来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 | 市场数据：2025 年 3 月 | 31 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元）： | | | 729.00 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | | | 798.00/60.950 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | | | 0.95/1.68 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | | | 690.91 | | 总市值（亿港元）： | | | 1,227.39 | 来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 黄金珠宝 老铺黄金（06181.HK） 增持-A(维持) 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 2024 年营收业绩强劲增长，2025 年推动品牌出海 2025 年 4 月 1 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 3 月 31 日，公司披露 2024 年年报，2024 年，公司实现收入 85.06 亿元，同比增长 167.5%，实现归母净利润 14.73 亿元，同比增长 253.9%。公司董事 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, up 253.9% year-on-year. The strong performance is attributed to the brand's rapid expansion and high same-store sales growth [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 6.35 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.07 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 72.6% [7] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 41.2%, with a net profit margin of 17.3%, benefiting from improved cost control and economies of scale [7] - The company is experiencing a dual-channel growth with significant increases in both offline and online sales, with offline revenue reaching 7.45 billion yuan (up 164.3%) and online sales at 1.26 billion yuan (up 192%) [7] - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the ancient gold category in China, with a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory with international expansion [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 8.506 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, and an EPS of 8.75 yuan [1][8] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 3.556 billion yuan, 5.644 billion yuan, and 7.232 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 20, and 16 [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 6.337 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt ratio of 24.57% [6][8]

Summary of Lao Pu Gold Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Lao Pu Gold Co., Ltd. has emerged as one of the most outstanding consumer brands in China, achieving significant growth in 2024 amidst profound industry changes [3][4][5]. Key Financial Performance - Revenue reached 8.51 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 168% [3][5]. - Gross profit was 3.501 billion RMB, up 163% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.2% [3][5]. - Net profit stood at 1.47 billion RMB, reflecting a 253% increase, with a net profit margin of 17.7% [3][5]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 1.2 billion RMB, primarily for inventory replenishment [5]. Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The growth was driven by continuous product optimization, store expansion, and improved single-store efficiency [3][4]. - The company plans to expand into major domestic shopping centers and international markets, including Singapore and Japan, with a target of exceeding 1 billion RMB in sales per store [3][4][6][9]. - Lao Pu Gold maintains a high-end brand positioning, focusing on internationalization and increasing membership from 150,000 to 350,000 [3][4][6]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has created nearly 2,000 original designs and holds numerous patents, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4]. - Future product strategies will focus on optimizing classic designs and introducing new collections, including a series of gold-inlaid products [11][12]. Market Positioning and Competitive Landscape - Lao Pu Gold positions itself against international luxury brands, establishing a unique competitive state in the industry [21]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining high-quality standards and original designs to combat imitation and counterfeiting [22][45]. Customer Experience and Service Quality - The company is implementing measures to ensure consistent service quality across different stores, including performance incentives for employees and strict service standards [16]. - A new high customer management department has been established to enhance the experience for high-value clients [8][18]. Future Outlook and Expansion Plans - The company aims to open eight new stores domestically and internationally, balancing capital expenditure with shareholder returns [36][37]. - Marketing strategies for 2025 will include enhancing brand visibility and expanding global influence through partnerships and flagship stores [40]. Challenges and Risk Management - Lao Pu Gold is aware of potential challenges such as product shortages during peak seasons and is working to restore production capacity to meet demand [38]. - The company has no immediate plans for financing but is prepared to utilize bank credit if necessary to manage inventory and production needs [47]. Conclusion - Lao Pu Gold Co., Ltd. is positioned for continued growth through strategic expansion, product innovation, and a strong focus on brand positioning in the luxury market. The company’s commitment to quality and customer experience will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [31][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 840 HKD [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.506 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of 1.473 billion RMB, up 253.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is experiencing strong growth momentum, with significant increases in both offline and online sales channels, and is expanding its store presence domestically and internationally [1][2]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 41.2%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin improved significantly to 17.3%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 18.08 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 112.56%, and a net profit of 3.518 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 138.79% [5][12]. - The report anticipates continued strong performance, with net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 adjusted upwards by 44% and 40% respectively [4][12]. Sales Performance - The company’s offline store revenue reached 7.45 billion RMB in 2024, a 164.3% increase year-on-year, with same-store sales growth exceeding 120.9% [2][3]. - Online sales surged by 192.2% to 1.055 billion RMB, driven by increased brand recognition [2]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a high-end brand with increasing competitive barriers, leading to a valuation of 37x PE for 2025, resulting in a target price of 840 HKD [4][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 122.739 billion HKD, with a closing price of 729 HKD as of March 31 [7].

