Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a 6-month target price [1] Core Views - FY24 revenue is expected to reach approximately RMB 3.3 billion, a 43% YoY increase, while adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 577 million, up 56% YoY [1] - Financial performance improvement is driven by steady growth in the number of customers for comprehensive education services and a significant increase in product sales revenue through online campus mall operations and supply chain integration [1] Business Expansion - Tianli has signed a new high school hosting project in Nanjing, covering an area of approximately 100 mu, with operations expected to commence on September 1, 2026 [1] - The company has entered into a service agreement with a middle school in Quanzhou, Fujian, to provide subject competition course training services [1] - KID STAR, a wholly-owned brand of Tianli, successfully won the bid for the first public-private partnership inclusive childcare project in Huangpu District, Guangzhou [1] Financial Forecasts - FY24-26 revenue forecasts are adjusted to RMB 3.3 billion, RMB 4.6 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit for FY24-26 is projected at RMB 580 million, RMB 800 million, and RMB 1.1 billion respectively [1] - FY24-26 EPS is expected to be RMB 0.27, RMB 0.38, and RMB 0.5 per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 11X, and 8X [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of HKD 4.72, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Tianli International has issued 9.4 million stock options with an exercise price of HKD 4.72, which is higher than the current market price of HKD 4.55, signaling confidence in the company's future growth and market value [1]. - The company is in a rapid growth phase, focusing on talent retention and motivation as key drivers for its development in the education sector [1]. - Recent achievements in academic competitions highlight the effectiveness of Tianli's educational strategies, with multiple schools under its umbrella receiving top awards [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: HKD 4.71 - 6-Month Rating: Buy (maintained) - Target Price: HKD 4.72 [1] Company Performance - The issuance of stock options at a price above the current market price reflects the company's commitment to its future growth and shareholder confidence [1]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 9,964.73 million and a total share capital of 2,115.65 million shares [1]. Competitive Achievements - Tianli's students have excelled in national academic competitions, with over 60 students winning provincial-level first prizes in recent years [1]. - The company has developed a comprehensive training and selection system for top talent, integrating various educational stages to enhance student performance [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of 6 HKD, while the current price is 4.86 HKD [1]. Core Views - The recent partnership between Tianli Education and Beijing No. 4 High School Hohhot Branch is expected to enhance the quality and sustainable development of education services, leveraging AI and big data technologies [1]. - The introduction of the AI Smart Learning Room service aims to address six key educational challenges, including personalized learning and resource optimization [1]. - The company has established a strong presence with nearly 60 schools across 18 provinces, serving over 100,000 students [1]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for FY24-26 is expected to be 3.2 billion RMB, 4.6 billion RMB, and 6.2 billion RMB respectively [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24-26 is forecasted at 590 million RMB, 800 million RMB, and 1.1 billion RMB respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for FY24-26 are estimated at 0.28 RMB, 0.38 RMB, and 0.52 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.9, 11.6, and 8.5 [2].

