Trip.com Group Ltd - Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Market Focus**: Asia Pacific, excluding China and India Key Points Industry and Market Position - Trip.com aims to become the number one player in Asia (excluding China and India) in terms of market share, which is considered a challenging yet achievable target [2] - The company is currently the market leader in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand, and is rapidly gaining market share in Korea and Japan [2] - The APAC travel market is expected to grow, with online penetration increasing, providing a favorable environment for Trip.com [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Trip.com anticipates that by 2030, international and outbound business will contribute to 50% of its revenue [2] - Revenue growth projections indicate a slowdown from over 55% in 2025 to around 25% by 2030 [2] - The company expects year-over-year margin improvements for both domestic and overseas operations, although mixed revenue sources may introduce uncertainty [4] Strategic Initiatives - Trip.com has a structured approach to entering new markets, focusing first on product and localization, followed by performance-based marketing, and then brand marketing once a market share of 2-5% is achieved [3] - The company prioritizes branding and service quality over pricing, believing its pricing is competitive [2] - A significant marketing push has been noted, which has positively impacted overseas expansion efforts [1] Competitive Landscape - Concerns regarding competition from Alibaba's Fliggy are downplayed, with Trip.com’s strong supply chain control seen as a competitive advantage [5] - The company is positioned to achieve profitability levels similar to global peers, potentially exceeding them if the revenue mix favors accommodation [3] Financial Metrics - Current stock price (as of November 25, 2025): US$70.30 - Price target set at US$86.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% [7] - Projected revenue growth from Rmb 53,294 million in FY25 to Rmb 77,641 million in FY27, with a net profit forecast of Rmb 32,156 million in FY25 [31] Risk Factors - Risks include rising competition in the domestic market, uncertainties related to the pandemic, and macroeconomic slowdowns that could affect travel demand [50] - The company is also exposed to foreign exchange headwinds, which could impact profitability [51] Investment Thesis - Trip.com is viewed as uniquely positioned to benefit from multiple growth engines, including domestic travel, outbound travel, and international expansion [39] - The company has announced a US$5 billion share repurchase program, representing over 10% of its market cap at the time of announcement, which is seen as a positive signal for investors [39] Conclusion - Trip.com Group Ltd is strategically positioned for growth in the APAC travel market, with a focus on enhancing its market share and profitability through targeted marketing and operational efficiencies. The company’s financial outlook remains positive, despite potential risks from competition and macroeconomic factors.

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][12]. Core Insights - Domestic growth is stable while overseas growth continues to be high, with the company expanding its user share and influence. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 31.86 billion, RMB 20.76 billion, and RMB 23.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][12]. - A valuation of 23x PE for 2026 is set, leading to a target market capitalization of RMB 476.4 billion, equivalent to HKD 523.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 733 [3][12]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 6.35 billion, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit was RMB 6.13 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged to RMB 19.89 billion, a 194.01% increase, largely due to partial investment profit sales [3][13]. - The company’s revenue growth in transportation accelerated due to peak season and overseas demand, while hotel growth remained in double digits but showed signs of sequential slowdown. Group tours have seen a decline in growth since Q1 2025, attributed to a shift towards independent travel and regional risks [3][13]. Performance Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 30.5% in 2025, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years. The company has maintained stable profit margins despite increased competition in overseas markets [3][12][13]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its investment in Trip, leading to a rise in marketing expenses, which has contributed to rapid growth in overseas markets and an increase in user share [3][13].

