿元，最终成都经开国投和中国金茂联合体竞 得，成交价为底价26.32亿元。 在杭州，金茂旗下公司以11.57亿元的总价，竞得原运河新城单元GS1004-9-2地块，成交楼面价41240元/ 平方米。据悉，该地块出让面积20044平方米，容积率1.4，起价7.42亿元，楼面起价26451元/平方米， 最终溢价率达到55.91%。 合肥也迎来一场土拍热潮，今日市区3宗住宅地块出让。中国金茂以总价13.55亿元拿下高新蜀西湖地 块，楼面价17608元/平方米；其余地块被华润和高新城发拿下，总价分别为3.45亿和3.44亿，楼面价分 别为10683元/平方米、7900元/平方米。 今日多城土地集中出让，央企中国金茂拿地积极。 去年四季度以来，金茂已明显加大投资力度，全年权益土地款支出202亿，权益占比61%，部分项目与 华润、保利、建发等合作开发；拿地区域重回一二线，京沪成为投资重心。 进 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-5月，百城宅地成交建面同比-3.4%，成交楼面均价同比+26.2% 2025年1-5月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为6,991万平，累计同比-3.4%；成交楼面均价为7,466元/平方米， 累计同比+26.2%。分能级城市来看，1-5月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为464万平，累计同比+5.3%；成交建面为305万平，累计同比-12.6%；成 交楼面均价为42,605元/平方米，累计同比+50.6%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为4,105万平，累计同比-2.9%；成交建面为3,197万平，累计同比+7.1%； 成交楼面均价为8,735元/平方米，累计同比+19.1%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为3,89 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a deep adjustment in the real estate market, the enthusiasm for land auctions in hot cities continues to persist, with significant competition among major developers for prime land parcels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Land Auction Highlights - On June 26, a residential and commercial land parcel in Chengdu was sold for a total price of 572 million yuan, with a floor price of 19,200 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 19.25% [1]. - In Tianjin, three residential plots were sold on June 25, with a total price of 259 million yuan and a premium of 16.93% for one of the plots [1]. - The land auction in Shanghai on June 19-20 saw five out of six plots sold at a premium, totaling 21.257 billion yuan, with the most notable plot in Yangpu District fetching a record floor price of 95,530 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 30.79% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Developer Behavior - Developers are increasingly focusing on hot cities and areas with guaranteed liquidity, as evidenced by the high average premium rates exceeding 15% in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu during the first five months of the year [2][22]. - The trend of high premium land sales is accompanied by instances of land being sold at base prices in various cities, indicating a divergence in market conditions [1][21]. - Major developers such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment are actively participating in land auctions, with Poly leading in land acquisition value at 41.32 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [15][14]. Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The land market is experiencing a significant divide, with core city plots attracting high premiums while non-core areas see declining interest from developers [22][23]. - The average premium rates in core cities reflect a strong demand for quality land, while areas with less favorable attributes are struggling to attract bids, often resulting in base price sales [22][23]. - Developers are adjusting their strategies to focus on high-quality, high-turnover projects in first and second-tier cities, while reducing investments in lower-tier cities to manage risks effectively [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The successful sale of the NY-030 (South District) R2 residential land in Fengtai District for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strategic move by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao, reflecting confidence in the area's development potential and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The land was sold at a base price of 2.08 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 40,200 yuan per square meter [1]. - The land is located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai, approximately 500 meters from the Xinjing Station, which connects Metro Lines 19 and 4 [3]. - The total area of the land is 25,900 square meters with a plot ratio of 2.0 and a height limit of 45 meters (60 meters in some areas) [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The