Group 1: Market Overview - On November 5, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 10.373 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 3.359 billion HKD from Shanghai and 7.014 billion HKD from Shenzhen [1] - The most net bought stocks included Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), Alibaba-W (09988), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [1] - The most net sold stocks were Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), SMIC (00981), and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W had a net inflow of 2.53 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 4.231 billion HKD [2] - SMIC experienced a net outflow of 2.81 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 2.472 billion HKD [2] - Tencent Holdings saw a net outflow of 2.83 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 2.062 billion HKD [2] Group 3: Sector Insights - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) received a net inflow of 12.87 billion HKD, with analysts noting that the Hang Seng Technology Index is trading at historically low valuations, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4] - Northbound funds increased their positions in tech stocks, with Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and Tencent receiving net inflows of 8.9 million, 1.84 million, and 585 million HKD respectively [5] - Xiaomi Group-W is expected to see a 22% year-on-year revenue growth and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by strong electric vehicle sales [5] Group 4: Corporate Developments - China Mobile (00941) had a net inflow of 2.06 billion HKD, as it announced a transfer of 0.19% of its shares to China National Petroleum Corporation to enhance strategic collaboration [6] - Northbound trading saw significant sell-offs in semiconductor stocks, with SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor experiencing net outflows of 4.99 billion and 6.4 billion HKD respectively [6]

Core Points - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) closed at a 0.00% change on November 5, with a trading volume of 66.32 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on August 20, 2025, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of November 4, the fund's total shares stood at 225 million, with a total size of 231 million yuan [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the fund's cumulative trading amount reached 1.192 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 59.60 million yuan [1] - The current fund manager is He Yuxuan, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 2.46% during the tenure [1] Holdings Summary - The top holdings of the Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF include: - COSCO Shipping Holdings (0.85% holding, 218,000 shares, market value of 2.9175 million yuan) [2] - Orient Overseas International (0.40% holding, 10,500 shares, market value of 1.3717 million yuan) [2] - China Foreign Transport (0.33% holding, 270,000 shares, market value of 1.1396 million yuan) [2] - China National Petroleum (0.32% holding, 162,000 shares, market value of 1.0973 million yuan) [2] - CITIC Bank (0.32% holding, 175,000 shares, market value of 1.1136 million yuan) [2] - CNOOC (0.29% holding, 58,000 shares, market value of 1.0041 million yuan) [2] - China Shenhua Energy (0.29% holding, 30,500 shares, market value of 982,600 yuan) [2] - China People's Insurance Group (0.29% holding, 164,000 shares, market value of 1.0107 million yuan) [2] - China Unicom (0.28% holding, 104,000 shares, market value of 952,800 yuan) [2] - Agricultural Bank of China (0.27% holding, 189,000 shares, market value of 933,900 yuan) [2]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) experienced a decline of 0.99% in stock price on November 4, with a trading volume of 929 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net financing outflow of 657.21 million yuan on the same day, with total financing and securities balance amounting to 1.359 billion yuan [1][2] - CNOOC's main business segments include exploration and production, trading, and corporate services, with oil and gas sales accounting for 82.73% of total revenue [2] Financing and Trading Activity - On November 4, CNOOC had a financing buy-in of 81.155 million yuan, with a current financing balance of 1.352 billion yuan, representing 1.61% of the market capitalization [1] - The financing balance is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low level of financing activity [1] - In terms of securities lending, CNOOC had a net short sale of 2.90 million shares on November 4, with a remaining short balance of 728.83 million yuan, also below the 30% percentile level over the past year [1] Company Performance - As of September 30, CNOOC reported a total revenue of 312.503 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 101.971 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.59% [2] - CNOOC has distributed a total of 255.995 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 179.051 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant adjustments on November 4-5, with technology stocks leading the decline, and