老铺黄金20240808_1_导读 2024年08月09日 00:33 关键词 老铺黄金 珠宝行业 品牌升级 中高端品牌 沪深港通 行业深度 黄金饰品 工艺升级 高净值人群 国产珠宝 毛利率 销售费用率 净利润率 商业模式 古法金 金镶钻 产品序列 品牌高度 渠道端 门店数量 全文摘要 本报告深入探讨了某中高端珠宝品牌（以下简称品牌A）在面对消费市场压力时的发展战略与市场表 现。品牌A通过精确的消费者定位和店铺选址策略，成功实现了产品差异化和品牌升级。该品牌重点优 化了产品线和销售渠道，进而促进了利润的快速增长，这对于整个珠宝行业的品牌化进程具有重要意 义。报告还指出，品牌A未来有可能加入沪深港通，吸引投资者关注。在珠宝行业中，中高端市场的需 求稳定，尤其是黄金饰品方面。自2019年以来，工艺升级显著推动了市场需求的增长。品牌A利用高质 量产品和优质服务，针对高净值人群，实现了对高端市场的有效进入。通过多次关键转型，品牌A确立 了实体加线上多渠道经营策略，并在全国范围内精选位置布置门店，形成独特的商业模式。报告认 为，品牌A凭借其文化内涵、产品质量和差异化战略，在中高端珠宝领域建立了良好的品牌影响力和市 场份 ...

本次电话会议仅服务于长江证券研究所白名单客户未经长江证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对外公布、复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议相关内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担长江证券保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位投资人大家晚上好我是长江证券民售行业的分析师李瑾那今天也很高兴给大家带来老铺黄金的一个最新的深度报告以及我们最新对于整个老铺黄金的一个成长空间的一个专题报告的一个综合汇报 那相信大家可能在过去整个老普黄金在港股IPO的这个过程然后包括最新的这样一个中报的一个业绩前瞻的这个数据其实可以得看到就是在一众消费相对偏沉压放缓的大的背景下其实老普黄金凭借就是清晰的人群定位和商铺选择 结合产品端的差异化的这样一个定位其实是一个算横空出世的一个中高端品牌那么现阶段其实老铺可能未来来看的话在 今年的九月份或者是未来有望逐渐的去进入呼声港通的这个选择成为咱们对A股投资人而言的话就是一个非常值得关注的一个标的那么我们在觉得在现在这个节点上我们去对它进行深入的分析和拆解是显得尤为的必要对那我们整个今天的汇报可能主要是分作两个部分 第一个的话是我们将就是今年年初我们团队首先去写的从老破黄金看珠宝行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in promoting the concept of ancient gold craftsmanship and has established itself as a leader in the industry [3][8] - The company's revenue grew from RMB 1.265 billion in 2021 to RMB 3.180 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 58.6% [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 114 million in 2021 to RMB 416 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 91.0% [3] - The ancient gold jewelry market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [3] Company Overview - The company was founded in 2009 and is the first brand to promote the concept of ancient gold craftsmanship in China [3][8] - The company has a strong R&D team and has developed a comprehensive product portfolio, including ancient gold jewelry, diamond-embedded products, and gold-fired enamel products [3][8] - The company operates 33 self-owned stores as of June 2024, covering 14 cities, mostly in high-end commercial areas [3] Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market in China grew from RMB 13 billion in 2018 to RMB 157.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 64.6% [3] - The market is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the shift in consumer preferences towards younger generations and the upgrading of consumer tastes [3] - The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market in 2023 [3] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong R&D team and a high proportion of self-produced products, with over 50% of products being self-produced since the establishment of the Yueyang factory in 2018 [3] - The company's products are differentiated by their high craftsmanship and cultural significance, with a focus on ancient gold techniques and high-end positioning [3] - The company's self-operated stores are strategically located in high-end commercial areas, targeting high-net-worth individuals [3] - The company has a strong brand influence, being listed as one of the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals in the 2023 Hurun Report [3] Future Prospects - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the ancient gold jewelry market and its strong brand positioning, which attracts high-net-worth customers [3] - The company's high customer loyalty and repeat purchase rates are expected to drive future growth, with customers spending over RMB 1 million annually contributing 15.9% of revenue in 2023, up from 8.5% in 2021 [3] - The company plans to expand its store network, with a focus on high-end commercial areas, and has significant growth potential in terms of both store count and sales per store [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 5.849 billion, RMB 7.285 billion, and RMB 8.563 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 84.0%, 24.5%, and 17.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 1.001 billion, RMB 1.259 billion, and RMB 1.484 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 140.5%, 25.7%, and 17.9% [3] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12x, 10x, and 8x, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for the company, assigning a target price of HKD 103.37 based on a 16.2x PE multiple for FY2024 [2][10] Core Investment Thesis - The company is positioned as a high-end brand with significant brand premium and customer loyalty, driven by strong single-store sales growth and store expansion potential [2] - The company's growth strategy combines product innovation, channel expansion, and brand building, creating a competitive moat [2] - The domestic market offers substantial growth potential through single-store efficiency improvement and store network expansion, while international markets present long-term opportunities [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 7.11 billion in FY2024 to RMB 13.25 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 30.83% [2][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.00 billion in FY2024 to RMB 1.91 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 31.54% [2][6] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 42.5% from FY2024 to FY2026, supported by product mix optimization [6] Product and Brand Strategy - The company focuses on ancient gold craftsmanship and innovative product lines, such as gold-inlaid diamonds, which have driven rapid revenue growth [2][12] - The brand strategy aligns with luxury positioning, emphasizing exclusivity and premium pricing, which enhances brand equity [2][12] - The company's product portfolio includes ancient gold and gold-inlaid jewelry, with gold-inlaid