Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of December 13, 26 A-share listed banks have disclosed their mid-term or quarterly dividend plans for 2025, surpassing the 24 banks that did so in the same period of 2024, with total dividends expected to exceed 260 billion yuan [1][3] - The banks disclosing dividend plans include 6 large state-owned banks, 6 joint-stock banks, and 14 small and medium-sized banks, with the six major state-owned banks expected to contribute over 200 billion yuan in cash dividends [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with an estimated dividend of approximately 50.4 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of Communications [3] Group 2 - Joint-stock banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank are expected to have mid-term dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan, while China Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank are projected to exceed 5 billion yuan [3] - Some small and medium-sized banks, like Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank, also show significant dividend amounts, with several banks like Industrial Bank and Ningbo Bank introducing mid-term dividend plans for the first time [3] - The increase in dividend frequency among commercial banks is a response to the new "National Nine Articles" aimed at promoting multiple dividends per year for listed companies, enhancing the connection between company profits and investor returns [3] Group 3 - More frequent dividends can directly enhance shareholder satisfaction, allowing investors to share in the banks' operational success in a timely manner [4] - Stable cash returns align well with the investment needs of long-term funds such as social security funds, pension funds, and insurance capital, helping to attract these funds for long-term holding [4] - The positioning of banks as dividend-oriented can create a virtuous cycle of attracting long-term capital, enhancing stock price stability, and reducing abnormal price fluctuations caused by short-term speculation [4]

为切实提升一线员工服务效能，创新服务场景，建行深圳市分行持续实践，深入基层、深入群众开展系 列创新活动，针对性地解决基层突出问题，为一线员工赋能。 聚焦创新手段如何培育发展新优势、新动能，创新如何赋能基层减负，建行深圳市分行近年来高度重视 产品创新与组织推动，始终践行群众路线从基层一线汲取创新智慧，同时多措并举构建创新体系，探索 特色化的创新孵化机制，全方位调动各项资源以助推创意转化为生产力。 01 沉下身子听需求，把创新源头扎于基层 创新不能靠"闭门造车"，要从一线来、到一线去。近年来，建行深圳市分行创新文化工作走群众路线， 通过平台搭建、机制保障、资源倾斜引导一线发声，同时让基层的"金点子" 有渠道、有支撑、有价 值。 建行深圳市分行通过"搭平台""提质效""深挖潜"三步法，推出多元特色创意活动，下沉基层深挖灵感。 分行打造全流程孵化赋能机制，配备导师、专家资源池等支持资源，深度分析、挖掘全行创意，实现采 集基层痛点、提出创意方案、开发需求、落地项目、跟踪分析五个环节的"一条龙"管理。并定期举 行"小点子·大价值"优秀创意评选，以激励转化成效优秀的小创意，鼓励"小点子"创"大价值"。 在基层发声反馈机制上 ...

