Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion yuan. The Q4 revenue was 3.48 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 43.2% to 240 million yuan [1]. - The company's ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) and OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) revenues showed contrasting trends, with ODM revenue declining slightly by 0.3% to 9.32 billion yuan, while OBM revenue increased by 34.0% to 2.48 billion yuan. In H2, ODM and OBM revenues grew by 9.7% and 13.4% respectively [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in its ODM business, particularly in the Chinese market, where revenue increased by 49.6% in H2. However, the European market is facing challenges due to regulations on disposable products [1][2]. - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 36.9%, attributed to changes in product mix and rising labor costs. R&D expenses reached 1.57 billion yuan, representing 13.3% of revenue, as the company increased investment in atomization medical and HNB (Heated Not Burned) products [2]. - The HNB market is expected to expand, with potential growth driven by new product launches and market entry strategies. The company is optimistic about its hilo product line following successful trials in Serbia [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [1]. - Q4 revenue was 3.48 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 43.2% to 240 million yuan [1]. Business Analysis - ODM revenue decreased by 0.3% to 9.32 billion yuan, while OBM revenue increased by 34.0% to 2.48 billion yuan [1]. - The Chinese market showed strong growth in ODM, with H2 revenue up 49.6% [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 36.9% due to product mix changes and increased costs [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.24, 0.40, and 0.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 52, 32, and 22 [3].

思摩尔国际2024年研发开支持续加码 创新成果显著 收益同比增长5.31%至117.99亿元 公告称，加热不燃烧业务是该集团重要的第二条业务增长曲线，2025年是该业务的关键落地阶段。 2025年，该集团支持客户推出的加热不燃烧产品有望在全球更多市场推出。该集团将密切关注用户反 馈，支持客户完成产品优化与迭代。新产品有望自2025年开始逐步为集团贡献更多收入增长机会。同 时，集团在加热不燃烧领域将继续保持研发投入，储备更多的技术和产品解决方案，并积极寻求与其他 行业领先者合作，为第二条增长曲线的落地打下坚实基础。 思摩尔国际(06969)公布2024年业绩，实现收益约117.99亿元，同比增长5.31%;研发开支约15.72亿 元，同比增长约6%;毛利约44.12亿元，同比增长1.64%;净利约13.03亿元，每股基本盈利21.42分，拟派 末期股息每股5港仙。 面向企业客户业务收入约93.24亿元，虽较去年下降约0.3%，但下半年呈现良好恢复趋势，下半年 收入约53.57亿元，较去年增长约9.7%。不同地区业务表现各异，美国市场受FDA监管政策影响，业务 收入下半年实现同比增长;欧洲及其他市场，在监管加强的 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 11,798,662 thousand, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3%[6] - The gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,411,969 thousand, with a gross margin of 37.4%[4] - The company’s net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 1,303,255 thousand, a decrease from RMB 1,645,090 thousand in the previous year[4] - The comprehensive income for the year was approximately RMB 1,416,913 thousand, a decrease of about 9.5% from RMB 1,566,470 thousand in 2023, primarily due to increased sales and R&D expenses[49] - The group reported a segment profit of RMB 1,640,180 thousand for 2024, down from RMB 1,949,597 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 15.9%[113] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 21.42, down from RMB 27.01 in 2023[95] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the proprietary brand business is approximately RMB 2,475,033 thousand, a year-on-year increase of about 34.0%, accounting for about 21.0% of total revenue[16] - Revenue from the enterprise customer business is approximately RMB 9,323,629 thousand, a slight decline of about 0.3%, accounting for about 79.0% of total revenue[16] - In the U.S. market, revenue from enterprise customers is approximately RMB 3,988,170 thousand, a decline of about 2.4%, accounting for about 33.8% of total revenue[21] - Revenue from the Chinese market was approximately RMB 238,751 thousand, representing a year-on-year growth of about 25.1%[24] - The group’s revenue from major customer A was RMB 4,732,568 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 4,582,362 thousand in 2023, contributing over 10% to total revenue[116] Market Position and Share - The company maintained a market share of approximately 13.1% in the global electronic vaporization equipment market for 2024, down from 13.7% in 2023[11] - The company’s proprietary brand "VAPORESSO" has further increased its market share in the open product segment, becoming a leading brand in major global markets[17] - The proprietary brand business in the U.S. market achieved revenue of approximately RMB 424,289 thousand, a year-on-year increase of about 14.0%[17] Research and Development - Research and development expenditure for the review period was approximately RMB 1,572,313 thousand, an increase of about 6.0% from the previous year, accounting for approximately 13.3% of revenue[25] - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in research and development for its heating-not-burning and medical vaporization businesses during the review period[8] - The company plans to enhance its R&D focus on heated tobacco products and aerosol medical products as key directions for 2025[44] Operational Efficiency - The company achieved significant progress in production operations, enhancing manufacturing competitiveness through collaboration across teams and optimizing production processes[35] - The group aims to enhance manufacturing competitiveness and optimize production processes, with a focus on resource integration and cost reduction[47] Expenses and Costs - Distribution and selling expenses increased by approximately 74.7% to about RMB 919,552 