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有色金属2026年度策略
Huaan Securities· 2025-12-16 12:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].
智通港股早知道 | 磷酸铁锂迎来涨价潮 特斯拉(TSLA.US)创近一年新高
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 00:08
【今日头条】 中核集团攻克富集靶材辐照制备碘-131全链条技术 【热点前瞻】 据中核集团官微消息,在中核集团同位素生产协同平台的高效统筹下,我国医用同位素自主化攻关再传 捷报。平台充分发挥集团内部协同创新优势,整合中国原子能所属核理化院、核动力院、中核高通、中 核二七二铀业,攻克富集¹³ºTeO₂靶材辐照制备碘-131全产业链技术,形成了从碘-131前置核素制备、反 应堆辐照到核药研发的完整环境友好型自主产业链。在高丰度、高纯度碲-130同位素制备方面,核理化 院攻克了同位素分离与氧化物合成、提纯等多项关键技术难题,成功制备出丰度超99%、核级纯度标准 的¹³ºTeO₂靶材。核理化院联合中核二七二铀业批量制备碲同位素分离介质,稳定保障碲同位素分离原料 供给。此项成果填补了国内高纯富集碲同位素规模化制备的空白,为我国高端核医学材料自主可控提供 了核心支撑。 中国同位素与辐射行业协会秘书长郭丽莉介绍,截至2024年,国家药监局批准上市的放射治疗设备超90 款,其中国产品牌占比超七成,彻底改变了此前依赖进口设备的局面。与此同时,放射性药物新药研发 也进入快车道,进入临床试验阶段的管线超200条,镥-177、钇-90 ...
天齐锂业:截至2025年12月10日公司A股股东户数为307706户
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-15 14:17
证券日报网讯12月15日,天齐锂业(002466)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,截至2025年12月10 日,公司A股股东户数为307706户。 ...
天齐锂业:公司的生产经营安排需综合考虑市场需求等多方面因素
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-15 14:17
证券日报网讯 12月15日,天齐锂业(002466)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司的生产经营安 排需综合考虑市场需求、库存结构、客户订单、资源禀赋及公司长期发展等多方面因素。公司始终坚持 以市场化原则开展经营活动,相关生产、销售和库存策略均会在充分评估行业环境和公司实际情况的基 础上审慎制定。公司将持续关注市场供需变化,保持经营稳健,为股东创造长期价值。 ...
磷酸铁锂行业正掀提价浪潮,机构看好2026年锂产业链投资机遇(附概念股)
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 00:40
Group 1: Price Trends in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that from 2026, the processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, while others are still in negotiations, suggesting that price hikes are becoming a prevailing trend [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to November, domestic power battery installations reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0% [2] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium stated that global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by around 250,000 tons [3] - If demand growth exceeds 30%, prices may rise significantly, potentially surpassing 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - CITIC Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources for future growth in the lithium industry [4] - The report suggests that companies with high resource self-sufficiency can maintain stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The expectation of continued upward adjustments in energy storage demand is likely to improve the supply-demand balance in the lithium market [4] Group 5: Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium is expanding its metal lithium production capacity, with 600 tons currently and an additional 1,000 tons under construction, positioning itself as the second-largest globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and established stable supply partnerships with leading companies, ensuring delivery stability amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state battery technology, has achieved mass production of its semi-solid state batteries, contributing significant revenue, while also advancing solid-state battery research [6]
港股概念追踪 | 磷酸铁锂行业正掀提价浪潮 机构看好2026年锂产业链投资机遇(附概念股)
智通财经网· 2025-12-14 23:25
Group 1: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers starting from 2026 [1] - Some companies have already implemented price increases, while others are in negotiations, indicating that price hikes are becoming a trend to restore profit levels in the industry [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulative battery installation from January to November reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries making up 81.2% of the total [2] Group 3: Lithium Demand Forecast - The global demand for lithium is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Predictions indicate a 30% increase in lithium demand, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by around 250,000 tons [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is focusing on resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources, which are crucial for stable raw material supply and high margins [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with significant production growth potential and the ability to maintain operations during market downturns [4] Group 5: Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium has a production capacity of 600 tons of metal lithium and is building an additional 1,000 tons, ranking second globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and is collaborating with leading companies, ensuring stable delivery amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state batteries, is advancing its technology and production capabilities, with significant revenue contributions expected from its products [6]
磷酸铁锂行业正掀提价浪潮 机构看好2026年锂产业链投资机遇(附概念股)
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-14 23:20
近期,磷酸铁锂行业正掀起一波密集的提价浪潮,头部厂商已开始向客户发出明确的涨价通知。据了 解,一家主要厂商已明确2026年起全系列磷酸铁锂产品加工费将统一上调。另有行业人士透露,前期已 经对客户落地提价。也有企业仍在与客户进行紧锣密鼓地谈判,但也表示"涨价已成为大势所趋",这有 望修复行业企业利润水平。 据《卫报》报道,美国国防部正通过国家国防储备计划大规模囤积关键矿产,被纳入囤积范围的至少包 括38种矿物和金属,其中涵盖锂、钴、石墨以及稀土元素,这些正是能源转型所依赖的基础材料。 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟发布2025年11月动力电池月度信息。11月,国内动力电池装车量 93.5GWh,环比增长11.2%,同比增长39.2%。其中三元电池装车量18.2GWh,占总装车量19.4%,环比 增长9.9%,同比增长33.7%;磷酸铁锂电池装车量75.3GWh,占总装车量80.5%,环比增长11.6%,同比 增长40.7%。1-11月,国内动力电池累计装车量671.5GWh,累计同比增长42.0%。其中三元电池累计装 车量125.9GWh,占总装车量18.8%,累计同比增长1.0%;磷酸铁锂电池累计装车量545. ...
美联储如期降息,看好金属价格上涨弹性
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].
有色能源金属行业周报:短期锂价或维持震荡,战略金属价值重估背景下看好锑钴钨锡等金属-20251214
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-14 05:36
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]
固态电池全球独角兽启动创业板IPO 合作公司曝光
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 23:41
Core Viewpoint - Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Weilan New Energy") has initiated its A-share IPO and submitted a counseling record, aiming to list on the ChiNext board, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution. This listing is expected to have a positive impact on the solid-state battery industry chain, providing a model for capital operations and attracting more investment into the solid-state battery sector, thereby promoting technological research and mass production [1] Company Summary - Weilan New Energy is a leading enterprise in the solid-state battery field in China [1] - The company has strategic partnerships with several listed companies, enhancing its market position and collaborative potential [1] Industry Summary - The IPO of Weilan New Energy is anticipated to benefit the solid-state battery industry chain, particularly for shareholders and partners involved [1] - Multiple listed companies have established strategic collaborations or supply agreements with Weilan New Energy, indicating a robust network within the industry [1] - Notable partnerships include Tianqi Lithium, which holds a 3% stake in Weilan New Energy, and other companies like Aosheng Technology, Prit, Huayou Cobalt, Rongbai Technology, and Xingyuan Environment, all of which have signed strategic cooperation agreements with Weilan New Energy [1]