Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion, representing a 23% increase year-over-year and a 20% decrease quarter-over-quarter [32] - For the full year of 2024, total net revenue was RMB 53.3 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth [32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 3.0 billion, compared to RMB 2.9 billion in the same period last year and RMB 5.7 billion in the previous quarter [38] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share for Q4 were RMB 3.09 or USD 0.42, while non-GAAP diluted earnings were RMB 4.35 or USD 0.60 [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue in Q4 was RMB 5.2 billion, a 33% increase year-over-year but a 24% decrease quarter-over-quarter [33] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 was RMB 4.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year and a 15% decrease quarter-over-quarter [33] - Packaged tour revenue for Q4 was RMB 870 million, a 24% increase year-over-year but a 44% decrease quarter-over-quarter [34] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 was RMB 702 million, an 11% increase year-over-year and a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, outbound hotel and air ticket bookings recovered to more than 120% compared to 2019, outperforming the industry by 30% to 40% [16] - Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com platforms increased by over 100% year-over-year, with those from visa-free countries rising by over 150% [18] - The international business represented 14% of group revenue in Q4 and 10% for the full year of 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on AI innovation to enhance travel accessibility and personalization, with tools like TripGenie seeing a 200% traffic surge [10] - Trip.com is committed to promoting inbound travel and rural revitalization as part of its sustainability initiatives [11][12] - The company aims to capitalize on trends among younger travelers and the silver generation, introducing tailored offerings for both demographics [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the travel market, highlighting strong demand for both domestic and international travel [50] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by the recovery of direct flights and relaxed visa restrictions [52][53] - Management emphasized the importance of enhancing operational efficiency and leveraging AI to support long-term growth [59] Other Important Information - The company announced a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend totaling approximately USD 200 million for 2025 [40][41] - As of December 31, 2024, the balance of cash and cash equivalents was RMB 90 billion or USD 12.3 billion [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI's impact on OTAs - Management believes AI will complement OTAs rather than replace them, enhancing personalized travel planning [45][47] Question: Current leisure and business travel demand outlook - Management sees strong demand, particularly in domestic travel and among younger and early retired travelers [50][51] Question: Outlook for operating margin trends - Management does not set specific margin targets but expects continuous improvement in operational efficiency to support margins [58][59] Question: Performance during Chinese New Year and hotel price outlook - Travel demand remained healthy during the holiday, with outbound bookings increasing over 20% year-over-year [63][64] Question: Outlook for outbound travel and capacity improvement - Outbound flight capacity is expected to recover to over 90% of pre-pandemic levels by 2025, with continued growth in outbound bookings [68][70] Question: Growth outlook for Trip.com platform - The platform is experiencing rapid growth, supported by a focus on customer service and AI investments [74][75] Question: Contribution of inbound travel to business - Inbound travel has significant potential, with management expecting it to become a major contributor to the industry [79][82] Question: Updates on capital return program - The dividend payout date is set for March 27, 2025, for ordinary shares, with a new capital return program authorized for 2025 [85]

Core Insights - Trip.com reported quarterly earnings of $0.60 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.52 per share, and showing an increase from $0.56 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 15.38% [1] - The company generated revenues of $1.75 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.22%, and up from $1.45 billion year-over-year [2] - Trip.com has consistently outperformed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.93 on revenues of $1.92 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.99 on revenues of $8.39 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Trip.com is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Trip.com belongs, is currently ranked in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a positive outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Trip.com Group achieved net operating revenue of RMB 12.7 billion (USD 1.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 23%[9] - For the full year 2024, net operating revenue reached RMB 53.3 billion (USD 7.3 billion), reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth[10] - Q4 2024 net profit was RMB 2.2 billion (USD 300 million), compared to RMB 1.3 billion in the same period of 2023[16] - In 2024, the net profit attributable to Trip.com Group was RMB 17.2 billion (USD 2.4 billion), compared to RMB 10 billion in 2023, representing a 72% increase[17] - For Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders was RMB 2.2 billion (USD 295 million), up from RMB 1.3 billion in Q4 2023, and down from RMB 6.8 billion in the previous quarter[17] - The adjusted net profit for 2024, excluding stock-based compensation and certain fair value changes, was RMB 18 billion (USD 2.5 billion), compared to RMB 13.1 billion in 2023[17] - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were RMB 3.09 (USD 0.42), while the