经济观察网 里昂证券发布研究报告，预测澳门2026年2月博彩总收入将同比增长7.4%，略低于市场预 期。报告基于黄金周旅客数据及实地考察给出行业首选建议。 深圳太子湾美高梅酒店计划于2026年启幕，定位为沉浸式奢华体验项目，毗邻蛇口邮轮母港，旨在强化 粤港澳大湾区布局。该消息于2026年2月22日由文旅深圳报道，可能间接反映公司区域扩张战略。此 外，澳门大学于2026年2月27日公布的招聘讲座信息中提及美高梅参与校园招聘，显示公司人才储备活 动。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股票近期走势 美高梅中国(02282.HK)近一周股价承压，截至2026年2月27日最新收盘价为12.52港元，5日累计跌幅达 7.05%，区间振幅为9.50%。同期，美高梅(MGM.N)在美股表现相对强劲，最新收盘价为37.62美元，5 日累计上涨3.18%，2月26日单日涨幅达5.79%。港股博彩板块近期整体波动，需关注市场情绪变化。 近期事件 机构观点 里昂证券于2026年2月23日发布研究报告，预测澳门2026年2月博彩总收入将同比增长7.4%，略低于市 场预期中位数的10.5%。报告指出，澳门农历新年黄金周前五天 ...

由于农历新年前趋势较预期疲弱，花旗将2月博彩收益预测由200亿元下调至195亿元，按年下跌1%，意 味著本月余下时间的日均博彩收益约为8.67亿元。该行对1月至2月合计的博彩收益预测(撇除今年与去 年农历新年时间不同的因素)现为421亿元，按年增长11%。摩通指出澳门2月赌收好坏参半，微调全月 预测。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | | 00200 | 新濠国际发展 | 4.380 -4.78% | | 00027 | 银河娱乐 | 41.640 -3.79% | | 01928 | 金沙中国有限公 | 17.570 -1.95% | | 01128 | 永利澳门 | 5.770 -1.20% | | 02282 | 美高梅中国 | 12.770 -0.70% | 消息上，瑞银研究报告指，根据其渠道调查显示，春节假期(2月16日至22日)期间，澳门日均赌收约为 7.86亿澳门元，低于市场预测每日约9亿至9.5亿澳门元。 港股濠赌股集体下跌，其中，新濠国际发展跌近5%，银河娱乐跌近4%，金沙中国跌2%，永利澳门、美 高梅中国跟跌。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，更新对澳门博彩股的最新偏好次序。首选为银河娱乐 (00027)，给予"增持"评级; 其次为美高梅中国(02282)，同样获"增持"评级; 金沙中国(01928)与永利澳门 (01128)则紧随其后，两者均获"增持"评级。新濠博亚娱乐(MLCO.US)的评级为"中性"，而新濠国际发展 (00200)及澳博控股(00880)则同被评为减持。该行建议投资者在澳门市场保持选择性，聚焦个别股份的 共识风险及估值水平，而非等待广泛的重估。 鉴于农历新年表现好坏参半，该行微调2月博彩总收益预测至同比持平至增长2%(此前预测增长2%至 5%)。撇除季节性及日历因素后，料2026年首两个月博彩总收益增长12%至13%(此前预测增长13%至 14%)，与该行及市场的行业预测一致。 根据该行的查验，2月首22天澳门博彩总收益为143亿澳门元(下同)，即日均6.5亿元。上周的日均收益， 涵盖农历新年假期的淡静及高峰时段为7.85亿元，低于该行预期的8.5亿元。该行表示，假期开始时表现 呆滞，首4至5天日均收益约4.5亿元，同比录得双位数跌幅。但从第6天起，活动急升，每日博彩总收益 突破12亿元 ...

