Core Insights - On November 18, China Hongqiao made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, despite a closing drop of 5.88% [2]. Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 38.66 billion HKD, accounting for 39.31% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 7.18 billion HKD [2]. - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with 9.28 billion HKD, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with trading amounts of 5.85 billion HKD and 4.59 billion HKD, respectively [2]. - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor, each appearing 21 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2]. Individual Stock Performance - China Hongqiao's trading details on November 18 included a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, with a closing price of 21.80 HKD and a daily decline of 5.88% [2]. - Other notable stocks included: - Tencent Holdings: Trading volume of 5.85 billion HKD, net sell of 0.19 billion HKD, closing price of 623.50 HKD, and a daily drop of 2.04% [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading volume of 4.59 billion HKD, net buy of 0.85 billion HKD, closing price of 40.78 HKD, and a daily decline of 2.81% [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor: Trading volume of 3.61 billion HKD, net buy of 0.37 billion HKD, closing price of 80.25 HKD, and a daily increase of 3.48% [2].

Market Overview - On November 18, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 983.54 billion, comprising HKD 529.10 billion in buying and HKD 454.44 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 74.66 billion [2][3]. Southbound Trading Details - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading amount of HKD 366.04 billion, with net buying of HKD 47.21 billion, while the trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) totaled HKD 617.50 billion, with net buying of HKD 27.45 billion [2][3]. Active Stocks - Alibaba-W was the most actively traded stock with a total trading amount of HKD 92.79 billion and a net buying amount of HKD 32.97 billion, despite a closing price drop of 0.19% [2][3]. - Other notable stocks included Tencent Holdings with a trading amount of HKD 58.48 billion and a net selling of HKD 1.91 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W with a trading amount of HKD 45.92 billion and a net buying of HKD 8.54 billion [2][3]. Continuous Net Buying - Three stocks experienced continuous net buying for more than three days, with Xiaomi Group-W leading at 15 days, followed by Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor at 4 days each. The total net buying amounts were HKD 106.60 billion for Xiaomi Group-W and HKD 89.99 billion for Alibaba-W [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Saiwei Electronics, emphasizes its position as a third-party independent foundry in the semiconductor industry, focusing on MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) while differentiating itself from larger competitors like SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) [1] Group 1 - The company operates in the semiconductor wafer foundry manufacturing service sector, catering to customer demands [1] - SMIC is recognized as a major player in the integrated circuit industry, whereas Saiwei Electronics is still in its early development stage and has a relatively smaller scale [1]

Group 1 - The storage chip sector in A-shares has strengthened, with companies like Shikong Technology and Purun Co., Ltd. seeing significant price increases, driven by Samsung's continued price hikes for storage chips [1] - SMIC reported a tight supply of mobile storage chips, with a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - The storage market is experiencing price pressures, with manufacturers facing challenges in securing supply while maintaining competitive pricing for end products [2][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook for the first half of next year is cautious, although there is potential for optimism as the year progresses [3] - A 5% fluctuation in supply can lead to significant price volatility in the storage market, with current supply gaps expected to maintain high price levels [4] - SMIC has observed a clear demand for inventory replenishment, with clients actively increasing stock levels despite uncertainties in future supply [5][6]

