老铺黄金(06181)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨2.12%，报673港元，成交额4.08亿港元。 摩根大通发布研报称，与老铺黄金讨论11月1日实施的新黄金首饰增值税(VAT)政策，新增值税政策将导 致原材料成本上涨约6%，并对集团的毛利率造成3-4个百分点的压力。但管理层认为，考虑到库存储备 和价格调整机制，实际对毛利率的影响可能有限。对2026年前景乐观，增长基础良好，包括平均售价增 长和新店扩张。 花旗则表示，老铺黄金管理层对2026年销售额和毛利率充满信心，预计2025年下半年收入将保持高增 长，并认为2026年的增长主要来自今年的价格调整，这将贡献20-30%增长、新店销售额年化贡献约20% 增长，以及同店销售增长仍有提升空间。管理层承认2025年下半年毛利率将低于上半年，但认为调价后 已回升至40%以上，这一增长将在2026年得到主要体现。 ...

摩根大通发布研报称，与老铺黄金讨论11月1日实施的新黄金首饰增值税(VAT)政策，新增值税政策将导 致原材料成本上涨约6%，并对集团的毛利率造成3-4个百分点的压力。但管理层认为，考虑到库存储备 和价格调整机制，实际对毛利率的影响可能有限。对2026年前景乐观，增长基础良好，包括平均售价增 长和新店扩张。 老铺黄金(06181)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨2.12%，报673港元，成交额4.08亿港元。 花旗则表示，老铺黄金管理层对2026年销售额和毛利率充满信心，预计2025年下半年收入将保持高增 长，并认为2026年的增长主要来自今年的价格调整，这将贡献20-30%增长、新店销售额年化贡献约20% 增长，以及同店销售增长仍有提升空间。管理层承认2025年下半年毛利率将低于上半年，但认为调价后 已回升至40%以上，这一增长将在2026年得到主要体现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have prompted several banks to adjust their gold accumulation services, reflecting a response to market conditions and consumer behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Multiple banks, including China Construction Bank and CITIC Bank, have revised their gold accumulation business rules in response to rising gold prices [2][5]. - China Construction Bank has clarified that its gold accumulation business will be based on a balance of price and volume, allowing for adjustments in transaction quotes according to market conditions [2][3]. - CITIC Bank has increased the minimum investment amount for its gold accumulation plan from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, while maintaining the minimum weight for regular accumulation at 1 gram [5]. Group 2: Gold Jewelry Market Trends - The price of gold jewelry has surged, with some brands exceeding 1300 yuan per gram, leading to a decline in consumer interest in gold jewelry [6][7]. - Data from the China Gold Association indicates that gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 32.50% [7]. - Major jewelry brands, such as Lao Feng Xiang, reported significant declines in revenue and profit due to high gold prices, which have suppressed gold jewelry consumption [7][8]. Group 3: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global demand for gold reached a record high of 1313 tons in the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment demand, including purchases by central banks [8]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409,000 ounces by the end of October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation [8].

来源：@华夏时报微博 所谓"补不到料"是因为上游料商大量停摆。业内人士分析称，以现在的价格交易根本卖不出去，因此不 少黄金料商选择暂停出货，静观市场变化。"现在料行基本不卖料，除非关系特别好的会在大盘基础上 加几块十来块，都是亏钱做人情。" 多位受访黄金商户透露新政影响颇大，其客流和销售呈现大幅下滑。"很多客户不能接受加价，所以一 些守规矩的店干脆不卖了。" 有受访黄金商户表示，整个市场差不多半停摆，大家还是正常上下班，但 是卖完了的话就补不到料了。 新政影响同样传导到了回收端。有黄金回收商向记者透露，近期回收黄金的上游公司变少了，业内某头 部公司也停止了黄金回收业务。"因为只要卖出去就得加税，收过来它自己也消化不了了。"@蓝鲸新闻 【黄金税改冲击水贝：客流锐减 #有头部平台停止黄金回收业务#】#黄金征税后部分上游料商停摆# 黄 金税改新政落地十余天，购金成本应声上涨。作为全国黄金最大集散地的深圳水贝，其市场活跃度明显 降低，几乎进入半停滞状态。水贝以外的黄金交易市场，变化也在发生。 ...

