智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑股权激励费用计入下调思摩尔国际(06969)2025年归母净利润 预测20%至10.5亿元(对应股权激励费用调整后归母净利润同比持平)，考虑HNB烟支规模化出货带动业 绩释放，上调2026年归母净利润预测11%至18.8亿元，当前股价对应2026年47倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评 级，考虑市场风险偏好调整维持目标价23港元不变，对应2026年69倍P/E(对应2026年0.88倍PEG)，有 46%上行空间。 3Q25收入具体看，1)HNB：英美烟草Glo Hilo目前已在日本、波兰进行全面销售，该行认为Glo Hilo口 味还原度、加热速度及品牌形象均处行业第一梯队，近期终端动销节奏整体积极，加热器具率先出货有 望贡献收入;2)雾化电子烟：该行预计欧洲一次性禁令下，公司合作中小品牌差异化合规产品销售积 极，有望带动欧洲业务营收延续快增;美国监管强化下订单有望相对稳健;3)APV：开放式自有品牌全球 份额领先，该行判断3Q25同比持续增长。 股权激励费用分摊影响短期盈利能力，研发投入持续高位 短期看，该行预计欧洲雾化电子烟中小客户订单快增、HNB加热器具前期销售下，公司短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, but faced declining profitability with a net profit of 317 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [1][10] Revenue Performance - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 10.21 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, with overseas markets, particularly Europe and the US, contributing over 97% of revenue [1][4] Business Segments - Smoore International operates two main business segments: enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, both focusing on overseas markets, especially Europe [4] - The enterprise client business generated 2.734 billion yuan in Europe and other countries in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase, accounting for 57.7% of this segment's revenue [4] - The proprietary brand business saw revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in Europe and other countries, a 15.1% increase, contributing 84% of its segment revenue [4][5] Market Strategy - The company shifted its market strategy post-2022, focusing on overseas expansion after facing declines due to pandemic-related supply chain issues and domestic regulatory challenges [2] - The US and China markets showed weaker performance, with a 6.7% decline in the US proprietary brand revenue and only 0.5% revenue contribution from China [5] Research and Development - Smoore International invested heavily in R&D, with total R&D expenditure of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, focusing on electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][8] - The company holds a significant number of patents, with 839 new applications globally, ensuring a competitive edge in the electronic vaporization market [8] Profitability Challenges - The company's profitability is under pressure, with net profit margins declining from 20.67% in 2022 to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - Increased R&D and operational costs have led to a rise in expense ratios, impacting overall profitability despite revenue growth [9] Market Outlook - Analysts have mixed views on Smoore International's future, with some predicting revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales but cautioning about declining net profits due to rising costs [10] - The company's growth potential hinges on regulatory conditions in key markets, with expectations for profitability to improve as overseas markets and new product lines continue to develop [10]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, but faced declining profitability with a net profit of 317 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [1][11] Revenue Performance - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at 10.21 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, with overseas markets, particularly Europe and the US, contributing over 97% of revenue [1][5] Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, net profit has declined for four consecutive years, with a net profit margin dropping to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][10] - The gross margin has also decreased from 43.3% in 2022 to 37.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [10] Business Segments - The company operates two main business segments: enterprise client business and proprietary brand business, both focusing on overseas markets, especially Europe [5][6] - The enterprise client business generated 2.734 billion yuan in Europe and other countries in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase, accounting for 57.7% of this segment's revenue [5] - The proprietary brand business saw revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in Europe and other countries, a 15.1% increase, contributing 84% of its segment revenue [5] Research and Development - Smoore International has invested heavily in R&D, with total R&D expenditure of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, focusing on electronic nicotine delivery systems [7][9] - The company holds a significant number of patents, with 839 new patent applications globally, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [9] Market Outlook - The company has shifted its market strategy post-2022, focusing on overseas expansion to recover from previous declines in revenue [2][11] - Despite challenges in the US and China markets, the company anticipates continued high growth in Europe and other international markets [6][11] Investment Sentiment - Analysts have mixed views on Smoore International, with some predicting revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales but cautioning about rising costs and declining net profit [11] - Others remain optimistic about the company's potential for recovery and growth, particularly in the HNB product line [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights a slight adjustment in the A-share market post-National Day, with the ChiNext index dropping by 3.86% [2] - The central bank's net withdrawal of funds amounted to 426.3 billion yuan after the holiday, indicating a return to liquidity in the market [2] - The report anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter to address potential geopolitical risks and economic targets [2] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a TACO trading phenomenon again, with a significant decrease in the scale of convertible bonds held by insurance institutions [4][32] - The report suggests maintaining a neutral to low position in convertible bonds in the short term while focusing on low-priced bonds with favorable terms [4][32] - The domestic micro-enterprise performance recovery is gaining consensus, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and