| 序号 名称 | | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价 | 较港股升跌 | 较港股升跌% ADR; | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | (0) 00700 | 619.500 | -5.500 | -0.88% | TCEHY | 614.101 | -5.399 | -0.87% | 7 | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 099888 | 154.800 | -3.000 | -1.90% | BABA | 153.233 | -1.567 | -1.01% | 15 | | 3 | 建设银行 | 00939 | 8.210 | -0.010 | -0.12% | CICHY | 8.218 | +0.008 | 0.10% | 2 | | 4 | 汇丰控股 | 00005 | 107.600 | +0.800 | 0.75% | HSBC | 109.799 | +2.199 | 2.04% | 7 | | 5 | 小米集团- ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue growth driven by various business segments and a reduction in sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in profit forecasts and target price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached Rmb 18.4 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for the same period was Rmb 6.1 billion, exceeding expectations due to lower-than-expected sales and marketing expense ratios [1]. - The company raised its 2025 non-GAAP EPS forecast from Rmb 27.8 to Rmb 45.4, primarily due to investment gains from MakeMyTrip [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 18% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 12% [2]. - Packaged-tour revenue saw a 3% increase [2]. - Corporate travel revenue rose by 15% [2]. - Other business revenue surged by 34% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% year-over-year, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up 140% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a Buy rating, reflecting optimism about its leading position in China's online travel industry and potential for market share growth internationally [3]. - The target price has been raised from HK$ 618 to HK$ 657, indicating a 21% upside [1].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持携程集团-S(09961)"增持"评级，目标价733元港 币，国内增速稳健，海外延续高增长趋势，公司投资收益增加，持续扩大用户份额及影响力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 业绩超预期 ①盈利润端表现延续一贯稳定的传统，毛利率同降主要为海外业务占比提升以及结构因素所致;。②从 25年开始，公司明显加大了Trip投入，也使得营销费用基本是按照此前预算消耗。该行认为，这与海外 市场部分目的地竞争对手加大投放有关。但上述营销投放也切实带来了海外Trip高速增长，且用户份额 快速提升的事实。因此，竞争将更多获取的是线下市场线上化的增量份额。③携程已延续多个季度利润 率持续提升，反映出竞争格局好，利润稳定性和确定性高，且海外进展相对顺利。 风险提示 经济波动影响商旅需求，海外竞争，出境目的地风险。 25Q3单季实现营收183.67亿元/+15.52%，经调整EBITDA63.46亿元/+11.73%，经调整营业利润61.34亿 元/+12.2%。因出售部分投资收益，因此归母净利润198.90亿元/+194.01%，经调整归母扣非净利润 191.56亿元/+221.25%。 商旅提 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in interest from major internet companies in user reviews and ratings is driven by the need to find new growth avenues in the service consumption era, as traditional e-commerce growth has plateaued [1][2] - Platforms like JD.com and Gaode are expanding their roles beyond traditional functions to become influential in consumer decision-making, particularly in the restaurant and entertainment sectors [1] - The competition for consumer attention is intensifying, with platforms aiming to create high-frequency touchpoints through review content [1] Industry Dynamics - The service consumption market remains robust, with significant demand for experiences such as dining and entertainment, which are often subjectively evaluated [1] - The introduction of new review platforms is seen as a way for businesses to connect directly with consumers, especially in a high marketing cost environment [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are generally receptive to multiple review channels, appreciating the opportunity to discover new places and potential discounts [2] - There is a growing skepticism towards "water reviews," with consumers preferring authentic experiences over generic positive reviews [2] Trust and Credibility - Trust is fundamental to the review ecosystem, with users relying on genuine feedback to guide their choices, while platforms must maintain impartiality to build credibility [2][3] - The challenge lies in balancing the dual role of platforms as both arbiters