Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry Performance - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 15% year-on-year to MOP 20.9 billion, slightly below market expectations [1] - For the full year, GGR is expected to rise by just over 9%, compared to market expectations of 7% to 8% [1] - The growth in inbound travelers from mainland China, particularly due to tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, contributed to an 18% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers in November [1] - The quarterly GGR for the industry rose by 14% year-on-year to MOP 66.1 billion, recovering to 92% of pre-pandemic levels [1] - Market share for Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau slightly increased, while SJM Holdings, Wynn Macau, and Melco Resorts may lose market share [1] Group 2: MGM China Financial Adjustments - MGM China announced a significant increase in its licensing fee to 3.5% of net revenue, with an annual cap raised to USD 18.83 million [2] - This new agreement is expected to lead to a 6% to 7% downward adjustment in EBITDA forecasts for the next two fiscal years, and a 13% to 14% reduction in profit forecasts [2] - Consequently, the target price for MGM China was lowered from HKD 20.1 to HKD 18.4 [2]

公司名稱: 美高梅中國控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02282 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,0 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a narrow range of fluctuations on January 5, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.03%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.09% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Large tech stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Kuaishou surging by over 11%, while other notable stocks like Bilibili and Alibaba also saw gains of over 5% and 2%, respectively. Conversely, stocks like NetEase and Xiaomi fell by over 2% [2][4]. - The biotechnology sector was active, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Kelun-Bothai rising over 7%, and other firms like Fuhong Hanlin and Tigermed increasing by over 6% [7]. - The insurance sector saw strong gains, with China Pacific Insurance up over 6% and New China Life Insurance up over 5%. Analysts highlighted five key trends in the life insurance industry for 2026, including rapid growth in new business and a shift in customer demographics [8]. - The automotive sector faced declines, with Great Wall Motors dropping over 6% and NIO nearly 6%. Despite some brands achieving record sales in 2025, only a few met their annual sales targets [10]. Notable Stock Movements - Kuaishou's stock price reached 73.60 HKD, reflecting an increase of 11.09% with a market cap of 317.91 billion HKD [5]. - Nanjing Panda Electronics surged by nearly 40%, while Micron Brain Science and Brainhole Technology rose by nearly 20% and over 17%, respectively, following news of Neuralink's plans for large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices [6][4]. - The "three oil giants" saw significant declines, with China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation both dropping over 3% due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [9]. Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 18.723 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 9.809 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 8.914 billion HKD [12]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, predicting a 15% to 20% annual increase in the Chinese stock market for 2026 and 2027. Guosen Securities also sees potential in the market driven by a weaker US dollar and improved domestic liquidity in the spring of 2026 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue reached 20.9 billion MOP in December last year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 18% growth, and recovering to 91.5% of the level seen in December 2019 [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The performance of total gaming revenue in December was primarily driven by the continued rollout of new high-end property projects [1] - Various entertainment activities and promotional plans contributed to an increase in visitor numbers [1] - However, the low VIP win rate posed a certain drag on overall revenue [1] Group 2: Future Projections - CICC forecasts that total gaming revenue in January 2026 will reach between 20.2 billion to 21.7 billion MOP, with average daily gaming revenue expected to be between 650 million to 700 million MOP [1] - Year-on-year growth is projected to be between 10% to 19%, but this is expected to be a decline of 13% to 19% compared to January 2019 [1] Group 3: Stock Preferences - CICC's preference ranking for sector stocks remains unchanged, listed in order as MGM China, Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco International Development, Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and SJM Holdings [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks are generally declining, with Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) down by 2.74% to HKD 37.58 [1] - Melco International Development (00200.HK) has decreased by 2.56% to HKD 4.19 [1] - MGM China (02282.HK) is down by 2.38% to HKD 12.69 [1] - Sands China (01928.HK) has fallen by 1.8% to HKD 19.62 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau are experiencing a decline, with major companies like Galaxy Entertainment, Melco International Development, MGM China, and Sands China all reporting losses in their stock prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) decreased by 2.74%, trading at HKD 37.58 [1] - Melco International Development (00200) fell by 2.56%, priced at HKD 4.19 [1] - MGM China (02282) dropped by 2.38%, with a share price of HKD 12.69 [1] - Sands China (01928) saw a decline of 1.8%, trading at HKD 19.62 [1] Group 2: Revenue Data - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue for December 2025 is projected to be MOP 20.89 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - For the first 12 months of 2025, the total gross gaming revenue in Macau is expected to reach MOP 247.404 billion, which is a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Citigroup's research indicates that the December 2025 gaming revenue is approximately MOP 20.88 billion, averaging about MOP 674 million per day, which is a 15% year-on-year growth and about 91% of the levels seen in December 2019 [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - The reported revenue figures are below Citigroup's forecast by approximately 5% and also fall short of market expectations by about 3% [1] - The lower-than-expected revenue is attributed to unusually low win rates in VIP rooms, which are likely to be below 3% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks experienced a collective decline, with New World Development and MGM China down by 3%, Galaxy Entertainment down by 2.85%, and Sands China, Wynn Macau, and SJM Holdings down nearly 2% [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicated that Macau's gaming revenue in December last year was 20.9 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1%, which was below market expectations [1] - Citigroup projected that Macau's gaming revenue in December 2025 would reach 20.888 billion MOP, averaging about 674 million MOP per day, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% and approximately 91% of the December 2019 level [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley expressed a preference for Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, while downgrading MGM China's rating to "in line with the market" due to its significantly underperforming results in December [1] - Citigroup noted that the lower-than-expected revenue was primarily due to abnormally low win rates in VIP rooms, likely below 3% [1] - The report from Citigroup anticipates a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in combined gaming revenue for January and February this year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue in December last year was 20.9 billion MOP, approximately 2.61 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, but a quarterly decline of 1%, which was below market expectations [1] - In the fourth quarter, Macau's gaming revenue reached 66.1 billion MOP, about 8.26 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and a quarterly increase of 5.6% [1] - The report forecasts that Macau's total gaming revenue for 2025 will be 247 billion MOP, around 31 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and reaching 85% of the 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the mass market revenue has already exceeded 120% of the 2019 levels [1] - The enterprise value to EBITDA ratio for Macau gaming stocks is currently at 8.5 times, compared to the 15-year average of 12.8 times, indicating that the sector remains attractive [1] - The report expresses a preference for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928), while downgrading MGM China (02282) to "in line with the market" and maintaining a sell rating on SJM Holdings (00880) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue in December last year was 20.9 billion MOP, approximately 2.61 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, but a quarterly decline of 1%, which was below market expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Macau's gaming revenue for Q4 reached 66.1 billion MOP, about 8.26 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and a quarterly increase of 5.6% [1] - The EBITDA for Q4 is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The total gaming revenue for Macau in 2025 is projected to be 247 billion MOP, around 31 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and reaching 85% of the 2019 levels [1] - The mass market revenue has already exceeded 120% of the 2019 levels [1] Group 3: Valuation and Preferences - The enterprise value to EBITDA ratio for Macau gaming stocks is currently at 8.5 times, compared to the 15-year average of 12.8 times, indicating attractiveness [1] - Morgan Stanley prefers Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928), while downgrading MGM China (02282) to "in line with the market" and maintaining a sell rating on SJM Holdings (00880) [1] - MGM China significantly underperformed in December but may have short-term rebound opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Macau's gaming revenue in December increased by 14.8% year-on-year to MOP 20.89 billion, aligning with the bank's forecast but falling short of market expectations by 3% [1] Group 1: December Gaming Revenue - Macau's gaming revenue for December reached MOP 20.89 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [1] - The average daily gaming revenue for the last ten days of December was MOP 624 million, compared to MOP 698 million for the first 21 days of the month [1] - Despite potential negative investor sentiment regarding the data, the bank remains optimistic that the continued appreciation of the RMB against the USD will support gaming revenue performance [1] Group 2: January and Future Projections - For January, the bank forecasts a year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming revenue of 18% to MOP 21.48 billion, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - The bank maintains its preference for stocks in Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and MGM China (02282) [1] - The bank anticipates that total gaming revenue in Macau will grow by 5% year-on-year by 2026, slightly below the market's expected growth of 5.5%, implying an average daily gaming revenue of MOP 709 million [1]