该行维持谨慎看法，续予"减持"评级，将2026及27年每股盈利预测分别上调8%及42%，目标价由36港 元上调至57港元。 该行指，即使先进制程产品需求强劲，加上产能利用率接近饱和，公司的毛利率仍维持在低20%水平， 并预期未来几年毛利率难以显著提升，因折旧成本快速上升。此外，该行留意到先进制程节点的良率仍 然偏低，即使相关产品的占比持续提升，但整体平均售价仍然承压。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，中芯国际股价在第三季显著上升，因公司作为内地领先的晶圆代工生产增长 指标，支持AI芯片国产化生产。不过，该行认为需要见到实际盈利数据，才能支持估值持续溢价，而 在未来6至12个月内实现的可能性较低。 ...

Group 1 - Semiconductor industry shows signs of recovery with SMIC's Q3 capacity utilization and ASP increasing by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by product structure optimization [5][6] - SMIC's Q3 revenue reached 17.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with net profit growing by 43.1% to 1.517 billion yuan, and gross margin at 25.5%, up 4.8 percentage points [6] - Baidu announced its five-year roadmap for Kunlun chips, entering a strategic acceleration phase in AI, with the launch of the Wenxin model 5.0 and Kunlun M100, M300 products [7] Group 2 - The electronic sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index dropping by 4.77%, lagging behind the broader market by 3.69 points [8][9] - Investment recommendations include focusing on AIOT beneficiaries like Lexin Technology and semiconductor equipment firms amid a recovering demand environment [9] - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials industries, suggesting attention to companies like North Huachuang and Micro Company [9] Group 3 - The global semiconductor sales reached a historical high of 69.5 billion USD in September, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, indicating an upward trend in the industry [13] - The report emphasizes the potential of the technology sector, particularly in chips and semiconductors, due to the higher cost-performance ratio of domestic computing power compared to the US [13]

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 11月18日消息，中芯国际表示，该公司的产线非常满，三季度产能利用率达到95.8%，订单 很多，产线供不应求。 四季度指引没有大的跃升的原因之一是手机市场现在存储器特别紧缺，价格也涨得非常厉 害。 据 中芯国际 财报显示，该公司前三季度营收约495.1亿元，同比增加18.2%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润约38.18亿元，同比大增41.1%；毛利率为 23.2%，同比增长5.6个百分点。 单看第三季度，中芯国际营业收入171.62亿元，环比增长6.9%；实现净利润15.17亿元，同 比增长43.1%；毛利率为25.5%，环比上升4.8个百分点；产能利用率上升至95.8%，环比增 长3.3个百分点。 财报显示，中芯国际的产能利用率进一步提升，从第二季度的92.5%上升至95.8%，折合8英 寸标准逻辑月产产能达到百万片。 整体来看，存储的影响是双向的。对当前是提拉订单，对来年是看不清。据观察，存储供应短缺或过剩 5%就有可能给价格带来成倍的影响。目前行业供应存在缺口，预计高价位态势将持续。 此外，NO ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.47%, down 387 points, closing at 25,997 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.67% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a morning trading volume of HKD 134.5 billion [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks showed resilience, with SMIC reporting full production lines and significant price increases in memory chips [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor rose over 4%, while SMIC increased by 1.5% [1] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Ctrip Group's stock rose by 1.53% after reporting a net profit of RMB 19.9 billion for the third quarter, highlighting strong international business performance [1] - CIMC Enric Holdings increased by 3.89% as it announced a share buyback plan of up to HKD 200 million and reported a significant acceleration in new orders for the third quarter [2] - Cambridge International's stock rose over 3% due to its focus on silicon photonics technology, benefiting from high demand in computing power [3] Group 4: Entertainment and Coal Sector - Maoyan Entertainment's stock fell over 2%, with a cumulative drop of 10% over three days, attributed to a significant decline in box office revenue for "Demon Slayer" after three days of release [4] - Coal stocks experienced notable declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining down 4.88% and Yancoal Australia down 3.8%, as institutions suggest a short-term peak in coal prices [4] Group 5: Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks collectively declined, with prices of lithium carbonate continuing to rise, and analysts indicating limited upward potential for lithium prices next year [4] - CATL fell by 3.8%, Contemporary Amperex Technology by 8.6%, and Ganfeng Lithium by 6.5% [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in chip-related stocks, with the first ETF focused on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain (159131) increasing by 0.62% [1] - Key component stocks included Hua Hong Semiconductor, which rose over 7%, and Kingsoft Cloud, which increased nearly 5% [1] - SMIC reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage in the market [2][3] Group 2 - The newly launched ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Composite Index, with a composition of 70% hardware and 30% software, focusing on semiconductor, electronics, and computer software sectors [3] - SMIC's market position is expected to remain stable due to long verification cycles and high barriers to entry for new competitors in the NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and MCU markets [3] - The ETF includes 42 Hong Kong hard tech companies, with SMIC holding a weight of 20.27%, Xiaomi Group at 9.11%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor at 5.64% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are performing strongly against market trends, with notable gains in several companies [1] Company Summaries - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) increased by 7.74%, reaching HKD 83.55 [1] - SMIC (00981.HK) rose by 3.7%, trading at HKD 75.65 [1] - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) saw a gain of 2.54%, priced at HKD 41.96 [1] - Jingmen Semiconductor (02878.HK) experienced a slight increase of 1.09%, with a price of HKD 0.465 [1]

