国投证券发布研报称，维持思摩尔国际（06969）"买入"的投资评级。思摩尔国际作为全球电子雾化龙 头，坚持研发加码与技术引领，随着全球主要国家对不合规产品的监管力度加强及新业务的持续拓展， 叠加近期连续大额回购彰显的长期信心，其未来发展潜力清晰可期。该行预计思摩尔国际2025-2027年 营业收入为141.08亿元、167.17亿元、198.67亿元，同比增长19.57%、18.50%、18.84%；给予2026年 48xPE，对应目标价16.80港元。 国投证券主要观点如下： 两日耗资近2亿港元，连续大额回购彰显长期信心 根据公司公告，12月11日与12月12日，公司进行了两次回购。】11日以12.26港元/股的均价回购了814万 股、耗资9977万港元，12日以12.48港元/股的均价回购799万股、耗资9976万港元，受托人持有的股份 占公司总股的比例从购买前的1.2853%上升到了1.5457%。此次大额回购彰显了管理层对公司价值和未 来业务增长的长期信心。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国投证券发布研报称，维持思摩尔国际（06969）"买入"的投资评级。思摩尔国际 ...

HNB全球渗透率加速提升的背景下，我们可以看到烟草龙头转型的急迫性在持续提升，但是目前仅有PMI具备完 善的HNB研发&生产链路，#英美&日烟&韩烟均需外部供应商助力。 【信达消费】思摩尔国际：塞尔维亚新品上市倒计时！多重催化加速落地 事件：根据英美烟草塞尔维亚IG官方账号， PLUS上市在即，2月2日将揭晓更多信息。 我们预计，新版本将根据前代产品系统性升级，#之前多个使用痛点有望逐步解决，性能或将多维度提升。 HNB全球渗透率加速提升的背景下，我们可以看到烟草龙头转型的急迫性在持续提升，但是目前仅有PMI具备完 善的HNB研发&生 【信达消费】思摩尔国际：塞尔维亚新品上市倒计时！多重催化加速落地 事件：根据英美烟草塞尔维亚IG官方账号， PLUS上市在即，2月2日将揭晓更多信息。 我们预计，新版本将根据前代产品系统性升级，#之前多个使用痛点有望逐步解决，性能或将多维度提升。 此外，在PMI强势专利封锁下，HNB本身研发难度高、创新难度高，#全球可落地的成熟商业化解决方案稀缺（25 年很多新方案远未达到量产阶段）。 HILO作为近年来唯一一个可以对标IQOS的产品，一年时间即可完成创新升级，#思摩尔全球HN ...

Core Insights - The ceramic core electronic cigarette has become a mainstream solution in the industry due to its advantages such as precise temperature control, leak-proof design, and low harm stability, with the atomization core being a key component for product experience [1][2] - China's electronic cigarette market has reached hundreds of billions of yuan, with the ceramic core segment expected to grow to 73.88 billion yuan by 2024, transitioning from a compliance "must-have" to a technology "preferred option" [1][12] - The industry is evolving towards high-end technology, concentrated market structure, and diversified product offerings, leveraging cross-domain technology integration to enhance product experience and expand into niche markets and overseas [1][12] Industry Overview - The ceramic core electronic cigarette utilizes a porous ceramic atomization core as the main heating medium, offering features like precise temperature control and long lifespan, which reduces harmful substance release and enhances flavor stability [2][3] - The industry has seen a series of regulatory policies aimed at eliminating outdated technologies and raising entry barriers, creating a compliant development environment for ceramic core electronic cigarettes [6][7] Market Dynamics - China's traditional cigarette production remains stable, while the new tobacco sector is rapidly adapting to regulatory changes, with an expected user base of over 30 million by 2025, primarily among urban middle-to-high-income individuals aged 25-40 [7][8] - The global new tobacco market is projected to grow to $95.15 billion by 2025, with electronic cigarettes capturing approximately 26.86% of the market share, while heated non-combustible (HNB) products dominate with a 46.39% share [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The industry value chain involves close collaboration among upstream suppliers of ceramic powders, batteries, and chips, midstream manufacturers centered in Shenzhen, and downstream market expansion through both online and offline channels [10][11] - The market is characterized by a trend towards high-end products driven by compliance, with a clear segmentation between high-end and low-end markets, leading to increased concentration among leading firms [15][16] Future Trends - The ceramic core electronic cigarette industry is expected to upgrade from single-function products to multi-experience offerings, integrating smart technologies and enhancing user experience [14] - Regulatory compliance will continue to shape market dynamics, with increased barriers leading to the exit of smaller firms and a concentration of resources among leading companies [15] - The industry will explore new growth avenues through diversified product applications and innovative business models, including localized operations in overseas markets [16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, Xiaomi Group, pet food, and AI+3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing growth potential while others face challenges Trendy Toys - The collaboration between Honor and Pop Mart to launch the first trendy toy smartphone is expected to differentiate products in a competitive market, targeting younger consumers [8] - Despite a decline in overall online GMV for trendy toys, leading companies like Miniso and Bluku are experiencing significant growth, with Miniso's blind box category growing by 315% [10] New Tobacco - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for e-cigarettes is expected to pressure profits in the short term, but may benefit companies like Smoore in the long run as they can capture market share from smaller competitors [11] - The HNB market is anticipated to expand significantly with the upcoming launch of IQOS in the US [12] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in new and second-hand home transactions [13] - Export figures show a decline for