Table_Title 2024 年 08 月 28 日 携程集团（9961.HK/TCOM.US） 国内业务稳健；竞争优势提升利润前景的确定性 携程 2 季度收入符合预期，经调整净利润/EBITDA 超市场预期 39%/9%。中文站 点酒店预订量同比增 20%，国际 OTA 平台收入同比增 70%。我们维持全年收入 预测，上调 11%全年净利润预测。我们看好公司在竞争优势及敏捷运营背景下 确定性较高的利润前景，目标价调整至 500 港元（9961.HK），维持买入评级。 报告摘要 2 季度利润超预期：净收入 128 亿元，同比/环比增 14%/7%，符合我们及市场预 期，其中住宿预订/交通票收入同比增 20%/1%，对净收入的贡献为 40%/38%，旅 游度假收入同比增 42%，恢复至 2019 年同期的 98%，较 1Q24 恢复程度（84%） 大幅提升。经调整净利润 50 亿元，同比增 45%，超我们/市场预期 44%/39%，经 调整净利润率 39%，同比/环比提升 8 个/5 个百分点。剔除联营公司损益（10 亿 元）的经调整 EBITDA 为 44 亿元，超我们/市场预期 10%/9%，同比增 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Trip.com Group-S (9961 HK) [3][4] Core Views - Trip com s Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by outbound and overseas business growth [2] - Non GAAP net profit reached RMB 5 billion up 45 YoY with a Non GAAP profit margin of 39 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4 4 billion with a margin of 35 [2] - The company s outbound hotel and flight bookings have fully recovered to 100 of 2019 levels surpassing the industry average recovery rate of 70 [2] - Trip com s international OTA platform revenue grew 70 YoY maintaining a high growth rate [2] Business Performance - Q2 2024 net revenue was RMB 12 8 billion up 14 YoY [2] - Accommodation revenue grew 20 YoY to RMB 5 1 billion while transportation revenue increased only 1 YoY to RMB 4 9 billion [2] - Vacation package revenue surged 42 YoY to RMB 1 billion and corporate travel revenue rose 8 YoY to RMB 633 million [2] - Gross margin stood at 81 9 slightly down 0 26 pct YoY [2] - R&D and management expenses decreased 1 8 and increased 6 0 respectively with sales expenses rising 1 2 pct YoY [2] Growth Drivers - Outbound travel recovery and pure overseas markets are key growth drivers [2] - Domestic hotel ADR and average airfare prices declined but Chinese site hotel bookings grew 20 YoY [2] - Trip com s international business continues to expand with Trip com platform revenue growing 70 YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 16 505 billion RMB 19 194 billion and RMB 21 858 billion respectively [3] - Non GAAP EPS for 2024 2026 is estimated at RMB 24 15 RMB 28 08 and RMB 31 98 [3] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2026 are 14x 12x and 10x based on the closing price on August 27 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024 2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted at 17 5 16 4 and 14 5 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates for 2024 2026 are 26 16 and 14 [4] - P E ratios based on adjusted net profit are 14x 12x and 10x for 2024 2026 [4] - P B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 5x and 1 3x for 2024 2026 [4]

携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 二季度经调净利润同比增长 45%，经营效能再次验证 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20,039 | 44,510 | 52,428 | 61,312 | 71,044 | | (+/-%) | 0.1% | 122.1% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 15.9% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 1294 | 13071 | 16420 | 19153 | 22276 | | (+/-%) | -4.6% | 910.1% | 25.6% | 16.6% | 16.3% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.89 | 19.12 | 24.0 ...