记者丨边万莉 张欣 实习生王子颖 编辑丨杨希 深圳水贝，这个占据全国黄金珠宝交易半壁江山的市场，正经历一场由金价上涨和税收新政引 发的连锁反应。 11月1日，财政部、税务总局发布的《关于黄金有关税收政策公告》（以下简称《公告》）宣 布，明确区分黄金"投资性用途"与"非投资性用途"，其中会员单位购入用于非投资性用途的标 准黄金，税务进项抵扣比例由13%降至6%。这一核心调整直接导致黄金源头采购成本剧增。 此外，《公告》要求于11月1日当日执行。 据本报记者赴深圳水贝了解，经过短暂的跟风调价、定价混乱后， 水贝市场大盘价最终确定 了新的报价，即在国内金价基础之上进行了上浮。 除了水贝黄金市场外，周大福、老凤祥等多家品牌金店也迅速宣布上调金价。从零售商的客流 冷清到批发商的策略调整，再到上游料商的停摆观望，黄金行业全链条正在进入"适应期"。 水贝大盘定价：短暂混乱后终清晰 "一开始大家都懵了，不知道该怎么定价，只能看别人加自己也加。"长期关注水贝市场的行业 人士李先生对记者如是说。 11月1日政策发布恰逢周六，市场暂未即时反应。但11月3日（周一）开市后，因对政策细节不 明确，水贝市场出现跟风调价现象： 部分商家将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold retail market is experiencing a dichotomy, with rising gold prices leading to increased demand for investment gold bars while traditional gold jewelry sales are declining due to high prices and changing consumer behavior [4][12][16]. Gold Price Movement - On November 8, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.28%. Spot gold also saw a daily increase of over 1%, reaching $3997.63 per ounce [1]. - COMEX silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 0.13% [3]. Retail Market Dynamics - Despite rising gold prices, jewelry stores are facing challenges, with many brands, including Chow Tai Fook, closing stores due to poor performance. As of September 30, Chow Tai Fook had 6041 retail points, down from 6644 in March, with a significant reduction in mainland China [6][8]. - In the third quarter, Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales in mainland China and Hong Kong fell by 8.6% and 10.0%, respectively [9]. Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a decline in retail points and same-store sales, while its competitor, Luk Fook, also saw a reduction in store numbers but experienced a revenue increase due to higher average selling prices driven by rising gold prices [10][11]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Chow Tai Fook's revenue decreased by 37.35%, but its overall gross margin improved to 29.74% due to product mix optimization [9]. Impact of Tax Policy - The new gold tax policy implemented on November 1 is expected to further pressure the retail market, with costs for non-investment gold enterprises increasing due to reduced input tax deductions [15][16]. - Following the tax policy, gold prices surged, with Chow Tai Fook's price per gram rising from 1198 to 1265 yuan within a few days [15]. E-commerce Growth - E-commerce has emerged as a growth area for several gold jewelry companies, with Chow Tai Fook and others reporting significant increases in online sales. For instance, Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce revenue grew by 28.72% compared to the previous year [17][19]. - The shift to e-commerce is driven by consumer preference for lower-priced, lightweight gold products, which are more competitive online due to lower processing fees [19].

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy has led to fluctuations in gold prices, impacting consumer behavior and prompting major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook to adjust their pricing strategies in response to increased costs associated with gold procurement and production [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Gold Tax Policy - The new tax policy exempts individuals from value-added tax when selling used items, including gold jewelry, but frequent large-scale sales may be classified as "business sales" by tax authorities [1]. - Chow Tai Fook announced a price adjustment for certain gold products starting November 3, citing additional costs from the new tax policy [1][3]. - Major gold retailers, including Chow Tai Fook, experienced significant price increases, with some brands raising prices by over 5% in a single day [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - Chow Tai Fook reported a 43.7% year-on-year increase in retail value for its priced gold products during the third quarter [3]. - The company emphasizes its focus on product design, service quality, and customer relationships to maintain a reasonable profit margin [3]. - Chow Tai Fook utilizes financial tools to hedge risks and maintains stable gold inventory levels aligned with production and sales needs, rather than solely capitalizing on price increases [3].

Core Insights - The new gold tax regulations issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation are a significant move in shaping the future landscape of the gold market in China over the next two decades [3][4][12]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulations specify that only standard gold traded through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be eligible for tax benefits, while gold not traded through these channels will incur full VAT [4][8]. - The regulations categorize gold into two types: investment gold (e.g., gold bars) and non-investment gold (e.g., jewelry, industrial gold), leading to different tax implications based on usage [9][10]. Market Impact - The new rules aim to eliminate non-compliant trading channels, effectively pushing gold transactions back to official platforms, which may increase costs for individual sellers who cannot provide compliant VAT invoices [8][9]. - The long-term strategy behind these regulations is to enhance China's pricing power in the global gold market, similar to historical precedents where tax policies were used to influence market behavior [12][14]. Investment Considerations - For investors, financial products like paper gold and gold ETFs may offer lower transaction costs and better liquidity compared to physical gold under the new tax regime [13]. - Individuals looking to invest in physical gold should prioritize purchasing through official channels to ensure smoother future transactions and avoid price reductions due to non-compliance with tax regulations [13][14]. Strategic Implications - The tax reform is seen as part of a broader strategy to modernize governance and enhance transparency in the gold market, which could lead to a more standardized and scalable market in China [14][15]. - The changes may also have international repercussions, potentially increasing the influence of the Shanghai gold benchmark price and challenging the traditional dominance of London and New York gold markets [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].