1月23日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约一度涨超5%，最高触及17.8万元/吨。 摩根大通报告指出，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设施并与当地专家会面。 主要留意到：宁德时代旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在其重启前，锂价将维持在高位；来 自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币；当前价格正在诱发更多供应，且回收量 将在2028年显著跃升。 中信建投证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合治理行动计 划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计划，当前供给 端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。 需求端，由于出口退税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 消费淡季不淡，维持去库，锂基本面较为强势，二季度供给紧张担忧不断加剧。 摩根大通表示，对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行 印象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂 价格的涨势。在摩通看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者 ...

需求端，由于出口退税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 1月23日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约一度涨超5%，最高触及17.8万元/吨。 摩根大通报告指出，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设施并与当地专家会面。 主要留意到：宁德时代（300750）旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在其重启前，锂价将维持 在高位；来自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币；当前价格正在诱发更多供 应，且回收量将在2028年显著跃升。 中信建投（601066）证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合 治理行动计划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计 划，当前供给端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。 摩根大通表示，对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行 印象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂 价格的涨势。在摩通看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者推迟了对矿山重启的预期。 碳酸锂相关产业 ...

据SMM，国内碳酸锂库存周度环比继续下降783吨，上游锂盐厂成品库存不足2万吨，下游材料厂库存 不足4万吨，处于偏低水平，跌价带来较为明显的补库效应。 消费淡季不淡，维持去库，锂基本面较为强势，二季度供给紧张担忧不断加剧。 摩根大通表示，对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行 印象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂 价格的涨势。在摩通看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者推迟了对矿山重启的预期。 摩根大通报告指出，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设施并与当地专家会面。 主要留意到：宁德时代旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在其重启前，锂价将维持在高位；来 自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币；当前价格正在诱发更多供应，且回收量 将在2028年显著跃升。 中信建投证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合治理行动计 划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计划，当前供给 端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半 ...

近期，宜春八矿中已有两矿更新进度，处于换证进程中。 自然资源部采矿许可信息查验系统显示，宜春国轩矿业有限责任公司的水南矿开采主矿种已变更为"锂 矿"，说明已经进入换证阶段。同样，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿的开采主矿种也变更为"锂矿"。此前，枧下 窝锂矿已于2025年12月18日进入第一次环评公示阶段，公示期为10个工作日。 关于换证停产问题，国轩高科回应记者称，目前也在了解情况，以公司公开信息为准。 按照有关法规，换证期间矿山应处于停产状态。《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》规定，变更主要开采矿 种的，采矿权人应当在采矿许可证有效期内，向登记管理机关申请变更登记。任何单位和个人未领取采 矿许可证擅自采矿的，由登记管理机关依照有关法律、行政法规的规定予以处罚。 新的采矿许可证下达或仍需等待较长周期。一位业内知情人士告诉记者，矿山企业申请变更开采主矿 种，是矿业权管理中的重大变更登记事项之一，其办理周期长、流程复杂、不确定性高。通常，一个完 整的变更流程至少需要1.5年至3年甚至更长时间，具体周期受项目基础、地区政策、审批层级等因素影 响巨大。其中，如涉及重做或重大变更，环评报告需重新报批，整个过程包括编制、公示、评审、批 复 ...

"天齐锂业"牌被正式纳入广州期货交易所碳酸锂期货注册品牌，标志着其产品从"可交割"升级为"品牌 交割品"，是企业核心竞争力在金融市场的权威认证，构成多维度战略利好。 1月22日，广期所发布公告称，新增天齐锂业股份有限公司"天齐锂业"牌为碳酸锂期货注册品牌，新增 的注册品牌自2026年2月2日起启用。 据悉，此前天齐锂业已成为碳酸锂期货指定交割库，成为注册品牌后，天齐锂业可实现"交割厂库+注 册品牌"双布局，成为全国唯一同时拥有碳酸锂期货交割厂库资质与注册品牌的锂企。 资讯编辑：周小燕 021-26096760 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 据悉，为更好发挥碳酸锂期货功能，广期所于2025年5月15日发布了征集碳酸锂 ...

碳酸锂市场冲高回落，政策扰动与需求现实 博弈加剧 --碳酸锂周报2026年1月12日-1月16日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 分类标准 | 来源 | | 上周升贴水 本周升贴水 | 周度变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原料分类 | 旌石料 | -1700 | -1600 | 100 | | | 云母料 | -1600 | -1500 | 100 | | | 盐湖料 | -2050 | -2050 | 0 | | | 同收料 | -2050 | -2050 | 0 | | 企业分类 | 赣锋锂业 | -1300 | -1100 | 200 | | | 九岭锂业 | -1700 | -1500 | 200 | | | 春鹏锂业 | -1400 | -1200 | 200 | | | 瑞福锂业 | -1700 | -1500 | 200 | | | 盛鑫锂业 | -1400 | -1200 | 200 | | | 致远锂业 | -1400 | -1200 | ...

AI基金嘉实新能源新材料股票A（003984）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润5844.23万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0539元。报告期内，基金净值 增长率为2.04%，截至四季度末，基金规模为28.55亿元。 该基金属于标准股票型基金，长期投资于先进制造股票。截至1月22日，单位净值为2.894元。基金经理是姚志鹏和熊昱洲，目前共同管理的2只基金近一年 均为正收益。其中，截至1月22日，嘉实新能源新材料股票A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达71.59%；嘉实产业先锋混合A最低，为50.66%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，我们围绕对于当下和 2026 年经济、市场环境的判断，逐步增加了新能源中偏资源属性的上游资产，增加对于潜在碳酸锂、 钴、镍等商品上涨的风险暴露，后续我们会继续根据宏观、中观潜在的环境变化，结合股票资产的估值水平进行组合的动态平衡。 截至12月31日，基金近三年夏普比率为0.5367，位于同类可比基金12/32。 截至1月22日，基金近三年最大回撤为55.48%，同类可比基金排名28/32。单季度最大回撤出现在2022年三季度，为24.88%。 截至1月22日，嘉实新能源新材料股 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Changjiang New Energy Industry Mixed A (011446) reported a profit of 12.24 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1594 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 10.18%, and the fund size reached 123 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [2][13]. Fund Performance - As of January 21, the fund's unit net value was 1.932 yuan. Over the past year, the fund achieved a cumulative growth rate of 76.8%, outperforming its peers [2]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a 27.27% growth rate over the past three months, ranking 7 out of 621 comparable funds, and a 59.78% growth rate over the past six months, ranking 27 out of 621 [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on the new energy industry and its upstream and downstream sectors, seeking opportunities in supply-demand reversals and technological advancements within the industry. The management plans to continue tracking and identifying investment opportunities in these areas [2]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.6629, ranking 173 out of 526 comparable funds [7]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 43.48%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 21.13% [9]. Portfolio Composition - As of December 31, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 78.37%, compared to the industry average of 85.83%. The fund reached its highest stock position of 86.26% at the end of 2021 and its lowest of 72.55% by the end of Q3 2024 [12]. - The top ten holdings of the fund include Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, CATL, Tianhua New Energy, Yongxing Materials, China National Materials, Liyuanheng, Guoci Materials, Sifang Co., and Keda Technology [16].