Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, Xiaomi Group, pet food, and AI+3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing growth potential while others face challenges Trendy Toys - The collaboration between Honor and Pop Mart to launch the first trendy toy smartphone is expected to differentiate products in a competitive market, targeting younger consumers [8] - Despite a decline in overall online GMV for trendy toys, leading companies like Miniso and Bluku are experiencing significant growth, with Miniso's blind box category growing by 315% [10] New Tobacco - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for e-cigarettes is expected to pressure profits in the short term, but may benefit companies like Smoore in the long run as they can capture market share from smaller competitors [11] - The HNB market is anticipated to expand significantly with the upcoming launch of IQOS in the US [12] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in new and second-hand home transactions [13] - Export figures show a decline for Chinese furniture, while Vietnam's furniture exports are growing, indicating a shift in regional competitiveness [14] Paper Packaging - The report notes fluctuations in paper prices, with a general decline in prices for various paper types, but anticipates a recovery in demand as packaging needs stabilize [15] - The overall retail growth in food, beverages, and daily necessities is expected to support the packaging sector's recovery [16] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector shows mixed performance, with some brands experiencing growth while others decline [17] - Meta's plans to significantly increase the production capacity of AI glasses signal a positive outlook for the sector, potentially boosting demand across the supply chain [18] Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi continues to lead in the smartphone market, with expectations to integrate self-developed chips and AI models into their products by 2026 [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand positioning and profitability through technological advancements and strategic product launches [20] Pet Food - The pet food market is projected to grow, with a focus on new product introductions and market expansion strategies [23] - Recent data indicates a decline in GMV for pet food on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting competitive pressures [24] AI+3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow, driven by new product launches and community engagement initiatives [33] - Companies are focusing on lowering entry barriers and enhancing user experience to penetrate the market further [36]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Outlook**: The sector is believed to be in the early stage of a multi-year recovery cycle that began in Q3 2024, with expectations for gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and spending through 2026E [2][11][12] Key Insights - **Valuation**: MSCI China Consumer Discretionary and Staples are trading at 17x and 15x 12-month forward PE, approximately one standard deviation below the 10-year averages, indicating that current valuations do not reflect a potential consumption recovery [2][9] - **Consumer Confidence**: The China Consumer Confidence Index has been trending upwards since September 2024, suggesting a gradual restoration of consumer confidence despite ongoing challenges in the property market [12][19] - **K-shaped Recovery**: The recovery is characterized by a K-shaped trend, where mid- to high-income consumers in tier-1 cities are expected to lead spending, while lower-tier city consumers remain focused on value for money [3][48] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Shifting Preferences**: A UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates a divergence in consumer behavior, with over 50% of mid- to high-income consumers reporting investment gains and showing strong spending intentions, particularly in premium and experiential categories [3][37] - **Spending Intentions**: The strongest spending intentions are noted in beauty and skincare (41%) and tourism (37%), reflecting a shift towards experiential and premium spending [51] - **Investment Gains**: 64-74% of mid- to high-income consumers reported increased investment returns, with many planning to reinvest or spend on travel, health services, and consumer electronics [40][41] Stock Implications - **Company Ratings**: - Upgrades to Neutral for Fenjiu due to expected benefits from non-business baijiu consumption - Buy ratings maintained for companies like MIXUE, Guming, China Foods, CR Beer, and YUM China, among others [4] - **Dividend Payouts**: Premium baijiu companies are noted for their >75% dividend payout, which is expected to protect share prices from downside risks [4] Structural Growth Opportunities - **Emerging Themes**: Key investment themes for 2026E include changing consumer preferences, corporate restructuring, and industry consolidation, particularly in sectors like home appliances and mass-market consumption [14][50] - **Corporate Restructuring**: Companies are expected to adapt their business models to align with changing consumer behaviors, which may lead to sustainable long-term earnings growth [4][50] Risks and Challenges - **Property Market Downturn**: The ongoing downturn in the property market is anticipated to weigh on household balance sheets, potentially impacting consumer spending [13][48] - **Policy Support**: The pace of recovery is contingent on stabilizing the property market and effective policy implementation to boost consumption [13][48] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a recovery, driven by improving consumer confidence and shifting spending patterns. However, the recovery will be uneven across different income groups and city tiers, necessitating a nuanced investment approach to capture emerging opportunities while being mindful of potential risks associated with the property market downturn.

