该行认为，AI应用的快速进展应能维持投资者对中国AI主题的兴趣，特别是对推动高推理需求的应 用；并视腾讯和阿里为AI应用与基础设施的主要受益者。该行对中国科网行业的公司维持"增持"评级， 首选为腾讯、携程、阿里和快手。 大华继显发表研究报告指出，与美国大型科技公司每年2000亿美元的AI投资相比，包括字节跳动、阿 里、腾讯及百度在内的中国主要科技企业总支出约为600亿美元。该行认为，这表明中国的投资仍处于 相对理性的阶段，预计未来3至6个月内，加速的AI云端收入增长、新模型发布及AI代理部署将进一步 推动货币化。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,457.88, up by 11.32 points or 0.04% as of September 15, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,527.24 and a low of 26,435.55 during the trading session, with an average price of 26,481.40 [1] - The trading volume was 71.35 million shares, indicating active market participation [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.054, reflecting an increase of 1.46% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 644.822, with a slight increase of 0.21% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw a price of HKD 153.679, down by 0.921 compared to its Hong Kong price, despite a 2.32% increase in its latest price [3] - Other notable performances include BYD Company, which rose by 3.44% to HKD 108.100, and Xiaomi Group, which increased by 1.90% to HKD 56.200 [3] Summary of Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings remained stable with no change in its latest price [3] - HSBC Holdings showed a minor increase of 0.19% [3] - Alibaba's stock experienced a decline when compared to its ADR price [3] - The overall performance of major blue-chip stocks was mixed, with some stocks like BYD and Xiaomi showing positive movements while others like China Ping An and AIA Group faced declines [3]

2025中国大企业创新100强排名前10位的企业分别是：华为投资控股有限公司、中兴通讯股份有限公 司、携程集团有限公司、网易股份有限公司、蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司、国家电网有限公司、正大天 晴药业集团股份有限公司、中国信息通信科技集团有限公司、美的集团股份有限公司、京东方科技集团 股份有限公司。华为投资控股有限公司连续五年蝉联榜首。 2025中国大企业创新100强是在2025中国企业500强、2025中国制造业企业500强、2025中国服务业企业 500强的基础上，按照入围门槛为发明专利数100件以上、研发强度0.6%以上、营业收入200亿元以上的 标准进行筛选，同时依据企业申报的研发费用、研发投入强度、拥有发明专利数、拥有专利数、收入利 润率等数据，利用功效系数法计算得到各指标评价值，加权得到各企业综合评价得分值，最后按分值高 低排序产生。 研发费用保持万亿水平，创新质量继续提升。2025创新100强共投入研发费用1.03万亿元，与上年基本 持平；平均研发强度由5.27%上升为5.61%，增加了0.34个百分点；拥有有效专利数、有效发明专利数分 别为172.42万件、89.75万件，发明专利占全部专利的52 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Inbound Tourism Prospects and Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the inbound tourism industry in China, highlighting its significant recovery and growth potential post-pandemic [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Inbound Tourism Growth - In the first half of 2025, the growth rate of foreign tourists reached 30%, with tourism service exports increasing by nearly 70% [1][2]. - By June 2025, the dollar value of tourism exports had reached 160% of pre-pandemic levels, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 50% [1][2]. - Inbound tourism is expected to contribute significantly to China's GDP, with projections of cumulative inbound tourism revenue reaching $2-4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing its GDP contribution from less than 1% to nearly 2% [1][4]. Infrastructure and Technological Improvements - China has enhanced its infrastructure, including transportation and cultural sites, and improved software aspects such as airline connectivity and payment convenience [1][5]. - AI technology is being utilized to reduce language barriers, and the expansion of visa-free entry is expected to further boost inbound tourism [1][5]. Impact on the Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is benefiting from the expansion of international flight capacity and increased revenues, although it faces challenges such as aircraft delivery delays and maintenance capacity issues [1][7]. - Current high capacity utilization rates are leading to a demand structure deterioration, with a recommendation to hold airline stocks until a price inflection point is reached [1][8]. Hotel Industry Opportunities - Inbound tourism is projected to generate approximately $15 billion in revenue for the hotel industry in 2024, increasing to $65 billion by 2034 [2][9]. - High-end hotels are particularly benefiting from foreign tourists, who spend significantly more than domestic travelers [10][11]. - International hotel brands are rapidly expanding in China, with a significant portion of their business focused on high-end offerings [12][13][14]. Retail Sector Benefits - Inbound tourism has a notable positive impact on the retail sector, with Chinese brands gaining prominence and competitive pricing attracting foreign consumers [16]. - The introduction of a "buy and return" policy and the opening of the Hainan Free Trade Port are expected to further stimulate retail growth [16][17]. OTA Platforms and Market Position - Ctrip's inbound tourism business is experiencing triple-digit growth, primarily driven by tourists from the Asia-Pacific region [18][20]. - The company aims to increase its overseas and outbound business to account for half of its revenue in the foreseeable future, indicating significant growth potential [21]. Cathay Pacific's Position - Cathay Pacific is expected to benefit from the growth in inbound tourism, as Hong Kong serves as a major transit hub for international travelers [22][23]. Additional Important Points - The hotel industry's revenue growth is expected to be driven by high-end and ultra-high-end hotels, with a notable resilience in RevPAR compared to budget hotels [10][11]. - The retail sector's growth is supported by favorable policies and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese products to foreign consumers [16][17]. - Ctrip's strategic initiatives, including enhancing its service offerings and marketing efforts, are aimed at improving its profitability and market share in the inbound tourism segment [20][21].