房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月30日 600325.SH 华发股份 买入 营收规模稳步增长；经营性现金流明显优化 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 6.27 摘要：华发股份公布2023年年报，公司实现营业总收入721.4亿元，同比增长19.4%； 归母净利润18.4亿元，同比下降29.6%。公司拟每10股派发现金股息3.7元（含税）， 板块评级:强于大市 分红率为55.41%。  公司营收规模稳步增长，业绩承压，待结算资源充沛。2023年公司营收同比增长19.4%，归母净利润同比 下降29.6%，主要是因为：1）结算利润率下滑，公司毛利率为18.1%，同比下降2.0个百分点。2）投资 收益同比大幅下降81.7%至2.8亿元。3）受市场环境影响，公司计提资产减值损失15.9亿元（2022年为 股价表现 7.6亿元）。4）合联营项目结算利润提升，少数股东损益/净利润同比小幅提升0.5个百分点至47.0%。2023 年公司净利率和归母净利润率分别为4.8%和2.5%，同比分别下降了3.3、1.8个百分点。三费率明显改善， 同比下降0.7个百分点至5.7%，其中职工薪酬下降，管理费用同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected growth in stock price over the next 6-12 months exceeding 15% [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2024, with revenue at 7.0 billion RMB, down 41.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.35 billion RMB, down 35.3% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a decrease in the delivery and turnover of real estate projects, while net profit decline was slightly mitigated by an increase in investment income from joint ventures [1]. - The company is focusing on acquiring land in first-tier cities, having secured two plots in Shanghai and Guangzhou, totaling a construction area of 37,000 square meters [1]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as quality projects are delivered, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 2.01 billion RMB, 2.26 billion RMB, and 2.56 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 9.4%, 12.2%, and 13.5% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q1 2024 revenue decreased by 41.5% year-on-year to 7.0 billion RMB, while net profit fell by 35.3% to 0.35 billion RMB [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 15.09%, down 2.03 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Sales and Land Acquisition - Sales amount in Q1 2024 was 20.4 billion RMB, down 59% year-on-year, with a sales area of 685,000 square meters, also down 58% [1]. - The company acquired two land parcels in first-tier cities, focusing on strategic locations [1]. Construction Activity - New construction area in Q1 2024 was 400,000 square meters, up 164% year-on-year, while completed area was 1.29 million square meters, up 94% [1]. - As of March 2024, the total area under construction was 11.42 million square meters, a decrease of 470,000 square meters from the end of 2023 [1]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 79.29 billion RMB, 84.68 billion RMB, and 90.50 billion RMB, with growth rates of 9.91%, 6.79%, and 6.87% respectively [3]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.01 billion RMB, 2.26 billion RMB, and 2.56 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 9.43%, 12.18%, and 13.50% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, with revenue at 7 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 35.3% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to a decrease in the scale of real estate project deliveries compared to the same period last year [4][5] - Despite the revenue drop, the company has a relatively sufficient amount of unrecognized resources, with contract liabilities at 97.32 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year. The controlling shareholder has shown confidence in the company's future by increasing its stake by 31.68 million shares, representing 1.15% of the total share capital, with a total investment of 290 million yuan [5] - The company has focused its investments, with new construction area increasing by 162.8% year-on-year to 404,000 square meters in Q1 2024. The total area under construction at the end of the quarter was 11.425 million square meters [5] Financial Summary - For the years 2024 to 2026, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.79 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.3x, 8.7x, and 8.2x [5][6] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 74.309 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. The net profit for the same year