products contributing 56% of total revenue in 2023 [12][38] Channel Expansion - The company operates a fully self-owned store model, with 33 stores in 14 cities as of the IPO filing, primarily located in tier-1 and new tier-1 cities [14][25] - Online sales accounted for 11.4% of total revenue in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% projected from FY2024 to FY2026 [6][14] - The company plans to expand its domestic store network to 60-100 stores, targeting high-end commercial centers, and explore international markets in Asia and beyond [2][25] Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market in China is a high-growth segment, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [54] - The global gold jewelry market, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, offers significant opportunities for Chinese brands, with markets exceeding USD 10 billion in size [59][60] - The shift from "channel-first" to "brand-first" strategies is reshaping the competitive landscape in the gold jewelry industry, with a focus on premium positioning and product innovation [64] Growth Drivers - Domestic growth is driven by single-store efficiency improvement, store network expansion, and increased penetration among high-net-worth individuals [2][5] - International expansion is a long-term growth driver, with the company targeting markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, leveraging its brand and product differentiation [2][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) [1]. Core Insights - Lao Pu Gold is a leading brand in traditional gold jewelry, focusing on high-end positioning and steady expansion. The company achieved a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 416 million yuan in 2023, reflecting significant year-on-year growth of 145.7% and 340.4% respectively [2][3][14]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry in China has reached 518 billion yuan, with traditional gold accounting for 31% of the gold market. The sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% to reach 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [2][30][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Brand in Traditional Gold - Lao Pu Gold was established in 2009 and has opened 33 self-operated stores in high-end urban areas by June 2024. The company has also entered e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD [2][14]. - The company has a unique product offering, being the first to introduce gold inlaid with diamonds, and has contributed to the establishment of industry standards for traditional gold jewelry [2][14]. 2. Cultural Trends and Craft Innovation - The consumption of gold jewelry in China has been driven by cultural trends and investment demand, with traditional gold jewelry gaining popularity among consumers [2][30]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry is expected to grow significantly, with a current market size of 157.3 billion yuan, projected to increase to 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [30][32]. 3. High-End Brand Development - Lao Pu Gold has positioned itself as a high-end brand, with 65% of its products priced between 10,000 to 50,000 yuan. The average selling price for gold products is 1,043 yuan per gram, with a gross margin of 45.8% [3][20]. - The company has a strong customer loyalty program, with 93,100 loyal members contributing 26.7% of total revenue [3][20]. 4. Direct Sales Model and Store Expansion - The company operates a fully direct sales model, managing brand image and service quality effectively. In 2023, online sales reached 360 million yuan, while offline sales totaled 2.82 billion yuan [3][22]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 overseas in the next two years to enhance brand internationalization and market penetration [3][28]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.44 billion, 6.85 billion, and 8.22 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 780 million, 970 million, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively [3][24]. - The report highlights the company's low debt and leverage, indicating a robust return on equity (ROE) of 34.9% in 2023, which is significantly higher than its peers [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [1][20]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is a leading brand in the ancient gold category in China, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients due to its product quality and service [1]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.5 to 6 billion RMB for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 180% to 205% [2]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow substantially, with total revenue expected to reach 5,681.56 million RMB in 2024, representing a 78.69% increase from 2023 [5]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Laopu Gold is expected to be 997.10 million RMB in 2024, 1,248.10 million RMB in 2025, and 1,482.56 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 139.51%, 25.17%, and 18.79% respectively [2][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 2.47 RMB in 2023 to 5.92 RMB in 2024, and further to 8.81 RMB by 2026 [5][18]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 31.22 in 2023 to 13.03 in 2024, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][18]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold operates a fully direct sales model, achieving higher average store revenue compared to traditional jewelry franchise stores, with a coverage rate of 80% in China's top high-end shopping centers [3][10]. - The brand focuses on high-net-worth clients, leveraging its cultural and luxury attributes to enhance its market presence and profitability [10].

