Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 11,798.662 million, representing a 5.3% increase from RMB 11,203.250 million in 2023[10] - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 4,411.969 million, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down from 38.7% in 2023[10] - Net profit for 2024 decreased to RMB 1,303.255 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 11.0%, compared to 14.7% in 2023[10] - The company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 11,798.66 million in the review period, representing a year-on-year growth of about 5.3%[27] - The group's total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was approximately RMB 11,798,662 thousand, representing a 5.3% increase from RMB 11,203,250 thousand in 2023[72] - The gross profit for the review period was approximately RMB 4,411,969 thousand, a 1.6% increase from RMB 4,340,911 thousand in 2023, with a gross margin decrease from 38.7% to 37.4%[73] Asset Management - The company reported a significant increase in non-current assets, reaching RMB 10,807.950 million in 2024, up from RMB 5,937.532 million in 2023[10] - Current assets decreased to RMB 16,846.428 million in 2024 from RMB 19,570.752 million in 2023, while current liabilities increased to RMB 5,259.365 million[10] - The asset-liability ratio increased to 20.8% in 2024 from 16.1% in 2023, indicating a higher proportion of liabilities relative to total assets[12] - As of December 31, 2024, the group's current assets net value was approximately RMB 11,587,063 thousand, down from RMB 16,004,419 thousand in 2023[86] - The group's current ratio as of December 31, 2024, was approximately 320.3%, a decrease from 548.8% in 2023[87] - The asset-liability ratio as of December 31, 2024, was approximately 26.2%, compared to 19.1% in 2023[90] Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company plans to declare a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per ordinary share for the year ended December 31, 2024[11] - The board has proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2024, subject to approval at the upcoming annual general meeting[166] - The company's distributable reserves as of December 31, 2024, amount to RMB 7,047.7 million[161] Business Segments and Growth - The electronic vaporization segment showed positive growth due to increased regulatory enforcement against non-compliant products, leading to a shift in consumer demand towards compliant products[14] - The company successfully launched new business lines in heated non-combustible products and aerosol medical and beauty products, contributing to overall business diversification[14] - In the heating non-combustion product sector, the company plans to support strategic clients in launching products in more markets, focusing on user feedback for continuous product iteration[20] - The company successfully launched the "Lan Zhi" brand in the aerosol beauty business, which has gained recognition through online promotions and offline channels, achieving impressive sales during major marketing events[16] - The company anticipates that 2025 will be a critical year for the second growth curve, with plans to expand into harm reduction products and strengthen its competitive edge in core businesses[21] - The group launched multiple new product series in overseas markets across various segments, including electronic vaporization and medical vaporization, enhancing R&D efficiency through scientific classification management[29] Research and Development - The company is committed to increasing R&D investment, particularly in aerosol medical and heating non-combustible products, which have shown satisfactory breakthroughs during the review period[16] - Research and development expenditure for the period was approximately RMB 1,572,313 thousand, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year, accounting for about 13.3% of total revenue[48] - R&D expenditure for electronic nicotine delivery systems was RMB 1,034,668 thousand, accounting for 65.8% of total R&D spending, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year[52] - R&D expenditure for medical and beauty aerosol products increased by 41.3% year-on-year to RMB 392,180 thousand, accounting for 24.9% of total R&D spending[52] - The company filed a total of 1,558 new patent applications globally during the period, including 893 invention patents, bringing the cumulative total to 9,253 patents[51] Market and Regulatory Environment - The group achieved a revenue contribution of approximately 37.4% from the U.S. market during the review period, with significant legal and regulatory developments impacting the electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) products[33] - The FDA has taken action on over 99% of PMTA submissions, with ongoing legal challenges affecting several ENDS products[33] - The UK has not introduced any significant laws or regulations related to electronic cigarettes and vaping devices as of December 31, 2024, contributing 25.5% to revenue[34] - In the EU, countries with flavor restrictions include Finland, Estonia, Hungary, and others, with a revenue contribution of 7.9%[34] - Hong Kong has proposed a complete ban on alternative smoking products, which is expected to impact 32.8% of revenue by December 31, 2024[36] - The mainland China market's revenue contribution is approximately 2.2%, with new regulations being implemented in July-August 2024[36] Corporate Governance - The board consists of eight directors, including three independent non-executive directors, ensuring sufficient checks and balances within the board[109] - The company has adopted the corporate governance code and complied with all provisions except for the separation of the roles of chairman and CEO, which are held by the same individual[108] - The independent non-executive directors reviewed and confirmed that the related party transactions were conducted on fair and reasonable terms[105] - The company has established a clear process for the appointment and re-election of directors, with terms set at three years[115] - The company has implemented an anti-corruption policy to prevent bribery and corruption within its operations[130] Employee and Gender Diversity - Overall employee gender ratio is 48.14% female (8,939) and 51.86% male (9,631) across the