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 19,795,210 thousand, a 166.4% increase compared to RMB 3,677,382 thousand in 2023[2] - The company's income for the same period was RMB 8,505,560 thousand, reflecting a growth of 167.5% from RMB 3,179,564 thousand in the previous year[2] - Gross profit reached RMB 3,501,220 thousand, up 162.9% from RMB 1,331,957 thousand in 2023[2] - The profit before tax surged to RMB 1,946,547 thousand, marking a 251.7% increase from RMB 553,469 thousand in the prior year[3] - Net profit for the year was RMB 1,473,106 thousand, a 253.9% rise compared to RMB 416,302 thousand in 2023[3] - The company announced a non-IFRS adjusted net profit of RMB 1,501,732 thousand, which is a 253.4% increase from RMB 424,935 thousand in the previous year[2] - Total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 8,505,560 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 3,179,564 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 167%[11] - Revenue from product sales accounted for RMB 8,504,554 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 3,179,188 thousand in 2023, indicating a growth of about 167%[11] - The company's net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1,473,106,000, a significant increase from RMB 416,302,000 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 253%[27] - The adjusted net profit under non-International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for 2024 was approximately RMB 1,501.7 million, representing a significant increase from RMB 424.9 million in 2023, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.7% compared to 13.4% in the previous year[62] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased significantly to RMB 4,088,192 thousand from RMB 1,684,403 thousand in 2023, indicating strong growth in asset base[4] - The company's cash and cash equivalents rose to RMB 732,650 thousand, up from RMB 69,838 thousand in the previous year[4] - The company’s total equity increased to RMB 3,920,323 thousand from RMB 1,515,416 thousand in 2023, reflecting robust financial health[4] - The total amount of bank loans and other borrowings as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 1,750,000,000, a substantial increase from RMB 127,754,000 in 2023[36] - The asset-liability ratio increased to approximately 38.1% as of December 31, 2024, compared to 29.8% as of December 31, 2023[67] - Interest-bearing bank loans rose significantly to approximately RMB 1,373.5 million as of December 31, 2024, from approximately RMB 127.8 million as of December 31, 2023[68] Inventory and Receivables - The company's total inventory for 2024 reached RMB 4,087,849,000, up from RMB 1,267,932,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of about 222%[28] - Trade receivables increased to RMB 812,001,000 in 2024 from RMB 381,082,000 in 2023, marking a rise of approximately 113%[29] - Trade receivables rose from approximately RMB 376.3 million as of December 31, 2023, to approximately RMB 801.2 million as of December 31, 2024, with a stable turnover period of 25 days in 2024 compared to 28 days in 2023[65] - The company reported a net impairment loss on trade receivables of RMB 6,028,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 3,536,000 in 2023[32] Expenses and Costs - The cost of goods sold for 2024 was RMB 5,004,340 thousand, compared to RMB 1,847,607 thousand in 2023, which is an increase of approximately 171%[17] - Total financial costs rose to RMB 30,434 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 18,182 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of about 67%[16] - Selling and distribution expenses rose by 113.5% to approximately RMB 1,236.7 million in 2024, primarily due to increased rental costs and e-commerce platform service fees[53] - Administrative expenses increased by 62.5% to approximately RMB 272.2 million in 2024, driven by higher employee costs and bank fees related to increased sales[54] - Research and development expenses grew by 78.8% to approximately RMB 19.2 million in 2024, reflecting the company's investment in enhancing product development capabilities[55] - Other net expenses increased by 218.3% to approximately RMB 16.9 million in 2024, mainly due to increased credit impairment and asset disposals related to store optimization[56] Store Expansion and Sales Performance - The company opened 7 new stores and optimized 4 existing stores, contributing to incremental revenue[43] - The average sales performance per store in 2024 was approximately RMB 328 million, ranking first among all jewelry brands in mainland China[44] - The online flagship store achieved total sales of approximately RMB 1,260 million during the 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival[44] - Same-store revenue growth for 2024 exceeded 120.9%[40] - Offline store sales accounted for 87.6% of total revenue in 2024, while