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull" is seen as a crucial opportunity for the market to switch between the two halves of the bull market, with the first half driven by financial re-inflation and the second half by real asset re-inflation, leading to a return of blue-chip stocks driven by both valuation and performance [2][11][12] - The recent policy shift from the central government marks a significant turning point for "anti-involution," which is expected to drive inflation recovery and facilitate the transition between the two halves of the bull market [2][11][14] - The improvement in local government finances has provided the central government with the confidence to implement policies effectively, as evidenced by the recovery in land auction activities and the narrowing decline in land transfer revenues [2][11][14] Group 2 - The recent two months have seen a strengthening of policy determination from the top down, alongside an increase in corporate willingness to cooperate from the bottom up, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the execution of "anti-involution" policies [3][28][29] - The central government's intervention has shifted from industry association-led self-regulation to more direct involvement, with significant policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational competition in key sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [3][29][32] - Corporations, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, have begun to respond positively to "anti-involution" initiatives, with major companies committing to production cuts and inventory control to align with industry-wide efforts [3][33][34] Group 3 - Industries that are expected to benefit from "anti-involution" include glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment, identified through various criteria such as state-owned enterprise ratios and industry concentration [3][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price elasticity and tax implications in identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" strategy, with a focus on cyclical resource products [3][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ctrip Group-S (09961) is rated as "Buy" with projected revenues of 62 billion, 71.2 billion, and 80.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and Non-GAAP net profits of 19.4 billion, 22.4 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively [1] - Ctrip is recognized as a leader in the domestic OTA industry, establishing strong competitive barriers in supply chain, user mindset, and global resource integration [1] - The recovery of the domestic tourism market provides stable support for Ctrip's domestic business growth, while inbound and international business is seen as the core driver for long-term performance growth [1] Group 2 - Ctrip has been early in adopting AI technology, starting large model research and development in 2013, and has released its first travel-specific large model product [2] - In 2024, Ctrip plans to launch two AI-driven content products that integrate user search data and real reviews, enhancing user engagement and experience [2] - In Q1 2025, Ctrip's AI applications have saved 20% in labor costs, and AI-assisted content production tools have reduced content creation time from 8.5 minutes to 15 seconds, achieving a content qualification rate of over 98.9% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Trip.com Group (09961) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 62 billion to 80.9 billion yuan and Non-GAAP net profit growth from 19.4 billion to 25.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, highlighting the company's strong competitive advantages in the domestic OTA industry and the recovery of the domestic travel market as key growth drivers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Trip.com Group are estimated at 62 billion yuan in 2025, 71.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 80.9 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach 19.4 billion yuan in 2025, 22.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 25.6 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - Trip.com Group is recognized as a leader in the domestic OTA industry, establishing significant competitive barriers in supply chain management, user perception, and global resource integration [1]. - The recovery of the domestic travel market provides stable support for the company's domestic business growth, while inbound and international business is identified as a core driver for long-term performance growth [1]. Group 3: International Business Performance - The outbound travel market is rapidly recovering, with the gross transaction value (GTV) for outbound travel in Q1 2025 reaching 120% of the same period in 2019, significantly surpassing the industry average [1]. - In Q1 2025, the volume of flight orders recovered to 95%, hotel accommodation orders to 80%, and vacation business orders to over 70% [1]. Group 4: AI Technology Integration - The company began its AI technology layout in 2013, launching its first travel-specific large model product, and plans to release two AI-driven content products in 2024 [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 20% reduction in labor costs through applications like intelligent customer service and guide service monitoring, while AI-assisted content production tools reduced content creation time from 8.5 minutes to 15 seconds, achieving a content qualification rate of over 98.9% [2]. - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance internal efficiency and external user experience, thereby improving user stickiness and profitability [2].