记者丨张欣 编辑丨曾芳 12月12日，全国金融系统工作会议在京召开，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主 任何立峰出席会议并讲话，为2026年金融系统工作划定核心方向。 同日，工行、建行、农行、中行等国有大行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神， 结合全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实措施，明确2026年及 "十五五" 时期工作 重点，为助力经济高质量发展、服务金融强国建设提供金融支撑。 四家国有大行在贯彻落实会议精神过程中形成明确共识，均紧扣"防风险、强监管、促高质量 发展"工作主线，锚定三大核心方向推进2026年工作： 一是坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导。 工行、农行、建行、中行均强调要深刻领悟 "两个确立" 的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维 护"。其中，工行和农行还强调要增强 "四个意识"、坚定 "四个自信"。 工行和中行提出要牢固树立和践行正确政绩观、业绩观，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，抓好中 央巡视整改常态化长效化。农行、建行也明确要加强党的建设，树立正确业绩观，确保中央决 策部署落地见效。 二是聚焦主责主业，做深做实金融"五篇大文章"。 四家银行均提出要全面做好金融 "五篇大文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national financial system work conference outlined the core directions for the financial system's work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Core Directions for 2026 - The four major state-owned banks have reached a consensus on three core directions: maintaining centralized leadership from the Party, focusing on their main responsibilities, and ensuring the balance between development and safety [3][6]. - The banks emphasized the significance of understanding and implementing the "two establishments" and "two safeguards" to ensure effective execution of central policies [3][4]. Group 2: Focus on Main Responsibilities - The banks aim to enhance financial support in key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [4][5]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) plans to align with new policies and projects to boost consumption and stabilize investment through significant credit allocations [5][9]. - The banks are committed to improving financial services for the real economy, particularly in areas like green finance and support for small and micro enterprises [4][5]. Group 3: Risk Prevention and Management - All four banks prioritize the prevention and resolution of financial risks, with a focus on maintaining asset quality and managing various risks effectively [6][7]. - The banks are dedicated to ensuring that systemic risks do not occur, particularly in sectors like real estate and local government debt [7][8]. Group 4: Differentiated Work Focus - Each bank has defined its unique focus areas: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) emphasizes its role as a mainstay in the market, while China Construction Bank (CCB) focuses on digital transformation [8][9]. - Bank of China (BOC) aims to leverage its cross-border financial advantages to enhance global competitiveness and support international trade [9]. - ABC is committed to strengthening rural financing and supporting the high-quality development of rural economies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "Shanghai Science Credit Loan" aims to enhance financial support for technology-driven enterprises by using the "Shanghai Science Credit" as a key evaluation tool for innovation capabilities and financial assistance [1] Group 1: Policy and Implementation - The People's Bank of China Shanghai Branch, along with several local financial and regulatory bodies, has issued a notice to promote "Shanghai Science Credit Loan" as a specialized financial product for evaluating and supporting enterprise innovation [1] - Financial institutions in Shanghai are encouraged to utilize "Shanghai Science Credit" as a basis for assessing the innovation capabilities of local enterprises, facilitating loan issuance under manageable risk conditions [1] Group 2: Case Studies of Financial Support - A biotechnology company with a "Shanghai Science Credit" score above 80 has received a loan of 30 million yuan from Bank of Communications Shanghai Zhangjiang Branch, utilizing a differentiated credit model based on its innovation capabilities [2] - Shanghai Guangjiang Environmental Art Co., Ltd. increased its loan limit to 2.8 million yuan through collaboration with Bank of China Shanghai Branch, which utilized the "Shanghai Science Credit" evaluation to address financing challenges for small and medium-sized tech enterprises [3] Group 3: Features of "Shanghai Science Credit Loan" - The notice outlines that financial institutions should enhance the application of "Shanghai Science Credit" results, offering differentiated arrangements such as increased loan limits and reduced interest rates for top-ranked enterprises [4] - Institutions are encouraged to innovate the design of "Shanghai Science Credit Loan" products, focusing on key industries and enhancing the convenience of application processes through digital technology [4] Group 4: Future Directions - The People's Bank of China Shanghai Branch plans to establish a joint working mechanism to strengthen policy coordination and promote the expansion of "Shanghai Science Credit Loan" products [5]

来源：今日建行 12月12日，中国建设银行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，按照全国金融系统工作会议 要求，研究部署贯彻落实工作。党委书记、董事长张金良主持会议并讲话，党委成员，高管人员，驻建 设银行纪检监察组及总行相关部门负责人参加会议。 来源：今日建行 12月12日，中国建设银行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，按照全国金融系统工作会议 要求，研究部署贯彻落实工作。党委书记、董事长张金良主持会议并讲话，党委成员，高管人员，驻建 设银行纪检监察组及总行相关部门负责人参加会议。 会议指出，习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上发表的重要讲话，全面总结今年和"十四五"时期经济工 作，深入分析当前经济形势，系统部署明年经济工作，具有很强的政治性、思想性、指导性，为做好明 年和"十五五"时期经济工作提供了根本遵循和行动指南。全行要认真学习领会、贯彻落实中央经济工作 会议精神，与学习贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神相贯通，切实把思想和行动统一到习近平总书 记重要讲话精神和党中央决策部署上来，以实际行动坚定拥护"两个确立"、坚决做到"两个维护"。 会议强调，要深刻领会"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就 ...