智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，维持2025年澳门总博彩收入预测，同时上调2026年预测，预 计今明两年总博彩收入分别同比增长9%和5%，恢复至2019年的84%和88%。其中，该行预计今明两年 的中场博彩收入同比增长7%和6%，恢复至2019年的119%和126%;并预计贵宾博彩收入2025年同比增长 19%，2026年同比下降5%，恢复至2019年的29%和28%。 今年第三季，该行预计行业EBITDA达21.08亿美元，同比增长9%，按季增长2%，恢复至2019年同期水 平的91%。期内总博彩收入维持韧性，但由于市场竞争加剧，再投资率上升，拖累EBITDA。 股份方面，该行较看好美高梅中国(02282)及金沙中国(01928)，料两间博企第三季经调整EBITDA分别为 23.52亿港元及5.90亿美元，同比升19%及1%;目标价分别为19.8港元及23.8港元，均予"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 total gaming revenue forecast for Macau while raising the 2026 forecast, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels respectively [1] Industry Summary - The estimated industry EBITDA for Q3 is projected to reach $2.108 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2%, recovering to 91% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are putting pressure on EBITDA [1] Company Summary - CICC is optimistic about MGM China and Sands China, forecasting adjusted EBITDA for Q3 to be HKD 2.352 billion and $590 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19% and 1% [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both receiving an "outperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in Hong Kong's gaming stocks, with significant increases in share prices for major companies such as Melco International Development, Sands China, and Wynn Macau, all rising by 4.6% [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting annual growth of 9% and 5% for the next two years, respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The expected growth in mass gaming revenue is projected at 7% and 6% for the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels, while VIP gaming revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2025 and decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - CICC is particularly optimistic about MGM China and Sands China, forecasting adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter at HKD 2.352 billion and USD 590 million, representing year-on-year increases of 19% and 1%, respectively [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, with both companies rated as "outperforming the industry" [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks have rebounded after a continuous decline, with Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau rising approximately 3%, while Sands China and Melco International Development increased nearly 2%, and MGM China rose about 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, but there was a 3% year-on-year increase compared to the first 5 days of the month [1] - The firm believes that the recent reversal of the positive trend is premature, considering factors such as typhoons and overseas travel, and maintains a favorable year-on-year comparison basis for November through February of the following year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year growth, while remaining optimistic about Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

花旗发表报告，预期澳门娱乐场营运商第三季行业EBITDA按年升约7%，当中，美高梅中国料将录得 13%按年增长。该行相信，美高梅中国EBITDA潜在高于行业的增长可能在公司公布业绩前(10月30日) 转化为正面的股价动力。花旗予其"买入"评级，目标价为19港元，并列入30日正面催化观察名单。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441 points, down 1.73%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.62%, dropping below the 6,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks led the market downturn, with semiconductor stocks also suffering substantial losses [2][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with notable drops including Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 13% and SMIC down over 8% [4][5] - Gold and precious metals stocks also fell sharply, with Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold both dropping over 6% [6] - The gambling sector continued its downward trend, with New World Development down over 8% and Galaxy Entertainment down over 5% [11][12] - Conversely, banking stocks showed resilience, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 6% and China Merchants Bank up over 4% [13][14] - The film and entertainment sector performed well, with Huayi Brothers Media surging nearly 20% [15][16] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks despite the market volatility [17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions may increase market uncertainty, but they remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [19]

Group 1 - UBS report indicates that Macau's average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the past week was 593 million MOP, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and a 46% drop compared to the first five days of the National Day Golden Week, which is weaker than the market expectation of 700 million MOP [1] - The report highlights a significant slowdown in Macau's GGR since the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, despite various events taking place over the past weekend, including the NBA China Games [1] - For the month to date, Macau's average daily GGR is 804 million MOP, down 5% year-on-year, suggesting that the remaining 19 days of the month may see an average daily GGR of 707 million MOP based on market forecasts [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA forecast valuation of 8.5 times for next year, which is 0.8 standard deviations below the two-year average [1] - UBS identifies Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment as the preferred stocks within the industry [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gaming stocks continue to decline, with New World Development down 5.19% to HKD 4.75 [1] - Sands China decreased by 4.2%, trading at HKD 18.23 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment fell by 3.56%, now priced at HKD 36.3 [1] - MGM China dropped by 3.39%, currently at HKD 13.97 [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks continue to decline, with New World Development down 5.19% to HKD 4.75, Sands China down 4.2% to HKD 18.23, Galaxy Entertainment down 3.56% to HKD 36.3, and MGM China down 3.39% to HKD 13.97 [1] - According to a report from Credit Lyonnais, the Macau gaming industry is expected to see a year-on-year EBITDA growth of 10% to USD 2.063 billion in Q3, driven by a 12.5% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) [1] - The report indicates that adjusted profit margins will be under pressure, with a projected quarterly decline of 0.5 percentage points due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] Group 2 - The focus for the market will be on the resilience of gaming revenue post-Golden Week and the reinvestment activities of gaming companies [1] - The firm has revised its EBITDA forecasts for the industry downwards by 1.4% and 0.5% for this year and next year, respectively, expecting a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 7% to USD 8.2 billion this year and an 8% increase to USD 8.8 billion next year [1] - Additionally, the forecasts for gaming revenue have been adjusted upwards by 0.1% and 1.3% for this year and next year, respectively [1]

智通财经APP获悉，博彩股延续近期跌势，截至发稿，新濠国际发展(00200)跌5.19%，报4.75港元；金 沙中国(01928)跌4.2%，报18.23港元；银河娱乐(00027)跌3.56%，报36.3港元；美高梅中国(02282)跌 3.39%，报13.97港元。 消息面上，里昂发布研报称，预期澳门博彩行业今年第三季EBITDA按年增长10%至20.63亿美元，主要 受博彩总收入(GGR)按年升12.5%所带动。不过，经幸运调整利润率将承压，预计按季跌0.5个百分点， 因台风桦加沙导致赌场停运33小时。该行认为，黄金周后博彩总收入的韧性及博企再投资的情况将成为 市场关注焦点。该行将今明年行业EBITDA预测分别下调1.4%及0.5%，预计今年行业EBITDA按年升7% 至82亿美元，明年升8%至88亿美元；同时将今明年博彩总收入预测分别上调0.1%及1.3%。 ...