is projected to be 1.936 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [6][8] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 71.4%, indicating a high level of debt relative to its assets [2][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 72.145 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.6% to 1.84 billion yuan, which was in line with expectations [2][3] - The revenue growth was steady, but the performance was under pressure due to several factors, including a decline in gross margin by 2.3 percentage points to 18.0%, an increase in sales expenses by 26.6%, and a rise in the proportion of minority shareholders' profit [2][3] - The company has maintained its leading position in Zhuhai and has entered the "trillion" sales club for four consecutive years, achieving a sales amount of 125.99 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3] - The company has focused on acquiring quality land reserves through various methods, with an investment amount of 68.24 billion yuan in 2023, significantly up from 46.5 billion yuan in 2022, and has targeted core cities [3] - Financing costs have been on a downward trend, with the average financing cost in 2023 at 5.5%, a decrease of 28 basis points year-on-year, supported by the controlling shareholder [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.97 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 2.24 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.72 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.81 yuan, with P/E ratios of 8.7X, 8.2X, and 7.7X respectively [4] - The company is expected to benefit from its state-owned shareholder advantage and steady sales performance, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

股票代码：600325 股票简称：华发股份 公告编号：2024-027 珠海华发实业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年第一季度经营情况简报 本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内 容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露第 一号——房地产》要求，公司现将 2024 年第一季度房地产业务主要经营数据披 露如下： 一、销售情况 截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日，公司实现销售金额 203.7 亿元，较去年同期下降 59%；销售面积 68.5 万平方米，较去年同期下降 58%。 二、新增土地项目情况 2024 年 1-3 月，公司新增土地项目如下： 1.上海闵行区七宝镇古美 17-01、21-01 项目：地块东至星中路，西至智联路， 北至宝兰路。土地出让面积为 31,521 平方米，用地性质住宅用地，容积率 2.00。 公司拥有该项目 51%权益。 2.广州海珠区琶洲西区 9 亩项目：地块位于海珠区琶洲西区。土地出让面积 为 5,706 平方米，用地性质为住宅用地，容积率 5.26。公司拥有该项目 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2024 was ¥7,000,110,720.18, representing a decrease of 41.46% compared to the same period last year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥348,976,942.54, down 35.34% year-on-year[4] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both ¥0.13, a decrease of 45.83% year-on-year[4] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was ¥431,851,068.01, a decline of 45.8% from ¥795,766,901.69 in Q1 2023[21] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of ¥461,030,592.04 for Q1 2024, down from ¥877,393,121.87 in Q1 2023[22] - The net profit for Q1 2024 was a loss of ¥204,976,203.72, compared to a loss of ¥256,381,775.65 in Q1 2023, showing an improvement of 20.0%[32] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was ¥576,564,117.20, reflecting a significant decline of 94.74% compared to the previous year[4] - In Q1 2024, the company reported cash inflows from operating activities of CNY 13.64 billion, a decrease of 44.5% compared to CNY 24.50 billion in Q1 2023[23] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was significantly impacted by a decrease in sales revenue, which totaled CNY 11.22 billion in Q1 2024, down from CNY 22.01 billion in Q1 2023[23] - The cash flow from operating activities showed a net outflow of ¥2,223,167,983.90 in Q1 2024, compared to an inflow of ¥3,058,335,252.17 in Q1 2023[33] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 576.56 million, down from CNY 10.97 billion in the same period last year, indicating a significant decline[25] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥459,715,696,599.04, an increase of 1.77% from the end of the