证 券 研 究 报 告 供需两弱下的逆风局 2026年银行二永债年度策略 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 研究支持： 曹璇 A0230125070001 2025.11.19 主要内容 ◼ 供给：预计明年或继续维持相对低位，TLAC债有所补充 ✓ 近年来二永净供给下台阶，今年以来明显缩量。20-20年净供给约1万亿元，22-23年约为7000亿元，24年仅5500亿元左右，25年至今下降至3630亿元。 ✓ 市场步入成熟期：大行资本补充需求趋缓，中小银行承压或成发行主力。 ✓ 银行二永债：综合监管要求和资本充足率现状、二永债到期分布和获得批文情况，展望2026年，二永净融资可能维持平稳偏低水平，或与2024-2025年大致 相当（4000-5000亿左右），且呈现"大行占比下降、股份行/中小行占比提升"的特征。 ✓ TLAC非资本债券：2024-2025年发行规模整体低于预期，考虑TLAC监管指标现状、政策时点和TLAC债券发行计划额度，预计未来TLAC债券的供给压力也 相对可控，2026年净供给预计维持在3000亿元左右，或是银行次级债供给的重要补充。 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a crucial platform for global investors to share in the growth dividends of China's core assets, with significant inflows of southbound capital [1][12] - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchases of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [1] - The influx of long-term mainland funds, primarily from insurance and public offerings, is expected to support a "slow bull" market in Hong Kong [1][8] Southbound Capital Inflows - As of November 19, southbound capital net inflows through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflows since the launch of the Stock Connect have surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][3] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has become a core driver of liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, with its share of total market turnover rising from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - The total market value of southbound capital holdings exceeded 6.3 trillion HKD by the end of the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [3] Sector and Stock Preferences - The allocation of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with the banking sector previously dominating but now more evenly distributed across industries, including media, pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][4] - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now characterized by a "technology + dividend" strategy, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major beneficiaries [4] Fund Composition - Insurance funds and public funds constitute the majority of southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB (approximately 1.4 trillion HKD) by the end of the third quarter [7] - Public fund holdings reached 1.01 trillion RMB, accounting for about 18% of total southbound capital [7] Future Projections - Predictions indicate that southbound capital could see an additional inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential total increase of 10 trillion RMB (approximately 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [8] - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market fundamentals and support a "slow bull" market [8][9] Market Valuation and Asset Supply - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as having significant allocation value, with lower valuation levels compared to other major global markets [11] - The influx of quality companies listing in Hong Kong is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing market liquidity and attracting more capital [12][13] Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that periods of outperformance in the Hong Kong stock market have been driven by the scarcity of assets, with current trends reflecting similar dynamics as seen in previous advantageous periods [14]

北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）11月19日，建设银行深圳市分行因贷款"三查"不尽职；存贷挂钩； 理财业务开展不审慎；关联交易管理、并购贷款管理、票据业务管理不到位等违规行为，被罚款420万 元；相关责任人陈泽锐、严红、丁楷、韩壮壮被警告。 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The current credit growth continues to slow down, and social financing growth is also declining from high levels. Although policies are in place to support the market, their impact on demand recovery has not yet been reflected due to time lags. The retail risk for listed banks has increased but remains manageable, supported by substantial provisioning and stable dividend policies, which together form a "stable anchor" for the "dividend revaluation" logic of banks. The banks' advantages in capital markets, wealth management, and investment banking create a "growth sail" for differentiated valuations. Bank valuations are still at historically low levels, and medium to long-term funds have the potential for allocation, making increased allocation to the banking sector a favorable choice under the "high cut low" and balanced allocation strategy. It is recommended to invest in state-owned banks as they still offer good value compared to risk-free interest rates. Specific recommendations include CITIC Bank, benefiting from China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [7]. Summary by Sections Deposit and Loan Growth - The deposit and loan growth rates for small and medium-sized banks continued to recover, with the national large banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference at -1.31% at the end of October, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the end of September. The four major banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference narrowed by 0.02 percentage points to -2.10%. Small and medium-sized banks recorded a deposit-loan growth rate difference of 3.74%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [3][4]. Deposit Structure - In October, both large and small banks saw an acceleration in deposit growth, with large banks and small banks' deposit growth rates at 7.40% and 9.33%, respectively, increasing by 0.16 and 0.22 percentage points month-on-month. However, corporate deposits faced pressure, with both large and small banks experiencing negative growth in corporate deposits for the month. The increase in deposits was primarily driven by non-bank contributions, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" [4][5]. Credit Demand and Supply - The overall credit volume and structure remain poor, with small and medium-sized banks increasing lending. The total loans from deposit-taking financial institutions to residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease. The credit growth is under pressure due to unfulfilled demand and other factors, including banks completing most of their annual credit targets in the first three quarters and a lack of actual credit demand conversion from policy measures [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current environment, increasing allocation to the banking sector is recommended as it presents a favorable opportunity for investors. The report emphasizes the potential of state-owned banks and suggests specific banks for investment based on their performance and market conditions [7].