of authenticity and profit-driven entities, which can lead to conflicts of interest [2] Future Considerations - New entrants in the review space must focus on rebuilding trust mechanisms rather than merely replicating existing functionalities [3] - The long-term success of review platforms hinges on their ability to foster genuine interactions and maintain consumer trust, as losing credibility can undermine even the most attractive data and interfaces [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, primarily driven by substantial other income from the sale of a stake in MakeMyTrip [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's revenue reached 471 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and net profit was 291 billion, up 93.6% [2]. - The Q3 net profit was 199 billion, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192 billion by 3.6% [2]. - Ctrip's revenue in 2023 doubled to 446 billion, with a revenue index of 125, and is projected to reach 534 billion in 2024 [5]. - From 2019 to Q3 2025, Ctrip's revenue had a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation bookings and transportation ticketing are the two main revenue streams, contributing 80% of total income [8]. - In 2019, accommodation revenue was 140 billion and transportation revenue was 135 billion, together accounting for 77% of total revenue [9]. - In 2023, accommodation and transportation revenue indices reached 128 and 132, respectively, indicating a strong recovery post-pandemic [10]. Cost Management - Ctrip has significantly improved its cost management, reducing total expense ratio by 12 percentage points since 2019 [14]. - In 2023, the gross profit margin increased to 81.8%, while the total expense ratio decreased to 56.3% compared to 2019 [16]. - By Q3 2025, Ctrip achieved a gross profit of 381 billion with a gross profit margin of 81.1% [16]. Competitive Landscape - The travel market is expected to see over 6 billion domestic trips and a total spending of 6.5 trillion by 2025, indicating a competitive environment with numerous players [22]. - Ctrip faces competition from various OTA platforms, traditional travel agencies, and new entrants like JD.com and Meituan [23][24]. - Ctrip's unique advantages include a vast hotel resource network, with over 1.4 million global hotel partnerships and nearly 100% coverage of high-star hotels in China [28]. Strategic Advantages - Ctrip has established a strong market position by acquiring competitors and enhancing its service offerings [25]. - The company operates over 7,000 offline stores across more than 300 cities, providing a significant advantage in customer trust and service [31]. - Ctrip's call center, with approximately 12,000 seats, offers 24/7 support, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty [32].

大型蓝筹股涨跌不一，汇丰控股收报108.109港元，较香港收市涨1.23%；腾讯控股收报622.043港元，较香港收市跌0.47%。 | .HSIADR 恒生指数ADR | | | --- | --- | | 25939.89 ↑ +45.34 +0.18% | 收盘价 11/25 16:00 美东 | | 三月日日 | | | 最高价 26014.67 开盘价 26014.67 成交量 6141.2万 | | | 最低价 25878.31 昨收价 25894.55 | 平均价 25946.49 | | 52周最高 27275.90上 涨 -- | 中国 | | 52周最低 18856.77下 跌 -- | 振 幅 0.53% | | 800000 恒牛指数 25894.55 +178.05 +0.69% | | 智通财经APP获悉，周二，美股三大指数集体收涨。恒生指数ADR上涨，按比例计算，收报25939.89点，较香港收市涨45.34或0.18%。 | 序号 名称 | | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADR代码 | ADR换算价 | 较港股升跌 | 较港股升跌% | ADR | | ...

《2024-2025年跨境旅游消费趋势研究报告》由世界旅游联盟、万事达卡与携程集团联合发布，基于详实消费数据与预订信息，聚焦全球旅游及中国出入境 旅游消费特征，揭示行业新趋势与发展机遇，为行业高质量发展提供参考。 全球旅游市场保持稳健增长态势。2025年上半年全球旅游出行人次同比增长11%，2024年旅游消费金额同比增长3.9%，体验型出游成为核心驱动力，体育 赛事与娱乐演出的拉动效应显著，如2024年棒球世界大赛、欧冠决赛周边跨境消费同比大幅增长。热门目的地呈现区域分化，法国、西班牙、美国位居 2024年国际游客接待量前三，中国内地（含港澳台）接待入境游客约1.32亿人次，排名全球第一；汇率波动对入境游客量有明显影响，目的地货币贬值往往 能带动游客增长。 中国出境游持续升温且呈现多元特征。出境游人次与消费金额稳步增长，周边短途目的地与小众目的地增速领先，签证政策优化、国际航线恢复及文体活 动带动是主要推动力。游客结构分化明显：Z世代依赖数字化工具，偏好"说走就走"的性价比之旅与社交媒体打卡体验；亲子家庭注重安全与教育价值，青 睐免签目的地与主题游线路；银发族偏好长线深度游，重视健康安全与专业讲解服务。消费结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].