长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 杨蝶 氟化工龙头巨化股份（600160.SH）业绩逆势复苏。 4月24日晚间，巨化股份发布2024年年度报告，公司全年实现营业收入244.62亿元，同比增长18.43%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润（以下简称"净利润"）19.6亿元，同比增长107.69%。 长江商报记者注意到，作为国内唯一拥有第一至四代含氟制冷剂系列产品的企业，巨化股份竞争优势明 显。2024年，化工行业规模以上企业利润总额同比下降8.6%，而同处该行业的巨化股份业绩却逆势大 幅增长。 巨化股份将业绩增长主要归因于，公司第二、三代氟制冷剂价格合理性回归上行。 业绩稳健之下，巨化股份继续稳定分红。公司宣布，2024年拟派发现金红利6.21亿元。算上此次分红， 公司自1998年上市以来，累计派现达59.73亿元。 对此，巨化股份称，主要原因系公司第二、三代氟制冷剂在生产配额制下，供需格局、竞争格局、竞争 秩序优化，下游需求改善等，产品价格合理性回归上行，涨幅较大，盈利大幅增长。 巨化股份表示，预计2025年公司氟制冷剂产品实际均价仍将上移，盈利水平及盈利比重进一步提升。 根据此前公布的2025年一季度业绩预告，公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the chemical industry, particularly in the compound fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while recommending "Hold" for others [17]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in the compound fertilizer, metal chromium, and niche pesticide markets. The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued high-growth companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive performance of listed companies in Q1 2025, particularly in the compound fertilizer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Xin Yang Feng, Stanley, and Yun Tu Holdings for investment opportunities [3][4]. - The report notes that metal chromium prices have surged to 75,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7,500 CNY/ton, driven by rising demand from the stainless steel sector and new military spending in Europe [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with stable trading volumes for seasonal crop pesticides. Specific products like Acetochlor and Avermectin are seeing price increases, with recommendations for companies like Xian Da and Li Min [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions in the chemical sector indicate a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term [4][6]. - The chemical industry PPI data shows a gradual recovery from negative values, with March 2025 PPI at -2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [6][8]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Sector - The report highlights that the domestic urea price is currently at 1,800 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.6%. The compound fertilizer sector is experiencing a decrease in operating rates, leading to increased inventory levels [10]. - The pesticide market is witnessing a seasonal peak, with stable trading volumes and price adjustments in various pesticide products, including a price increase for Pyrazole [10][19]. Chemical Products Pricing and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed pricing data for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in prices for PTA, MEG, and PVC, with specific attention to the impact of raw material costs and market demand [10][11][12]. - The report notes that the market for fluorinated chemicals is facing supply constraints due to mining restrictions, while the demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments [12][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and Yun Tianhua in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [17][18]. - Companies in the tire and fluorochemical sectors are also highlighted for their potential benefits from recovering domestic demand and cost reductions [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 24.46 billion yuan (YoY +18%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion yuan (YoY +108%) [8] - The significant growth in the refrigerant business, driven by rising prices, has positively impacted profitability, outweighing the negative effects from non-refrigerant segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from an improved industry landscape in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 4.16 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.54 yuan [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 20.66 billion yuan - 2024: 24.46 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.86 billion yuan - 2026E: 30.82 billion yuan - 2027E: 33.82 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly: - 2023: 944 million yuan - 2024: 1.96 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.16 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.44 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.12 billion yuan - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 32.9% by 2027 [2][10] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 25.15 yuan, with a market capitalization of 67.90 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 72 for 2023, decreasing to 10 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][10] Business Performance Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a refrigerant sales volume of 353,000 tons (YoY +23%) and an average selling price of 26,765 yuan/ton (YoY +33%) [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per share, totaling 621 million yuan, which is 31.69% of the net profit for the period [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising prices of second and third-generation refrigerants due to a favorable supply-demand dynamic [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a declining trend in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4.1% in Q1 2025, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a historical low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted, with a notable decrease in the concentration of holdings in leading companies within the chemical sector. The top ten heavyweights' market capitalization share fell from 46.2% in Q4 2024 to 41.9% in Q1 2025 [1]. - Attention has been primarily directed towards the civil explosives and fluorochemical sectors in Q1 2025, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Guangdong Hongda and Zhenhua Co., while reductions were seen in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][3]. - The report highlights a strong interest in sectors with price increase potential, such as fluorochemicals, chromium salts, and pesticides, alongside improving supply-demand dynamics in the civil explosives sector [3]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trajectory since Q2 2022, with the market capitalization share decreasing to 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking a significant decline from previous years [11][12]. Individual Stock Movements - Key stocks that saw increased holdings include Guangdong Hongda, Zhenhua Co., and Saint Spring Group, while major reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][16]. - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the chemical sector accounted for 52.2% of total holdings, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [11][15]. Sector Performance - The report identifies the top five sectors by fund holdings in Q1 2025 as other chemical products (13.36 billion), polyurethane (5.91 billion), tires (5.18 billion), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (4.96 billion), and other chemical raw materials (3.85 billion) [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with price increase potential and strong domestic demand, particularly civil explosives, while also highlighting opportunities in new materials such as AI materials [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current price of 24.74 CNY [1] Core Views - The company has significantly increased its profits due to the upward cycle of refrigerants, with a 2024 revenue of 24.462 billion CNY, an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.960 billion CNY, a 107.69% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The supply-demand structure of fluorinated refrigerants has improved, leading to sustained price increases, which is a major driver of the company's profit growth [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.462 billion CNY, up 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.960 billion CNY, up 107.69% year-on-year [3][4] - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.3 CNY per 10 shares (tax included) [3] Business Segments - The fluorochemical raw materials segment saw a production increase of 6.22% year-on-year, while external sales decreased by 4.59%. The average monthly sales price increased by 23.19%, leading to a total revenue increase of 17.54% [4] - The refrigerant segment experienced a production and sales volume increase of 21.12% and 22.61% respectively, with a revenue of 9.447 billion CNY, a 62.69% increase year-on-year [5] - The fluorinated fine chemicals segment saw a dramatic increase in production and sales volume by 148.99% and 254.95% respectively, with a revenue increase of 99.48% [6] Market Outlook - The company holds the largest production quotas for HCFC-22 and HFCs in the country, with 3.89 million tons and 299,800 tons respectively, which is 26.10% and 39.6% of the national total [4] - The refrigerant industry is expected to continue benefiting from strong domestic demand in air conditioning and automotive sectors, supported by government subsidies [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.764 billion CNY in 2025, 3.323 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.815 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.2, 20.1, and 17.5 [7][9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 优于大市 2024 年业绩快速增长，制冷剂价格持续提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 基础化工·化学制品 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：张歆钰 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 021-60375408 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980524080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 24.74 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 66792/66792 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 26.72/14.25 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 558.94 百万元 | 市场走势 相关研究报告 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大 幅增长》 ——2025-04-08 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-增资控股甘肃巨化新材料，夯实国内 氟化工龙头地位》 — ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, driven by the recovery in the refrigerant market, and maintains a "buy" rating due to positive outlooks for future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 reached 24.5 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.96 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 108%, and a non-recurring profit of 1.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 131% increase [1]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 700 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 257% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 66% [1]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a 23% year-over-year increase in external sales volume to 353,000 tons, primarily due to the consolidation of Feiyuan Chemical and rising prices under quota systems, with average prices increasing by 33% to 26,800 yuan per ton [2]. - The fluoropolymer segment experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 46,000 tons, but faced price pressure, with average prices declining by 15% to 38,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The fine fluorochemical segment reported a remarkable 255% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 5,000 tons, with revenue growing by 99% to 280 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive, alongside tight supply conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [3]. - The company is set to benefit from new projects, including FEP, Juxin cooling liquids, and fourth-generation refrigerants, which are anticipated to enhance integrated and scale advantages [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 5.3 billion yuan, and 6.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting increases of 8% and 14% for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 30.4 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, up from a previous target of 28.2 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juhua Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in its 2024 annual performance, driven primarily by the strong demand and price increase of refrigerants, despite challenges in other chemical product segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.462 billion yuan, an increase of 18.43% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.903 billion yuan, reflecting a 131.40% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 6.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 was 0.702 billion yuan, up 256.83% year-on-year and 65.81% quarter-on-quarter [1] Product Performance - The refrigerant products experienced both volume and price increases, contributing to the overall performance growth [2] - The average selling price of refrigerants was 26,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.69% year-on-year, with external sales volume reaching 353,000 tons, up 22.61% year-on-year [2] - Non-refrigerant chemical products faced a challenging market with declining prices, impacting profitability [2] Market Trends - The upward trend in refrigerant prices is expected to continue into 2025 due to supply constraints and improved industry dynamics [3] - The domestic market prices for key refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 9.1%, 12.8%, 7.1%, and 10.6% respectively since January 2, 2025 [3] - Export prices for R32 refrigerant have shown consistency, indicating a strengthening of the company's market position [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned favorably within the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from the upward cycle of refrigerant prices and cost advantages from its integrated operations [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 4.904 billion, 5.760 billion, and 6.416 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 150.25%, 17.46%, and 11.40% [4] - The company maintains a strong recommendation for investment based on its competitive positioning and growth potential in the refrigerant market [4]

推荐（维持） 现价：24.74 元 主要数据 公 司 报 告 有色与新材料 2025 年 4 月 25 日 巨化股份(600160.SH) 制冷剂上行周期，公司利润显著增厚 | 行业 | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.jhgf .com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 巨化集团 / 52.70% | | 实际控制人 | 浙江省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2700 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2700 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 668 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 668 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 31.25 | 行情走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 24-01 24-05 24-09 25-01 巨化股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《巨化股份(600160.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：氟化 工一 体化龙头，HFCs配额全国第一》2024-05-23 《巨化股份(600160.SH)公司2024年半年报点 评 ：完 成淄博飞源吸收合并，氟制 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 优于大市 2024 年业绩快速增长，制冷剂价格持续提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 基础化工·化学制品 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：张歆钰 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 021-60375408 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980524080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 24.74 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 66792/66792 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 26.72/14.25 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 558.94 百万元 | 市场走势 相关研究报告 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大 幅增长》 ——2025-04-08 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-增资控股甘肃巨化新材料，夯实国内 氟化工龙头地位》 — ...