浙商证券研究所提醒您一、本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位、具体时点、具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则未经合法授权 严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢 各位深圳的投资人大家晚上好欢迎大家参加我们今天的公开录演从老普黄金看中国黄金珠宝饰品高端化进程那我是智商零售负责人曹秀洁我目前主要覆盖黄金珠宝、医美化妆品、跨境电商等消费板块那也欢迎各位投资者会后跟我们私下联系再进行详细的探讨 那接下来进入正式的分享环节啊首先提到老铺黄金这个品牌有些投资者可能已经听说过并且很有可能是老铺黄金的消费者了那有些可能还比较陌生其实我们生活当中听说过或者是更多消费的品牌是周大福、周大生、老凤祥、策百、中国黄金这一类那这里呢我们先对老铺黄金做一 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting "ancient method gold" in China, holding a market share of 2.0% in the ancient method gold jewelry market and 0.6% in the overall gold jewelry market as of 2023 [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.265 billion to 3.180 billion, a CAGR of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. Gross profit rose from 521 million to 1.332 billion, with a CAGR of 59.8%, and net profit surged from 114 million to 416 million, reflecting a CAGR of 91.0% [1]. - Laopuhuang operates 33 stores across mainland China and Hong Kong, targeting high-end consumers in top luxury shopping centers [20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized for its craftsmanship, inheriting traditional techniques from the Qing Dynasty, including flower wire inlay and gold-silver techniques, which are classified as national intangible cultural heritage [5]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its exclusive use of a fixed-price model for gold jewelry, which positions it as a premium brand despite not being significantly more expensive than competitors when comparing gold weight to price [8][22]. Market Position - The company has successfully captured a growing consumer interest in gold jewelry, particularly as consumers shift from diamond-set luxury items to gold due to rising gold prices and a preference for safer investments [12]. - In the first half of 2024, Laopuhuang's sales surpassed those of four major international luxury jewelry brands in select high-end malls, indicating a strong acceptance among affluent consumers [12]. Future Plans - Laopuhuang plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, over the next two years [20].

感谢大家参加本次电话会议会议即将开始请稍后 感谢大家参加本次电话会议会议即将开始请稍后 感谢大家参加本次电话会议会议即将开始请稍后本次电话会议仅服务于国泰居安证券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰居安证券客户内部学习使用不得外发 并且必须经国泰居安证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰居安证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发均属侵权国泰居安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰居安证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任 市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策大家好欢迎参加国泰军安政权老婆黄金古法金开创移民者打倒世界一流珠宝品牌目前所有参会者均处于精英状态下面有请主持人讲话谢谢 好的各位投资人下午好我是国军社民受团队的苏颖然后非常欢迎大家今天下午参加我们老普黄金公司逻辑书里的这样一个电话会那我们也非常高兴的看到老普其实这个港股的IPO已经通过聆讯 马上要在明天这个港股市场就作为一个IPO的这个上市那最近的话其实市场关注度也非常高那老布黄金的话其实是作为这个黄金珠宝行业里面之地非常优秀的一家公司 那一年前的话我们从产业链包括关注到这个经销赚这个品类的终端非常优秀的这个反馈表现 ...