据中央气象台发布信息，今年下半年以来最强冷空气已上线，大部地区将出现今年下半年以来最低气 温。据悉，10月19日至21日，随着冷空气东移南下，中东部地区气温普遍下降4-8℃，局地降温达10℃ 以上。北方多地气温创今年下半年新低。20日早晨，北京南郊观象台最低气温降至-0.5℃。沈阳、银川 等城市气温立秋后首次跌破冰点，上海、杭州、南昌等地气温则立秋后首次跌破20℃。 10月以来，A股市场整体呈现回调态势，尤其是以创业板和科创板为代表的科技股调整幅度较大。但与 此同时，红利风格再度回归，截至10月20日收盘，上证红利指数月内涨幅达5.6%，创年内最佳月度表 现。 上证红利指数大涨背后，煤炭股功不可没。数据显示，截至10月20日收盘，申万煤炭指数月内涨超 12%，位列全部31只申万一级行业指数首位，且涨幅领先第二位的银行指数达7个百分点，月内表现可 谓"一骑绝尘"。 成分股方面，大有能源以近79%的月涨幅在板块内居首，宝泰隆、安泰集团、郑州煤电等月内涨幅均超 过30%。行业龙头中国神华、陕西煤业月内分别上涨9.69%和14.5%，在上证50成分股中表现仅次于农业 银行，涨幅分列第三和第二位。 值得注意的是，煤炭板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong coal stocks continue their strong performance due to improving fundamentals and renewed interest in dividend assets, with significant price increases observed in several companies [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jinma Energy (06885.HK) surged over 13%, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) rose approximately 4%, and China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) and other stocks increased by over 2% [1][2]. - As of the latest data, Jinma Energy's price reached 1.290, with a gain of 0.150 (13.16%), while Yanzhou Coal's price was 11.460, up by 0.450 (4.09%) [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic coal consumption has reached the highest level for the same period in the past five years, driven by unusual high temperatures and expectations of a cold winter, which have boosted winter storage demand [1][3]. - The coal prices at northern ports increased significantly, with the price of thermal coal at 748 RMB/ton as of October 17, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 39 RMB/ton [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since the implementation of the overproduction inspection policy by the Energy Bureau in July, domestic coal production has been constrained, with production declining year-on-year for two consecutive months in July and August, leading to overall inventory levels falling below last year's figures [6]. - The coal industry is experiencing a dual improvement in supply and demand, with analysts noting that coal prices have consistently exceeded expectations [6]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The coal sector is viewed favorably due to both cyclical and dividend logic, with expectations of improved supply-demand fundamentals driven by production constraints and seasonal demand recovery [7]. - The capital market's response to global economic uncertainties and domestic economic stabilization has led to a surge in investment sentiment, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong coal stocks continue their recent upward trend, with significant gains observed in various companies [1] Company Performance - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) increased by 4.18%, reaching HKD 11.47 [1] - Yancoal Australia (兖煤澳大利亚) rose by 2.5%, trading at HKD 28.7 [1] - China Coal Energy Company (中煤能源) saw a rise of 2.41%, priced at HKD 11.06 [1] - China Shenhua Energy Company (中国神华) experienced a 2.29% increase, with shares at HKD 41.08 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by a significant increase in thermal coal prices, with expectations for further price rises as the heating season approaches [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) rose by 4.18%, reaching HKD 11.47 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668) increased by 2.5%, reaching HKD 28.7 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898) saw a rise of 2.41%, reaching HKD 11.06 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088) increased by 2.29%, reaching HKD 41.08 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - As of October 17, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price was RMB 748/ton, up by RMB 43/ton, a 6.1% increase [1] - Other port price indicators have reached around RMB 750/ton, nearing the expected coal-electricity profit-sharing price [1] - There is an expectation for prices to rise to the RMB 800-860 range due to the onset of the heating season and the peak demand for non-electric coal [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The industry fundamentals are improving due to positive changes on both the supply and demand sides, leading to coal price increases that exceed expectations [1] - The resurgence of trade conflicts may intensify market style shifts, enhancing the attractiveness of coal stocks due to their defensive dividend characteristics and clear fundamental turning points [1]