company[124] - The company has appointed one female executive director and one female non-executive director as of December 31, 2024[122] - The board consists of 25% female members (2 out of 8) and 75% male members (6 out of 8) as of December 31, 2024[124] - The company emphasizes gender diversity in recruitment and selection processes at all levels[122] Risk Management - The company’s risk management and internal control systems aim to manage operational efficiency and ensure compliance with relevant laws and regulations[142] - The Board has confirmed the effectiveness of the risk management and internal control systems as of December 31, 2024[144] - The company's overall risk management process is integrated into daily operations, with management responsible for identifying and responding to risks[144] Stock Options and Incentives - The company has granted a total of 129,524,700 stock options, with 98,158,700 options currently exercisable[193] - The share incentive plan aims to recognize and reward contributions from eligible participants to the group's growth and development, while also attracting suitable personnel[195] - The maximum number of shares that can be held under the plan at any time is capped at 2% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares)[198] - The total number of shares issued to each eligible participant under the plan within any 12-month period cannot exceed 1% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares)[200]

证券研究报告 思摩尔国际 (6969 HK) 港股通 看好雾化主业修复，HNB 成长可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 08 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 风险提示：行业政策收紧，需求不及预期，新业务不及预期，关税加征风险。 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 11,203 | 11,799 | 12,958 | 14,939 | 17,124 | | +/-% | (7.75) | 5.31 | 9.82 | 15.29 | 14.63 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 1,645 | 1,303 | 1,323 | 2,140 | 2,762 | | +/-% | (34.47) | (20.78) | 1.54 | 61.71 | 29.08 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 0.27 | 0.21 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well, driven by stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and market expansion [2][4]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the expected EPS is 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 46, 23, and 17 times [4]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 19,489 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.45% [7]. - The net profit is expected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,451 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well. The revenue is anticipated to grow due to stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and the expansion of the compliant market [2]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the overall profit impact is seen as temporary [3]. - The company is rationally addressing tariff impacts on its HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business, with a focus on markets in Japan and Europe, while the growth logic for HNB remains unchanged [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 11,168 million CNY, with a projected growth rate of -8.04% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.79%, 23.78%, and 20.45% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,645 million CNY, with a significant decline of 34.47% expected in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [7]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 23, and 17 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenditure is impacting short-term profitability [1][2] - The company is expected to face challenges with disposable products due to tightening regulations in various countries, but there is potential for growth in the APV and HNB segments [2][3] - The U.S. market is crucial for the company, with expectations for the launch of new HNB products, which could enhance market share and revenue [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.799 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6%, and net profit expected to be 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.411 billion yuan, 2.337 billion yuan, and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4][5] Market and Product Insights - The company is positioned as a key supplier for British American Tobacco, which is expanding its HNB product offerings in various markets, including the U.S. [3] - The anticipated launch of the IQOS ILUMA in the U.S. is expected to further pressure traditional cigarette sales, leading to increased focus on HNB product development [3] - The company is expected to benefit from its unique production capabilities and technology, which may help mitigate tariff pressures in the U.S. market [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenses are impacting short-term profitability [1] - The company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a stable revenue stream for Q1, with profit pressure primarily due to increased expenses and a higher tax rate compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Market Environment - The report highlights regulatory changes affecting disposable vaping products in Belgium, France, and the UK, which are expected to pressure the company's performance in this segment [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in its APV and refillable products overseas, with a trend of year-on-year improvement anticipated [2] HNB Product Development - The company is positioned to benefit from the expansion of HNB products in the US market, with expectations for the launch of new products by PMI [3] - The report notes that the US market is crucial for the company, with projected revenue and adjusted operating profit contributions of 44% and 54%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 1.41 billion yuan in 2025, 2.34 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4] - Total revenue is expected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 17.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% [5] - The report outlines a decrease in net profit for 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with growth rates of 8% in 2025 and 66% in 2026 [5][7] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 27.