机构：国元国际 研究员：杨义琼 公司2024 年主营收入构成中，多晶硅业务占37.4%，风光电站建设和运营分别占35.9%和11.3%，电气设 备及其他占15.4%。截至2024 年底，公司已实现并网发电的运营电站项目约3.5GW，2024 年确认收入的 光伏及风电建设项目装机约3GW。因此若考虑公司风光电站资产价值，公司价值严重低估。我们更新 公司盈利预测，初步判断2026 年公司将回归正常盈利。 给予"买入"评级，目标价5.66 港元/股 我们给予公司5.66 港元/股目标价，对应2026 年8 倍PE，目标价较现价有32%的涨幅空间，给予"买 入"评级。 2025 年一季度，公司实现收入人民币3,198.89 百万元，营业成本人民币3,006.23 百万元及归属于上市公 司股东的净亏损人民币263.01 百万元。行业周期底部，公司经营亏损，大额资产减值，A 股上市撤回以 及调出港股通等多重利空已经释放。未来在特变电工集团资金支持，以及应收账款保理等积极措施下， 将有力保障公司穿越周期底部。 多晶硅供需改善缓慢，2025 年业绩或将持续承压 硅业分会（截至20250604）数据显示：n 型复投料成交均价为 ...

新特能源（1799.HK） 2025-06-05 星期四 | 研究部 | | --- | | 姓名：杨义琼 | | --- | | SFC：AXU943 | | 电话：0755-21516065 | | Email：yangyq@gyzq.com.hk | 买入 多重利空释放，静待多晶硅供需改善 | 目标价： | 5.66 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现 价： | 4.30 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | 32% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-6-4 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 4.30 | | 总股本（亿股） | 14.3 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 61 | | 净资产（亿元） | 353 | | 总资产（亿元） | 817 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 13.5/3.78 | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.93 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 特变电工股份有限公司 (66.60%) 新疆特变电工集团(6.07%) 上海宁泉资产管理 (3.72%) 相关报告 深度报告-20211119 更新报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 4.30 [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million in Q1 2025, with multiple negative factors already released, including operational losses and significant asset impairments. Support from TBEA Group and proactive measures like accounts receivable factoring are expected to help the company navigate through this challenging period [3][8]. - The supply-demand balance for polysilicon is improving slowly, with 2025 performance likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand. However, the report notes that the downside for polysilicon prices is limited at this stage [4][9]. - The company's value is considered severely underestimated when accounting for its solar and wind power station construction and operational assets. The revenue composition for 2024 shows polysilicon contributing 37.4%, while wind and solar projects contribute 35.9% and 11.3%, respectively [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,752 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 21,213 million in FY2024, and further to RMB 20,518 million in FY2025, reflecting a decrease of 18.1% and 31.0% respectively. A return to growth is anticipated in FY2026 with revenues projected at RMB 21,898 million [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with losses of RMB 3,905 million and RMB 875 million, respectively. A recovery is expected in FY2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,098 million [7][14]. Market Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the average transaction prices for n-type and p-type polysilicon are reported at RMB 37,500 per ton and RMB 31,300 per ton, respectively. The industry is currently operating under a self-discipline framework, with production quotas limiting significant fluctuations in output [4][9]. Asset Valuation - The report emphasizes that the company's operational solar and wind power assets, totaling approximately 3.5 GW, significantly contribute to its overall value, which is not fully reflected in the current market price [5][10].

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 股票代號：1799 年度報告 2024 C M Y CM MY CY CMY K ai17453092488_Xinte Energy AR2024 Cover V03B_CHI 20mm OP.pdf 1 22/4/2025 下午4:07 目錄 | 公司資料 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 釋義 | 4 | | 財務摘要 | 11 | | 董事長致辭 | 13 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 15 | | 董事、監事及高級管理層履歷 | 42 | | 董事會報告 | 48 | | 監事會報告 | 74 | | 企業管治報告 | 76 | | 財務資料 | 100 | 2 新特能源股份有限公司 董事 執行董事 張建新先生 （董事長） 楊曉東先生 （於2024年9月6日獲委任） 呼維軍先生 （於2024年6月18日獲委任） 銀波先生 （於2024年6月17日辭任） 夏進京先生 （於2024年6月18日退任） 孔營女士 （於2024年6月18日獲委任為非執行董事， 於2024年6月27日獲調任為執行董事，於2025年 3月14日辭任） 非執行董事 張新先生 黃 ...

Financial Performance - For the three months ending March 31, 2025, the group achieved operating revenue of RMB 3,198.89 million[3] - The operating cost for the same period was RMB 3,006.23 million, resulting in a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 263.01 million[3] Assets - As of March 31, 2025, the total assets of the group amounted to RMB 82,298.15 million[3]