消息面上，动力煤价格近期大涨。开源证券指出，截至10月17日，秦港Q5500动力煤平仓价为748元/ 吨，环比上涨43元/吨，涨幅6.1%，其他港口价格指标有的已达到750元，几近完成我们提示的煤电盈利 均分的价格，静待价格上穿过程，有望至800-860区间。电煤消费有望受益供暖季开启，叠加非电煤旺 季，价格有望持续上升趋势。 国泰海通发布研报称，受益行业基本面受到供给和需求端的双重好转，煤价涨幅持续超预期。市场风偏 方面，贸易冲突再起后可能导致本就有高低切的风格切换诉求来的更加剧烈。无论是防守型的红利属 性，还是低位基本面有明显拐点的煤炭可能对于市场的吸引力都在大幅度提升。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171)涨4.18%，报11.47港元；兖煤澳 大利亚(03668)涨2.5%，报28.7港元；中煤能源(01898)涨2.41%，报11.06港元；中国神华(01088)涨 2.29%，报41.08港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The recent surge in thermal coal prices is attributed to unexpected demand due to climate anomalies and tightened supply from production checks. The report suggests that similar conditions to previous price spikes could lead to further price increases in Q4 2025 [2][6][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 4.14% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.37 percentage points, ranking 2nd out of 32 industries [6][15]. - As of October 17, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 748 RMB/ton, up 43 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang Port rose to 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 80 RMB/ton [6][15][44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report highlights that the thermal coal price has seen a significant increase due to early winter conditions and tight supply. The price is expected to continue to rise in Q4 due to these factors [6][16]. - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.188 million tons, a decrease of 5.4% week-on-week but an increase of 0.8% year-on-year [16][36]. Price Movements - The report notes that the thermal coal price has increased by 6.10% recently, with significant price movements observed in the past five years during similar conditions [7][44]. - The report also discusses the historical context of price increases, identifying key periods where prices surged due to supply constraints and demand spikes [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal stocks that have shown signs of bottom reversal and possess defensive characteristics, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions [7]. - Specific companies highlighted for their potential include Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shanxi Coal International Energy [7][28].

——煤炭行业周报（10月第2周） 证券研究报告 大寒潮+严安全，旺季积极布局 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月17日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.27%，沪深300指数下跌2.22%，跑赢沪深300指数6.49个百分点。全板块整周28只股价上涨，7只 下跌，2只持平。大有能源涨幅最高，整周涨幅为53.13%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月10日-2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为705万吨，周环比增加7.7%，年同比减少5.7%。其中，动力煤周日均 销量较上周增加8.4%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加8.1%，无烟煤销量较上周增加1.3%。截至2025年10月16日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为691万吨，周环比增加2.5%，年同比减少6.1%； 重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2436万吨，周环比减少3.9%，年同比减少11.3%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量200342.8万吨，同比减少2.6%；其中动力煤、 焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3.6%、-2.8%、6.2%。需求端，电力、化工行业累计耗煤分别同比减少2.7%、增加15 ...

煤价如期上涨，板块反转可期 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 煤价如期上涨，板块反转可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 ht ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. will hold a performance briefing for the third quarter of 2025 to discuss its operational results and financial status with investors [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The performance briefing will take place on October 27, 2025, from 16:00 to 17:00 [3][5]. - The event will be conducted via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online interactive platform [2][6]. - Investors can submit questions for the briefing from October 20 to October 24, 2025, and the company will address common concerns during the session [2][7]. Group 2: Participation Information - Investors can register and log in to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online platform to participate in the briefing [4][5]. - The company encourages active participation from investors and will provide answers to their questions during the event [7][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the performance of flexible stocks due to rising coal prices during the peak season [2][4][21] - In September, significant events included the strict enforcement of safety regulations in coal-producing areas and the release of a consultation draft for coking coal options [5][6] - The report notes that the domestic coal production growth rate is slowing, with a focus on the supply side and the impact of safety inspections on production capacity [10][28] Group 2 - Demand for coal is strong ahead of maintenance on the Daqin railway, with high iron and steel production during the "golden September and silver October" period [4][21] - The coal supply-demand balance indicates a potential increase in coal prices as the market adjusts to seasonal demand fluctuations [22][20] - The report anticipates that the seasonal adjustment of railway freight rates will enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility [16][14] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal production and sales trends, indicating that coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is stabilizing, while overall production is concentrated among a few large companies [33][41] - The coal import volume has decreased significantly, with a notable decline in imports from Indonesia and Mongolia, reflecting broader market trends [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and production levels, particularly in light of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [39][42]