Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the electronic cigarette export tax rebate policy is expected to significantly impact the electronic cigarette manufacturing industry, leading to a new round of industry reshuffling. Although the short-term performance of Smoore International (06969) may be affected, its long-term position is likely to be further solidified [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Smoore International's stock rebounded over 6%, currently trading at 11.44 HKD with a transaction volume of 294 million HKD [1] - The company is closely tied to leading brands, which may help it navigate the short-term challenges posed by the tax rebate policy [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The adjustment in tax rebates is anticipated to help the industry gradually emerge from the price war [1] - International tobacco giants are entering mainstream markets with HNB products, which may boost sales of new tobacco products in new regions [1] - There is potential for increased profitability in regions like the UK and Europe, particularly with the shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products [1] - Strengthened enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations in the U.S. is expected to create significant recovery space for compliant product shares [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in Smoore International's stock price, which increased by over 6% and is currently trading at 11.44 HKD with a transaction volume of 294 million HKD [1] - The recent adjustment in the electronic cigarette export tax rebate policy is expected to have a substantial impact on the electronic cigarette manufacturing industry, leading to a new round of industry reshuffling [1] - Although Smoore's short-term performance may be affected by the tax rebate policy changes, its long-term position is anticipated to strengthen due to its deep ties with leading brands [1] Group 2 - The reduction in tax rebate incentives is expected to help the industry gradually emerge from the price war [1] - With the entry of international tobacco giants' HNB products into mainstream markets, the sales of the company's new tobacco products in new regions are likely to contribute to incremental growth [1] - The enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations, particularly in the United States, is expected to create significant recovery opportunities for compliant product market share [1]

Group 1 - The company conducted significant share buybacks on December 11 and 12, totaling nearly 200 million HKD, reflecting management's long-term confidence in the company's value and future growth [1] - On December 11, the company repurchased 8.14 million shares at an average price of 12.26 HKD per share, costing 99.77 million HKD, and on December 12, it repurchased 7.99 million shares at an average price of 12.48 HKD per share, costing 99.76 million HKD [1] - The proportion of shares held by the trustee increased from 1.2853% to 1.5457% following these buybacks [1] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached approximately 4.197 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, driven by the successful launch of heated non-combustible (HNB) products in major global markets [1] - The company benefited from stricter global regulations leading to the elimination of non-compliant products, positioning itself as a compliant leader in the industry [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was approximately 444 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with effective cost control as the growth rate of expenses was lower than that of revenue [1] Group 3 - The company is recognized as a global leader in electronic vaporization, focusing on R&D and technological leadership [2] - Future revenue projections for the company are 14.108 billion RMB, 16.717 billion RMB, and 19.867 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.043 billion RMB, 1.931 billion RMB, and 2.726 billion RMB, with growth rates of -19.93%, 85.12%, and 41.14% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [2] Core Insights - Real estate data remains under pressure, but national subsidies and the expansion of the trade-in policy are driving a recovery in consumption. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China reached 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount reached 8393.68 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The number of transactions in 30 major cities increased by 50% year-on-year, with a transaction area growth of 38% [1][11] - The implementation of a 62.5 billion yuan national subsidy on January 1 has led to a rapid qualification exhaustion, and the trade-in policy now includes smart and elderly-friendly home products. Major companies like Mousse, Oppein, and Youban are exploring strategic development and transformation in the competitive stock market [1][69] Summary by Sections Industry Key Data Tracking - **Home Furnishing**: Real estate data remains under pressure, but the return of national subsidies is expected to boost downstream demand recovery [7] - **Packaging**: Stable downstream demand and continuous optimization of the competitive landscape [52] Industry News and Dynamics - **Home Furnishing**: Policies are driving a recovery in consumption, with leading home furnishing companies pushing for strategic transformation [69] - **Packaging**: Anti-involution measures are improving corporate difficulties, and digitalization is driving industry upgrades [70] Light Industry Performance in Capital Markets - **Industry Yield Performance**: From December 2025 to January 2026, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.66%, while the light industry manufacturing sector increased by 5.10%, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [73] - **Industry Valuation**: The valuation of the sector has slightly increased, with the PE-TTM for packaging printing, home furnishing, paper, and entertainment products at 41.74, 29.68, 32.38, and 48.91 respectively [78] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, it is recommended to focus on Oppein and Songlin Technology; for the packaging sector, attention should be on Aorijin, Yutong Technology, and Xianggang Technology; in the toy sector, focus on Pop Mart; in the paper sector, consider Jiulong Paper and Hengfeng Paper; additionally, the expansion of HNB is expected to drive high prosperity in the tobacco-related industry chain, recommending attention to China Tobacco Hong Kong [81]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International is maintained as "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.80 [6][4]. Core Insights - Smoore International has demonstrated strong confidence in its long-term value through significant share buybacks, totaling nearly HKD 200 million over two days [2]. - The company reported record revenue of approximately RMB 4.197 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.2%, driven by