| .HSIADR 恒生指数ADR | | | --- | --- | | 26026.07 ↑ +96.04 +0.37% 收盘价 11/18 16:00 美东 | | | 二月日日 ■ | | | 最高价 26146.61 开盘价 25816.22 | 成交量 5085.28万 | | 最低价 25813.19 昨收价 25930.03 | 平均价 25979.90 | | 52周最高 27275.90 上 涨 -- | 平 智 -- | | 52周最低 18856.77 下 跌 -- | 振 幅 1.29% | | 800000 恒生指数 25930.03 -454.25 -1.72% | | 大型蓝筹股多数上涨，汇丰控股收报108.351港元，较香港收市跌1.14%；腾讯控股收报624.042港元，较香港收市涨0.09%。 智通财经APP获悉，周二，美股三大指数集体下跌。恒生指数ADR上涨，按比例计算，收报26026.07点，较香港收市升96.04或0.37%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换复价(HKD) | 较港股升跌 较 | | ...

曾经稳稳的存款收益，如今正悄然"缩水"，甚至部分银行直接让五年期定存"下架"？ 早年，这五年期定期存款是中老年投资者最信赖的理财方式之一。它保本、保息，利率高于短期存款，是保守型投资者的"安心之选"。 然而，时过境迁，这类产 品正逐渐退出主流舞台。 银行此举并非盲目跟风，而是有着深刻的现实考量。数据显示，2025年一季度，超三成定期存款客户提前支取，平均损失超过七成利息。 以10万元存五年期定存为例，如果存满到期，按1.6%的年利率可获利息8000元；但若在两年后提前支取，只能按0.05%的活期利率计息，利息仅100元，损 失高达98.75%。对客户和银行来说，这都是不愿看到的结果。 与此同时，银行存款利率已全面进入"1时代"。 更让人困惑的是，利率"倒挂"现象愈发普遍。比如中国建设银行三年期定期存款利率最高为1.55%，而五年期最高仅为1.3%。存五年反而比存三年收益低， 这种看似违背常理的现象，折射出银行对长期资金成本的忧虑。 而银行客户经理的推荐话术也悄然生变。当客户对定存利率表示"不满意"时，银保产品成为新的推销重点。 实际仔细看，银行下架五年期定存产品的背后，是我国银行业净息差持续承压的现实。净息差 ...

在如火如荼的"浙BA"篮球赛场上，金融安全知识悄然触达；在"健养安"特色网点，有老年人专属的理 财甚至贷款货架；在田间地头，乡村"土特产"银行不仅管贷，还管卖。市民来到商场购买家电、3C等 产品，享受"以旧换新"带来的国家补贴优惠，账目支出得明明白白；桨声欸乃中走向夜幕低垂的街头， 打开"建行生活"App，用消费券低价换一杯咖啡，品一品古城韵味……眼下各类消费场景，升腾起绍兴 城市的经济活力脉动与文化烟火气息。提振消费既是当前扩内需、稳增长的重要抓手，也是中长期转变 经济发展方式的重大举措。在名目繁多、随处可见的线上线下消费场景中，建设银行绍兴分行精心铺设 消费金融基础设施，运用信贷、支付等金融服务嵌入服务消费、商品消费及新型消费等场景，潜入消费 者差异化、个性化的文旅、体育、养老等需求之中，精准发力激活市场潜力，以金融"国家队"的姿态为 建设完善地方多层次消费金融服务体系提供了主渠道的支撑作用。 架起乡村特色农业与市场间"金桥" 小笼包、炒年糕、榨面，嵊州小吃作为地区传统饮食文化的代表，发展形成面食、米粉、豆制品等四大 类百余种特色品种，延伸了浙江多元餐饮消费地带。其中，传承近百年的嵊州小笼包，从走街串巷的 ...