教育行业的我们的系列研究首先是为什么最近我们一直持续还是在强烈的去看好教育赛道首先给大家做一个简单的汇报从去年以来其实我们在A股相继去撰写 学大的深度的这个系列报告然后在港国就是持续撰写这个呃天地的这个相关的这个报告包括也做了很多交流哈就是说人家我们是非常看好目前第一个是消费行业 呃现在目前具有确定性增长而且现在有比较比较的我觉得优良的这样的这个性质在的是教育板块然后其实在目前来说的话如果说就赛道屏住来说的话我觉得在整个消费行业里面可能有很只有很少的或者说很难有出现类似于说像教育板块这样的这样的就说呃 消费力和消费意愿 教育行业来说的话我们觉得不管是属于消费意愿还是说居民实际上的消费力在这一块的一个留存的话我觉得都还是属于自由刚性的所以我们对于教育行业从去年以来的话持续就是开始进行一个精选客户的推荐那整体的效果应该说还是相对是不错的那教育行业我最我个人觉得就是说第一个它是属于民生的这么一个一个行业其实整体来看的话整个家庭不管说大家担心之前的 什么这个结婚的人口越来越少然后少子化的这么一个倾向但是其实从从这个2011年的这个单独二胎到2016年的全面二胎之后其实整个人口红利在如果说是在这个教育行业的话我觉得还是 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 10, 2024, which is expected to enhance its visibility and trading volume [1]. - The company has shown robust operational performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in student enrollment, reaching approximately 130,000 students [1]. - The company is expanding its management services for schools, having signed contracts for eight managed schools this year, which is anticipated to create a second growth avenue [1]. - Revenue and profit have experienced significant growth, with FY2024H1 revenue reaching 1.645 billion RMB, a 73.8% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 319 million RMB, up 70% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 3.847 million shares at HKD 3.35 per share, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [1]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.315 billion RMB, 4.536 billion RMB, and 6.014 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.97%, 36.8%, and 32.6% respectively [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 544 million RMB, 752 million RMB, and 1.029 billion RMB, with growth rates of 48.9%, 38.1%, and 36.8% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 17X, 12X, and 9X, which are below the average PE ratios of comparable companies [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in student enrollment for the 2024 autumn semester, with a total of approximately 130,000 students, a 30% increase from the previous year. The number of high school students served by the company has increased by 46% to about 54,000 [2][5] - The company has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to enhance its market visibility and investor interest [2] - The company is actively expanding its management services through partnerships, as evidenced by a recent agreement with local government entities for school management services [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Update - The company has successfully completed its enrollment for the 2024 autumn semester, with a significant increase in high school student numbers, indicating strong growth potential in its high school business [2][5] - The management services business is progressing faster than previously anticipated, with a plan to add 30-50 new segments annually, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [12][20] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 31.87 billion, 43.64 billion, and 59.18 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit of 41.7% [20] - The company has also initiated a share buyback program, demonstrating confidence in its future growth prospects [20] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and educational quality, which is crucial for achieving its long-term goals, including a target of 100 students admitted to top universities by 2027 [9][20] - The growth in external market revenues from various business segments, including e-commerce and educational services, is expected to provide significant revenue elasticity [16][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of 6 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent signing of management contracts for two schools in Quzhou and Yunfu, which is expected to enhance the company's educational resources and capabilities, leading to a multi-win situation for the government, students, parents, and institutions [1]. - The company has a strong track record with over 60 schools established across 18 provinces and more than 100,000 students enrolled, showcasing its robust educational management and teaching quality [1]. - The introduction of international high school programs and the successful admission rates of its first graduating class to top universities are seen as significant growth drivers for the company [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: 4.41 HKD - Target Price: 6 HKD - Rating: Buy (maintained) [1]. Basic Data - Total Shares Outstanding: 2,115.65 million shares - Total Market Capitalization: 9,478.13 million HKD - Net Asset Value per Share: 1.16 HKD - Debt-to-Asset Ratio: 74.25% [1]. Financial Projections - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY24-26 are 3.2 billion RMB, 4.6 billion RMB, and 6.2 billion RMB respectively - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY24-26 are 590 million RMB, 800 million RMB, and 1.1 billion RMB respectively - Adjusted EPS for FY24-26 are 0.28 RMB, 0.38 RMB, and 0.52 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14X, 11X, and 8X [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings [3] Core Views - Tianli International Holdings has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, which is expected to enhance its chances of being re-included in the Stock Connect program in September 2024, thereby improving market liquidity [1] - The company has a