military electronics for potential growth [4][32] Group 3 - The public REITs market in China has undergone several phases, with the current stage focusing on normalizing issuance and addressing structural differentiation [6][34] - The cash flow discounting method is the primary valuation method for public REITs, with differences in valuation based on the type of underlying assets [6][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and liquidity in influencing the performance of public REITs [6][36] Group 4 - The report on Wuling Motors indicates a steady revenue growth of 2.0% year-on-year, with a significant increase in net profit by 306.2% [19][37] - The company has improved its gross margin to 12.0%, reflecting enhanced product value and cost control [19][39] - Wuling Motors is strategically focusing on new energy and intelligent vehicle layouts, with its joint venture brand showing a 9% increase in sales [19][40]

Macro Strategy - The report identifies three main policy directions for economic stabilization: early use of debt quota, introduction of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, and monetary easing [1][7][8] - It predicts that the economic growth rate for the third quarter will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, with an annual target of around 5.0% achievable if the fourth quarter growth exceeds 4.5% [7][8] - The report suggests that the new round of growth stabilization policies will be moderate, focusing on support rather than strong stimulus [8][9] Public REITs Market - The development of public REITs in China has gone through several stages: exploration (2005-2019), initial formation (2020-2021), innovation (2021-2024), and steady expansion (from July 2024 to present) [1][10] - As of September 2025, there are 75 public REITs with a total issuance of 194.33 billion yuan, indicating a growing market [10] - The report highlights that city investment platforms have played a crucial role in the public REITs market, helping to optimize capital structures and reduce debt through asset securitization [1][10] Company-Specific Insights Smoore International (06969.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan [2][12] - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 27.2% year-on-year, driven by the successful iteration of new products and local marketing efforts [12] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2][12] New China Life Insurance (601336) - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the third quarter, with estimates ranging from 30 billion to 34.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [3][13] - The increase is primarily attributed to improved investment returns and a favorable stock market environment [13] - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 38.7 billion, 40.2 billion, and 41.8 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] Chipone Technology (688049) - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 54.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 112.94% [4][16] - The focus on AI chip development has led to significant market penetration and revenue growth in various audio products [16] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting revenue forecasts slightly for 2025-2027 [4][16] Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) - The company reported a 21.1% year-on-year revenue increase for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 330 million yuan [5][18] - The growth is driven by strong performance in self-owned brands and a stable customer base in overseas markets [18] - The report maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts of 450 million, 550 million, and 650 million yuan for 2025-2027 [5][18] Zhenyu Technology (300953) - The company expects a net profit of 600 million to 620 million yuan for the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 364% to 413% [6][19] - The report highlights the successful expansion into robotics and the development of new products [19] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 600 million, 900 million, and 1.3 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 21.8% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 10.21 billion yuan [8] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) products are gradually being promoted, with positive feedback from customers and plans for expansion into new markets [8] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter regulations in the electronic vaporization market, leading to a recovery in its business [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,168 million yuan, 11,799 million yuan, 13,722 million yuan, 16,166 million yuan, and 18,395 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.04%, 5.64%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be 1,645 million yuan, 1,303 million yuan, 1,331 million yuan, 2,219 million yuan, and 2,893 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -34.47%, -20.78%, 2.11%, 66.75%, and 30.37% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is forecasted to be 0.27 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 15.77 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.18 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.97 [5] - The company has a total share capital of 6,193.04 million shares [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue of 41.97 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 27.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 27.2% increase year-on-year. However, net profit for the same quarter was 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.4% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business saw a significant increase in shipment volumes, contributing to the overall revenue growth. The company is also expanding its self-owned brand business and enhancing localized marketing efforts [2][5]. - The medical aerosol business has made a breakthrough with the submission of an ANDA application for Breo® Ellipta®, which, if approved, could provide a 180-day market exclusivity in the U.S. This product is expected to generate significant sales in the future [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 102.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. Adjusted net profit was 11.