Financial Performance - Q2 2024 net revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to RMB 12.8 billion (USD 1.8 billion)[4] - Q2 2024 net profit reached RMB 3.9 billion (USD 535 million), compared to RMB 648 million in the same period of 2023[3] - Q2 2024 adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4.4 billion (USD 611 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%, up from 33% in the same period of 2023[5] - Net revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 24,677 million (USD 3,395 million), up from RMB 20,445 million in the same period in 2023[16] - Gross profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 20,127 million (USD 2,769 million), compared to RMB 16,801 million in 2023[16] - Operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 6,870 million (USD 945 million), up from RMB 5,218 million in 2023[16] - Net profit attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 8,145 million (USD 1,121 million), compared to RMB 4,006 million in 2023[17] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 12.46 (USD 1.71), up from RMB 6.14 in 2023[17] - Net profit for Q2 2024 reached RMB 3,833 million (USD 535 million), a significant increase from RMB 648 million in Q2 2023[18] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 4,436 million (USD 611 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%[18] - Diluted earnings per share (non-GAAP) for Q2 2024 were RMB 7.25 (USD 1.00), up from RMB 5.11 in Q2 2023[19] - Operating profit for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 6,870 million (USD 945 million)[18] - The company reported a net profit (non-GAAP) of RMB 4,985 million (USD 686 million) for Q2 2024, compared to RMB 3,434 million in Q2 2023[18] - The company's net profit (non-GAAP) for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 9,040 million (USD 1,244 million)[18] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue in Q2 2024 increased by 20% year-over-year to RMB 5.1 billion (USD 707 million)[4] - Travel package revenue in Q2 2024 surged by 42% year-over-year to RMB 1 billion (USD 141 million)[4] - Revenue from accommodation booking for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 9,632 million (USD 1,325 million), compared to RMB 7,765 million in 2023[16] - Revenue from transportation ticketing for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 9,871 million (USD 1,358 million), compared to RMB 8,970 million in 2023[16] - Revenue from travel packages for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,908 million (USD 263 million), up from RMB 1,108 million in 2023[16] Travel and Booking Trends - Domestic hotel bookings on the company's Chinese platform increased by approximately 20% year-over-year, driven by rapid growth in outbound and local travel[3] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings fully recovered to 100% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019, significantly surpassing the industry average international flight recovery rate of over 70%[3] - Total revenue from the company's international OTA platform grew by approximately 70% year-over-year[3] Financial Position and Assets - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and time deposits and wealth management products totaled RMB 99 billion (USD 13.6 billion)[6] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash increased from RMB43.983 billion ($7.094 billion) as of December 31, 2023 to RMB51.553 billion ($7.094 billion) as of June 30, 2024[14] - Total current assets grew from RMB88.732 billion ($16.725 billion) to RMB121.539 billion ($16.725 billion) over the same period[14] - Short-term investments increased from RMB11.410 billion ($1.776 billion) to RMB12.907 billion ($1.776 billion) as of June 30, 2024[14] - Prepaid expenses and other current assets rose from RMB15.591 billion ($2.596 billion) to RMB18.863 billion ($2.596 billion)[14] - Total assets expanded from RMB219.137 billion ($34.102 billion) to RMB247.823 billion ($34.102 billion) over the six-month period[14] - Total liabilities increased from RMB 96,131 million in 2023 to RMB 116,431 million in 2024, with current liabilities rising from RMB 72,411 million to RMB 92,116 million[15] - Total equity attributable to Trip.com Group Limited increased from RMB 122,184 million in 2023 to RMB 130,500 million in 2024[15] Debt and Financing - The company issued $1.5 billion in convertible senior notes due in 2029, including an additional $200 million due to the full exercise of the initial purchasers' option[7] - The convertible notes bear an annual interest rate of 0.75% and will be settled in cash upon conversion[7] - Concurrent with the notes offering, the company repurchased approximately 6 million ADSs for a total consideration of $300 million[8] - Interest expenses for the six months ending June 30, 2024, were RMB 1,013 million (USD 139 million)[18] Accounting and Reporting - The company provides non-GAAP financial measures to supplement GAAP financial statements, including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin[11] - Revenue from product development under IFRS for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 6,155 million[22] - Sales and marketing expenses under IFRS for the six months ending June 30, 2024, were RMB 5,156 million[22] - Product R&D expenses under US GAAP were RMB 5,627 million, adjusted to RMB 5,595 million under IFRS[23] - Sales and marketing expenses under US GAAP were RMB 4,110 million, adjusted to RMB 4,104 million under IFRS[23] - Operating profit under US GAAP was RMB 5,218 million, adjusted to RMB 5,307 million under IFRS[23] - Net profit under US GAAP was RMB 4,022 million, adjusted to RMB 4,043 million under IFRS[23] - Total assets under US GAAP were RMB 247,823 