online platform sales contributed 12.4%, showing a slight increase in online revenue share[49] - Gold product sales generated approximately RMB 9,787.2 million, representing 99.9% of total revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%[50] Corporate Governance and Management - The company has committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance to protect shareholder interests and enhance corporate value[89] - The board of directors has met once since the company’s listing on June 28, 2024, and plans to hold at least four meetings annually going forward[91] - The audit committee has conducted one meeting since the listing and will continue to meet at least twice a year as per governance guidelines[92] - The company is committed to maintaining transparency and compliance with corporate governance standards as outlined in the listing rules[94] - The management team emphasizes the importance of corporate governance and oversight by the supervisory board[104] Employee and Workforce - As of December 31, 2024, the group employed a total of 1,303 employees, with 1,244 located in mainland China and 59 in Hong Kong and Macau[76] - The employee distribution by function as of December 31, 2024, was as follows: 21% in administration, 44% in sales and marketing, 33% in production, and 2% in research and design[77] - The company encourages a work-life balance culture and provides comprehensive compensation and benefits to its employees[75] Future Plans and Investments - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 6.35 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, amounting to approximately RMB 1,070 million, pending shareholder approval[25] - The company plans to allocate 73.3% (HKD 701.6 million) of the proceeds for expanding the sales network, with a target completion date by December 31, 2027[85] - The company has no significant investments or acquisitions as of December 31, 2024, and no specific plans for major investments or capital assets beyond new store openings[69][70] Miscellaneous - The company has not declared or paid any dividend policy recently but will review its situation periodically to consider adopting one[92] - The company has not engaged in any purchase, sale, or redemption of its listed securities from the listing date to the date of the annual performance announcement[95] - The company confirms that all directors and supervisors have adhered to the standard code of conduct for securities trading since the listing date[94] - The company is registered as a limited company in China since December 5, 2016, and its H shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 25, 2019[100]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company, Laopu Gold, is a new-style luxury brand with a high brand premium, catering to high-net-worth individuals through craftsmanship and cultural identity, while also ensuring value retention. The company has shown significant same-store growth and has ample room for expansion, with a clear growth logic. The company plans to start its international expansion in Southeast Asia, marking the beginning of its second growth curve [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Gold Jewelry Consumption Culture - The global gold jewelry consumption culture is diverse, with varying preferences for demand, purity, style, and cultural significance across different regions. China and India are the largest markets, with a combined consumption of 1,042 tons in 2024, accounting for 56% of global consumption [9][10]. 2. Current Status of Chinese Gold Jewelry Brands Going Abroad - Chinese gold jewelry brands are still in the exploratory phase of international expansion, with Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, and Lao Feng Xiang having a limited number of overseas stores concentrated mainly in Southeast Asia and East Asia [18][19]. 3. Global Market Layout of Leading International Luxury Jewelry Brands - Leading luxury jewelry brands such as Cartier, Tiffany, and Van Cleef & Arpels have significant market shares and store layouts primarily in the US, China, Japan, and South Korea, contributing to over half of their revenue [22][23]. 4. Potential Space for Laopu Gold's International Expansion - Laopu Gold has initiated its international expansion, planning to open flagship stores in Hong Kong and Singapore, with a target of establishing 39 stores across various international cities, including 9 in Southeast Asia and 12 in Japan and South Korea [32][41]. The selection of target cities is based on criteria such as luxury consumption density and cultural affinity for gold [33][36]. 5. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Laopu Gold for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.462 billion, 2.842 billion, and 3.649 billion yuan respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth rates of 251.6%, 94.3%, and 28.4% [6].