non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 4.35 (USD 0.60)[18] - The diluted earnings per share for the full year 2024 were RMB 24.78 (USD 3.39), while the non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 26.20 (USD 3.59)[18] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, accommodation booking revenue was RMB 5.2 billion (USD 709 million), up 33% year-on-year[10] - Q4 2024 transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 4.8 billion (USD 655 million), a 16% year-on-year increase[10] - The company's international OTA platform saw hotel and flight bookings increase by over 70% year-on-year[8] - Trip.com Group's inbound travel bookings grew by over 100% year-on-year in Q4 2024[8] Expenses and Investments - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 3.4 billion (USD 465 million), a 16% increase year-on-year[13] - Sales and marketing expenses in Q4 2024 were RMB 3.4 billion (USD 462 million), up 45% year-on-year[13] Future Projections and Plans - The company anticipates continued growth in the travel market driven by strong consumer demand and investment in AI[8] - The company has authorized a new capital return plan for 2025, including a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend of approximately USD 200 million for FY 2024[20] - The cash dividend will be USD 0.30 per share for common stock or ADS, payable to shareholders registered by the close of business on March 17, 2025[20] - The company plans to expand its market presence and enhance its product offerings, focusing on technology development and strategic acquisitions[33] Asset and Liability Projections - The total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits and financial products amounted to RMB 90 billion (USD 12.3 billion) as of December 31, 2024[18] - Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash, are forecasted to increase from RMB 43,983 million in 2023 to RMB 51,093 million in 2024, a growth of 16.0%[29] - The total assets of Ctrip Group are projected to rise from RMB 219,137 million in 2023 to RMB 242,581 million in 2024, indicating a growth of 10.7%[31] - The total liabilities of Ctrip Group are projected to increase from RMB 96,131 million in 2023 to RMB 99,099 million in 2024, a rise of 3.1%[31] Operational Challenges - The company continues to face risks related to economic growth, competition, and operational challenges in the travel industry[23] - The company experienced a decrease in other income/expenses, from RMB 667 million in 2023 to a projected loss of RMB 2,220 million in 2024, indicating potential challenges in this area[36] - The company’s effective tax rate for the year ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 1,750 million, with an expected increase to RMB 2,604 million in 2024, reflecting higher profitability[36]

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Limited reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting resilience in the travel market driven by increased traveler demand for exploration and cultural experiences [2][21] - The company is focused on investing in AI and promoting inbound travel to enhance the overall travel experience and expects continued growth in the industry [2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, net revenue was RMB12.7 billion (US$1.7 billion), a 23% increase year-over-year, but a 20% decrease from the previous quarter due to seasonality [3][21] - Full year 2024 net revenue reached RMB53.3 billion (US$7.3 billion), marking a 20% increase from 2023 [4] - Q4 2024 net income was RMB2.2 billion (US$300 million), up from RMB1.3 billion in Q4 2023 [22][23] - Full year 2024 net income attributable to shareholders was RMB17.1 billion (US$2.3 billion), compared to RMB9.9 billion in 2023 [24] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB5.2 billion (US$709 million), a 33% increase year-over-year [4] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB4.8 billion (US$655 million), a 16% increase from the same period in 2023 [6] - Packaged-tour revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB870 million (US$119 million), a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB702 million (US$96 million), an 11% increase from Q4 2023 [9] Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 31% to RMB2.6 billion (US$362 million) compared to Q4 2023 [11] - Product development expenses for Q4 2024 rose by 16% to RMB3.4 billion (US$465 million) [13] - Sales and marketing expenses for Q4 2024 increased by 45% to RMB3.4 billion (US$462 million) [15] - General and administrative expenses for Q4 2024 increased by 19% to RMB1.0 billion (US$142 million) [17] Cash and Capital Return - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB90.0 billion (US$12.3 billion) [27] - The board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to US$400 million and a cash dividend of approximately US$200 million for the financial year 2024 [28]

Financial Results - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on February 24, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.95 per share, a decrease from $4.00 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $12.32 billion, up from $10.32 billion a year earlier [1] Management Changes - On February 11, Trip.com announced the resignation of Mr. Junjie He, a director nominated by Baidu, and the appointment of Mr. Rong Luo, the executive vice president of Baidu Inc., as his successor [2] - Following this announcement, Trip.com shares increased by 1.4%, closing at $67.02 [2] Analyst Ratings - Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang has a Buy rating with a price target of $80 [4] - Citigroup analyst Brian Gong maintains a Buy rating and raised the price target from $73 to $78 [4] - Barclays analyst Jiong Shao has an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $76 to $84 [4] - TD Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman maintains a Buy rating and raised the price target from $56 to $71 [4] - Mizuho analyst James Lee has an Outperform rating and increased the price