Summary of SMIC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points Demand and Market Outlook - **Near-term Demand**: No material change expected in near-term demand, with full loadings anticipated in a seasonally slower 4Q25E due to supply chain localization and domestic customer share gains [1][2] - **Memory Prices**: Memory prices are a critical factor influencing the end-demand outlook for 2026E, with management expressing concerns about memory shortages impacting handset and consumer electronics production [1][2] - **Customer Planning**: Customers are cautious in their 2026 business planning due to uncertainties regarding adequate memory supply [1][2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for FY25F, FY26F, and FY27F are largely unchanged, with slight adjustments made to gross margin (GM) and operating profit margin (OPM) reflecting efficiency gains [1][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Revised EPS for 2026F and 2027F increased by 20% and 29% respectively, reflecting the anticipated 100% net profit consolidation of SMNC starting from 2Q26F [1][3] - **Target Price (TP)**: The target price has been raised to HKD75.0, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.5x for 2026F [1][4] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth rates are 15.2% for FY25F, 18.1% for FY26F, and 12.0% for FY27F [3][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin expected to improve to 21.1% in FY25F and 21.7% in FY26F [3][16] - Operating margin projected at 10.9% for FY25F and 9.4% for FY26F [3][16] - **Net Profit**: Expected net profit for FY25F is USD590 million, increasing to USD734 million in FY26F [3][9] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - **Capex Plans**: SMIC plans to maintain a capex budget of USD7.5 billion for 2025E, similar to 2024 levels, with capacity additions expected to be uneven quarter to quarter [2][3] - **Supply and Competition**: SMIC will add more supply into 2026E, driven by domestic semiconductor localization demand, but will not engage in aggressive pricing unless necessary [2][3] Risks and Challenges - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected end-demand, slower-than-expected technology migration by competitors, successful mergers and acquisitions, and increased policy support from the Chinese government [12][24] - **Downside Risks**: Include weak end-demand and intensifying geopolitical issues [24] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: As of November 14, 2025, SMIC's market cap is approximately USD56.76 billion [4][8] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 12-month absolute return of 176.8% [8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the SMIC conference call, highlighting the company's outlook, financial performance, and market dynamics.

Market Overview - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, with all three major indices dropping over 1% in the afternoon. The total trading volume reached 1.94 trillion [1] - AI application stocks surged against the trend, with companies like Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a brief rally before retreating, with Longxun Co. and Dawei Co. also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, the coal sector declined, with Yunmei Energy hitting the daily limit [1] AI Applications - The AI application sector saw a significant rise, with companies such as Inspur Software, Geer Software, and Rongji Software achieving consecutive gains. Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology also hit the daily limit [4] - Ant Group launched a general AI assistant called "Lingguang" on November 18, capable of generating applications in 30 seconds using natural language, marking a significant industry milestone [4] - Google's upcoming Gemini 3.0 AI model is generating considerable industry interest, with predictions indicating its release next week [4][6] Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor stocks experienced a notable increase, with companies like Yaxiang Integrated and Longxun Co. hitting the daily limit [7] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage [7] - SMIC is prioritizing urgent orders for various semiconductor products, which has led to a temporary decrease in mobile phone business share [7][9] Investment Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that Alibaba's increased investment in consumer-facing AI applications will likely lead to sustained growth in data center energy consumption, benefiting its AI infrastructure partners in the long term [4] - Guosheng Securities highlights Google's strategic approach of building a comprehensive "infrastructure-model-scenario" system, leveraging its self-developed chips and extensive data center network [6] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see positive growth trends, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology reporting significant revenue increases in Q3 [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.72% at 25,930.03 points, and the total trading volume reaching 242.11 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.93%, indicating a lack of upward momentum in AI technology stocks amid a stagnant industrial environment [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Ctrip Group-S (09961) saw a rise of 1.62% to 564.5 HKD after reporting a 16% year-on-year increase in net operating revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 18.3 billion RMB [2] - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) increased by 1.44% to 74 HKD, contributing 7.4 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks faced pressure, with Tencent dropping over 2% and Alibaba slightly declining by 0.19% [3] - The semiconductor sector showed resilience, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 3.48% and SMIC by 1.44% [3][4] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks continued to decline, with Lingbao Gold (03330) down 8.88% and Zijin Mining International (02259) down 5.02% [4][5] - The market anticipates a continued adjustment phase for precious metals due to a decrease in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the 90,000 USD mark, marking a significant drop of nearly 30% from its peak in early October [6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Okex Chain (01499) down 6.82% [5] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector faced a collective adjustment, with companies like CATL (03931) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) experiencing declines of over 6% [7] - Predictions for lithium prices remain conservative, with expectations of limited upward movement in the near term [7] Notable Stock Movements - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a significant drop of 10.47% after reporting a net loss of 380 million RMB for Q3 [8] - Cambridge Technology (06166) rose by 7.52%, with plans to launch a 1.6T optical module in Q1 2026 [9] - Kingsoft Cloud (03896) increased by 4.1%, driven by strong growth prospects in AI [10]