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 41.97 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 4.44 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.0% year-on-year increase [1][2]. Business Growth - The company’s HNB and electronic vaporization businesses both experienced growth, with strategic clients successfully launching new products in major global markets [2]. - The GloHilo product line is being introduced in Italy, Poland, and Serbia, aiming to reach 50 million adult consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant contributions from the HNB business starting in 2026, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 revised to 13.92 billion, 20.23 billion, and 27.59 billion yuan respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969), projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times at the current stock price [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with net profit and adjusted net profit (excluding stock incentive expenses) at 809 million and 1.182 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% and an increase of 0.1% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with net profit and adjusted net profit at 317 million and 444 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% and an increase of 4.0% respectively [1][2] Business Segment Insights - The HNB (Heated Not Burn) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth, alongside increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal products in Europe and the US [1] - The vaping business is anticipated to achieve double-digit growth in Q3 2025, benefiting from market shifts in Europe and increased enforcement against illegal products in the US [1] - The company is focusing on the iteration and expansion of its own brand series, with a steady increase in market share, and expects favorable growth in its APV (Advanced Personal Vaporizer) business [1][2] Profitability Outlook - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, down from 11.5% in Q3 2024 [2] - Despite a year-on-year decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated increase in profitability from HNB products as sales volume grows [2] - The company is also increasing R&D investments in medical nebulization, with recent FDA acceptance of a subsidiary's abbreviated new drug application indicating progress in this area [2] Market Expansion and Growth Potential - The expansion of the legal vaping market in Europe and the US is a prevailing trend, with the HNB product glo hilo starting promotions in Poland, indicating potential for global sales growth [2] - The company is positioned as a unique player deeply integrated into the supply chains of both vaping and HNB products, suggesting a clear path for future growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969), projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [1] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with net profit and adjusted net profit (excluding stock incentive costs) at 808 million and 1.182 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% and an increase of 0.1% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with net profit and adjusted net profit at 317 million and 444 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% and an increase of 4.0% respectively [1][2] Business Segments - The HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth [1] - The vaping business is anticipated to achieve double-digit growth in Q3 2025, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S. [1] - The company is focusing on the iteration and expansion of its own brand series, with a steady increase in market share for its OBM (Own Brand Manufacturing) business [1] Profitability Outlook - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, slightly down from 11.5% in Q3 2024 [2] - Despite a decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated increase in HNB business profitability as sales volume grows [2] Market Expansion - The expansion of the legal vaping market in Europe and the U.S. is a significant trend, with the HNB product glo hilo starting promotions in Poland, indicating potential for global sales growth [3] - The company is positioned as a unique player deeply involved in the supply chains of both vaping and HNB products, suggesting a clear path for future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (6969.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on revenue growth and market opportunities [1]. Core Insights - Smoore International reported a record high revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. The total comprehensive income for the period was 785 million yuan, down 25.5% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 4.196 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% and a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from stringent global regulations, particularly in the vaping sector, with steady growth anticipated in the U.S. and high growth in Europe due to the introduction of compliant products [2]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment is gradually contributing to revenue growth, with expectations for increased shipments and market expansion in key regions like Poland and Italy [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was approximately 10.6%, down from 13.0% in Q3 2024, primarily due to changes in product mix affecting gross margins. However, the company is optimizing its expense ratios, which are expected to decline as HNB product sales increase [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024 to 2027, the projected total revenue is as follows: - 2024: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025: 14.610 billion yuan - 2026: 17.669 billion yuan - 2027: 21.253 billion yuan - The expected growth rates year-on-year are 6% for 2024, 24% for 2025, 21% for 2026, and 20% for 2027 [4]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2024: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025: 1.088 billion yuan - 2026: 2.040 billion yuan - 2027: 3.050 billion yuan - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 57.75X for 2024, 83.46X for 2025, 44.52X for 2026, and 29.78X for 2027 [4][6].