previous year[5] - The company's total assets amounted to approximately ¥459.72 billion, an increase from ¥451.70 billion as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of about 1.8%[15] - Total liabilities as of Q1 2024 amounted to ¥328,079,515,127.63, an increase from ¥319,999,856,599.69 in the previous year[18] - The total liabilities increased to ¥152,970,466,167.40 in Q1 2024 from ¥140,442,116,745.53 in Q1 2023, representing an increase of 8.9%[29] - The total liabilities of the company as of March 31, 2024, were CNY 128.69 billion, compared to CNY 115.45 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting an increase in financial obligations[28] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 40,897[9] - The largest shareholder, Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd., held 26.34% of the shares, totaling 724,967,983 shares[9] - Total equity attributable to shareholders was ¥22,435,712,639.65, up from ¥22,176,545,773.56 year-over-year[18] - The total equity decreased to ¥21,808,629,687.52 in Q1 2024 from ¥22,012,917,173.62 in Q1 2023, a decline of 0.9%[29] Operational Highlights - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a reduced scale of real estate project deliveries compared to the same period last year[7] - The company successfully acquired three properties through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhuhai Huaxin Investment Development Co., Ltd., enhancing its operational capabilities[12] - The company plans to sign a management contract for a project involving scattered properties, indicating a strategic move towards expanding its real estate management portfolio[13] Investment and Expenses - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 were ¥11,604,502.04, slightly up from ¥10,260,358.81 in Q1 2023[19] - The company reported financial expenses of ¥542,895,253.41 in Q1 2024, an increase from ¥431,254,417.21 in Q1 2023[30] - The investment income for Q1 2024 was ¥174,450,849.84, significantly higher than ¥32,317,424.17 in Q1 2023, marking an increase of 441.5%[31]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年04月28日 华发股份（600325.SH） 计提减值出清包袱，投拓聚焦销售稳健 事件：4月26日，公司发布2023年业绩公告。 买入（维持） 股票信息 营收逆势增长近 20%，减值计提致归母净利润有所下降。公司 2023 年实现 营业总收入 721.4亿元，同比增长 19.4%（同比经调，下同）；实现归母净利 行业 房地产开发 润 18.4 亿元，同比减少 29.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.7 亿元，同比减少 前次评级 买入 63.8%。业绩下滑主要因：（1）受房地产市场下行环境影响，结转毛利率下 4月26日收盘价(元) 6.26 滑至 18.1%；（2）2023 年计提资产及信用减值损失 16.4 亿元，较上年同期 总市值(百万元) 17,228.47 增加 8.0亿元。扣非归母净利润大幅下滑，主要是当期存货/固定资产转到投资 总股本(百万股) 2,752.15 性房地产而产生的公允价值变动损益为 9.77 亿元，较上年 1.65 亿元大幅增 其中自由流通股(%) 76.93 加，对扣非后利润产生较大影响。展望未来，一方面公司期末预收账款覆盖 30日日均成交量( ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃dyCompany＃ 华发股份 （ 600325 ） investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tionC）h 000009 ＃title＃ ange＃ 2023年年报点评：业绩有所承压，分红率大幅提升，销售排名更进一步 ＃createTime1＃ 2024年04月28日 投资要点 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ ＃sum2m0a2r3y＃年营收快增，归母净利润有所下降，分红率大幅提高。2023年全年公 司实现营业收入721.45亿元，同比增长19.4%，年底预收楼款达1008.18亿 日期 2024/4/26 元，较年初增长15.66%，待结算资源充沛；实现归母净利润18.38亿元，同 收盘价（元） 6.26 比减少29.6%。加权平均净资产收益率9.7%，同比下降4.5个百分点。营收 总股本（百万股） 2752 增长而归母净利润下降的主因为：1）毛利率下降：2023年公司销售毛利率 流通股本（百万股） 2571 为18.1%，同比下降2.1个百分点；2）投资净收益下降：2023年公司实现投 净资产（百万元） 22 ...

上 市 公 司 房地产 2024 年04月 27 日 华发股份 (600325) 公 司 研 究 ——业绩低于预期，销售稳步增长，高分红高股息 / 公 司 点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 评 买入 投资要点： （维持）  营收稳步增长，业绩回落、略低于预期，分红率升至5%、对应股息率达5.9%。公司发布 2023年年报，2023年公司实现营业收入721.4亿元，同比+19.35%（调整后）；营业利 润58.1亿元，同比-7.1%；利润总额58.7亿元，同比-6.5%；净利润34.6亿元，同比-26.7%； 证 市场数据： 2024年04月26日 归母净利润18.4亿元，同比-29.6%（调整后）；扣非后归母净利润8.7亿元，同比-63.8% 券 收盘价（元） 6.26 （调整后）；基本每股收益0.79元/股，同比-30.7%（调整后）。2023年公司综合毛利率、 研 一年内最高/最低（元） 11.66/5.84 净利率分别为18.1%、4.8%，同比分别-2.0pct、-3.2pct；期间费率5.9%，同比-0.9pct。 究 市净率 0.8 报 息率（分红/股价） - 此外，公司投资收益2.8亿元，同比 ...

房地产 公 2024年04月28日 司 报 华发股份(600325.SH) 告 销售稳健投资聚焦，融资畅通分红提升 推荐 ( 维持 ) 事项： 公司公布2023年年报，全年实现营业收入721.4亿元，较上年调整后增长 股价:6.26元 19.4%，归母净利润18.4亿元，较上年调整后下降29.6%，拟每10股派发现金 公 主要数据 红利3.70元（含税）。 行业 房地产 司 平安观点： 公司网址 www.cnhuafas.com ...