million, adjusted to RMB 247,492 million under IFRS[24] - Total liabilities under US GAAP were RMB 116,431 million, adjusted to RMB 115,527 million under IFRS[24] - Total equity under US GAAP was RMB 131,392 million, adjusted to RMB 131,965 million under IFRS[24] - Intangible assets and land use rights under US GAAP were RMB 12,551 million, adjusted to RMB 12,623 million under IFRS[24] - Property, plant, and equipment under US GAAP were RMB 5,083 million, adjusted to RMB 4,932 million under IFRS[24] - Investments under US GAAP were RMB 45,392 million, adjusted to RMB 42,792 million under IFRS[24] - Available-for-sale debt investments are measured at fair value under US GAAP, with unrealized gains or losses reflected in "Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income" in the consolidated balance sheet[27] - Under IFRS, certain debt investments are classified as financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss due to failing the SPPI test[27] - Under US GAAP, preferred stock investments require fair value adjustments through income or other comprehensive income, which is not applicable under IFRS[28] - Convertible bonds are measured at amortized cost under US GAAP, with any difference between initial carrying amount and repayment amount recognized as interest expense using the effective interest method[28] - Under IFRS, convertible bonds are designated as measured at fair value with changes recognized in profit or loss, except for credit risk changes which are recognized in other comprehensive income[28] - Software is recorded under property, plant, and equipment under US GAAP[28] - Under IFRS, software is reported under intangible assets, requiring reclassification from property, plant, and equipment[28] Corporate Events - The company will hold an earnings conference call on August 26, 2024, at 8:00 PM Eastern Time (August 27, 8:00 AM Hong Kong Time)[9] Shareholder Information - Weighted average diluted shares outstanding (non-GAAP) for Q2 2024 were 687,977,626[19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group [4][64]. Core Views - Concerns in the market regarding potential pressure on hotel and flight prices in 2024 and increased competition from local players like Meituan and Douyin are addressed. However, the report argues that Trip.com has high user stickiness, strong consumer spending power, and a deep inventory supply, which positions it well against other OTA platforms [2][9]. - The recovery of outbound tourism is highlighted as a significant growth driver, with Trip.com expected to outperform the industry in this segment due to its localized service advantages and low commission rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Trip.com Group is a leading online travel agency (OTA) that offers a comprehensive range of travel services globally, including over 1.2 million accommodation options and partnerships with more than 480 airlines [14][15]. - The company has established a robust business matrix that includes accommodation booking, transportation ticketing, vacation services, and business travel management [20][21]. Industry Analysis - The tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with domestic travel expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The report anticipates that outbound travel will recover to over 80% of 2019 levels [25][26]. - The online travel market's penetration is projected to increase, with online sales expected to reach 76% by 2027 [29][30]. Business Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for Trip.com are set at 52.5 billion, 60.3 billion, and 68.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 14.8%, and 13.7% [3][62]. - The report predicts net profit for the same years to be 12.285 billion, 14.879 billion, and 17.164 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 23.87%, 21.12%, and 15.36% [3][62]. Competitive Positioning - Trip.com is positioned favorably against competitors like Booking and Expedia due to its lower commission rates and a diversified service offering that includes cross-selling opportunities [57][58]. - The company has a strong user base that is less price-sensitive, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [39][42]. Growth Drivers - The recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of overseas business are identified as key growth drivers, with Trip.com leveraging its international presence and partnerships to enhance service offerings [54][60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a well-developed membership system that contributes to customer loyalty and higher spending [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Trip.com Group-S (09961 HK) with a "Recommend" rating and a target price of HK$506 [1] Core Views - Trip com is a leading one-stop online travel platform in China with a strong domestic market position and high growth potential in international markets [1] - The company's domestic business is stable with a competitive advantage in high-income high-consumption and sticky users while its international business is expected to drive future growth [1][7] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 15 3% 14 0% and 13 5% for 2024-2026 with non-GAAP net profit growth of 20 6% 15 6% and 13 5% respectively [1][8] Business Model and Industry Overview - Online travel platforms (OTAs) are the optimal business model in the travel industry with leading players like Booking and Airbnb achieving high operation margins [13] - The OTA industry in China has grown rapidly with a CAGR of 34 4% from 2013-2019 and is expected to reach RMB2 53 trillion in 2023 [16] - The industry is divided into three main segments: online transportation online accommodation and online vacation with transportation having the highest