area surrounding the land is well-developed with commercial facilities, including Wanda Plaza and Dayue Chunfengli, and is rich in ecological resources, although educational resources are currently lacking [3]. - The successful acquisition of this land follows the positive market performance of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project, which was launched after obtaining a pre-sale permit [4]. - The transaction aligns with the market supply rhythm, as the previous land parcels were initially bundled but were later split to enhance the likelihood of successful sales [4][5]. Group 3: Future Development Potential - The acquisition of the 02 land plot is seen as a recognition of the area's development potential and land value, with plans for the NY-030 (North District) plot to also enter the market [5]. - If Jianfa successfully integrates the North District plot, it could facilitate comprehensive development in the area and allow for better control over development pace and regional value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of the NY-030-02 land parcel by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strong belief in the area's development potential and land value, likely leading to the creation of a second phase of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project [1][4]. Group 1: Land Acquisition and Development - The NY-030-02 land parcel has a planned construction area of approximately 51,800 square meters and is designated for R2 residential use [4]. - The land is strategically located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai District, close to the New Palace subway station, enhancing its accessibility [4]. - The successful sale of the NY-030-02 land is expected to align with the typical cycle from land acquisition to project launch, reflecting the local government's strategy in managing market supply [4][6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - Jianfa's first project in the New Palace area, Jianfa Jingyuan, received its pre-sale permit in March 2023 and has nearly sold out, demonstrating strong market performance [5]. - The success of Jianfa Jingyuan is attributed to its quality delivery and the area's existing transportation and commercial infrastructure, which enhances the overall living environment [5]. - The deep cultivation strategy employed by Jianfa in the region is expected to create a "red plate effect," attracting more homebuyers and facilitating faster sales for new projects [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The acquisition of the NY-030-02 land may lead to the integration of the NY-030 (North District) land parcel, allowing Jianfa to enhance overall development and resource integration in the area [6]. - This strategy could help control development pace and improve regional value, further solidifying Jianfa's presence in the market [6].

中国金茂公告，苏州腾茂(公司间接全资附属公司)与苏州淳茂签署股权转让协议，同意收购而苏州淳茂 同意出售上海洮茂49%的股权，总对价约为21.37亿元。于本次交易完成后，上海洮茂将成为公司的间 接全资附属公司。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月10日 中国金茂（00817.HK） 优于大市 主业聚焦开发，多元航道并行。1）城市及物业开发：公司发布"金玉满 堂"全新产品系，产品力突出，市场认可度高，贡献公司超 8 成收入； 2）商务租赁及零售商业运营：商务租赁板块成为了助推公司业绩增长 的动力之一，公司持有的写字楼绝多位于一二线核心城市的黄金地段， 拥有较高出租率；3）酒店经营：公司致力于在核心城市精选地段运营 地标性和精品特色高级酒店项目，拥有成熟完善的高级酒店设计、开发 和投资经营能力；4）物业服务：于 2022 年分拆上市，目前拥有总合约 建筑面积约达 1.3 亿平方米。 销售稳定，土储优质。2024 年公司实现销售金额 983 亿元，排名全行业 第 12 位，稳居行业第一梯队。公司有别于其他开发商，坚持化城市运 营模式，不论是在产品革新、资金安全等方面，都具备较强的抗周期能 力，且拥有大部分开发商都不具备的长期开发运营能力。2023 年以来， 公司在招拍挂市场拿地强度不断提高，2024 年拿地金额/销售金额为 0.33，位于主流房企前列。截至目前，公司未售货值约 2800 亿，货值 可充分支撑公司未来经营需要 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月10日 中国金茂（00817.HK） 优于大市 多线并进产品力优，风险出清加速拓土 背靠央企，业绩扭亏。中国金茂是中国中化控股有限责任公司旗下城市运 营领域的平台企业，中国中化持股约 38.4%，为公司最大股东。公司业 务结构多元稳定，包括城市及物业开发、商务租赁及零售商业运营、酒 店经营、物业服务等板块。2024 年公司实现业绩扭亏，主要原因是：1） 计提存货减值减少；2）开发业务毛利率回升；3）三费支出减少；4） 合联营公司贡献利润增多。 主业聚焦开发，多元航道并行。1）城市及物业开发：公司发布"金玉满 堂"全新产品系，产品力突出，市场认可度高，贡献公司超 8 成收入； 2）商务租赁及零售商业运营：商务租赁板块成为了助推公司业绩增长 的动力之一，公司持有的写字楼绝多位于一二线核心城市的黄金地段， 拥有较高出租率；3）酒店经营：公司致力于在核心城市精选地段运营 地标性和精品特色高级酒店项目，拥有成熟完善的高级酒店设计、开发 和投资经营能力；4）物业服务：于 2022 年分拆上市，目前拥有总合约 建筑面积约达 1.3 亿平方米。 销售稳定，土储优质。2024 年公司实现销售金 ...