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4% in its stock price due to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel the export tax rebate for e-cigarette products starting from April 1, 2026, which will significantly impact profit margins [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to hedge costs and maintain international pricing advantages, and its removal means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost [1] - Zheshang Securities recently published a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic e-cigarette production, sales, and export sectors, suggesting that the supply-side landscape of the industry will change [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that smaller illegal producers may be accelerated out of the market, which could benefit compliant companies like Smoore International, positioning it as a leading player in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4%, trading at HKD 11.18 with a transaction volume of HKD 172 million [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for electronic cigarette products will be canceled, which previously had a rebate rate of 13% [1] - The removal of the tax rebate means that companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, which will directly compress profit margins [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) released a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic electronic cigarette production, sales, and export sectors [1] - The industry supply-side structure is expected to change, with illegal small workshops likely to be accelerated in their exit from the market [1] - As a compliant listed leader, Smoore International is expected to benefit from these regulatory changes [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - Leading AI model companies saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31% and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% due to a strategic partnership with Didi [1] - Other AI-related stocks also performed well, including Mifengshi (02556) which rose by 18%, and AI pharmaceutical companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12% and Yidu Tech (02158) up over 8% [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with expectations of significant revenue growth in FY2026 due to its AI initiatives [1] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, benefiting from accelerated AI model integration in industrial processes [1] Group 3: Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium (09696) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw increases of over 5% and 6% respectively, driven by export tax adjustments that may stimulate demand [1] Group 4: New Listings and Stock Movements - The new stock Hao Wei Group (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [2] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a significant discount [2] Group 5: Regulatory Impact on Companies - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (Ningde Times) fell by 2.94% due to new battery export tax policies and rising lithium carbonate prices [3] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting profits [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] - Companies involved in AI large models saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31%, and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% after a strategic partnership with Didi to explore mobility agent scenarios [1] - The AI pharmaceutical sector also benefited from the surge in AI large models, with companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12%, and Yidu Tech (02158) increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with its AI initiatives expected to significantly boost revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, driven by accelerated full-process empowerment through industrial large models and the implementation of multi-agent collaboration in its AI Starry Sky suite [3] - New stock Haowei Group (603501) (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [4] Group 3 - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a discount of approximately 59.46% [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) (03750) fell by 2.94% due to the introduction of a new battery export tax rebate policy, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise [6] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting the profits of related companies [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the stock price of Smoore International (06969), which dropped nearly 7% during trading and is currently down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new export tax rebate adjustment, which will exclude nicotine-containing non-combustible products from the rebate starting April 1, 2026 [1] - Analysts indicate that the previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, directly compressing profit margins [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a research report suggesting that with international tobacco leaders' HNB products entering mainstream markets, Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions are expected to contribute incremental sales [1] - The report also notes that regions like the UK and other European areas are likely to shift towards more profitable products such as cartridge-based and open-system devices [1] - There is a significant increase in enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US, which is expected to restore market share for compliant products [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the Chinese government's announcement to remove export tax rebates for nicotine-containing non-combustible products, effective from April 1, 2026, which is expected to compress profit margins for companies like Smoore International [1] - Smoore International's stock experienced a decline of nearly 7% during trading, closing down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full value-added tax costs [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a report indicating that the entry of international tobacco leaders' HNB products into mainstream markets could lead to increased sales of Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions [1] - There is potential for stronger profitability in regions like the UK and other European areas, particularly with the shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products [1] - The enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US has intensified, suggesting a significant recovery potential for compliant product shares in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for Smoore International Company Overview - Smoore International is transitioning from an electronic vapor company to a platform company focused on heated not-burn (HNB) technology, collaborating with firms like British American Tobacco to advance new tobacco products in response to the declining traditional cigarette market [2][5]. Industry Trends - The global traditional cigarette market is experiencing a continuous decline, with a significant drop in per capita smoking rates in the U.S. by 30% to 40% since 1970. The smoking population and consumption have decreased by approximately 1% annually over the past 20 years [7]. - New tobacco products, including HNB and oral products, are seen as key to overcoming the challenges faced by traditional tobacco companies. HNB and oral products are more suitable for large traditional tobacco firms, while the vapor electronic cigarette market is dominated by Chinese manufacturers [10]. Key Points on Smoore's Business - Smoore's HNB products are gaining market share in Japan, Italy, and Poland, indicating strong market performance and growth potential. For instance, Japan saw a 1.4% increase in market share within three months [11]. - The market valuation of Smoore is considered conservative, with future growth expected primarily from HNB business expansion. Achieving sales of over 10 billion units by 2026 could lead to a significant leap in performance [13]. - Smoore's U.S. subsidiary is focused on the medical vaporization sector and has applied for FDA certification, investing approximately 400 million yuan annually in R&D. This segment is expected to become a new growth point within three years [19]. Financial Projections and Market Expectations - Smoore has set ambitious market capitalization targets of 300 billion, 400 billion, and 500 billion yuan by 2025, despite its current valuation being in the hundreds of billions [4]. - The traditional electronic vapor market is stabilizing, with an expected annual growth rate of over 10% [3][18]. - The company anticipates that its HNB business could contribute significantly to its valuation, with estimates suggesting a sales share of 10-15% from HNB products, potentially leading to substantial profit elasticity [16][17]. Future Outlook - The domestic new tobacco market in China is expected to grow significantly, with Smoore positioned to benefit from this shift. The potential transition towards new tobacco products in China could create vast market opportunities [14]. - The medical vaporization segment is seen as a third growth curve for Smoore, with expectations for commercialization and revenue generation within three years [19][20]. Conclusion - Smoore International is strategically positioned to capitalize on the evolving tobacco landscape, with a focus on HNB technology and medical applications. The company's growth potential is supported by its innovative R&D efforts and collaborations with major tobacco firms, setting the stage for a promising future in the new tobacco market.