Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue reached a historical high of 4.197 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 317 million RMB, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding equity incentive expenses, the net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in various business segments, including OEM and proprietary brands, with significant growth in HNB (Heated Not Burned) and vaping products. The company is actively supporting strategic customers in global market expansion, leading to a substantial increase in product shipments [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing an upward trend, with traditional vaping businesses expected to benefit from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. The new Glo Hilo product has received positive feedback, and the company is assisting clients in expanding into key markets [9][10]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027, with expected revenues of 11.168 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 19.137 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [3][10]. - The gross profit is projected to grow from 4.334 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.845 billion RMB in 2027, while net profit is expected to recover from 1.645 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.541 billion RMB in 2027 [3][10]. - The report also provides a valuation based on a PE ratio of 110.0X for 2025, resulting in a target price of 19.87 HKD, equivalent to approximately 18.28 RMB [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that Smoore International (06969) has shown an upward trend in industry prosperity in Q3, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for the company, with expected net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%; excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Business Growth - The OEM and proprietary brand revenues both experienced growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with significant increases in HNB and vaping businesses [2] - In the HNB segment, the company supported strategic customers in global market expansion, resulting in a substantial increase in product shipments [2] - In the vaping segment, the company assisted more clients in launching new compliant electronic vaping products due to increased regulatory scrutiny in major global markets [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The traditional vaping business is expected to benefit from changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential increase in market share under compliant operations [3] - The new Glo Hilo product in the HNB segment has received positive feedback, with the company aiding clients in nationwide product promotion in Japan by September 2025 and plans to expand into more core markets in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company has developed multiple technology platforms to address various user pain points, and collaborative efforts to accelerate commercialization are ongoing, indicating a clear growth path for the business [3]

Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco (BAT) has launched a new high-end heated product line, glo Hilo, in Japan, with strong sales momentum observed since its pilot launch in June 2025, indicating potential for accelerated revenue growth in heated tobacco products [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The glo Hilo product line, including glo Hilo, glo Hilo Plus, and compatible consumables, was initially tested in Miyagi Prefecture and has been successfully rolled out nationwide in Japan as of September 1, 2025 [1] - The company aims to position glo Hilo as a "top-tier platform for heated tobacco," targeting to replace some IQOS users and expand its market share in Europe, particularly in Poland, Italy, and Eastern Europe [1][3] - A flagship store for glo products will open in Ginza, Tokyo, on October 18, 2025, further promoting the product line across Japan [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Financial Projections - Japan is identified as the largest single market for heated non-combustible (HNB) products, and the positive sales outlook for glo Hilo is expected to influence global market dynamics [2] - BAT has set a long-term goal to reach 50 million adult consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and to transition to a smoke-free business model by 2035, with Poland being a critical market for this expansion [2] - The company anticipates that the global promotion of Hilo will contribute to a 3%-5% increase in group revenue by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery in the paper industry and light consumer goods [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic demand, with a year-on-year decrease in transaction area narrowing to -22.46% as of October 17. The external sales are boosted by strong performances on platforms like Amazon, with notable growth in GMV for several companies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for regulatory enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S., which may benefit established brands. The HNB product line is expanding globally, with significant market entry planned in Italy [10][19]. - The paper and packaging industries are experiencing price adjustments due to supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for price increases in corrugated and boxboard paper. The metal packaging sector is also anticipated to see improvements in profitability due to upcoming price hikes [11][12]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are stabilizing, with transaction areas showing a reduced decline. External sales are recovering, particularly in the U.S. market, aided by a favorable exchange rate and potential interest rate cuts [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are expected to have high earnings growth and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - Regulatory support for legal brands is strengthening in the U.S., with 80% of voters favoring stricter enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes. The HNB product line is set to expand in major markets [10][19]. - Recommended companies include 思摩尔国际 and 中烟香港, which are positioned well for growth [10]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand. The metal packaging sector is also poised for profitability improvements with anticipated price hikes [11][12]. - Key players include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The light consumer goods sector is gearing up for a busy Q4 with the Double Eleven shopping festival, focusing on brand penetration and product innovation [15][16]. - The trendy toy market is seeing strong performance from leading brands, with new product launches and collaborations enhancing market presence [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International, projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Smoore International: CNY 14.175 billion in 2025, CNY 16.689 billion in 2026, and CNY 19.495 billion in 2027, representing year-on-year growth of +20.14%, +17.73%, and +16.81% respectively [1] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders: CNY 1.08 billion in 2025, CNY 1.934 billion in 2026, and CNY 2.652 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth of +17.15%, +79.13%, and +37.10% respectively [1] Market Dynamics - British American Tobacco is increasing