Chinese furniture, while Vietnam's furniture exports are growing, indicating a shift in regional competitiveness [14] Paper Packaging - The report notes fluctuations in paper prices, with a general decline in prices for various paper types, but anticipates a recovery in demand as packaging needs stabilize [15] - The overall retail growth in food, beverages, and daily necessities is expected to support the packaging sector's recovery [16] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector shows mixed performance, with some brands experiencing growth while others decline [17] - Meta's plans to significantly increase the production capacity of AI glasses signal a positive outlook for the sector, potentially boosting demand across the supply chain [18] Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi continues to lead in the smartphone market, with expectations to integrate self-developed chips and AI models into their products by 2026 [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand positioning and profitability through technological advancements and strategic product launches [20] Pet Food - The pet food market is projected to grow, with a focus on new product introductions and market expansion strategies [23] - Recent data indicates a decline in GMV for pet food on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting competitive pressures [24] AI+3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow, driven by new product launches and community engagement initiatives [33] - Companies are focusing on lowering entry barriers and enhancing user experience to penetrate the market further [36]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Outlook**: The sector is believed to be in the early stage of a multi-year recovery cycle that began in Q3 2024, with expectations for gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and spending through 2026E [2][11][12] Key Insights - **Valuation**: MSCI China Consumer Discretionary and Staples are trading at 17x and 15x 12-month forward PE, approximately one standard deviation below the 10-year averages, indicating that current valuations do not reflect a potential consumption recovery [2][9] - **Consumer Confidence**: The China Consumer Confidence Index has been trending upwards since September 2024, suggesting a gradual restoration of consumer confidence despite ongoing challenges in the property market [12][19] - **K-shaped Recovery**: The recovery is characterized by a K-shaped trend, where mid- to high-income consumers in tier-1 cities are expected to lead spending, while lower-tier city consumers remain focused on value for money [3][48] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Shifting Preferences**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates a divergence in consumer behavior, with over 50% of mid- to high-income consumers reporting investment gains and showing strong spending intentions, particularly in premium and experiential categories [3][37] - **Spending Intentions**: The strongest spending intentions are noted in beauty and skincare (41%) and tourism (37%), reflecting a shift towards experiential and premium spending [51] - **Investment Gains**: 64-74% of mid- to high-income consumers reported increased investment returns, with many planning to reinvest or spend on travel, health services, and consumer electronics [40][41] Stock Implications - **Company Ratings**: - Upgrades to Neutral for Fenjiu due to expected benefits from non-business baijiu consumption - Buy ratings maintained for companies like MIXUE, Guming, China Foods, CR Beer, and YUM China, among others [4] - **Dividend Payouts**: Premium baijiu companies are noted for their >75% dividend payout, which is expected to protect share prices from downside risks [4] Structural Growth Opportunities - **Emerging Themes**: Key investment themes for 2026E include changing consumer preferences, corporate restructuring, and industry consolidation, particularly in sectors like home appliances and mass-market consumption [14][50] - **Corporate Restructuring**: Companies are expected to adapt their business models to align with changing consumer behaviors, which may lead to sustainable long-term earnings growth [4][50] Risks and Challenges - **Property Market Downturn**: The ongoing downturn in the property market is anticipated to weigh on household balance sheets, potentially impacting consumer spending [13][48] - **Policy Support**: The pace of recovery is contingent on stabilizing the property market and effective policy implementation to boost consumption [13][48] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a recovery, driven by improving consumer confidence and shifting spending patterns. However, the recovery will be uneven across different income groups and city tiers, necessitating a nuanced investment approach to capture emerging opportunities while being mindful of potential risks associated with the property market downturn.