智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌1.93%，跌521点，报26560点；恒生科技指数跌2.36%。港股早盘成 交1387亿港元。 大模型双雄逆市反弹，智谱(02513)涨超20%；MINIMAX-WP(00100)涨超7%。 建滔系盈喜后继续走高。覆铜板及上游物料量价齐升，带动集团全年业绩增长。建滔积层板(01888)涨 超11%；建滔集团(00148)涨4.5%。 潼关黄金(00340)涨超5%，预计去年溢利同比增长约289%至298%。 博彩股集体走低。春节假期澳门日均赌收逊预期，花旗下调2月赌收预测。美高梅中国(02282)跌4.2%。 内险股全线回落。新华保险(01336)跌超5%，险企Q4净利润或受短期投资波动影响。 猫眼娱乐(01896)跌超7%创九个月新低，今年春节档电影票房偏弱。 东方电气(01072)涨超6%，重燃主机供需硬缺口将长期延续，公司燃气轮机出口有潜在扩张空间。 长飞光纤光缆(06869)涨超5%再创新高，光纤光缆景气度有望持续向上。 中国中免(01880)再跌超9%，三日累跌逾两成，机构称股价已反映海南免税亮眼表现。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，根据该行的查验，2月首22天澳门博彩总收益为143亿澳门元，即日均6.5亿澳门 元。假期尚未结束，未来数天至关重要，此假期后的尾随需求阶段通常是高端玩家加速消费的时候。鉴 于农历新年表现好坏参半，该行微调2月博彩总收益预测为按年持平至增长2%(此前预测增长2%至 5%)。撇除季节性及日历因素后，料2026年首两个月博彩总收益增长12%至13%(此前预测增长13%至 14%)，与该行及市场的行业预测一致。 摩通更新对澳门博彩股的最新偏好次序，首选为银河娱乐，给予"增持"评级；其次为美高梅中国，同样 获"增持"评级；金沙中国与永利澳门则紧随其后，两者均获"增持"评级。新濠博亚娱乐的评级为"中 性"，而新濠国际发展及澳博控股则同被评为"减持"。 ...

每经AI快讯，港股博彩股集体走低，截至发稿，美高梅中国(02282.HK)跌4.06%，报13.01港元；新濠国 际发展(00200.HK)跌4.21%，报4.55港元；金沙中国(01928.HK)跌3.04%，报18.18港元；永利澳门 (01128.HK)跌1.68%，报5.84港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，博彩股集体走低，截至发稿，美高梅中国(02282)跌4.06%，报13.01港元；新濠国际 发展(00200)跌4.21%，报4.55港元；金沙中国(01928)跌3.04%，报18.18港元；永利澳门(01128)跌 1.68%，报5.84港元。 花旗发布研报称，根据行业消息来源，澳门2月首22天的博彩收益总额可能已达约143亿澳门元，虽然农 历新年第四至第六天的博彩收益表现强劲，每日约12亿至13亿元，但该周首四天的贵宾厅赢率显著低于 正常水平。根据行业消息来源，贵宾厅博彩量按月下跌约8%至10%，中场博彩收益按月下跌约10%至 12%。由于农历新年前趋势较预期疲弱，该行将2月博彩收益预测由200亿元下调至195亿元，按年下跌 1%。 瑞银也表示，根据其渠道调查显示，春节假期(2月16日至22日)期间，澳门日均赌收约为7.86亿澳门元， 低于市场预测每日约9亿至9.5亿澳门元。虽然初期需求疲软，但最后三天(20日至22日)的成交额增速加 快，每日达到12亿至13亿澳门元，按年上升约10%至15%，令本月至今的日均赌收约为6.5亿澳门元，但 仍按年下跌约8%，按月下跌约11%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，澳门在内地今年农历新年黄金周档期前五天(2月15日至19日)共接 待77.93万名旅客，按可比基准计算同比增长7.4%。即使假设黄金周剩余时段的旅客量同比持平，旅客 总量仍将达148.6万人次，较政府预测高出6%。 报告指，该行在2月20日实地考察时，赌场大厅人潮多且最低投注额表现稳健。该行预测2月份博彩收入 将同比增长7.4%，市场预期中位数为增长10.5%，意味着2月16日至28日期间日均博彩总收入达9.54亿澳 门元。银河娱乐(00027)与美高梅中国(02282)仍为该行首选。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock price volatility of MGM China (02282.HK) is directly related to the controversy surrounding the increase in licensing and branding fees imposed by its parent company, MGM International (MGM.N) [1] Group 1: Stock Price Movement - On December 29, 2025, Morgan Stanley reported that starting in 2026, MGM China will increase its licensing fee from 1.75% to 3.5% of monthly net revenue, resulting in an additional annual cost of HKD 1.2 billion [1] - Following this announcement, MGM China's stock price plummeted by 17%, closing at HKD 12.91, with a market value loss of approximately HKD 10.2 billion and trading volume surging to HKD 610 million, an increase of 8-9 times compared to usual [1] Group 2: Reasons for Stock Price Fluctuation - The fee increase is based on MGM China's performance improvement, with a projected 1.7 times increase in market share of total gaming revenue by 2025, reaching 16.2%, and a 1.6 times increase in adjusted EBITDAR to USD 1.203 billion [2] - The payment is directed to MGM B&D, a non-listed entity jointly owned by MGM International and Pansy Ho, with Citic Securities acknowledging the rationale behind the adjustment but noting insufficient communication