the Nasdaq dropping over 2% [2] - AI stock valuations are seen as a core risk, with Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio reaching 700 times, far exceeding historical levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's changing stance and persistent inflation above target for over four and a half years are putting pressure on technology companies that heavily rely on low-interest financing [2] Group 2 - Market analysts warn of a potential correction of 10% to 20%, reflecting growing investor concerns that technology stock valuations may not be self-justifying, with over 300 S&P 500 constituents declining [2] - In the Hong Kong stock market, net inflows through the Stock Connect on Tuesday reached HKD 9.8 billion, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) seeing the highest net inflow of HKD 1.05 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) [2] - Conversely, Alibaba (09988.HK) recorded the largest net outflow of HKD 868 million, followed by Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the production and sales of the four major iron ore mines were generally stable. Vale's production and sales increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, Rio Tinto remained basically flat, FMG declined quarter - on - quarter due to the first quarter of the new fiscal year, and BHP decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [1]. - The total iron ore production/processing volume of the four major mines in Q3 was 299.5 million tons, basically flat quarter - on - quarter and up 1.63% year - on - year. In terms of sales, the total sales volume was 291 million tons, up 0.52% quarter - on - quarter and 1.86% year - on - year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the four major mines increased by about 10 million tons year - on - year, with FMG showing a significant increase. The total sales volume decreased by about 500,000 tons year - on - year, mainly due to Rio Tinto's reduced shipments [1]. - Overall, the four major mines were stable in the first three quarters. Rio Tinto may face some pressure to boost shipments in Q4. It is expected that the annual shipment volume of the four major mines will increase by 3.5 - 6 million tons year - on - year, with relatively limited overall growth [1]. 3. Summary by Company Rio Tinto - In Q3 2025, production in the Pilbara region remained high at about 84.1 million tons (100% equity), with year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter stability. Shipments were 84.3 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and up about 5.51% quarter - on - quarter, reaching the second - highest Q3 record since 2019 [6]. - The Gudai - Darri mine achieved its highest quarterly production, with an annualized production capacity of 51 million tons. The IOC mine in Canada produced about 2.348 million tons in Q3, up 11% year - on - year but down 6% quarter - on - quarter [9]. - Since July, Rio Tinto has been shipping adjusted PB fines. It maintains its 2025 shipment guidance of 323 - 338 million tons, but considering the early - year losses, the annual shipment is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range [9]. BHP - In Q3 2025 (Q1 of FY2026), BHP's WAIO production was 62.01 million tons (equity basis), down about 2% year - on - year and 9% quarter - on - quarter; 70.25 million tons on a 100% equity basis, down about 2% year - on - year. Planned maintenance affected short - term production, but the Samarco project's output increased significantly [12]. - Sales were basically flat, with a slight year - on - year decline of about 1%. The sales of lump ore increased by 5% year - on - year. BHP maintains its FY2025 production guidance of 258 - 269 million tons (284 - 296 million tons on a 100% equity basis) [12]. FMG - In Q3 2025 (Q1 of FY2026), FMG's iron ore shipments were 49.7 million tons (including 2.1 million tons from the Iron Bridge project), up about 4% year - on - year, setting a record for the same period. Due to seasonal maintenance, shipments decreased by about 10% quarter - on - quarter. Ore processing volume was 50.8 million tons, up about 6% year - on - year [16]. - The proportion of Super Special Fines and Blend Fines is about 78%. FMG maintains its FY2026 shipment guidance of 195 - 205 million tons, with the Iron Bridge project contributing about 10 - 12 million tons [16]. Vale - In Q3 2025, Vale's iron ore production reached 94.4 million tons, up 3.8% year - on - year and 12.9% quarter - on - quarter, the highest for the same period since 2018. Sales were 86 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year and 11.2% quarter - on - quarter [18][23]. - Inventory increased by about 4.5 million tons in Q3, mainly due to more in - transit concentrate products in China. The pellet production in Q3 was 7.997 million tons, down 22.8% year - on - year [23]. - Assuming Q4 production is the same as the previous year, Vale's annual production is expected to be slightly higher than the mid - point of the guidance range of 325 - 335 million tons [24].