Group 1 - The tourism market in Guangdong is experiencing a surge due to favorable policies and the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with the provincial government implementing 23 measures to enhance inbound tourism [1] - The measures include optimizing visa and customs policies, improving service quality, and promoting marketing efforts to attract more tourists [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has launched platforms to stimulate consumption, and various cities are offering travel vouchers to boost tourism spending [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that consumption policies will enhance tourism demand and increase visitor numbers at attractions, with a notable rise in hotel bookings and travel spending expected during the peak season [2] - The upcoming "Golden Week" from October 1 to 8 will be the longest in history, leading to a significant increase in travel bookings, with a 130% year-on-year rise in travelers during this period [2] - Tuniu reports a notable increase in early bookings for the National Day holiday, particularly for outbound travel, with popular domestic destinations including major cities and tourist spots [3] Group 3 - Flight booking data indicates a 26% year-on-year increase in domestic flight reservations for the holiday period, with over 3.26 million tickets booked [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that China's inbound tourism retail market will triple over the next decade, growing from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion by 2034, driven by an increase in global brand presence and improved shopping experiences [3][4] Group 4 - Leading Chinese consumer electronics brands and companies like Pop Mart are expected to attract tourists and stimulate shopping demand, supported by favorable policies for tax-free shopping [4] - Retailers, shopping centers, and duty-free operators in China are anticipated to benefit significantly from these trends [4] Group 5 - Ctrip Group reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, with growth in hotel business and an increase in market share, leading to an upward revision of its target price [5] - Huazhu Group's second-quarter revenue increased by 4.52% year-on-year, with a significant rise in net profit, indicating strong performance in the hospitality sector [5][6] - China Duty Free Group's earnings forecasts have been adjusted downward due to weak demand, but expectations for improved performance post-Hainan Free Trade Port launch remain [6]

Group 1: Policy and Market Trends - The tourism market in Guangdong is experiencing a surge due to favorable policies and the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with the provincial government issuing 23 measures to enhance inbound tourism [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has launched platforms to promote consumption, and various cities are providing subsidies and vouchers to stimulate tourism spending [1][2] - The upcoming "Golden Week" from October 1 to 8 is expected to see a significant increase in travel bookings, with a 130% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Booking Trends - There is a notable increase in early bookings for the National Day holiday, particularly for outbound travel, with popular domestic destinations including Beijing, Shanghai, and Sanya [3] - Domestic flight bookings have surpassed 3.26 million, reflecting a 26% increase compared to the previous year, while international flight bookings have also risen by 15% [3] Group 3: Market Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that China's inbound tourism retail market will grow over threefold from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion by 2034, increasing its share of the overall tourism retail market from 10% to 25% [3] - The rise of Chinese consumer electronics and brands like Pop Mart is expected to attract tourists and boost shopping demand, supported by favorable policies for tax-free shopping [4] Group 4: Company Performance - Ctrip Group reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, with a growing market share and efficient marketing investments, leading to an upgraded target price [5] - Huazhu Group's second-quarter revenue increased by 4.52% year-on-year, with a significant rise in net profit, indicating strong operational performance [6] - China Duty Free Group's earnings forecasts have been adjusted downward due to weak demand, but future sales are expected to improve with the opening of Hainan Free Trade Port [6]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group's office building is located in the Shanghai Hongqiao Airport Economic Demonstration Zone, showcasing the company's presence in the area [1] - Visitors are exploring the Ctrip Group Exploration Center, indicating active engagement and interest in the company's offerings [3] Group 2 - Bosch Company has an exhibition hall in the Shanghai Hongqiao Airport Economic Demonstration Zone, highlighting its involvement in the region [5] - Visitors are interacting with exhibits at Bosch's exhibition hall, suggesting a focus on innovation and technology [6][7]