exacerbated negative market sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Morgan Stanley estimates that the increased fees will account for 15.2% of MGM China's EBITDA in 2026, significantly higher than competitors like Sands China (approximately 5%) and Galaxy Entertainment (zero), leading to valuation discounts [2] - Despite MGM China's price-to-earnings ratio being only 11.4 times (compared to Galaxy Entertainment's 17 times), investor sentiment remains cautious due to perceived prioritization of parent company interests [2] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional focus has shifted to dividend policies, with Citic Securities suggesting that increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to over 53% could mitigate the impact of rising costs, which is considered a manageable threshold [4] - In January 2026, Macau's gaming revenue increased by 24% year-on-year to MOP 22.6 billion, with mass market revenue accounting for 70-75%, supporting the industry's fundamental profitability recovery [4] Group 5: Future Developments - The fee controversy highlights issues regarding corporate governance transparency, and further increases in licensing fees or unmet dividend expectations may continue to suppress valuations [5] - The Macau gaming industry faces macro risks such as regulatory policies and intensified competition [5]

Core Insights - MGM China reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with net revenue reaching HKD 9.617 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, recovering to 169% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for MGM China was HKD 2.753 billion, up 29% year-on-year, recovering to 177% of the same period in 2019, primarily driven by the recovery of high-end business [1] - MGM International noted that the licensing and brand fee share charged to MGM China doubled, attributed to an increase in market share for MGM China [1] Institutional Views - Macquarie Securities adjusted MGM China's target price to HKD 21.6 on February 9, maintaining an "Outperform" rating based on Q4 performance and room upgrade plans [2] - CICC maintained an "Outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 16.10, but cautioned that new brand agreements could impact net profit by approximately 14% [2] - JPMorgan included MGM China as a top pick in Hong Kong stocks on February 12, optimistic about the recovery in the high-end market [2] Stock Performance - MGM China's stock experienced significant volatility, rising 4.11% to HKD 13.68 on February 9, but closing at HKD 13.58 on February 13, narrowing the cumulative gain to 3.35% with declining trading volume [3] - MGM International's stock fell 8.94% during the same period, with a single-day drop of 5.97% on February 12, influenced by market sentiment and technical adjustments [3] - The Hong Kong gaming sector saw a slight decline of 0.12%, while the U.S. gaming sector increased by 0.87% [3] Recent Events - MGM launched a National Art Fund project exhibition in Macau on February 5, aimed at enhancing brand cultural image, though the event had limited direct impact on stock prices [4]