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.79%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.76%, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.92% [1] - Gold stocks saw significant drops, with Tongguan Gold and Lingbao Gold falling over 6%, Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold down over 5%, Zhaojin Mining down over 4%, and Zijin Gold International down over 2% [1] Capital Flow - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of Hong Kong stocks amounting to 9.832 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 5.202 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 4.630 billion HKD [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Xiaomi Group-W, and China Mobile received net purchases of 1.046 billion HKD, 1.002 billion HKD, and 753 million HKD respectively [2] - Alibaba-W, Sunny Optical Technology, and SMIC faced net sales of 868 million HKD, 325 million HKD, and 234 million HKD respectively [2] Regulatory Changes - Starting from August 19, 2024, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges will adjust the information disclosure mechanism for the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which will include daily disclosures of total trading amounts and active securities [3]

Core Insights - "Deep Sea No. 1" is China's largest offshore gas field, with an annual production capacity exceeding 4.5 billion cubic meters [5][8] - The project has achieved a daily gas production of up to 15 million cubic meters, marking a significant milestone in deep-sea oil and gas development in China [6][8] Production Capacity - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field has a total of 23 underwater gas wells that are now operational, contributing to its status as the largest offshore gas field in China [5][6] - The gas produced is transported to various regions, including Hainan Free Trade Port and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, benefiting numerous households and industries [5][8] Technical Achievements - The project faced extreme geological conditions, with the highest formation temperature reaching 138 degrees Celsius and maximum pressure exceeding 69 MPa, presenting significant technical challenges [6][9] - "Deep Sea No. 1" has become the deepest and most challenging deep-water gas field developed independently in China, showcasing advanced technology and engineering capabilities [6][9] Innovative Development Model - The project utilized a pioneering development model combining underwater production systems, shallow water jacket platforms, and deep-water semi-submersible platforms, which is a first in the industry [7] - The infrastructure includes a vast network of underwater pipelines and platforms, spanning over 170 kilometers and operating at depths exceeding 1,500 meters [7][8] Future Prospects - The successful implementation of "Deep Sea No. 1" is expected to enhance the development of other complex deep-water oil and gas reserves, contributing to China's energy supply and supporting the transition to a greener energy structure [7][9]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.17%), COSCO Shipping Energy (70.06%), and GCL-Poly Energy (69.25%) [1][2] - The largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days were seen in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (+56.53 billion), Hang Seng China Enterprises (+19.83 billion), and Meituan-W (+17.13 billion) [1][2] - The largest decreases in holdings were recorded for Tencent Holdings (-18.04 billion), ZTE Corporation (-6.76 billion), and Innovent Biologics (-6.70 billion) [1][3] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 71.17% with 9.878 billion shares [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 70.06% with 908 million shares [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.25% with 280 million shares [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw an increase of +56.53 billion in holdings, with a change of +21.71 million shares [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) increased by +19.83 billion, with a change of +2.12 million shares [2] - Meituan-W (03690) increased by +17.13 billion, with a change of +1.71 million shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Tencent Holdings (00700) experienced a decrease of -18.04 billion, with a change of -2.86 million shares [3] - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw a decrease of -6.76 billion, with a change of -2.09 million shares [3] - Innovent Biologics (01801) decreased by -6.70 billion, with a change of -0.77 million shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q3, driven by increased production and successful project launches [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, CNOOC achieved revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 104.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.11%. The net profit for Q3 was 32.