strong growth momentum in its for-profit high school business, achieving revenue of 2.32 billion yuan in FY23, a year-on-year increase of 161%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 246% year-on-year [1] - The report forecasts net profits for FY24-26 to be 550 million, 810 million, and 1.11 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16X, 11X, and 8X, indicating significant valuation recovery potential [1] Financial Projections - Revenue (in million yuan): FY23: 2303, FY24E: 3455, FY25E: 4584, FY26E: 5997 [2] - Revenue growth rate: FY23: 160%, FY24E: 50%, FY25E: 33%, FY26E: 31% [2] - Net profit (in million yuan): FY23: 334, FY24E: 550, FY25E: 801, FY26E: 1109 [2] - EPS (in yuan): FY23: 0.16, FY24E: 0.26, FY25E: 0.38, FY26E: 0.52 [2] - PE ratios: FY23: 15.97, FY24E: 16.42, FY25E: 11.28, FY26E: 8.15 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][9][10]. Core Views - The company has successfully transformed into a profitable high school service provider, leveraging its reputation and superior teaching resources to attract students, while extending its asset-light model [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of CNY 32.63 billion, CNY 44.93 billion, and CNY 57.35 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 38%, and 28% [9][10][41]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 5.47 billion, CNY 7.09 billion, and CNY 8.88 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 12, and 10 times respectively [3][10][19]. Company Overview: Successful Transformation of a Private Education Leader - The company was a leading K12 private school group that transitioned to focus on profitable high school services after regulatory changes in 2021 [2][3]. - In FY24H1, the company reported revenue of CNY 16.45 billion, a 74% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 2.86 billion, up 66% year-on-year [19][41]. Industry Analysis: Demand Remains Rigid, Policies Gradually Clarified, High School Segment Expanding - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from an 8-9 year demographic dividend, with strong demand for education continuing [24][41]. - The private high school market is projected to grow from CNY 1,434 billion in 2024 to CNY 3,608 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.23% [41][42]. Competitive Advantages: Leading Reputation and Teaching Resources, Asset-Light Model Extending Boundaries - The company boasts a higher-than-average admission rate and strong teaching capabilities, supported by a well-established educational system and diverse training paths [43][44]. - The company currently operates over 50 schools, with more than 33 high school campuses, indicating significant room for capacity utilization improvement [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (1773) for the first time [2]. Core Insights - Tianli International Holdings is a leading K12 private education service provider in China, focusing on the profitable high school business. The company has expanded to 50 schools across 16 provinces since its establishment in 2002, achieving significant revenue growth [2][9]. - The private high school education sector in China has substantial growth potential, driven by favorable policies and demographic trends. The market size for private high schools is projected to exceed 200 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of approximately 7.8% [2][25]. - The company's strong academic performance and brand reputation provide a solid foundation for growth, with significant room for increasing student enrollment in high schools [2][40]. Company Overview - Tianli International Holdings was founded in 2002, initially focusing on K9 education in Sichuan province. The company has received multiple accolades for its educational innovation and quality [9]. - The company transitioned to focus on profitable high school education after the implementation of the new Private Education Promotion Law in 2021, successfully increasing its student enrollment [11][17]. Financial Analysis - In FY23, the company reported revenue of 2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 161%, and a net profit of 334 million, up 246% from the previous year. This performance marks a recovery to 92% of the 2020 profit levels [2][17]. - The company expects continued growth in net profit, projecting figures of 550 million, 810 million, and 1.11 billion for FY24 to FY26, with corresponding PE ratios of 17X, 12X, and 8X [2][3]. Market Potential - The private high school market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the number of students projected to reach 3,127 million by 2029. The penetration rate of private high schools is anticipated to increase from 20% in 2023 to 30% by 2033 [39][32]. - The report highlights that the demand for quality high school education resources will continue to drive the growth of private high schools, despite local fiscal constraints [35][39]. Growth Drivers - The company has a robust growth strategy, including the expansion of its school network and the introduction of various educational services to meet diverse student needs. It plans to add 3-5 new high schools annually [2][40]. - The company has successfully increased its high school enrollment, with a significant rise in the number of students achieving high academic standards, further enhancing its brand reputation [40].