| 代码 名称 | | 现价 | 张跌 | 张唱↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688727 N 自由 | | 58.28 +43.29+288.79% | | | | 688486 龙迅股份 | | 79.86 +13.31 +20.00% | | | | 688099 晶晨股份 | | 90.30 +10.15 +12.43% | | | | 688110 东芯胶份 | | 107.41 +10.94 +11.34% | | | | 002213 大为股份 | | 30.28 | +2.75 | +9.99% | | 688699 明微电子 | | 45.18 | +4.04 | +9.82% | | 688652 京仪装备 | | 98.22 | +7.02 | +7.70% | | 002371 | 北方华创 | 422.80 +22.12 | | +5.52% | | 688147 微导纳米 | | 62.70 | +3.22 | +5.41% | | 688498 源杰科技 | | 555.50 +28.49 | | +5.27% | | 688401 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the stock price of SMIC (00981) significantly increased in Q3 due to its position as a leading wafer foundry in mainland China, supporting the domestic production of AI chips. However, the bank emphasizes the need for actual profit data to sustain valuation premiums, which is unlikely to be realized in the next 6 to 12 months [1] Financial Performance - The bank has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 42% respectively, while increasing the target price from HKD 36 to HKD 57 [1] Margin Analysis - Despite strong demand for advanced process products and near-saturation capacity utilization, the company's gross margin remains at a low 20% level. The bank anticipates that significant improvements in gross margin will be difficult in the coming years due to rapidly rising depreciation costs [1] Yield and Pricing Pressure - The report notes that the yield rates for advanced process nodes are still relatively low, and although the proportion of related products continues to increase, the overall average selling price remains under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that SMIC's stock price significantly increased in Q3 due to its position as a leading wafer foundry in mainland China, supporting domestic AI chip production. However, the bank maintains a cautious outlook, emphasizing the need for actual profit data to sustain valuation premiums, which is unlikely to materialize in the next 6 to 12 months [1] Financial Performance - The bank has raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 42% respectively, and increased the target price from HKD 36 to HKD 57 [1] Margin Analysis - Despite strong demand for advanced process products and near-saturation capacity utilization, the company's gross margin remains at a low 20% level. The bank anticipates that gross margins will struggle to improve significantly in the coming years due to rapidly rising depreciation costs [1] Yield and Pricing Pressure - The bank notes that the yield rates for advanced process nodes are still relatively low, and although the proportion of related products is increasing, the overall average selling price remains under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electronic industry is experiencing a volatile and differentiated performance, with mixed results across various sectors [1][2] Overall Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.40%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.08%. The Shenwan electronic sector declined by 4.77%, ranking 30th out of 31 in terms of performance among all industries [1] - The top five gainers in the electronic sector were: Shenkong Co., Baibang Technology, Victory Precision, Liandong Technology, and Oni Technology. The top five losers were: Jingquanhua, Tiancheng Technology, Kangqiang Electronics, Tonglian Precision, and Sanhuan Group [1] Electronic Industry Summary - The electronic industry shows a clear trend of volatility and differentiation, with various sectors experiencing mixed performance. The other electronic II sector fell by 2.29%, while the other electronic III sector also saw a decline of 2.29%, indicating a consistent downward trend [2] - The components sector was the weakest performer, dropping by 9.25%. Within this sector, printed circuit boards fell by 1.97%, and passive components saw a significant decline of 7.92, highlighting a clear differentiation [2] - The semiconductor sector overall decreased by 3.97%, with notable internal structural differences. The semiconductor equipment sub-sector only fell by 0.43%, while discrete devices dropped by 4.17%. Analog chip design and integrated circuit testing fell by 2.26% and 4.97%, respectively, with semiconductor materials down by 1.56% [2] - The optical and optoelectronic sector experienced a slight decline of 1.25%, with LEDs down by 1.94% and optical components down by 4.46%. However, panels saw a counter-trend increase of 0.69%, indicating internal performance differentiation [2] - The consumer electronics sector continued its downward trend, falling by 6.18%. Brand consumer electronics dropped by 3.26%, and consumer electronic components and assembly fell by 4.64%, contributing significantly to the sector's overall decline [2] - The electronic chemicals II sector decreased by 2.44%, with the electronic chemicals III sub-sector also down by 2.44%, reflecting a lackluster performance in the materials segment [2] - Overall, the electronic industry is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with certain areas like panels showing positive performance, while components, consumer electronics, and some semiconductor sub-sectors remain under pressure [2]