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.10% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.59% [1]. Sales and Production - In Q3 2025, CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue was 83.74 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year, with liquid petroleum sales revenue at 69.95 billion yuan, down 5.6%, while natural gas sales revenue increased by 13.0% to 13.78 billion yuan [1]. - The average realized price for liquid petroleum in Q3 was 66.62 USD per barrel, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, while the realized price for natural gas was 7.80 USD per thousand cubic feet, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year [1]. - CNOOC's total oil and gas production in Q3 was 193.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.9% year-on-year, with liquid petroleum production at 149.0 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.1%, and natural gas production at 261.3 billion cubic feet, up 11.0% [1]. Exploration and Project Development - In Q3 2025, CNOOC successfully evaluated four oil and gas structures, with significant results from the Kenli 10-6 structure and the Lingshui 17-2 integrated rolling reserve increase [2]. - Four projects were launched in Q3, including the Kenli 10-2 oilfield group development project, Dongfang 1-1 gas field 13-3 area development project, Guyana Yellowtail project, and Wenchang 16-2 oilfield development project, with peak daily production of 19,400, 5,500, 250,000, and 11,200 barrels of oil equivalent, respectively [2]. Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - CNOOC's main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 27.35 USD, optimized by 0.79 USD per barrel compared to the first three quarters of 2024, enhancing the company's competitiveness [2]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the previous three years, indicating potential for improved shareholder returns in the long term [2]. Investment Outlook - Based on current oil price trends and production growth, CNOOC is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 138.2 billion yuan, 143.6 billion yuan, and 146.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [3]. - A relative valuation method suggests a target price of 36.24 yuan for 2026, based on a 12 times price-to-earnings ratio [3].

Core Insights - Southbound capital has significantly increased its holdings in the Hong Kong stock market, marking it as the largest source of incremental funds this year, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD, a historical high [1][4] - The Hong Kong stock market has performed well this year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 29% and 30% respectively as of November 4 [1][6] - Despite recent market fluctuations, analysts believe that the Hong Kong market is primarily driven by liquidity, with potential for substantial upward movement in the medium to long term [1][7] Southbound Capital Inflows - As of November 4, 2023, southbound capital has recorded a cumulative net inflow of 12,753.21 billion HKD this year, more than double the amount from the same period in 2024, with a single-day record inflow of 358.76 billion HKD on August 15 [1][4] - In 198 trading days this year, there were net inflow days on 166 occasions, accounting for over 80% [1] - Monthly net inflows have consistently exceeded 110 billion HKD in several months, including January through April, July, August, and September [1] Holdings and Sector Preferences - As of November 3, 2023, southbound capital held 5,525.19 billion shares, an increase of 867.34 billion shares since the beginning of 2025, with a market value of 6.29 trillion HKD, up 2.71 trillion HKD [2] - The financial, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors have the highest holdings, valued at 15,135.25 billion HKD, 13,086.04 billion HKD, and 8,918.34 billion HKD respectively [2] - Major stock holdings include Tencent Holdings over 650 billion HKD, Alibaba-W over 360 billion HKD, and several banks and energy companies exceeding 200 billion HKD [2] Recent Buying Trends - The most significant increases in holdings this year have been in China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and other major banks, with increases of 68.96 billion shares, 52.02 billion shares, and 50.27 billion shares respectively [3] - In the past month, the financial, energy, and communication services sectors saw the highest net buying amounts, with 255.73 billion HKD, 112.20 billion HKD, and 95.67 billion HKD respectively [4] Company Buybacks - As of November 3, 2023, Hong Kong-listed companies have repurchased over 1,460 billion HKD worth of shares, with 239 companies participating in buybacks this year [5] - Tencent Holdings leads in buyback scale with 609.65 billion HKD, followed by HSBC and AIA with 302.57 billion HKD and 176.93 billion HKD respectively [5] - The buyback trend is particularly strong in the technology and financial sectors, with notable increases in consumer companies as well [5] Market Performance and Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with all industry sectors experiencing gains, particularly materials, healthcare, and information technology [6] - The Hang Seng Index's rolling P/E ratio has increased from 8.96 to 11.89, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [6] - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term but has significant upward potential in the medium to long term due to favorable liquidity conditions and ongoing capital inflows [7]