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4% in its stock price due to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel the export tax rebate for e-cigarette products starting from April 1, 2026, which will significantly impact profit margins [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to hedge costs and maintain international pricing advantages, and its removal means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost [1] - Zheshang Securities recently published a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic e-cigarette production, sales, and export sectors, suggesting that the supply-side landscape of the industry will change [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that smaller illegal producers may be accelerated out of the market, which could benefit compliant companies like Smoore International, positioning it as a leading player in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4%, trading at HKD 11.18 with a transaction volume of HKD 172 million [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for electronic cigarette products will be canceled, which previously had a rebate rate of 13% [1] - The removal of the tax rebate means that companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, which will directly compress profit margins [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) released a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic electronic cigarette production, sales, and export sectors [1] - The industry supply-side structure is expected to change, with illegal small workshops likely to be accelerated in their exit from the market [1] - As a compliant listed leader, Smoore International is expected to benefit from these regulatory changes [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - Leading AI model companies saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31% and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% due to a strategic partnership with Didi [1] - Other AI-related stocks also performed well, including Mifengshi (02556) which rose by 18%, and AI pharmaceutical companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12% and Yidu Tech (02158) up over 8% [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with expectations of significant revenue growth in FY2026 due to its AI initiatives [1] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, benefiting from accelerated AI model integration in industrial processes [1] Group 3: Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium (09696) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw increases of over 5% and 6% respectively, driven by export tax adjustments that may stimulate demand [1] Group 4: New Listings and Stock Movements - The new stock Hao Wei Group (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [2] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a significant discount [2] Group 5: Regulatory Impact on Companies - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (Ningde Times) fell by 2.94% due to new battery export tax policies and rising lithium carbonate prices [3] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting profits [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] - Companies involved in AI large models saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31%, and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% after a strategic partnership with Didi to explore mobility agent scenarios [1] - The AI pharmaceutical sector also benefited from the surge in AI large models, with companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12%, and Yidu Tech (02158) increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with its AI initiatives expected to significantly boost revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, driven by accelerated full-process empowerment through industrial large models and the implementation of multi-agent collaboration in its AI Starry Sky suite [3] - New stock Haowei Group (603501) (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [4] Group 3 - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a discount of approximately 59.46% [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) (03750) fell by 2.94% due to the introduction of a new battery export tax rebate policy, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise [6] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting the profits of related companies [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the stock price of Smoore International (06969), which dropped nearly 7% during trading and is currently down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new export tax rebate adjustment, which will exclude nicotine-containing non-combustible products from the rebate starting April 1, 2026 [1] - Analysts indicate that the previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, directly compressing profit margins [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a research report suggesting that with international tobacco leaders' HNB products entering mainstream markets, Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions are expected to contribute incremental sales [1] - The report also notes that regions like the UK and other European areas are likely to shift towards more profitable products such as cartridge-based and open-system devices [1] - There is a significant increase in enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US, which is expected to restore market share for compliant products [1]