中国神华(01088)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.6%，报41.04港元，成交额2.75亿港元。 消息面上，1月30日晚，中国神华公布，预计集团2025年度的归属于公司所有者的本年利润为人民币508 亿元至人民币558亿元，与上年披露数据相比，下降18.6%至10.6%；与经重述的上年数据相比下降 14.7%至6.3%。公告指，2025年，集团生产经营态势保持平稳，一体化运营核心优势持续巩固，能源安 全稳定供应得到有力保障。但受行业供需形势变化影响，集团煤炭销售量及平均销售价格下降，导致经 营业绩同比下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088) shares fell over 4%, currently down 4.6% at HKD 41.04, with a trading volume of HKD 275 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Shenhua expects its profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 to be between RMB 50.8 billion and RMB 55.8 billion, representing a decline of 18.6% to 10.6% compared to the previous year's disclosed data [1] - Compared to the restated figures from the previous year, the expected profit decline is between 14.7% to 6.3% [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - The company indicates that its production and operational situation will remain stable in 2025, with core advantages of integrated operations continuing to be reinforced [1] - Energy security and stable supply are effectively guaranteed, despite the challenges faced [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The decline in performance is attributed to changes in industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a decrease in coal sales volume and average selling prices [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry and Key Companies Industry Overview - The coal market is experiencing a new cycle with decreasing inventories and rising expectations for prices, driven by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical risks, indicating that coal is currently undervalued and has significant upside potential [1][3] - The overall performance of the coal industry in 2026 is expected to be optimistic, with a slight increase in coal prices leading to significant improvements in production and sales [6] Key Companies and Performance China Shenhua - Expected to achieve a profit of 49.5 to 54.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a quarterly profit of 12.95 billion yuan in Q4, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - Anticipated 10% growth in 2026 post-asset injection, potentially reaching 57 to 58 billion yuan, with a possible increase to 60 billion yuan if prices rise slightly [5] - Projected market capitalization could reach 1 trillion yuan, with dividend yields of 4.4% and 4.7% in A-shares and H-shares respectively [5] Shanxi Coking Coal - Forecasted profit for 2025 is between 970 million to 1.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 56.3% to 68.75% [5] - Expected to see a price increase in coking coal in 2026, indicating a potential turning point for performance [5] Panjiang Coal and Electricity - Projected profit for 2025 is between 318 million to 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 205.3% to 264.83% [5] - Q4 profit approached 400 million yuan, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong future growth potential [5] Huai Bei Mining - Expected to see significant growth in 2026, with total production capacity projected to reach 42.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.36% [15][18] - The company is also expected to benefit from its electricity business and sand and gravel aggregate operations, contributing to overall profitability [17][18] Market Dynamics - Recent trends show a divergence in prices: crude oil prices increased by 15.7%, natural gas by 9.4%, while coal prices decreased by 7.8% [3] - The demand for coal is expected to remain strong due to high consumption levels in power plants, with coal inventories at power plants decreasing by 2.4% week-on-week [9] - The cold wave in February is expected to maintain high daily consumption levels in power plants, further tightening supply and demand dynamics, which is favorable for coal prices [12] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is viewed positively for investment, with recommendations for China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining as key stocks to watch [2][13] - Other companies with strong growth potential include Huai Bei Mining, which is expected to benefit from market trends and management initiatives [19] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of price increases and improved performance across the coal sector in 2026 [14][19] Additional Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, could further elevate crude oil prices, which historically correlate with coal prices [3] - The coal market is currently seen as undervalued, presenting a compelling investment opportunity as prices are expected to align with rising crude oil prices [3]