the successful launch of new heated not-burn (HNB) products in major global markets [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from stricter global regulations on non-compliant products, enhancing its status as a compliant leader in the industry [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Smoore International from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 141.08 billion, RMB 167.17 billion, and RMB 198.67 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively [4]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 10.43 billion, RMB 19.31 billion, and RMB 27.26 billion, with growth rates of -19.93%, 85.12%, and 41.14% respectively [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 63.16x, 34.12x, and 24.17x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Smoore International (06969) maintains a "Buy" investment rating due to its leadership in the global electronic vaporization market, ongoing R&D efforts, and strong management confidence reflected in recent share buybacks [1] - The company has conducted significant share repurchases, spending nearly HKD 200 million over two days, which indicates long-term confidence from management regarding the company's value and future business growth [1] - The projected revenue for Smoore International from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be RMB 14.108 billion, RMB 16.717 billion, and RMB 19.867 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively [1] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, the company achieved record revenue of approximately RMB 4.197 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, primarily driven by the successful launch of heated not-burn (HNB) products by strategic clients in major global markets [2] - The tightening of global regulations has accelerated the exit of non-compliant products, allowing the company, as a compliant leader, to fully benefit from policy advantages, resulting in steady growth in its electronic vaporization business [2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was approximately RMB 444 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with excellent cost control as the growth rate of expenses was lower than that of revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guotou Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969), highlighting its leadership in the global electronic vaporization market and its commitment to R&D and technology innovation. The company is expected to benefit from increased regulatory scrutiny on non-compliant products and ongoing business expansion, with significant share buybacks reflecting long-term confidence in its growth potential [1][8]. Group 1: Share Buybacks - The company executed two significant share buybacks on December 11 and 12, spending nearly HKD 200 million. On December 11, it repurchased 8.14 million shares at an average price of HKD 12.26 per share, costing HKD 99.77 million. On December 12, it repurchased 7.99 million shares at an average price of HKD 12.48 per share, costing HKD 99.76 million. The proportion of shares held by the trustee increased from 1.2853% to 1.5457%, indicating management's long-term confidence in the company's value and future growth [2][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of approximately RMB 4.197 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.2%. This strong performance was primarily driven by the successful launch of heated not-burn (HNB) products by strategic clients in major global markets. The tightening global regulations accelerated the exit of non-compliant products, allowing the company to fully benefit from policy advantages as a compliant leader. The flagship new products contributed to an increase in the share of its proprietary brand business. Adjusted net profit for Q3 was approximately RMB 444 million, up 4.0% year-on-year, with expense growth below revenue growth, indicating excellent cost control [3][9]. Group 3: Revenue Projections - Guotou Securities projects Smoore International's revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 14.108 billion, RMB 16.717 billion, and RMB 19.867 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively. The company is assigned a target price of HKD 16.80 for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 48x [1][8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The notes focus on **Smoore International**, a key player in the **Heat-Not-Burn (HNB)** tobacco product industry, particularly in relation to its upcoming product launch in Serbia and its competitive positioning against other tobacco companies like PMI and British American Tobacco [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **Upcoming Product Launch**: Smoore International is set to unveil its new product, PLUS, on February 2, which is expected to address previous user pain points and enhance performance across multiple dimensions [1]. - **HNB Market Dynamics**: The global penetration rate of HNB products is accelerating, highlighting the urgent need for tobacco companies to transform. Currently, only PMI has a complete HNB research and production chain, while British American Tobacco and others rely on external suppliers [1]. - **Innovation Challenges**: The high difficulty of HNB research and innovation, compounded by PMI's strong patent protections, results in a scarcity of mature commercial solutions globally. Many new solutions are still far from mass production [1]. - **Smoore's Competitive Edge**: HILO, Smoore's product, is the only one comparable to IQOS and has completed an innovation upgrade within a year. This solidifies Smoore's position as a core technology provider in the HNB market [2]. - **Market Growth Potential**: The company is expected to replicate the growth curve seen in the vaping sector, with significant growth potential as it attracts more customers and strengthens ties with existing partners like British American Tobacco [2]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: Upcoming reports from British American Tobacco, Smoore's annual report, new customer acquisitions, and regulatory changes in the U.S. vaping market are anticipated to drive growth. Notably, Walgreens has resumed electronic cigarette sales for the first time since 2019, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment [2]. - **Valuation Insights**: The value of Smoore is estimated to be between **70-80 billion HKD**, suggesting a strong investment opportunity, especially for those looking to buy at lower prices [2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The urgency for transformation in the tobacco industry is underscored by the increasing global demand for HNB products, which may lead to a shift in market dynamics and competitive strategies among major players [1]. - The mention of regulatory changes in the U.S. market could signal a broader trend towards normalization and acceptance of vaping products, which may benefit Smoore and its peers in the long run [2].