Summary of the Conference Call for Laopu Gold Company Overview - Laopu Gold is a player in the gold jewelry retail industry in China, focusing on high-end products that emphasize design and cultural value [3][4]. Key Points User Demographics and Growth Potential - As of the end of 2024, Laopu Gold has recorded 275,000 users, with 93,000 purchasing in 2023. Despite growth, the total remains low, indicating potential for user base expansion [3][4]. - The company has identified a segment of consumers willing to pay a premium for design and culture, suggesting a market opportunity for growth [3][4]. Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold's competitive barriers include not only product uniqueness but also operational systems, market recognition, production capacity, staff training, and store design, making it difficult for new entrants to replicate [5][6]. - The company plans to diversify its product line by expanding categories, design styles, and cultural concepts to enhance brand influence and meet consumer demand [6]. Store Expansion and Sales Potential - By the end of 2024, Laopu Gold operates 37 stores, with potential for significant growth in store numbers and sales per store, projecting domestic sales could reach 5 to 6 times the current base [7][15]. - The company aims to open 46 stores by 2026, with a focus on key cities like Shanghai [15][16]. Profitability and Market Expectations - Market sentiment is optimistic, with projections for 2025 profits potentially reaching 4 billion or higher, driven by strong sales and favorable gold price trends [8][10]. - Laopu Gold's performance has positively influenced the valuations of other consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market, such as Pop Mart and Chow Tai Fook [9][10]. Membership and Customer Engagement - Membership has grown rapidly, with 275,000 members as of mid-2024, but the proportion of high-spending customers remains low. Enhancing the membership system and offering high-value services are seen as key to increasing average spending [11][12]. - The company currently has a simple membership structure, which could be refined to improve customer engagement and retention [11]. Pricing Strategy and Product Launches - In February 2025, Laopu Gold raised prices by up to 10%, slower than the international gold price increase, indicating a strategic approach to pricing amid market conditions [12][13]. - The company introduces over three new products monthly, with a focus on high-margin items, validating its design and aesthetic leadership [12][14]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Laopu Gold's sales in 2024 are expected to reach approximately 300 million per store, with a projected revenue scale of 50 to 60 billion in the domestic market over the next 3 to 5 years, plus additional revenue from overseas markets [24][25]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for gold products, particularly among middle to high-end consumers, as it offers a compelling value proposition in the current economic climate [20][21]. Challenges and Strategic Responses - Fluctuations in gold prices pose a risk, but Laopu Gold employs strategies such as launching higher-margin products and optimizing pricing to mitigate these impacts [21]. - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by focusing on a unique market position that avoids direct competition with established luxury brands [22]. Key Milestones and Investor Considerations - Upcoming milestones include the opening of new stores in key locations and monitoring of stock performance amid market fluctuations. Investors are advised to remain observant of these developments [26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leader in the high-end gold jewelry market, focusing on traditional craftsmanship and setting industry standards. It has shown significant growth, with a projected net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 236% to 260% [6][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as "Old Puh Gold," has evolved from focusing on traditional gold jewelry to becoming a trendsetter in the industry. It launched its first store in 2009 and has since expanded its presence in high-end shopping centers, achieving a market penetration of 80% in China's top ten luxury malls [6][21]. Barriers to Entry - The company has established strong barriers through its unique design capabilities, effective incentive mechanisms, high-quality products, and robust distribution channels. Its average monthly salary for sales personnel increased from 28,700 yuan in 2021 to 38,200 yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 16% [8][37]. The self-built factory in Yueyang has significantly increased production capacity, with a self-production ratio exceeding 59% from 2021 to 2023 [8][44]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40% from 2020 to 2023, with a net profit margin increasing from 5.1% in 2018 to 13.1% in 2023. The projected revenue for 2024 is 86 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.5 billion yuan [9][11]. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 39% in 2024, driven by improvements in net profit margin and asset turnover [9][11]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projections of 86 billion yuan in 2024, 143 billion yuan in 2025, and 180 billion yuan in 2026. The net profit is expected to grow to 32.1 billion yuan by 2026 [9][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end gold jewelry segment, with a focus on traditional craftsmanship. The market for traditional gold jewelry is expected to grow from 157.