通过"提振消费"与"以人为本"的耦合，消费增长稳定器得以筑牢。对此，建行始终置顶对"人"需求的精准捕捉，并以平台化发展逻辑，链接、赋能生态圈 各方，"促消费"的时代叙事亦有了生动的实践注脚 文｜程韦 张颖 编辑｜张颖 云南高原的褶皱里，有一片被群山环抱的"琉璃万顷"——玉溪抚仙湖。在湖边点一杯咖啡，便可织就一段慵懒又诗意的时光。若遇晴天和日，或许还能目 睹云层从橘渐染成紫的绝美"大片"。作为新晋的"出片胜地"，抚仙湖正引来越来越多游客驻足。 这是"情绪消费"升温的又一生动注脚。从疯抢潮玩IP到智能机器人狂欢，从"我的阿勒泰"到"跟着赛事去旅游"，近年来，"情绪消费"在满足更多人精神需 求的同时，持续破圈延伸，并一跃成为文旅等产业发展催化剂。 最新数据显示，今年前三季度，中国社会消费品零售总额36.59万亿元，同比增长4.5%，预计全年社零总额有望突破50万亿元。在增速较快的细分项目 中，就包括以文旅为代表的服务消费，还有以旧换新、数字商品消费等。 上述现象级的消费趋势表明，消费市场的底层逻辑正在改变——从过去需求决定供给，到如今依靠供给创新激发需求。与此同时，国民经济和社会发 展"十五五"规划亦明确提出，要大 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting small and micro enterprises, which are vital for economic development [1][7] - The China Construction Bank (CCB) is actively providing tailored financial solutions to small businesses in Taiyuan, helping them overcome challenges and innovate [2][4][6] Financial Support for Small Enterprises - CCB's Taiyuan branch has formed a specialized service team to cater to the financial needs of small business owners and individual entrepreneurs, offering flexible and convenient services [1][2] - The "Mortgage Quick Loan" product allows small enterprises to secure financing quickly by using quality real estate as collateral, with a recent case where a local inn received a loan of 540,000 yuan [2][3] - As of September 2025, the balance of inclusive micro loans in Shanxi Province reached 534.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, significantly outpacing the overall loan growth rate [3] Case Studies of Financial Assistance - Taiyuan's Wowo Inn benefited from a 540,000 yuan loan to upgrade its facilities and enhance its appeal to tourists, showcasing the impact of targeted financial support [2] - Taiyuan Tai Tong Da Logistics Co., Ltd. received 1.01 million yuan through the "Cloud Tax Loan" product, which helped the company manage cash flow and fulfill existing orders [4] - The Taiyuan branch also provided a 3 million yuan "Mortgage Quick Loan" to Peite Trading Co., Ltd., enabling the company to stock up for the upcoming sales season and improve its market competitiveness [6]

湛江水产市场15家冷链小微企业批量获得超1.84亿元的贷款，当地水产业前行步伐提速；广州市一德路 海味批发市场多家商户通过粤兴贷、经营信用快贷等破解了资金周转难题，老商圈升腾起绵长的烟火 气。 这些鲜活案例，共同勾勒出建行广东省分行以"圈链群"模式深耕普惠金融的生动图景。通过"一客群一 方案"的精准服务，该行将普惠金融注入产业链的每个环节，化作商户指尖的一泓清泉、市场升级的一 渠活水，成为激活整个产业链集群发展的关键动能。 聚焦水产客群融资难题 用数字化手段打破壁垒 "每到快过年时，水产品的需求量激增，就想着提前准备更多货物，迎接'肥年'的到来，可无奈之前卖 出去的货物回款慢，手头资金紧张就打消了这个念头。" 当建行湛江市分行客户经理小李走进湛江一水产品贸易公司时，老板陈先生正在为资金紧张发愁。据陈 先生介绍，他的生意还不错，业务量也比较可观，但扩大生产需要一定的资金支持。"我们生产的全是 冻品，不满足银行抵押贷款的条件，贷款对我们来说真的很难。"陈先生苦恼地说道。 原来，由于冷链水产货物对储存条件要求苛刻，且行业管理模式传统，银行难以对水产货物进行有效监 管和精准估值，使得陈老板的贷款申请一次又一次地碰壁。 ...