Core Insights - On November 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 5.863 billion, 3.912 billion, and 3.075 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 3.416 billion, 1.935 billion, and 1.640 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 5.863 billion with a net buying amount of +1.678 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 3.912 billion with a net selling amount of -0.831 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) achieved a trading amount of 3.075 billion with a net buying amount of +0.633 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 2.588 billion with a net selling amount of -0.128 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 2.252 billion and a net buying amount of +29.105 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.416 billion with a net buying amount of +1.618 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.935 billion with a net buying amount of +0.639 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.640 billion with a net buying amount of +0.502 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 1.518 billion with a net buying amount of +0.220 billion [2] - Other significant companies included Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a trading amount of 1.361 billion and a net buying amount of +0.338 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural opportunities characterized by "capacity expansion" and "supply chain security," driven by AI and domestic substitution trends [1][7]. Semiconductor Industry Overview - The A-share market saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.29% [1]. - AI and high-performance storage demands are driving rapid capacity expansion in advanced processes, directly increasing global silicon wafer shipments and capital expenditures in wafer fabs [1][9]. - Despite a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector since October, the long-term development logic supporting domestic semiconductor stocks remains unchanged [1][8]. AI and Semiconductor Market Dynamics - AI applications are gaining strength, with companies like Rongji Software and Alibaba's "Qianwen" project making significant market moves [2][4]. - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a rebound, with companies like Longxin and Jingchen seeing substantial stock price increases, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor equipment market [4][5]. Price Trends in Memory Chips - Samsung has raised prices for server DDR5 memory chips by 30-60% due to supply shortages driven by the AI data center boom [5][6]. - NAND flash prices are also increasing, with major manufacturers implementing production cuts, leading to a projected price increase of 20-30% [6]. Capacity Utilization and Expansion - Domestic wafer manufacturers are experiencing high capacity utilization rates, with companies like SMIC reporting 95.8% utilization in Q3 [11]. - The ongoing demand for storage chips is expected to sustain the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued price increases and capital expenditure growth in the semiconductor sector [6][12]. Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), has seen a year-to-date increase of 45.98%, reflecting strong market interest in domestic substitution and key industry players [12][17]. - Companies like Cambrian Technology have reported significant revenue growth, with a nearly 24-fold increase in revenue year-over-year [14]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor sector is positioned to benefit from the anticipated AI demand and capacity expansion in the coming year, despite recent market fluctuations [16]. - The upcoming financial reports from major tech companies like NVIDIA and Alibaba are expected to provide positive signals for the semiconductor market, potentially catalyzing a rebound in A-share tech stocks [16].

Summary of SMIC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points Demand and Market Outlook - **Near-term Demand**: No material change expected in near-term demand, with full loadings anticipated in a seasonally slower 4Q25E due to supply chain localization and domestic customer share gains [1][2] - **Memory Prices**: Memory prices are a critical factor influencing the end-demand outlook for 2026E, with management expressing concerns about memory shortages impacting handset and consumer electronics production [1][2] - **Customer Planning**: Customers are cautious in their 2026 business planning due to uncertainties regarding adequate memory supply [1][2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for FY25F, FY26F, and FY27F are largely unchanged, with slight adjustments made to gross margin (GM) and operating profit margin (OPM) reflecting efficiency gains [1][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Revised EPS for 2026F and 2027F increased by 20% and 29% respectively, reflecting the anticipated 100% net profit consolidation of SMNC starting from 2Q26F [1][3] - **Target Price (TP)**: The target price has been raised to HKD75.0, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.5x for 2026F [1][4] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth rates are 15.2% for FY25F, 18.1% for FY26F, and 12.0% for FY27F [3][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin expected to improve to 21.1% in FY25F and 21.7% in FY26F [3][16] - Operating margin projected at 10.9% for FY25F and 9.4% for FY26F [3][16] - **Net Profit**: Expected net profit for FY25F is USD590 million, increasing to USD734 million in FY26F [3][9] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - **Capex Plans**: SMIC plans to maintain a capex budget of USD7.5 billion for 2025E, similar to 2024 levels, with capacity additions expected to be uneven quarter to quarter [2][3] - **Supply and Competition**: SMIC will add more supply into 2026E, driven by domestic semiconductor localization demand, but will not engage in aggressive pricing unless necessary [2][3] Risks and Challenges - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected end-demand, slower-than-expected technology migration by competitors, successful mergers and acquisitions, and increased policy support from the Chinese government [12][24] - **Downside Risks**: Include weak end-demand and intensifying geopolitical issues [24] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: As of November 14, 2025, SMIC's market cap is approximately USD56.76 billion [4][8] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 12-month absolute return of 176.8% [8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the SMIC conference call, highlighting the company's outlook, financial performance, and market dynamics.