thousand, representing about 7.8% of revenue, driven by increased marketing investments in global operations and new product launches in the Chinese market[60] - Administrative expenses rose by approximately 5.4% to about RMB 914,109 thousand, maintaining a stable percentage of about 7.7% of revenue[63] - R&D expenses grew by approximately 6.0% to about RMB 1,572,313 thousand, accounting for about 13.3% of revenue, with significant investments in the fields of atomization medical and heated non-combustible products[66] Future Outlook - The global electronic vaporization product market is projected to reach approximately $91.42 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7.4% from 2024 to 2029[37] - The global heated tobacco market is expected to reach around $66.86 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 10.1% from 2024 to 2029[39] - The company is committed to building a leading global vapor technology platform, focusing on electronic vaporization, heated non-combustible products, and medical vaporization solutions[36] Corporate Governance - The company maintained a governance structure that complies with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's corporate governance code, with a board comprising eight directors, including three independent non-executive directors[143] - The board of directors is committed to ensuring transparency and accountability to all shareholders, with regular reviews of governance effectiveness[145] Shareholder Communication - The company has established a shareholder communication policy to ensure effective communication with shareholders[152] - The company encourages shareholders to express their opinions and suggestions during the annual general meeting[150]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | --- | | 投资评级 无评级 | | 上次评级 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 砥砺前行，长期主义铸造价值成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 12 日 [Table_S 事件：近日公司旗下科技护肤品牌 ummary] MOYAL 岚至取得二类医疗器械证书，并 于 2 月 26 日在广西贺州高新区产业开发区举行"无创雾化高端医疗器械项 目投产仪式"，公司副总裁、美容事业部总裁吴俊兰表示新工厂将全面承接 MOYAL 岚至 TPS 技术平台的医疗器械生产与制造。公司预计 25 年产值有 望达 1.5 亿元，3 年 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | --- | | 投资评级 无评级 | | 上次评级 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 IQOS 有望发力美国地区，美国或将成为核心 HNB 市场。2024 年 IQOS 已 解决专利纠纷、重返美国，目前仍处于消费者教育阶段，我们预计新品 ILUMA 在 25H2 通过 PMTA 后，菲莫将正式发力美国市场。2023 年美国总 烟民人数为 4340 万人（卷烟+雾化），根据我们测算，美国消费能力强、新 型烟草教育程度高，假设美国 2030 年 HNB 渗透率达到 30%（HNB 烟民/ 卷烟+雾化+HNB），每年烟弹消耗量有望增长至 800-900 亿支（2023 年全 球烟弹消耗量为 1600 亿支），或将成为比肩日本的核心市场。 英美新品放量可期，全球化进展加速。公司 24 年底已在塞尔维亚推出全新 产品 ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | --- | | 投资评级 无评级 | | 上次评级 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 相关研究 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 砥砺前行，长期主义铸造价值成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 12 日 [Table_S 事件：近日公司旗下科技护肤品牌 ummary] MOYAL 岚至取得二类医疗器械证书，并 于 2 月 26 日在广西贺州高新区产业开发区举行"无创雾化高端医疗器械项 目投产仪式"，公司副总裁、美容事业部总裁吴俊兰表示新工厂将全面承接 MOYAL 岚至 TPS 技术平台的医疗器械生产与制造。公司预计 25 年产值有 望达 1.5 亿元，3 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in compliant vaping technology, with significant growth potential in the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) segment [3]. Market Overview - The global new tobacco market is estimated at approximately $76.9 billion in 2023, with HNB and e-cigarettes accounting for 45% and 28% of the market, respectively [4][14]. - The penetration rate of new tobacco products among smokers is only 8.1%, indicating substantial room for growth [15]. Regional Analysis - **United States**: The largest market for new tobacco, valued at $24.8 billion in 2023, with HNB market potential expected to increase following patent resolutions between major tobacco companies [23][27]. - **Europe**: The market reached $31 billion in 2023, with a high acceptance of HNB products, particularly in Eastern Europe [5]. - **Japan and South Korea**: Dominant markets for HNB, with respective market sizes of $11.7 billion and $2.6 billion in 2023, showing strong growth trends [5]. Competitive Landscape - Major tobacco companies like PMI and BAT are leading the transition to new tobacco products, with significant market shares in the HNB segment [6]. - The company holds approximately 13.7% of the global e-vapor device market, with a focus on expanding its HNB product offerings [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $1.304 billion, $1.578 billion, and $2.040 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.26, and 0.33 [8]. - The estimated market value for the company is expected to reach between HKD 714 billion and HKD 1,020 billion by 2025, with a PE ratio ranging from 45 to 65 [8]. Growth Drivers - The growth is driven by the industry's beta benefits and the anticipated regulatory clarity, alongside the commercialization of HNB products for major clients [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in atomization technology, primarily developing a diversified business model focused on B2B operations. In 2023, the company reported revenue of 111.