弘则研究 问答·国内互联网的一季报怎么看？20250605 摘要 AI 技术正驱动中国互联网公司产品迭代和效率提升，腾讯在游戏和搜索 广告，阿里在电商和云服务均受益，头部公司利润释放速度超收入增速， 凸显投资价值。 中国互联网公司估值集中在 15-18 倍，低于海外 Meta、Google 等公 司，考虑到 AI 带来的边际效应，以及国内企业脉冲式资本开支特点，当 前是投资良机。 国内云业务加速增长，阿里云增速从 13%提升至接近 20%，百度云增 长超 40%。企业内部效率提升和 AI 场景嵌入是主要驱动力，预计二季 度将保持加速态势。 电商竞争格局分化，阿里聚焦品牌，拼多多关注产业链投放，京东侧重 政府补贴电子品类，抖音回归内容导向，各平台策略差异化。 即时零售市场进入第二阶段，美团外卖单量增速放缓但盈利稳定，闪购 业务高速增长。阿里通过饿了么与淘天集团融合，京东补贴收敛，行业 竞争趋于理性。 Q&A 2025 年一季度互联网公司财报的主要特点是什么？ 2025 年一季度互联网公司的财报显示出明显的拐点。自 2024 年四季度以来， 以腾讯和阿里为代表的公司出现了资本开支加速的趋势，尤其是在 AI 领域。 ...

Group 1 - The tourism sector is facing potential challenges due to high inflation and ongoing trade wars, which could impact travel and leisure activities [1] - Observing megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and investment opportunities, although identifying these trends can be complex [1] - The importance of fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is emphasized for uncovering investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The focus has shifted towards marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, indicating a trend in investment analysis [1] - Experience in international development and evaluation of startups and emerging technologies highlights a diverse background in assessing market potential [1] - The integration of personal interests in megatrends and technological developments with fundamental analysis is crucial for investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a transformation, with the AI industry cycle expected to lead the market upward, supported by strong capital inflows and a favorable policy environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.05%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.34%, with Ctrip Group (09961) declining by 2% [1]. - Historical trends indicate that each market cycle has a leading industry, with the current AI industry cycle likely to drive the Hong Kong stock market upward [2]. Group 2: Capital Inflows and Valuation - Significant capital inflows from mainland China are enhancing the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks, with foreign capital gradually improving its allocation towards Chinese assets [2]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has increased from approximately 7.5 times to 10.5 times, aligning with the ten-year average, indicating ongoing valuation recovery [3]. Group 3: IPO Market and Investment Opportunities - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for Hong Kong's IPO market, providing a crucial platform for domestic companies to raise foreign capital [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is evolving into a global technology capital hub, attracting high-quality domestic tech companies and linking them with international capital [4]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Structure - The Hong Kong government has implemented several policies to support the stock market, including lowering stamp duties and optimizing trading mechanisms to enhance liquidity and attractiveness [5]. - The influx of quality core assets into the Hong Kong market is expected to influence trading in the A-share market, potentially shifting pricing power southward [4].

【大河财立方 记者 陈薇】5月26日，由携程集团主办的Envision 2025全球合作伙伴大会在上海举办。携 程集团联合创始人、董事会主席梁建章表示，将设立10亿元旅游创新基金，旨在支持旅游领域的突破性 和创新性发展。 为推动旅游产业发展，促成多项产业合作，赋能创新生态，会上，携程集团宣布启动规模达10亿元人民 币的旅游创新基金。梁建章表示，基金的投入方向，一方面专注于对创新项目进行长期投资，重塑目的 地增长模式；另一方面则将促进跨行业合作，汇聚创新人才共同打造独特的旅行体验。在此基金下，携 程还特别设立旅游创新奖，每年颁发超过1000万元的奖金。 根据国家统计局数据，2024年我国国内旅游人次达56.15亿，创历史新高。入出境旅游市场持续快速复 苏。来自携程集团的数据显示，其2025年第一季度入境游订单量同比增长约100%。 携程持续为全球伙伴赋能，当日与泰国盛泰澜酒店度假村Centara Hotels & Resorts、马来西亚海丰有限 公司 Seafest Hotel Group (Seafest Sdn Bhd)和印尼Archipelago International 宣布战略合作，未来将通过联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is notifying holders of its 1.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 about their right to require the company to repurchase these notes for cash on July 1, 2025, under specific terms outlined in the Indentures [1][2][3] Group 1: Repurchase Right Details - Holders can require the company to repurchase all or a portion of their Exchangeable Notes, with a minimum amount of US$200,000 or integral multiples of US$1,000 [2][3] - The repurchase price will be 100% of the principal amount plus any accrued and unpaid interest up to July 1, 2025 [2] - The total outstanding amount of Exchangeable Notes as of May 27, 2025, is US$500,000,000, which means the total cash purchase price could reach US$500,000,000 if all notes are surrendered [2] Group 2: Timeline and Procedures - The opportunity to exercise the 2025 Repurchase Right starts on May 28, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and ends on June 27, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. [3] - Holders must follow specific transmittal procedures outlined in the 2025 Repurchase Right Notice to exercise their rights [3] - Holders can withdraw previously tendered Exchangeable Notes until June 27, 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [7] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide cost-effective travel solutions [7] - Founded in 1999 and listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and HKEX in 2021, the company continues to expand its reach among travelers worldwide [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]

Group 1: Internet Platform Companies - Tencent has a gross margin of 53% and a net margin of 33.7%, dominating the social media space [1] - Trip.com has a gross margin of 81.76% and a net margin of 32.02%, holding a market share of 65-70% in high-star hotels [1] - Pinduoduo reports a gross margin of 60.9% and a net margin of 28.6%, affected by losses from TEMU [1] - NetEase Games shows a gross margin of 57.14% and a net margin of 28.2% [1] Group 2: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Brands - Leading FMCG brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola have net margins around 20%, with Coca-Cola at 22.6% due to its innovative business model [2] - Second-tier brands like PepsiCo and Nestlé have net margins around 10%, often due to insufficient brand loyalty or high pricing with low scale [3] - Third-tier brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President operate with net margins around 5%, relying on low prices for market share but struggling with brand loyalty and production scale [4] Group 3: Chain Beverage Companies - Top-tier chain beverage companies like Bawang Tea have a net margin of 20.3%, benefiting from brand premium [5] - Starbucks typically has a net margin of around 15%, but faces margin pressure due to increased competition [6] - Second-tier brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have net margins of 17.94% and 16.99%, respectively, leveraging scale advantages [6] Group 4: Hardware Companies - Apple has a gross margin of 46.2% and a net margin of 24%, while Xiaomi has a gross margin of 20.4% and a net margin of 6.44% [8] - NVIDIA shows a gross margin of 78.9% and a net margin of 57%, compared to AMD's gross margin of 50.2% and net margin of 15.3% [8] Group 5: Business Insights - High net margins (above 30%) often indicate monopolistic products, while margins below 15% suggest competitive pressures [9] - Companies with single-digit net margins typically rely on price wars, indicating weak product differentiation and low competitive advantage [14] - Trends in gross and net margins can reveal significant insights about a company's market position, as seen with Tesla and BYD [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]