Market Performance - On November 18, semiconductor equipment stocks collectively surged, with Jingyi Equipment rising by 10%, and industry leaders like Northern Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, and Zhongwei Company increasing by approximately 7% [1] - Storage companies such as Dazhiwei and Dongxin shares experienced significant gains [1] Industry Developments - SMIC reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply-demand imbalance in the market [3] - The company has taken on a large number of urgent orders for storage products, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCUs, leading to a temporary reduction in mobile business share [3] - Media reports indicate that Yangtze Memory Technologies is constructing a third factory in Wuhan, expected to be operational by 2027, while also increasing capacity at its second factory [3] Institutional Insights - Domestic advanced logic production line expansions are expected to accelerate by 2026, with SMIC indicating future capacity expansion [4] - SEMI forecasts that global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment will reach $374 billion from 2026 to 2028, with China leading in this investment [4] - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies reported positive growth in Q3, with Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company showing significant profit increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are performing strongly despite market conditions, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, and others [1] Company Summary - SMIC reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The company is experiencing a shortage of memory components in the mobile market, leading to significant price increases [1] - SMIC has prioritized urgent orders for various memory types, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCU, which has resulted in a temporary decrease in the proportion of mobile business [1] Industry Summary - The trend towards supply chain security and self-sufficiency is expected to continue in the long term, as highlighted by recent analyses [2] - The performance of SMIC supports the logic of domestic substitution, providing intrinsic support for the equipment sector [2] - Looking ahead to Q4 2025 and 2026, strong demand for artificial intelligence is anticipated to drive growth in computing power, storage, and advanced packaging, with ongoing opportunities in semiconductor equipment and materials [2]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are performing well despite market conditions, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC, indicating strong demand and operational capacity in the sector [1][2]. Company Performance - SMIC reported a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating high demand and a supply-constrained environment [1]. - The company is experiencing a temporary decline in mobile business share due to prioritizing urgent orders for various memory types, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCU, which has led to the postponement of some non-urgent mobile orders [1]. Industry Trends - The trend towards supply chain security and self-sufficiency is expected to continue, supporting the domestic semiconductor industry [2]. - The demand for artificial intelligence is projected to remain strong, driving the need for computing power, storage, and advanced packaging, which will benefit the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors [2].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline, with technology stocks falling, automotive stocks weakening, and semiconductor stocks performing strongly [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) followed the index down, with major holdings like Xpeng Motors, Lenovo Group, NIO, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi seeing significant declines, while Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC led the gains [1] - SMIC reported a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply-demand imbalance, with a decrease in mobile business share due to prioritizing urgent orders [1] Group 2 - The impact of storage supply is dual-sided, with current orders being boosted but uncertainty for the next year; a 5% shortage or surplus could significantly affect prices [2] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a supply gap, with high prices expected to persist; new entrants face long validation cycles and high barriers to entry, stabilizing the market position of existing suppliers [2] - SMIC's Q3 financial report showed increased capacity utilization and a 3.8% increase in average selling price (ASP), driven by product structure optimization, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 [2]