金融界 2025 年 4 月 18 日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，新特能源股份有限公司申请一项名为"一种 两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液、金属卤化物钙钛矿薄膜钙钛矿太阳电池及其制备方法"的专利，公开号 CN 119836202 A，申请日期为 2025 年 1 月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开一种两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液、金属卤化物钙钛矿薄膜、钙钛矿太阳电池及 其制备方法，其中，所述两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液的制备方法包括：S101，掺杂有巯基噻唑的金属卤 化物前驱体溶液制备步骤：将金属卤化物材料溶解到第一溶剂中，制得金属卤化物前驱体溶液，在金属 卤化物前驱体溶液中加入巯基噻唑材料，并进行加热、搅拌，得到掺杂有巯基噻唑的金属卤化物前驱体 溶液；S102，阳离子卤化物前驱体溶液制备步骤：将阳离子卤化物材料溶解到第二溶剂中，制得阳离 子卤化物前驱体溶液。本发明可以有效降低钙钛矿薄膜中未反应金属卤化物相，同时抑制水分对钙钛矿 薄膜的侵害，从而提高钙钛矿太阳电池的效率等性能。 天眼查资料显示，新特能源股份有限公司，成立于2008年，位于乌鲁木齐市，是一家以从事非金属矿物 制品业为主的企业。企业注册资本143000万人民币。通过天眼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the group's revenue was RMB 21,212.98 million, a decrease of 31.02% compared to the same period last year[4]. - The total loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,079.37 million, compared to a profit of RMB 6,104.68 million in the same period last year[4]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 3,904.88 million, down from a net profit of RMB 4,345.03 million in the previous year[4]. - Basic loss per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 2.73, compared to basic earnings per share of RMB 3.04 in the same period last year[4]. - The company reported a net profit for 2024 was a loss of approximately ¥4.04 billion, compared to a profit of ¥5.12 billion in 2023, representing a significant decline[11]. - The company’s total comprehensive income for 2024 was approximately -¥4.18 billion, a stark contrast to a total of approximately ¥5.12 billion in 2023[13]. - The company reported a significant decline in profitability within the photovoltaic industry due to supply-demand imbalances and cost-price inversions[43]. Assets and Liabilities - The total current assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 28,632.84 million, down from RMB 31,520.39 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - The total non-current assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 53,047.75 million, compared to RMB 54,409.06 million as of December 31, 2023[6]. - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 46,386.86 million, an increase from RMB 44,697.60 million as of December 31, 2023[8]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 32,793.34 million, down from RMB 36,413.04 million as of December 31, 2023[9]. - The total assets of the company are reported at 81,680,586,196.76, with liabilities totaling 46,386,860,952.15[19]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 11,663.08 million, a decrease from RMB 13,501.47 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - The board recommended not to declare a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1,754.58 million, a decrease of RMB 12,616.91 million or 87.79% year-on-year[78]. Revenue Segments - The polysilicon segment generated revenue of RMB 7,750.01 million, down RMB 11,768.12 million or 60.29% from RMB 19,518.13 million year-on-year, attributed to the decline in polysilicon prices[64]. - The wind and photovoltaic power station construction segment reported revenue of RMB 7,457.20 million, an increase of RMB 1,189.16 million or 18.97% from RMB 6,268.05 million, driven by enhanced market development efforts[64]. - The wind and photovoltaic power station operation segment achieved revenue of RMB 2,349.70 million, up RMB 136.70 million or 6.18% from RMB 2,213.00 million, due to increased operational scale and corresponding power generation[64]. - The electrical equipment segment realized revenue of RMB 3,052.97 million, an increase of RMB 959.28 million or 45.82% from RMB 2,093.68 million, mainly due to a significant rise in sales of inverters and SVG equipment[64]. Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs for 2024 were approximately ¥22.86 billion, slightly down from ¥23.31 billion in 2023, indicating a reduction of 1.9%[10]. - The company incurred total costs of RMB 19,851.62 million, a decrease of RMB 782.17 million or 3.79% from RMB 20,633.80 million in the previous year[65]. - Selling expenses increased to RMB 685.61 million, up RMB 117.98 million or 20.78% from the previous year[68]. - Management expenses rose to RMB 1,178.30 million, an increase of RMB 190.59 million or 19.30% year-on-year[69]. - R&D expenses were RMB 367.03 million, up RMB 93.00 million or 33.94% compared to the previous year[70]. Market and Industry Trends - The average price of dense polysilicon dropped from RMB 58,100 per ton at the beginning of January 2024 to RMB 36,500 per ton by the end of December 2024, indicating a significant price decline[49]. - In 2024, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was about 277 GW, a year-on-year increase of approximately 28%[50]. - The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy generation in China reached 1,450 GW by the end of 2024, surpassing that of thermal power for the first time[50]. - The transition to a market-based pricing mechanism for renewable energy starting June 1, 2025, introduces uncertainty in electricity pricing, potentially impacting revenue from power generation[110]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest in a 3GW renewable energy project in 2025-2026 to reduce electricity costs and enhance its green product manufacturing capabilities[119]. - The company is focusing on technological innovations in polysilicon production to reduce costs and improve product quality, increasing the proportion of electronic grade products[57]. - The company aims to enhance its production technology and reduce costs while improving product quality to maintain competitiveness in the polysilicon market[108]. - The company plans to strengthen its team for developing and operating renewable energy resources to control costs and improve revenue from electricity market transactions[111]. Governance and Compliance - The company has adhered to all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code as of December 31, 2024, and will continue to review and enhance its governance practices[122]. - The audit committee has reviewed the annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, and the audited consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with Chinese accounting standards[126].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections [2][7]. - The report highlights strong financial support from the controlling shareholder, which is expected to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting anticipated losses in 2024 but a potential recovery in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024, with a forecasted loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, and a return to profit in 2026 with RMB 1,534 million [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is expected to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below cash costs [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 102 billion [9]. - The target price of HKD 7.66 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 times for 2026, with the power station segment contributing approximately HKD 6.62 per share [7][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.02%, with a 52-week high of HKD 11.66 and a low of HKD 6.30 [6]. - The average trading volume is reported at 3.98 million shares per day, indicating active trading interest [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to reduce production to mitigate losses, with a forecasted output of 10,000 tons in 2025 [7][8].