Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has released a profit forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [1] - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, product optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company plans to increase its store count by 7 in 2024 and optimize 4 existing stores, enhancing its market presence [2] - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 41-43% since 2020, with net profit margins improving to 13.1% and 16.7% in 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 85.91 billion, 136.77 billion, and 179.18 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 170%, 59%, and 31% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.473 billion, 2.506 billion, and 3.426 billion yuan, with growth rates of 254%, 70%, and 37% respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 58, 34, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 8.591 billion yuan in 2024, 13.677 billion yuan in 2025, and 17.918 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 416 million yuan, with forecasts of 1.473 billion yuan in 2024, 2.506 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.426 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.75 yuan in 2024, 14.88 yuan in 2025, and 20.35 yuan in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [1] - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, product optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company plans to launch 161 new products and iterate 167 existing products in 2024, maintaining a high frequency of product updates [2] - The company's direct sales model is expected to contribute to substantial profit elasticity, leading to a net profit forecast that exceeds expectations [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 85.91 billion, 136.77 billion, and 179.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 170%, 59%, and 31% [3] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.473 billion, 2.506 billion, and 3.426 billion yuan, with growth rates of 254%, 70%, and 37% [3] - The company's P/E ratios based on the closing price on February 21 are projected to be 58, 34, and 25 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin has remained stable between 41% and 43% since 2020, with net margins increasing to 13.1% and 16.7% in 2023 and the first half of 2024 [2] - The company plans to increase its store count by 7 in 2024 and optimize 4 existing stores [2] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to improve significantly, reaching 2.343 billion yuan by 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high growth in same-store sales due to strong brand momentum [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with projections of 1.46 to 1.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [6] - The company's expansion strategy includes opening 7 new stores and optimizing 4 existing stores, contributing to revenue growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 1,294.8 million RMB - 2023: 3,180.2 million RMB (growth of 145.6%) - 2024E: 8,907.4 million RMB (growth of 180.1%) - 2025E: 14,780.0 million RMB (growth of 65.9%) - 2026E: 19,342.6 million RMB (growth of 30.9%) [5] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2022: 94.5 million RMB - 2023: 416.3 million RMB (growth of 340.4%) - 2024E: 1,459.8 million RMB (growth of 250.7%) - 2025E: 2,524.5 million RMB (growth of 72.9%) - 2026E: 3,466.3 million RMB (growth of 37.3%) [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023: 3.0 RMB - 2024E: 8.7 RMB - 2025E: 15.0 RMB - 2026E: 20.6 RMB [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence with 38 stores as of February 2025, primarily located in first-tier cities [6] - The company targets high-net-worth consumers, with a focus on premium locations that enhance brand visibility [6] - The pricing strategy includes a fixed-price model, with recent adjustments to increase product margins and brand recognition [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2024, projecting a range of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260%, which exceeds market expectations [1]. - The upward revision of profit forecasts is attributed to sustained strong sales performance, brand momentum, and the opening of new stores, with net profit estimates for 2024-2026 at 1.44 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.24 billion, 13.52 billion, and 17.41 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 190.6%, 46.3%, and 28.8% [6]. Summary by Sections Event - The company announced on February 20 that it expects a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous year [1]. Operational Analysis - The company's growth is driven by expanding brand influence, significant revenue growth from existing stores, product optimization, and the opening of new stores, with a total of 37 direct stores by year-end [7]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The report projects net profits of 1.44 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 51, 34, and 26 [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the same period are 9.24 billion, 13.52 billion, and 17.41 billion yuan, with growth rates of 190.6%, 46.3%, and 28.8% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 236% to 260%. The significant growth is attributed to the brand's continued expansion and high same-store sales growth [7] - In 2024, the company plans to open 7 new stores and optimize 4 existing ones, with a total of 38 stores by February 2025, primarily in first-tier and new first-tier cities. The company is also preparing for its first overseas store [7] - The recent stock incentive plan aims to attract and retain core talent, covering high-performance employees and key positions, which is expected to drive long-term strategic goals [7] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in the ancient gold category, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients. The report anticipates continued brand momentum and overseas expansion, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 165.2%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a 247.43% increase [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 8.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.25 [1][8] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 4.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.75% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit increase of 236% to 260% for 2024, with projected net profits of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the brand's continued expansion and high same-store sales growth [1] - The company plans to open 7 new stores and optimize 4 existing ones in 2024, with a total of 38 stores by February 2025, primarily in first-tier and new first-tier cities [1] - A share incentive plan has been announced to bind the core team and strengthen long-term development momentum, targeting high-performance employees [1] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in the ancient gold category, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients, and is expected to continue its overseas expansion [1] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected to be 8.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.20% [1] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1.446 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 247.43% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 8.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.25 [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 4.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.75% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a share incentive plan to attract and retain core talent, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The overseas store expansion is progressing smoothly, with sales in various domestic locations performing well. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 1.303 billion, 2.302 billion, and 3.230 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 7.74, 13.67, and 19.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 55.2, 31.2, and 22.3 times for the respective years [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.294 billion yuan in 2022 to 7.886 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 148.0%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 17.452 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 38.2% [8]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 95 million yuan in 2022 to 1.303 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 213.0%. By 2026, net profit is expected to be 3.230 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.3% [8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 41.6% from 2024 to 2026, while the net margin is projected to improve from 16.5% in 2024 to 18.5% in 2026 [8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 21.3% in 2024 to 29.4% in 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a share incentive plan to attract and retain core talent, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The overseas store expansion is progressing smoothly, with sales in various domestic locations performing well. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 1.303 billion, 2.302 billion, and 3.230 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 7.74, 13.67, and 19.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 55.2, 31.2, and 22.3 times for the respective years [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.294 billion yuan in 2022 to 17.452 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 145.7%, 148.0%, 60.1%, and 38.2% respectively [8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 95 million yuan in 2022 to 3.230 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.5%, 340.4%, 213.0%, 76.7%, and 40.3% respectively [8]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 41.6%, while the net margin is expected to improve from 7.3% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2026 [8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 10.9% in 2022 to 29.4% in 2026 [8]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 0.69 yuan in 2022 to 19.18 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 619.0 to 22.3 times [8].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·商贸零售 老铺黄金（06181.HK） 公司发布股权激励计划，春节销售旺引领市 场热度 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1294 | 3180 | 7147 | 11848 | 15923 | | 同比(%) | 2.34 | 145.67 | 124.78 | 65.77 | 34.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 94.53 | 416.30 | 1,225.65 | 2,157.31 | 3,030.42 | | 同比(%) | (16.99) | 340.40 | 194.41 | 76.01 | 40.47 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.56 | 2.47 | 7.28 | 12.81 | 18.00 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 751.74 | 170.70 | 57.98 | 32.94 | 23.45 | [Table_Ta ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 饰品 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 16 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 02 | 月 | 日 | 13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 444.00 | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | | | | 470.00/60.95 | | 元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 74,754.81 | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 42,080.04 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 24.57 | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 投资评级： 增持（维持） ——高端古法黄金龙头 旺季销售表现靓丽 投资要点： 源 ...