Major Events - Lanke Technology (06809) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 4, with an expected listing on February 9 [1] - Aixin Yuanzhi (00600) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 5, with an expected listing on February 10 [1] - Lexin Outdoor (02720) will conduct an IPO from January 31 to February 5, raising HKD 130 million from Horizon Capital and Huangshan Dejun [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (09980) sets the offer price at HKD 248 per share [1] - Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for a trivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine [1] - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical (00867) received approval for the first and only targeted drug for vitiligo treatment in China [1] - Shishi Pharmaceutical Group (02005) received production registration for Propafenone Hydrochloride Injection from the National Medical Products Administration [1] - China Aluminum (02600) plans to jointly acquire 68.6% of Brazilian Aluminum from Rio Tinto and will initiate a mandatory offer [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) plans to transfer 100% equity of Inner Mongolia Xintai Coal [1] - Botai Car Union (02889) plans to collaborate with Ping An Property & Casualty to reconstruct the smart travel insurance ecosystem [1] - Jin Jing New Energy (01783) signed a strategic framework agreement with Tianqi Grand for lithium battery recycling and precious metal extraction [1] - Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Holdings (01396) subsidiary Hongce Data introduces Fudian Capital as a strategic investor for 40% equity [1] - China Mobile (00941), China Unicom (00762), and China Telecom (00728) will adjust the applicable scope of value-added tax for telecom services [1] Operating Performance - BYD Company (01211) sold approximately 210,000 new energy vehicles in January [2] - Geely Automobile (00175) reported total vehicle sales of 270,200 units in January, a year-on-year increase of about 1% [2] - Chery Automobile (09973) saw total sales of 191,500 vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of about 10.7% [2] - Seres (09927) reported total vehicle sales of 45,900 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) sold approximately 90,300 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 11.59% [2] - Li Auto-W (02015) delivered 27,668 new vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [2] - NIO-SW (09866) delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 96.1% [2] - GAC Group (02238) reported vehicle sales of 116,600 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) released a preliminary report indicating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.912 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71% [2] - Shandong Gold (01787) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56% to 66% [2] Earnings Forecast - SF Express (09699) expects a year-on-year profit increase of no less than 80% for 2025 [3] - China International Capital Corporation (03908) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% [3] - China Shenhua (01088) expects a year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 [3] - Datang Power (00991) anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.8 billion to 7.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 51% to 73% [3] - China Southern Airlines (01055) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, turning a profit [3] - Air China (00753) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - GAC Group (02238) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - Ansteel (00347) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.077 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year narrowing of 42.75% [3] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 873 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 31.85% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [10][11] - The coal supply is expected to tighten due to domestic supply constraints and Indonesia's reduction in coal production targets, which will support a stable recovery in coal prices throughout the year [10][11] - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [10][11] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, and public funds currently underweight in coal holdings [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 31, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 691 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 74.5 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1780 CNY/ton [31] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 88.3%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [10][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 8.30 thousand tons/day (-1.8%) [50] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 7.70 thousand tons/day (-3.3%) [50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [13][16] - The thermal coal segment rose by 4.07%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.92% [16] 4. Future Outlook - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating new high-quality capacity planning to meet medium to long-term energy demands [11] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to macroeconomic improvements and regulatory changes [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, with a target price of RMB 46.85 per share for A-shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The 25-year performance forecast is generally in line with expectations, and the acquisition of group assets is progressing smoothly [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is set at RMB 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.3% to 2.3%, which is better than the non-recurring profit performance [6]. - The company plans to acquire 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total transaction price of RMB 133.6 billion, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and profitability [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 343,074 million - 2024A: RMB 338,375 million - 2025E: RMB 310,460 million (down 8.2% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 327,292 million (up 5.4% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 338,435 million (up 3.4% YoY) [2][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 59,694 million - 2024A: RMB 58,671 million - 2025E: RMB 52,293 million (down 10.9% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 54,759 million (up 4.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 57,498 million (up 5.0% YoY) [2][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 3.00 - 2024A: RMB 2.95 - 2025E: RMB 2.63 - 2026E: RMB 2.76 - 2027E: RMB 2.89 [2][10] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 14.6% in 2023A, declining to 11.9% in 2025E, then recovering to 12.3% in 2027E [2][10]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 10.4 in 2023A, increasing to 15.9 in 2025E, then stabilizing around 14.5 in 2027E [2][10]. - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is projected to be RMB 89,687 million in 2023A, decreasing to RMB 82,544 million in 2025E, and recovering to RMB 92,973 million by 2027E [11].

根据公告，中国神华拟发行A股股份及支付现金购买控股股东国家能源投资集团旗下12家核心企业股 权，并于A股募集配套资金。公司已于1月30日收到上海证券交易所出具的《关于受理中国神华能源股 份有限公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金申请的通知》。上海证券交易所依据相关规定对申请文件 进行了核对，认为该项申请文件齐备，符合法定形式，决定予以受理并依法进行审核。 值得注意的是，此次交易备受市场关注，不仅因其涉及千亿量级的资产规模，更因其有望成为上海证券 交易所简易审核程序的首个适用案例。 新华财经北京1月31日电（记者沈寅飞）中国神华31日发布公告称，发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募 集配套资金暨关联交易的申请文件，获得上海证券交易所受理。 业内人士指出，简易程序体现了分类监管、精准监管的现代监管理念。对于运作规范、信息披露充分的 优质企业来说，这种审核效率提升尤为显著。 中国神华相关负责人表示，中国神华本次重组是国家能源集团内部煤炭及相关资产的专业化整合，旨在 构建更完整的产业链闭环，解决长期存在的同业竞争问题。简易程序的应用，将使这类符合国家战略方 向的整合更为顺畅高效。 （文章来源：新华财经） 根据《上海证券交易所 ...

中证报中证网讯(记者刘丽靓)1月30日晚间，中国神华（601088）发布公告称，发行股份及支付现金购 买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易的申请文件，获得上海证券交易所受理。 根据公告，公司拟发行A股股份及支付现金购买控股股东国家能源投资集团旗下12家核心企业股权，并 于A股募集配套资金。公司已于1月30日收到上海证券交易所出具的《关于受理中国神华能源股份有限 公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金申请的通知》。上海证券交易所依据相关规定对申请文件进行了 核对，认为该项申请文件齐备，符合法定形式，决定予以受理并依法进行审核。 2025年5月，上海证券交易所发布了《上市公司重大资产重组审核规则(2025年5月修订)》。根据规则， 发行股份购买资产符合下列情形之一的，可以适用简易审核程序：即本次交易属于上市公司之间换股吸 收合并；上市公司本次发行股份购买资产的董事会决议公告日前连续二十个交易日在本所股票收盘总市 值均超过100亿元，最近两年本所对上市公司信息披露质量评价为A，同时本次交易不构成重大资产重 组。 中国神华相关负责人表示，公司作为市值规模大、公司治理规范、经营稳健的能源行业龙头企业，符合 简易审核程序的核心要求 ...

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临2026-006 中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1. 按中国企业会计准则，本公司预计2025年度实现归属于本公司股东的净利润为495亿元至545亿元。与 上年法定披露数据相比，减少92亿元至42亿元，下降15.7%至7.2%。与经重述的上年数据相比，减少63 亿元至13亿元，下降11.3%至2.3%。 2. 按中国企业会计准则，本公司预计2025年度实现归属于本公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 472亿元至502亿元。与上年法定披露数据相比，减少129亿元至99亿元，下降21.5%至16.5%。与经重述 的上年数据相比，减少129亿元至99亿元，下降21.5%至16.5%。 一、本年业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日 （二）业绩预告情况 1. 经初步测算，预计2025年度实现中国企业会计准则下归属于本公司股东的净利润为495亿元至545亿 元。与上年法定披露数据相比，减少92 ...