Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Macau gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, with a 15% increase in gaming revenue, and an expected EBITDA growth of 16% to $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter [1] - The report anticipates that the revenue shares of Galaxy Entertainment (00027), Sands China (01928), and MGM China (02282) will increase compared to the previous year [1] - Investors are expected to focus on EBITDA profit margins and dividends ahead of the earnings releases [1] Group 2 - The target price for Wynn Macau (01128) has been revised down from HKD 8.4 to HKD 8.2, while the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 49.1 to HKD 49.5 [1] - Both Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China are highlighted as preferred stocks in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China Holdings Limited (02282) experienced a rebound of nearly 5%, with a current price of HKD 12.82 and a trading volume of HKD 110 million following the announcement of a new long-term brand cooperation agreement with MGM International Hotel Group [1] Group 1: Brand Cooperation Agreement - Starting from 2026, MGM China will increase the brand usage fee paid to its parent company from 1.75% to 3.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that the brand usage fee will reach HKD 1.2 billion in 2026, a significant increase from HKD 600 million in 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - Goldman Sachs estimates that the additional royalty fees paid to the parent company will impact EBITDA by approximately 6% to 7% [1] - The earnings forecast for MGM China is expected to be downgraded by about 13% to 14% due to the increased fees [1] - If the company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, this may lead to a reduction in the dividend per share [1] Group 3: Stock Price Reaction - Following the announcement regarding the royalty fees, MGM China's stock price fell by approximately 19% [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent stock price adjustment appears to be somewhat excessive [1]

Group 1 - MGM China (02282) rebounded nearly 5%, trading at HKD 12.82 with a transaction volume of HKD 110 million [1] - A new long-term brand cooperation agreement was reached between MGM International and MGM China, with brand usage fees increasing from 1.75% to 3.5% starting in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that the brand usage fee will reach HKD 1.2 billion in 2026, a significant increase from HKD 600 million in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the additional royalty fees will impact EBITDA by approximately 6% to 7%, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts by about 13% to 14% [1] - Following the announcement of the royalty fee increase, MGM China's stock price fell by approximately 19%, but Goldman Sachs believes the recent stock price adjustment appears excessive [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Macau gaming industry experienced a 15% increase in gaming revenue, leading to an expected year-on-year EBITDA growth of 16% to $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter [1] - EBITDA margins and dividends are highlighted as key focus areas for investors ahead of earnings releases [1] - Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China are identified as the preferred stocks in the industry [1] Group 2 - The target price for Wynn Macau has been lowered from HKD 8.4 to HKD 8.2, while the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 49.1 to HKD 49.5 [1] - Both companies continue to receive a "outperform" rating from the firm [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) rebounded over 3%, indicating a potential overreaction in its recent stock price adjustment according to Goldman Sachs [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - MGM China's stock price increased by 3.02%, reaching HKD 12.61, with a trading volume of HKD 52.6374 million [1] - The stock had previously dropped approximately 19% following the announcement of additional royalty fees to the parent company [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - Goldman Sachs estimates that the additional royalty fees will impact EBITDA by about 6% to 7% [1] - The earnings forecast for MGM China has been revised down by approximately 13% to 14% [1] Group 3: Dividend and Valuation - If the company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, it may lead to a reduction in the per-share dividend [1] - MGM China's valuation has decreased to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating, suggesting that the current price level is attractive, with a target price set at HKD 18.4 [1]

Group 1 - MGM China (02282) rebounded over 3%, currently up 3.02% at HKD 12.61, with a trading volume of HKD 52.6374 million [1] - Goldman Sachs released a report estimating that MGM China will incur an additional royalty fee to its parent company, impacting EBITDA by approximately 6% to 7% and leading to a profit forecast downgrade of about 13% to 14% [1] - Following the announcement of the royalty fee, MGM China's stock price dropped by approximately 19%, with the valuation level now at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on MGM China, suggesting that the recent stock price adjustment appears excessive, with a target price set at HKD 18.4 [1] - If the company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, it may lead to a reduction in the dividend per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs estimates that MGM China will experience an approximately 6% to 7% impact on EBITDA due to additional royalty fees paid to its parent company, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts by about 13% to 14% [1] Financial Impact - The expected reduction in profit forecasts may result in a decrease in the dividend per share if the company maintains a payout ratio of around 50% [1] - Following the announcement regarding the royalty fees, MGM China's stock price fell by approximately 19% [1] Valuation - The current valuation level has dropped to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the industry average of 11 to 12 times [1] - Goldman Sachs considers the current price level attractive and maintains a "buy" rating, suggesting that the recent stock price adjustment appears to be excessive [1] - A target price of HKD 18.4 is set for MGM China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks are under pressure, with significant declines observed in major companies such as New World Development, Sands China, Wynn Macau, and MGM China, following the release of Macau's gaming revenue data for December 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New World Development (00200) fell by 3.31% to HKD 4.09 [1] - Sands China (01928) decreased by 3.16% to HKD 19 [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) dropped by 2.5% to HKD 5.84 [1] - MGM China (02282) declined by 1.84% to HKD 12.28 [1] Group 2: Revenue Insights - Macau's gross gaming revenue for December 2025 was MOP 20.89 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - The total gross gaming revenue for the first 12 months of 2025 reached MOP 247.404 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - Factors driving the revenue performance included the continued rollout of high-end property projects and increased visitor numbers due to various entertainment activities and promotional plans [1] Group 3: Future Projections - CICC forecasts that total gaming revenue for January 2026 will range from MOP 20.2 billion to MOP 21.7 billion, with daily gaming revenue expected to be between MOP 650 million and MOP 700 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% to 19% [1] - However, compared to January 2019, the revenue is projected to decline by 13% to 19% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks are experiencing a downturn, with notable declines in shares such as Melco International Development down nearly 4%, Sands China down 3%, and others like Wynn Macau and Amax Holdings down over 2% [1] - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue for December 2025 reached 20.89 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Cumulative gross gaming revenue for the first 12 months of 2025 in Macau was 247.404 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's research indicated that the December 2025 gaming revenue in Macau was 20.888 billion MOP, averaging approximately 674 million MOP per day, which is a 15% increase year-on-year and about 91% of the levels seen in December 2019 [1] - The reported figures were approximately 5% lower than Citigroup's forecast and about 3% below market expectations [1] - Some institutions noted that while the performance of the Macau gaming industry in Q4 2025 and for the entire year was strong, there has been a profound structural change, leading to a cautious outlook for growth in 2026 [1]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry Performance - Macau's gross gaming revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 20.9 billion MOP, meeting the lower end of market expectations, influenced by lower VIP room win rates in the last one to two weeks [1] - For the full year, gross gaming revenue is expected to rise slightly above 9%, compared to market expectations of 7% to 8% [1] - The number of inbound travelers to Macau from mainland China increased by 22% year-on-year, driven by tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, with total inbound travelers growing by 18% in November [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance and Market Share - The quarterly gross gaming revenue for the industry is projected to rise by 14% year-on-year to 66.1 billion MOP, accelerating from 1% to 13% growth in the first three quarters of the year, returning to 92% of pre-pandemic levels [1] - Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau saw slight increases in market share last month, while Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China are expected to be market share winners in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: MGM China's License Fee Increase - MGM China announced that its license fee will double to 3.5% of net revenue, with an annual cap raised to 18.83 million USD for this year [2] - This new agreement is expected to lead to a 6% to 7% downward adjustment in EBITDA forecasts for the next two fiscal years, and a 13% to 14% reduction in profit forecasts [2] - Consequently, the target price for MGM China has been lowered from 20.1 HKD to 18.4 HKD [2]