Core Insights - The ceramic core electronic cigarette has become a mainstream solution in the industry due to its advantages such as precise temperature control, leak-proof design, and low harm stability, with the atomization core being a key component for product experience [1][2] - China's electronic cigarette market has reached hundreds of billions of yuan, with the ceramic core segment expected to grow to 73.88 billion yuan by 2024, transitioning from a compliance "must-have" to a technology "preferred option" [1][12] - The industry is evolving towards high-end technology, concentrated market structure, and diversified product offerings, leveraging cross-domain technology integration to enhance product experience and expand into niche markets and overseas [1][12] Industry Overview - The ceramic core electronic cigarette utilizes a porous ceramic atomization core as the main heating medium, offering features like precise temperature control and long lifespan, which reduces harmful substance release and enhances flavor stability [2][3] - The industry has seen a series of regulatory policies aimed at eliminating outdated technologies and raising entry barriers, creating a compliant development environment for ceramic core electronic cigarettes [6][7] Market Dynamics - China's traditional cigarette production remains stable, while the new tobacco sector is rapidly adapting to regulatory changes, with an expected user base of over 30 million by 2025, primarily among urban middle-to-high-income individuals aged 25-40 [7][8] - The global new tobacco market is projected to grow to $95.15 billion by 2025, with electronic cigarettes capturing approximately 26.86% of the market share, while heated non-combustible (HNB) products dominate with a 46.39% share [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The industry value chain involves close collaboration among upstream suppliers of ceramic powders, batteries, and chips, midstream manufacturers centered in Shenzhen, and downstream market expansion through both online and offline channels [10][11] - The market is characterized by a trend towards high-end products driven by compliance, with a clear segmentation between high-end and low-end markets, leading to increased concentration among leading firms [15][16] Future Trends - The ceramic core electronic cigarette industry is expected to upgrade from single-function products to multi-experience offerings, integrating smart technologies and enhancing user experience [14] - Regulatory compliance will continue to shape market dynamics, with increased barriers leading to the exit of smaller firms and a concentration of resources among leading companies [15] - The industry will explore new growth avenues through diversified product applications and innovative business models, including localized operations in overseas markets [16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, Xiaomi Group, pet food, and AI+3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing growth potential while others face challenges Trendy Toys - The collaboration between Honor and Pop Mart to launch the first trendy toy smartphone is expected to differentiate products in a competitive market, targeting younger consumers [8] - Despite a decline in overall online GMV for trendy toys, leading companies like Miniso and Bluku are experiencing significant growth, with Miniso's blind box category growing by 315% [10] New Tobacco - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for e-cigarettes is expected to pressure profits in the short term, but may benefit companies like Smoore in the long run as they can capture market share from smaller competitors [11] - The HNB market is anticipated to expand significantly with the upcoming launch of IQOS in the US [12] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in new and second-hand home transactions [13] - Export figures show a decline for Chinese furniture, while Vietnam's furniture exports are growing, indicating a shift in regional competitiveness [14] Paper Packaging - The report notes fluctuations in paper prices, with a general decline in prices for various paper types, but anticipates a recovery in demand as packaging needs stabilize [15] - The overall retail growth in food, beverages, and daily necessities is expected to support the packaging sector's recovery [16] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector shows mixed performance, with some brands experiencing growth while others decline [17] - Meta's plans to significantly increase the production capacity of AI glasses signal a positive outlook for the sector, potentially boosting demand across the supply chain [18] Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi continues to lead in the smartphone market, with expectations to integrate self-developed chips and AI models into their products by 2026 [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand positioning and profitability through technological advancements and strategic product launches [20] Pet Food - The pet food market is projected to grow, with a focus on new product introductions and market expansion strategies [23] - Recent data indicates a decline in GMV for pet food on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting competitive pressures [24] AI+3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow, driven by new product launches and community engagement initiatives [33] - Companies are focusing on lowering entry barriers and enhancing user experience to penetrate the market further [36]