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, with B2B and B2C business accounting for 83% and 17% of revenue, respectively [2][22]. - The tightening regulations on electronic cigarettes are expected to benefit compliant leaders in the industry, while the potential for heated non-combustion (HNB) products remains significant [3][43]. - The company is deeply integrated with major clients, and its HNB segment is anticipated to create a second growth curve, supported by high R&D investment and the launch of new products [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2009, has evolved from an OEM for electronic cigarettes to a diversified business model, including heated non-combustion and special-purpose atomization products. It holds a 13.7% market share in the global electronic atomization device market as of 2023 [17][19]. - The business model is primarily B2B, with a significant focus on ODM manufacturing for electronic atomization products and components [20][22]. Industry Analysis - The global electronic cigarette market is projected to grow, with a market size of 21.2 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The market is expected to continue expanding, driven by regulatory changes and increased consumer awareness [43][44]. - The HNB market is also on the rise, with a global market size of 34.5 billion USD in 2023, showing a 12% increase from the previous year. The CAGR for the HNB market is expected to be 14% from 2023 to 2028 [58][59]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 13.2 billion, 16.6 billion, and 22.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 60, 48, and 36 times [1][8]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue from B2B operations, with a reported income of 93.2 billion yuan in 2023, down 13% year-on-year. However, the B2C segment has shown growth, with a 26% increase in revenue [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening regulations in the electronic cigarette market and the growth potential of its HNB business. The initial coverage suggests an "Accumulate" rating based on these factors [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International with a target price of HK$16.50, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of HK$13.98 [1][10][16]. Core Insights - Smoore International is expected to face short-term performance pressure due to competition from illegal products, particularly in the U.S. market, which may lead to a slowdown in revenue growth [7][10]. - The launch of the GloHilo product by British American Tobacco, which is exclusively supplied by Smoore, could provide a long-term growth opportunity for the company [6][10]. - The revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to the anticipated prolonged negative impact from illegal e-cigarette products and increased price competition [13][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a revised target price of HK$16.50, up from HK$11.80, reflecting a 40% increase [2]. Financial Adjustments - The target price has been increased to HK$16.50 from HK$11.80, while the 2024E EPS has been reduced by 20% to RMB 0.23, and the 2025E EPS has been cut by 33% to RMB 0.24 [2][14]. - Revenue estimates for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to RMB 11,761 million and RMB 12,857 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12% and 15% from previous estimates [5][14]. Market Performance - Smoore's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a 52-week high of HK$15.26 and a low of HK$4.89, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Growth Opportunities - The GloHilo product launch is seen as a potential driver for long-term growth, especially if it successfully penetrates larger markets like Japan and the EU [6][8]. - The global HNB market is projected to be valued at USD 17 billion in 2024, with Smoore's involvement in this segment expected to enhance its profitability significantly [16]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 18.6%, with revenue growth expected to slow to 5.3% [7][13]. - The report anticipates that HNB products will not significantly contribute to Smoore's revenue until 2026, with modest growth expected in the interim [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of the HNB market, with IQOS leading the market with over 70% share, indicating strong performance and industry growth [1] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth for IQOS sales in 2025, with a projected increase of 10-12% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 5%, 12%, and 17% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts showing a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [6] Summary by Sections HNB Market Growth - The HNB penetration rate in Japan is expected to reach 47.1% by December 2024, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The U.S. HNB market is set to open, with IQOS devices expected to be sold directly in Austin, Texas starting March 2025 [1] - The gross margin for smoke-free products increased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 66.6% in Q4 2024, outperforming traditional tobacco products [1] User Growth and Market Expansion - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million in 2024, with a conversion rate maintained at 72% [3] - The smoke-free product revenue for 2024 is projected at $14.7 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase [3] - The smoke-free product series is now available in 95 markets, with an estimated 38.6 million users [2] New Product Performance - The new oral nicotine product ZYN saw a 24.6% increase in sales, reaching 17.4 billion units in 2024 [4] - ZYN's shipments in the U.S. grew significantly, with Q4 2024 shipments reaching 165 million cans, a 42% increase [4] - The international market for ZYN is expanding rapidly, with shipments outside the U.S. exceeding 100% growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $11.78 billion, $13.16 billion, and $15.44 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.33 billion, $1.70 billion, and $2.24 billion [6][13] - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 59.71X, 46.47X, and 35.42X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]