target from $65 to $78 [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Trip.com closed at $66.11, reflecting a -0.85% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.43% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares have decreased by 0.28%, lagging behind the Consumer Discretionary sector's gain of 14.82% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Report - Trip.com is scheduled to release its earnings on February 24, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.52 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 7.14% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $1.69 billion, representing a 16.34% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Ratings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Trip.com reflect shifting business dynamics, with upward revisions indicating analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations [3] - Trip.com currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with no changes in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Trip.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 16.71, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 20.97, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6] - The company's PEG ratio is currently 0.6, compared to the Leisure and Recreation Services industry's average PEG ratio of 0.78 [7] Group 5: Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 49, placing it in the top 20% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1 - Trip.com closed at $69.24, reflecting a -0.72% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.01% loss, while the Dow dropped 0.37% and the Nasdaq increased by 0.41% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares gained 5.97%, compared to a 9.91% gain in the Consumer Discretionary sector and a 4.88% gain in the S&P 500 [1] Group 2 - Trip.com is set to release its earnings on February 24, 2025, with projected EPS of $0.52, indicating a 7.14% decline from the same quarter last year, while revenue is expected to reach $1.69 billion, representing a 16.34% growth year-over-year [2] Group 3 - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Trip.com are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, has shown a correlation with stock price performance, with Trip.com currently holding a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [4][5] Group 4 - Trip.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.48, which is lower than the industry average of 20.57, and a PEG ratio of 0.63, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 0.78 [6] Group 5 - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which includes Trip.com, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 37, placing it in the top 15% of over 250 industries, indicating strong performance potential [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in service consumption in China, with a shift from physical goods to services as income levels rise, indicating a large room for growth compared to developed countries [2][22] - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on travel, particularly in cross-border tourism, which is expected to further elevate tourism consumption levels [2][28] - Ctrip's competitive positioning is strengthened by its early entry into the OTA market, extensive resource accumulation, and a robust global expansion strategy [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Service Consumption Rise and Online Travel Growth Potential - The trend from physical to service consumption is evident, with service consumption in China still having significant growth potential compared to developed nations [2][22] - Domestic tourism is rebounding strongly, with 2024 domestic travel expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, a 14.8% increase year-on-year [28] - Cross-border travel is recovering, with 2024 seeing nearly 95 million outbound trips, a 52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong demand for international travel [33][37] 2. Ctrip: Competitive Advantages and Product Strength - Ctrip has a first-mover advantage in the OTA market, with a comprehensive resource base and strong brand recognition [3][59] - The company is leveraging its technological capabilities to enhance user experience and product offerings, focusing on high-end market segments [3][64] - Ctrip's global strategy includes significant investments in overseas markets, particularly through its brands Trip.com and Skyscanner, which are gaining traction in the Asia-Pacific region [4][64] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenues of 528.5 billion, 609.49 billion, and 682.46 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 166.53 billion, 181.65 billion, and 208.52 billion yuan [10][11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% for the online travel market from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing internet penetration and service consumption [56][58]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is set to announce its fourth quarter and full year results for 2024 on February 24, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Financial Announcement - The financial results announcement will take place on February 24, 2025, U.S. Time [1] - A conference call will be hosted by the management team at 7:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on the same day [2] - The conference call will be available via live webcast and will be archived for twelve months [2] Group 2: Participation Details - Participants must pre-register to join the conference call using a provided registration link [2][3] - Upon registration, participants will receive dial-in numbers and a unique access PIN for the call [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [4] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide cost-effective travel bookings and support [4] - Founded in 1999, the company was listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and on HKEX in 2021 [4]

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