"反内卷"对行业意义深远，限制超产或成近期主要抓手 中金认为，短期水泥行业仍依靠错峰停窑限制产量；中期看，限制超产仍然是行业控制产能的主要抓 手：2025年企业需补齐产能指标，超产部分要按照1.5:1或者2:1比例置换。龙头企业在积极补齐产能， 以海螺水泥为例，其公开公告显示其转出一条4500t/d的产线，分别按照2:1比例转至安徽怀宁的两条产 线，置换产能分别为1000t/d和1250t/d，净减量达2250t/d。除此以外，水泥龙头后续或推动区域性整 合，有望逐步淘汰落后产能。 短期基本面承压但下探空间有限，建议更关注行业中长期格局改善 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方 式，建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万亿元。若考虑20年左右的工程建设周期，预期雅下水电工程或为 行业带来年化100-200万吨需求(约为西藏地区原有水泥产量10%左右)。另一方面，"反内卷"对行业意义 深远，短期水泥行业仍依靠错峰停窑限制产量；中期看，限制超产仍然是行业控制产能的主要抓手。 中金主要观点如下： 雅下水电工程预期为行业带来年化100-200万吨需求，利好西藏地区水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share cement sector has shown strong performance in the late trading session, with multiple stocks reaching the daily limit up [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianshan Co., Guotong Co., Western Construction, Tibet Tianlu, Sichuan Jinding, Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Shangfeng Cement are among the companies that hit the daily limit up [1]

资本狂欢常有，而雅砻江不常有 十二载长跑，耐得住寂寞才听得见金戈铁马的回响 帮主郑重与你同行，静待山河换新颜 （想深度交流产业链调研干货？评论区留言"掘进机"，帮主为你拆解高原盾构机的国产化密码） • 铁建重工手握抗岩爆TBM的王牌，集成智能纠偏和复合刀盘技术，高原施工市占率超40%； • 中铁工业的"雪域先锋号"盾构机在川藏铁路淬炼过，直接移植雅江战场； • 恒立钻具的滚刀如金刚钻，硬岩切割毛利率高达52%，单台盾构机年耗刀具成本占15%； • 西藏天路垄断藏区65%水泥产能，工程3000万吨高标号水泥订单等着灌入隧道； • 高争民爆控制西藏90%炸药供应，10万吨级爆破需求让业绩原地起飞。 西藏林芝一声炮响，炸醒了装睡的A股！李强总理刚按下启动键，1.2万亿的雅鲁藏布江水电工程瞬间点燃资本市场——24只概念股竞价封板，三日蔓延至70 家涨停，基建板块单日吸金超百亿，连医药股都被抽血。 这场资本狂欢的核心密码，藏在"截弯取直、隧洞引水"八个字里。雅江水电站要劈开喜马拉雅山脉，在超3000米埋深的花岗岩层中钻出50公里级引水隧洞， 相当于从上海浦东挖到苏州金鸡湖的直线距离。更凶险的是，隧道要穿越17条地震断层 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards high-quality, connotative urban development, with a focus on policies aimed at reducing "involution" in various sectors [2][5] - The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost cement demand in Tibet and surrounding areas, benefiting regional cement companies [11][12][15] - The report highlights the importance of technology innovation and self-discipline in the construction industry, as 33 construction companies advocate for a transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [5][11] Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a strategic shift in urban development from expansion to high-quality, connotative growth, emphasizing human-centered approaches and efficient resource use [3] - The adjustment of long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance the stability of insurance funds as long-term capital [4] - The promotion of Shanghai's free trade zone experiences is set to enhance the business environment and foster fair competition across regions [4] Industry Developments - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing active product iterations, with a focus on specific application scenarios such as industrial logistics and special environments [7][8] - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is projected to require over 40 million cubic meters of concrete, translating to approximately 16 million tons of cement, significantly impacting local supply chains [12][13] - The cement industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with collaborative production strategies expected to stabilize supply and enhance pricing power [14] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in state-owned enterprises responsible for the design and construction of hydropower projects, as well as regional cement and explosives companies that stand to benefit from increased demand [21][19] - The focus on high-quality development in urban planning and construction is expected to create long-term growth opportunities for companies that align with these strategic shifts [3][5]

Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery due to its large scale and the challenging geographical conditions, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2] - Major suppliers of hydropower equipment in China include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [2] - Central state-owned enterprises involved in hydropower engineering design and construction, such as China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation, are expected to be the first beneficiaries of the project [2] Group 3: Related Sectors - The high-altitude and complex geological conditions of the project will drive the demand for high-performance engineering machinery, favoring industry leaders [2][3] - The cement sector is likely to experience a new wave of growth due to the project, with companies like Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement dominating the local market [3] - The commencement of the project is expected to significantly increase the demand for explosives in Tibet, benefiting companies with production capacity and business layout in the region, such as Gaozheng Minbao and Yipuli [3]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, has significantly boosted the A-share market, leading to a surge in related stocks and overall market optimism [1][5]. Market Reaction - On July 21, the A-share market experienced a bullish trend, with over 4,000 companies rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit up, primarily linked to the hydropower project [1][2]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower concept stocks saw substantial gains, with the index rising over 12% and several stocks, including Bicon Technology and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, reaching the daily limit up of 30% [2][3]. Stock Performance - Key stocks related to the Yarlung Tsangpo project included: - Bicon Technology: +29.99% - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment: +29.99% - China Power Construction: +10.04% - Tibet Tianlu: +10.02% [3][4]. - In the Hong Kong market, stocks such as Dongfang Electric surged over 65%, and Huaxin Cement rose over 85%, all associated with the hydropower project [4][5]. Project Details - The Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations, with a planned installed capacity of 70 to 81 million kilowatts, equivalent to three Three Gorges projects [9]. - The project is expected to have a construction period of 10 years and will require over 200,000 tons of steel [9]. Industry Impact - Analysts predict that the ongoing construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project will benefit suppliers of hydropower equipment and core components for power grid projects [10]. - The estimated value of the turbine and generator business related to the project is projected to be between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion yuan, potentially becoming a new growth point for the hydropower equipment sector post-2030 [10].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tibet Tianlu (2025) Industry Overview - The cement demand in Tibet for the first half of 2025 remained stable compared to previous years, influenced by climate conditions leading to fewer project initiations. However, the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station project is expected to boost demand in the second half of the year, although the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan may delay new projects [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station Impact**: The preliminary engineering of the Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station is expected to generate limited growth in cement demand. The company is involved in a segment with a total investment of approximately 75 million yuan, which is projected to require about 360,000 tons of cement and nearly 100,000 tons of water-reducing agents annually [2][5]. - **Competition and Pricing**: The establishment of the Yarlung Tsangpo Group and the price control measures for the Sichuan-Tibet Railway may affect the competitiveness of local enterprises. The pricing is set by the National Development and Reform Commission, which could limit the ability of local companies to adjust prices [2][6]. - **Local Market Dynamics**: Local companies have a significant competitive advantage in the墨脱 Hydropower Station project, as low-cost enterprises from Qinghai and Yunnan face challenges entering the region. This advantage is expected to help increase market share and stabilize price levels [2][7]. - **Production Costs**: There is a significant variance in cement production costs across Tibet, with costs in the Changdu region ranging from 530 to 550 yuan per ton, while costs in the Gaozheng region are about 380 yuan per ton. The implementation of logistics corridor projects is anticipated to reduce costs in Changdu [2][9]. - **Coal Prices**: Although coal prices have decreased since the pandemic, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, with procurement and transportation costs around 1,100 to 1,200 yuan per ton, impacting cement production costs [2][10]. - **Cement Price Adjustments**: Recent price increases in the Lhasa region have been between 20 to 30 yuan per ton, with expectations for further adjustments in the third quarter. However, antitrust policies may limit the extent of these increases [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Demand Drivers**: The demand for cement in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the civil construction market. Despite a lack of price increases, the demand volume was substantial. However, slow progress on infrastructure projects in high-altitude areas led to a decline in revenue in some regions [3][4][17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The current capacity utilization rate is low, with only 50-60 tons during the off-season and similar levels in the second quarter. Full production is constrained by staggered production requirements and market demand [2][11]. - **Government Intervention**: The market is primarily dominated by a few major cement companies, with limited government intervention. However, any approval for new production capacity could impact existing companies [2][14][15]. - **Supply Chain and Logistics**: The company has increased its supply to the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, expecting to reach 300,000 to 400,000 tons, which may account for about 10% of total sales. Long-distance high-growth projects are expected to contribute significantly to this figure [2][16]. - **Future Opportunities**: The company may have opportunities to participate in hydropower station construction projects and collaborate with China Power Construction, leveraging its strengths in energy construction [2][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]

今日45股封单资金超1亿元。 涨停战场： 龙头点睛： 雅下水电概念股掀起涨停潮 1.雅下水电 中国电建以39.68亿元封单资金居首 据证券时报·数据宝统计，7月21日，从收盘涨停板封单量看，中国电建、西藏天路、中国能建排名前三，封单量分别高达709.78万手、358.85万手、 355.1万手；随后，保利联合（维权）、铁建重工封单量均在50万手以上。 从连续涨停天数看，智元机器人核心团队持股平台拟入主的上纬新材继续涨停，斩获9连板，为近期A股大牛股之一；人民同泰、美邦股份、北化股 份、建设工业4股今日实现3连板。 以封单金额计算，今日多达45股封单资金超1亿元。中国电建、西藏天路、高争民爆排名前三，封单资金分别高达39.68亿元、37.82亿元、13.51亿元； 保利联合、中国能建、东方电气、美邦股份、上纬新材、华新水泥封单金额均在5亿元以上。 | | | | | | 7月21日涨停股封单资金排行 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价 | 换手率 | 涨停板封单 | 封車资金 | | 涨停原因 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project in Tibet is expected to significantly boost demand across various sectors, including civil explosives, tunneling, and geotechnical industries, leading to a positive outlook for related companies and industries [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - Tibet's hydropower resources are abundant, with an estimated capacity of about 200 million kilowatts, accounting for nearly 30% of the national total, making it the highest in the country [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The project is projected to generate a total value of approximately 53.5 billion to 95.4 billion yuan in turbine and generator business, with potential growth in the hydropower equipment sector post-2030 [1][2]. - Key beneficiaries in the investment and design construction sectors include China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [2]. - In the tunneling equipment sector, companies such as China Railway Engineering and Tianjin Heavy Industry are highlighted as significant players [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Beneficiaries - In the civil explosives sector, regional leaders like Gaozheng Explosives and Yipuli are expected to benefit from the project [2]. - The cement sector will see potential gains for regional leaders such as Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement [2]. - Companies in the geotechnical field, such as Zhongyan Dadi, and concrete additive leaders like Subote are also identified as having investment value [2].