Market Overview - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, with all three major indices dropping over 1% in the afternoon. The total trading volume reached 1.94 trillion [1] - AI application stocks surged against the trend, with companies like Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a brief rally before retreating, with Longxun Co. and Dawei Co. also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, the coal sector declined, with Yunmei Energy hitting the daily limit [1] AI Applications - The AI application sector saw a significant rise, with companies such as Inspur Software, Geer Software, and Rongji Software achieving consecutive gains. Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology also hit the daily limit [4] - Ant Group launched a general AI assistant called "Lingguang" on November 18, capable of generating applications in 30 seconds using natural language, marking a significant industry milestone [4] - Google's upcoming Gemini 3.0 AI model is generating considerable industry interest, with predictions indicating its release next week [4][6] Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor stocks experienced a notable increase, with companies like Yaxiang Integrated and Longxun Co. hitting the daily limit [7] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage [7] - SMIC is prioritizing urgent orders for various semiconductor products, which has led to a temporary decrease in mobile phone business share [7][9] Investment Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that Alibaba's increased investment in consumer-facing AI applications will likely lead to sustained growth in data center energy consumption, benefiting its AI infrastructure partners in the long term [4] - Guosheng Securities highlights Google's strategic approach of building a comprehensive "infrastructure-model-scenario" system, leveraging its self-developed chips and extensive data center network [6] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see positive growth trends, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology reporting significant revenue increases in Q3 [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.72% at 25,930.03 points, and the total trading volume reaching 242.11 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.93%, indicating a lack of upward momentum in AI technology stocks amid a stagnant industrial environment [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Ctrip Group-S (09961) saw a rise of 1.62% to 564.5 HKD after reporting a 16% year-on-year increase in net operating revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 18.3 billion RMB [2] - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) increased by 1.44% to 74 HKD, contributing 7.4 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks faced pressure, with Tencent dropping over 2% and Alibaba slightly declining by 0.19% [3] - The semiconductor sector showed resilience, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 3.48% and SMIC by 1.44% [3][4] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks continued to decline, with Lingbao Gold (03330) down 8.88% and Zijin Mining International (02259) down 5.02% [4][5] - The market anticipates a continued adjustment phase for precious metals due to a decrease in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the 90,000 USD mark, marking a significant drop of nearly 30% from its peak in early October [6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Okex Chain (01499) down 6.82% [5] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector faced a collective adjustment, with companies like CATL (03931) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) experiencing declines of over 6% [7] - Predictions for lithium prices remain conservative, with expectations of limited upward movement in the near term [7] Notable Stock Movements - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a significant drop of 10.47% after reporting a net loss of 380 million RMB for Q3 [8] - Cambridge Technology (06166) rose by 7.52%, with plans to launch a 1.6T optical module in Q1 2026 [9] - Kingsoft Cloud (03896) increased by 4.1%, driven by strong growth prospects in AI [10]

| 代码 名称 | | 现价 | 张跌 | 张唱↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688727 N 自由 | | 58.28 +43.29+288.79% | | | | 688486 龙迅股份 | | 79.86 +13.31 +20.00% | | | | 688099 晶晨股份 | | 90.30 +10.15 +12.43% | | | | 688110 东芯胶份 | | 107.41 +10.94 +11.34% | | | | 002213 大为股份 | | 30.28 | +2.75 | +9.99% | | 688699 明微电子 | | 45.18 | +4.04 | +9.82% | | 688652 京仪装备 | | 98.22 | +7.02 | +7.70% | | 002371 | 北方华创 | 422.80 +22.12 | | +5.52% | | 688147 微导纳米 | | 62.70 | +3.22 | +5.41% | | 688498 源杰科技 | | 555.50 +28.49 | | +5.27% | | 688401 ...