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.85 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including operating income, net profit, and earnings per share (EPS), with EPS expected to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The expansion pace of the HNB (Heated Not Burned) market in the US and UK is becoming clearer, with the company positioned as a core supplier benefiting from high growth rates [4] - The HNB industry has a long supply chain with few companies capable of integrated design and R&D, leading to high Know-How barriers and increasing patent restrictions [1][2] - The report anticipates significant growth in HNB product sales, particularly in the US market, with projections indicating a potential increase in HNB penetration to 20% by 2028 [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized for its strong strategic positioning and substantial profitability in its other business segments, leading in R&D investment [2] Market Expansion - The report highlights the urgency for British American Tobacco to enhance its HNB product offerings, particularly with the anticipated launch of GLO HILO in 2024 [3][4] - The US market is crucial for British American Tobacco, contributing 44% of revenue and 54% of adjusted operating profit [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 11,799 million, 12,011 million, 13,922 million, and 17,063 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 2%, 16%, and 23% [7] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 1,303 million, 1,411 million, 2,337 million, and 3,032 million, with corresponding growth rates of -21%, 8%, 66%, and 30% [7][10] - The report projects EPS (Earnings Per Share) to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.49 in 2027 [7][10]

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 思摩尔国际（06969.HK）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 自有品牌增长亮眼，HNB 成长可期 公司公布 2024 年业绩公告。2024 年公司实现收入 117.99 亿元，同比+5.6%； 归母净利润为 13.03 亿元，同比-20.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,799 | 12,944 | 14,876 | 16,832 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,303 | 1,514 | 2,029 | 2,455 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.8% | 16.2% | 34.0% | 21.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.40 | | 市盈率(倍) | 59.2 | 50.9 | 38.0 | 31.4 | | 市净率(倍) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.59, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 11.799 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.303 billion, a decrease of 20.80% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line as a second growth curve, with positive trial results for the new product glo Hilo [4][10]. - The company has increased its R&D investment to CNY 1.572 billion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 41.30%, indicating a commitment to diversifying into nebulization technology and medical applications [4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's self-owned brand revenue grew by 34.00% to CNY 2.475 billion, accounting for 21.00% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from enterprise clients was CNY 9.324 billion, a slight decrease of 0.30%, but showed a recovery trend with a 9.70% increase in H2 2024 [3]. - The company achieved revenue of CNY 6.762 billion in H2 2024, reflecting an 11.22% year-on-year increase [1]. Market Performance - The company experienced a strong recovery in the European and American markets, with revenues of CNY 4.24 billion and CNY 20.24 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14.00% and 37.20% [2]. - In H2 2024, the revenue from the U.S. and European markets was CNY 2.27 billion and CNY 10.95 billion, with growth rates of 8.83% and 11.61% respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.39%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [9]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 was 11.04%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, with H2 2024 adjusted net profit margin at 9.17%, a decline of 6.18 percentage points [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 12.823 billion, CNY 14.475 billion, and CNY 16.878 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.68%, 12.88%, and 16.60% respectively [10]. - Net profit projections for the same period are CNY 1.476 billion, CNY 1.809 billion, and CNY 2.242 billion, with growth rates of 13.31%, 22.49%, and 23.94% respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion in 2024, representing a slight increase of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to HKD 1.3 billion. The second half of 2024 showed improved performance with revenue of HKD 6.76 billion, up 11.2%, and net profit of HKD 620 million, down 33.2% [1][2] - The company's proprietary brand business, including Vaporesso and MOYAL, saw significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 2.48 billion, a 34.0% increase, and its revenue share rising from 16.5% to 21.0% [1] - The company is focusing on developing a heating not burning (HNB) product line, which is expected to become a second growth curve, with positive consumer feedback from its recent launch in Serbia [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion, a 5.3% increase, and a net profit of HKD 1.3 billion, a decrease of 20.8%. The second half of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 11.2% to HKD 6.76 billion, while net profit decreased by 33.2% to HKD 620 million [1][2] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per share, with an annual dividend yield of 40.2% [1] Business Segments - The ODM business saw a slight decline in revenue to HKD 9.32 billion, with a first half decrease of 12.3% and a second half increase of 10.7%. The European market contributed HKD 5.1 billion, while the US market generated HKD 3.99 billion [2] - The proprietary brand segment showed strong growth, particularly in Europe and other markets, with revenue of HKD 2.02 billion, a 37.2% increase, and in the US, revenue reached HKD 420 million, a 14.0% increase [1] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the HNB product line, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025. The focus on creating a comprehensive vaporization technology platform is anticipated to drive long-term growth [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of HKD 1.52 billion, HKD 2.00 billion, and HKD 2.52 billion, reflecting growth rates of 16.3%, 32.0%, and 26.0% respectively [3][4]