online penetration rate [18] Domestic Market - Trip com has a strong domestic market position with a deep supply chain and high-quality user base [1][7] - The company has a competitive advantage in high-star hotels and a strong "air + hotel" integrated service offering [47] - Trip com is expanding its user base by targeting younger users and lower-tier cities while also enhancing its content-to-transaction conversion capabilities [51][53] International Market - China's outbound travel penetration rate is relatively low at 12% in 2019 compared to the global average of 26% indicating significant growth potential [1][59] - Trip com is focusing on outbound travel and its overseas platforms (Skyscanner and Trip com) to drive international growth [1][7] - The company's overseas strategy includes leveraging its brand user acquisition and low commission rates to compete with established players like Booking and Expedia [1][7] Financial Performance - Trip com's revenue and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB44 51 billion and RMB13 07 billion in 2023 representing a 24 8% and 100 3% increase compared to 2019 [1][30] - The company's gross margin improved to 81 8% in 2023 while its sales expense ratio decreased to 20 7% reflecting improved operational efficiency [32] Valuation and Forecast - The report values Trip com at 20x 2024 PE with a target market cap of HK$345 7 billion representing a 31% upside from the current price [1][8] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14 3% from 2024-2026 with non-GAAP net profit growing at a CAGR of 16 4% over the same period [8]

证券研究报告 | 2024年06月06日 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 拟发行 13 亿美元可转换优先票据，积极拓展海外业务  公司研究·公司快评  社会服务·旅游及景区  投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 曾光 0755-82150809 zengguang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980511040003 证券分析师： 钟潇 0755-82132098 zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980513100003 证券分析师： 张鲁 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120002 联系人： 杨玉莹 0755-81982942 yangyuying@guosen.com.cn 事项： 公司公告：携程集团拟发售13亿美元以现金结算的可转换优先票据（+2亿美元票据选择权），预期6月 7日或前后完成发售。票据年利率为0.75%，每半年付息，2029年6月到期。初始转换率为每1000美元票 据本金额兑换15.0462股美国存托股，即每股约66.46美元，行权时间为到期前最后50个交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Trip.com Group (9961 HK) [1] Core Views - Trip com Group is entering a new growth cycle by integrating domestic and international travel services aiming to become the leading online travel platform in Asia and the leading online transportation ticketing platform globally [2][4] - The company has demonstrated strong profitability post the 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 compensatory demand period with a GMV of $160 billion in 2023 surpassing Booking's $150 6 billion [4] - The online travel industry has seen significant improvements in its operating ecosystem with increased online penetration and a shift towards more personalized and diversified travel demands [4] Summary by Sections Trip com Group Overview - Trip com Group has been a leader in the online travel industry for 25 years with a GMV of $160 billion in 2023 making it the largest globally [4] - The company has shown strong recovery in domestic travel with a 28% increase in accommodation bookings and a 41% increase in transportation bookings compared to 2019 [10] - The company's non GAAP net profit in 2023 was 3 0 times that of Booking compared to 4 7 times in 2019 indicating improved operational efficiency [4] Industry Trends - The online travel industry has seen a significant shift towards online penetration with OTA platforms playing a crucial role in meeting the demand for personalized and diversified travel experiences [4] - The industry is moving towards a more stable competitive landscape with players focusing on profitability and efficiency [13] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the online travel industry has stabilized with players focusing on profitability and efficiency [13] - The key competitive factors include supply chain integration fulfillment efficiency and the ability to adapt to changing consumer demands [51] Growth Prospects - Trip com Group is well positioned to benefit from the recovery of outbound travel with an estimated 54% market share in online outbound travel [5] - The company's Trip com platform is expected to grow at a mid double digit rate over the next 3 5 years with significant potential in the Asian market [5] - The company's international expansion is supported by its strong supply chain and customer service system which has been built over a decade [73] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a positive outlook on Trip com Group with a target valuation of 20 22x for 2024 corresponding to a market cap of RMB 3092 3401 billion representing a 22% 35% upside from the current level [5] - The company's strong supply chain and fulfillment system along with its ability to optimize marketing efficiency and labor productivity are key factors supporting its growth [5]

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月31日 携 程 集 团 （ ） 公 司深 度 二 -S 9961.HK 打 通 国 内 外 出 行 闭 环 ， 龙 头 迈 向 全 新 发 展 周 期 公司研究 · 深度报告 社会服务 ·旅游及景区 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [【Table_广Title] 发商社&海外】携程网(TCOM)/ 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-美股/买入-H 当前价格 57.05美元/440.00港元 携程集团-S(09961.HK) 合理价值 63.53美元/495.29港元 前次评级 买入/买入 利润超预期，海外业务持续高双位数增长 报告日期 2024-05-21 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 携程集团发布 1Q24 业绩公告。公司 1Q24 实现收入 119.2 亿元，同 60% 携程网 纳斯达克 40% 比增长 29%；毛利率同比下降 1.0pps 至 81.2%，non-GAAP 归母净 20% 利润为40.6亿元，non-GAAP归母净利润率34%。 0% -20% ⚫ 根据公司1Q24财报，（1）1Q24住宿业务收入同比增长29%至45.0 -40% 亿元，收入占比38%。（2）1Q24交通业务收入同比增长20%至 -60% 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 ...