resources and marketing efforts for Glo Hilo, with positive sales feedback in Japan and early deployment in several European countries, indicating potential for future growth [1] - The vaping market is expected to recover due to regulatory pressures on illicit tobacco, which bodes well for core supplier Smoore International [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Smoore International: - 2025: 14.175 billion - 2026: 16.689 billion - 2027: 19.495 billion - Year-on-year growth: +20.14%, +17.73%, +16.81% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders: - 2025: 1.08 billion - 2026: 1.934 billion - 2027: 2.652 billion - Year-on-year growth: +17.15%, +79.13%, +37.10% [1] Market Dynamics - British American Tobacco is increasing resources and marketing efforts for Glo Hilo, with positive sales feedback in Japan and early deployment in some European countries [1] - The regulatory crackdown on illegal vaping products is expected to lead to a recovery in the vaping market, which bodes well for core supplier Smoore International [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 4.2 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, achieving a historical high for quarterly revenue, while profit was 317 million HKD, down 16.4% [1] - The company announced a new stock incentive plan, granting stock options and reward shares to employees, indicating ongoing commitment to employee motivation [1] - HNB product shipments have significantly increased, with positive feedback on the Glo Hilo product in Japan, and plans for expansion into European markets [2] - The ODM business has shown growth due to increased compliance orders, while the self-branded products have successfully iterated flagship offerings and improved local marketing efforts [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the regulatory crackdown on illegal products in the vaping industry, leading to a recovery in the market [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 141.75 billion HKD, 166.89 billion HKD, and 194.95 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.14%, 17.73%, and 16.81% [4][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.80 billion HKD, 19.34 billion HKD, and 26.52 billion HKD for the same years, with growth rates of -17.15%, 79.13%, and 37.10% [4][11] - The current market capitalization is approximately 96.43 billion HKD, with a closing price of 15.57 HKD per share [5]

Core Insights - Smoore International reported its Q1-3 2025 financial data, with revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 1.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [1] - Q3 revenue showed rapid growth at 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5%, while net profit was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year due to a decline in gross margin from product mix changes [1] Business Performance - The vaping electronic business is recovering, with self-owned brands achieving steady growth due to successful product iterations and localized marketing [1] - The OEM business is experiencing rapid growth, aided by increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S. and the introduction of new products in Europe following a temporary ban [1] HNB Product Development - The company launched the HNB product glo Hilo in Japan in September, receiving positive feedback, and plans to enter Poland and Italy soon [2] - The company is developing an HNB technology platform to promote multi-technology research and development, actively expanding new products and customers [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Smoore International is positioned as a global leader in vaping technology, benefiting from stricter regulations in Europe and the U.S. and the exclusive partnership with British American Tobacco for HNB products [2] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 67, 40, and 31 times, respectively, and maintains a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in Q3 2025 aligns with expectations, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit due to stock incentive expenses and ongoing high R&D investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% - Adjusted net profit after stock incentive expenses was 1.18 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% [1]. Development Trends - Glo Hilo is expanding steadily in Japan and Poland, with positive sales momentum in the European vaping market - The company expects to see growth in revenue from HNB products and compliant vaping products in Europe, despite regulatory challenges in the U.S. [1][2]. Short-term Profitability and R&D - Short-term profitability may be slightly pressured due to increased orders from small clients in Europe and initial sales of HNB heating devices - The company is increasing R&D investments in vaping medical and HNB new businesses, which may impact net profit in Q3 2025 [2]. Long-term Growth Prospects - The company anticipates accelerated global expansion of Glo Hilo by 2026, which is expected to drive revenue growth - The vaping medical segment is expected to commercialize, opening up long-term growth opportunities [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 has been reduced by 20% to 1.05 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been increased by 11% to 1.88 billion yuan - The current stock price corresponds to a 47 times P/E ratio for 2026, with a target price maintaining a 69 times P/E ratio, indicating a potential upside of 46% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q1-Q3 2025, but net profit showed a decline, indicating mixed financial performance amidst growth in specific business segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit was 809 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% and a year-on-year increase of 27.2%. Net profit for the same period was 317 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1]. Business Segments - The heated tobacco and electronic vaporization businesses both experienced growth in Q3 2025, contributing to the record quarterly revenue [1]. - The company supported strategic clients in launching new heated tobacco products globally, leading to a significant increase in product shipments [1]. - The company also enhanced its localized operations and marketing efforts, which helped expand its consumer base and market share [1]. Product Development - BAT announced the launch of the gloHilo product line in Japan, Italy, Poland, and Serbia, aiming to reach 50 million adult consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 [2]. - The gloHiloPlus is the first two-piece heated product from the glo brand, featuring advanced heating technology and a mobile app for personalized settings [2]. Regulatory Developments - TranspireBio, a subsidiary of the company, successfully submitted an ANDA for Breo Ellipta, which, if approved, would grant the company a 180-day market exclusivity in the U.S. [2]. - Breo Ellipta is projected to generate sales of 2.02 billion USD in the U.S. in 2024, highlighting the potential impact of this regulatory milestone on the company's market position [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see significant contributions from its HNB business starting in 2026, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.392 billion, 2.023 billion, and 2.759 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its technological and market leadership advantages [3].