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 421.4 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a strong growth trajectory [49][51]. The loyal customer base has expanded significantly, with the number of loyal members increasing from 36,500 in 2021 to 275,000 by mid-2024 [53].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is positioned as a leading brand in traditional gold jewelry, experiencing significant growth driven by high-end consumer demand and cultural trends [4][6]. - Laopu Gold's revenue for 2023 reached 3.18 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 145.7%, while net profit surged by 340% to 420 million CNY [4][31]. - The report anticipates net profits of 1.44 billion CNY, 2.72 billion CNY, and 3.66 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 36, and 26 [6]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Gold Brand Development - Laopu Gold has established a unique position in the traditional gold market since its inception in 2009, focusing on high-end gold products and leveraging cultural elements [21][22]. - The company has expanded its market presence by opening stores in high-end shopping districts and enhancing its online sales channels [21]. 2. Growth of Traditional Gold Consumption - The traditional gold market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023, with expectations to reach 421.4 billion CNY by 2028 [4][50]. - The demand for high-end gold products is expected to continue growing, driven by cultural trends and consumer preferences for luxury items [50][55]. 3. Competitive Advantages and Market Position - Laopu Gold's strategy focuses on high-quality craftsmanship and a unique shopping experience, which helps differentiate it from international luxury brands [4][6]. - The company has a strong brand recognition among high-net-worth individuals, contributing to its competitive edge in the high-end jewelry market [4][22]. 4. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines a robust store expansion plan, projecting the number of stores to reach 37, 44, and 50 by the end of 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]. - Laopu Gold aims to enhance its brand influence and penetrate international markets, particularly in regions with significant Chinese populations [4][6].

Summary of Laopu Gold Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Laopu Gold (老铺黄金) - **Industry**: High-end jewelry in China - **Founded**: 2009 - **Store Count**: 36 stores in 27 high-end malls across Greater China - **Market Position**: Positioned as the "Hermès of Chinese gold jewelry" despite its relatively short history [2][11] Key Insights Demand and Growth Potential - **Structural Demand Growth**: The demand for high-end gold jewelry is considered structural, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and rising gold prices [2][3] - **Store Network Expansion**: Laopu Gold's store network is expected to double, with projections to reach 55-60 stores by 2029 [4][12] - **Same-Store Sales Growth**: The company reported over 100% same-store sales growth in 2023 and 2024, significantly outperforming domestic peers [11][12] Brand Positioning and Consumer Insights - **Niche Market Position**: Laopu Gold occupies a favorable position between foreign luxury brands and domestic jewelry brands, appealing to high-income consumers seeking cultural expression through jewelry [3][14] - **Consumer Preferences**: The brand ranks first among 18 major jewelry brands in China based on cultural representation, quality, and value [3][14] Financial Performance and Valuation - **Current Valuation**: The stock is currently valued at 34 times the projected 2025 earnings, which is a significant premium compared to the average P/E of 11 times for domestic jewelry brands [4][13] - **Earnings Growth Forecast**: Expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 48% [3][17] - **Target Price**: The target price is set at HK$555, reflecting an 8% upside from the last closing price of HK$515 [4][8] Risks and Considerations Market Risks - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: The company's performance is highly correlated with gold prices; a decline could shift consumer preference back to weight-based pricing [20][21] - **Increased Competition**: Other traditional brands are intensifying efforts to capture the high-end gold jewelry market, leading to heightened competition [20][21] Strategic Factors - **Lock-Up Period Expiry**: A lock-up period for 13% of shares will expire in June 2025, potentially increasing public float and affecting stock price dynamics [20][21] - **Investor Composition**: A high proportion of retail and southbound investors may lead to volatility due to their focus on short-term trends [20][21] Conclusion Laopu Gold is positioned for significant growth in the high-end jewelry market, supported by strong consumer demand and strategic brand positioning. However, potential risks related to gold price fluctuations and increased competition must be monitored closely. The current valuation reflects optimistic growth expectations, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity in the luxury jewelry sector [4][16][20].