Group 1: Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced a rebound, with notable stocks like Longxin Co. and Daway Co. hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - Key stocks such as SMIC, Cambrian, and Huagong Information also saw significant gains, indicating a strong market sentiment in the semiconductor industry [1][2] Group 2: Price Trends in Memory Chips - The price of DRAM has surged significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 171.8% expected by Q3 2025, driven by a "super cycle" in memory chips [4] - Samsung has raised prices for certain memory chips by up to 60% since September, with specific products like the 32GB DDR5 memory chip seeing a price increase from $149 to $239 [5][6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for high-performance storage, particularly from AI servers, is a key driver behind the price increases, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6][8] - Analysts predict that the shortage of traditional DRAM products like DDR4 may persist until 2027 due to the overwhelming demand from AI applications [7] Group 4: Industry Expansion and Future Outlook - SMIC reported a capacity utilization rate of 95.8%, indicating strong order demand and a supply shortage in the semiconductor market [8] - Major players like SK Hynix and Samsung are expanding their production capabilities to meet the growing demand, with significant investments planned for new facilities [8] - The long-term growth prospects for the storage industry are viewed positively, with expectations of continued price increases and supply-demand gaps in the coming years [8][9]

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF, Southern (159325), opened with a gain of 0.42%, priced at 1.428 yuan [1] - Key holdings in the ETF showed mixed performance, with notable declines in stocks such as Zhongke Sanan (-0.11%), Haiguang Information (-0.35%), and Zhaoyi Innovation (-1.07%), while Cambrian rose by 0.22% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Semiconductor Industry Select Index, managed by Southern Fund Management Co., with a return of 41.88% since its inception on October 31, 2024, and a recent one-month return of -2.43% [1]

该行维持谨慎看法，续予"减持"评级，将2026及27年每股盈利预测分别上调8%及42%，目标价由36港 元上调至57港元。 该行指，即使先进制程产品需求强劲，加上产能利用率接近饱和，公司的毛利率仍维持在低20%水平， 并预期未来几年毛利率难以显著提升，因折旧成本快速上升。此外，该行留意到先进制程节点的良率仍 然偏低，即使相关产品的占比持续提升，但整体平均售价仍然承压。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，中芯国际股价在第三季显著上升，因公司作为内地领先的晶圆代工生产增长 指标，支持AI芯片国产化生产。不过，该行认为需要见到实际盈利数据，才能支持估值持续溢价，而 在未来6至12个月内实现的可能性较低。 ...