证券代码：600369 证券简称：西南证券 公告编号：临 2025-049 西南证券股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025 年 12 月 1 日（星期一）14:00-15:00 会议召开地点： 上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 24 日（星期一）至 11 月 28 日（星期五）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 dshb@swsc.com.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行 回答。 西南证券股份有限公司（以下简称公司）已于 2025 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2025 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年第三季 度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 12 月 1 日（星期一）14 ...

Market Overview - On November 21, the Chongqing state-owned enterprise reform sector fell by 2.76% compared to the previous trading day, with Yuzhong Sanxia A leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Shanghai Sanmao (600689) closed at 14.35, up 0.49% with a trading volume of 65,500 shares and a turnover of 93.68 million yuan [1] - Yuzhong Sanxia A (000565) closed at 7.15, down 6.04% with a trading volume of 214,100 shares [2] - Chongqing Port (600279) closed at 5.01, down 5.29% with a trading volume of 188,900 shares [2] Capital Flow - The Chongqing state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a net outflow of 191 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 119 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows: - Chuan Yi Co. (603100) had a main fund net inflow of 15.78 million yuan [3] - Shanghai Sanmao (600689) had a main fund net inflow of 6.36 million yuan [3] - Chongqing Water (601158) had a main fund net inflow of 1.68 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huadian Technology (601226.SH) is rated as "Hold" due to its strategies in reducing costs and increasing efficiency in offshore wind development [1] - The company is leveraging large-scale wind turbines, lightweight blades, and large-scale development to accelerate the growth of offshore wind energy in China [1] - Green hydrogen and ammonia have emerged as significant future industries in China, attracting considerable attention [1] Group 2 - New contracts signed by the company are beginning to show results, indicating a potential acceleration in profit release [1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring various risks, including a decline in downstream construction demand and fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material costs [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Three key analysts from Guosheng Securities Research Institute, including co-director Zheng Zhenxiang, assistant director and pharmaceutical chief Zhang Jinyang, and computer chief Liu Gaochang, have submitted their resignation applications and are set to leave for new opportunities [2][3][4][5]. - Key Point 2: Zheng Zhenxiang, who returned to Guosheng Securities in January 2023, is expected to transition from sell-side to buy-side roles, having over 15 years of experience in the industry and recognized as a top analyst in the electronics sector [3]. - Key Point 3: Zhang Jinyang, with a decade of experience in pharmaceutical investment research, is reportedly moving to become the deputy director at Guolian Minsheng Securities Research Institute [4]. Group 2 - Key Point 1: Liu Gaochang, the youngest chief analyst in the computer industry, is set to join Dongfang Caifu Securities Research Institute, having achieved significant recognition in the field of artificial intelligence and data research [5]. - Key Point 2: Guosheng Securities Research Institute, under the leadership of Yang Tao, became a leading force in the sell-side research market, achieving comprehensive coverage of institutional seats within a year [6]. - Key Point 3: The upcoming public fund fee rate reform in July 2024 is expected to significantly reduce the total pool of commissions available for research payments, adversely affecting smaller brokerage firms, including Guosheng Securities [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Southwest Securities has given China Petroleum (601857.SH, latest price: 9.88 yuan) a "buy" rating based on several factors [1] - The company has a leading position in oil and gas reserves due to its upstream and downstream collaborative layout [1] - Despite pressure on crude oil prices, the growth rate of natural gas sales remains stable [1] - The new materials business is expanding, contributing to steady growth in natural gas sales [1]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again, likely due to the suppression of the rising stock market. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The scale of bond ETF funds increased by 0.02% compared to the previous week's closing, mainly due to the downward oscillation of bond market yields in a loose - money environment, which led to a slight increase in the overall net value of the bond ETF market [2][5]. - The net inflow of treasury bond ETFs led again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs (+1.101 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+0.682 billion yuan), and corporate bond ETFs (+0.417 billion yuan) ranked in the top three [2][5]. - The share redemption of convertible bond ETFs may be related to the conversion of underlying assets. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares for many weeks may be due to the strong motivation of funds to convert shares when the stock market is strong, and the underlying convertible bonds are redeemed and converted into shares [2][16]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. The recent restart of treasury bond trading by the central bank and the positive net investment of reverse repurchase funds last week provided short - term support for the bond market, driving a slight increase in the net value of bond ETFs [2][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again last week, affected by the rising stock market. The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 14, 2025, the scale of bond ETF funds was 70.629 billion yuan, up 0.02% from the previous week's closing and 292.88% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.32% of the total market ETF scale, with a 4bp increase from the previous weekend [5]. - Treasury bond ETFs had the highest net inflow again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs, short - term financing ETFs, and corporate bond ETFs ranked in the top three, while the net inflows of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were negative [5]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of November 14, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local government bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs changed by 8.94 million shares, - 0.22 million shares, 1.11 million shares, 21.39 million shares, and - 102.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025, with a total change of - 71.48 million shares in bond - type ETFs. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares may be related to the conversion of underlying convertible bonds [16]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share net inflows of 30 - year treasury bond ETF and urban investment bond ETF led. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 8.66 million shares, 0.39 million shares, no change, 28.90 million shares, and - 89.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [19]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.53% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [23]. 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Some products had a significant increase in redeemed shares. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs changed by no change, no change, no change, no change, - 4.82 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, - 2.07 million shares, and - 7.08 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [26]. - The net value performance was differentiated, and most products declined. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by 0.02%, 0.01%, no change, no change, - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and - 0.04% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [27]. 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were basically the same as the previous week. The net inflow of shares last week was - 1.70 million shares, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. The shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of Harvest, Penghua, and China Merchants ranked in the top three. The net inflow of shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of China Merchants, Guotai, and Penghua ranked in the top three, while those of GF, Boshi, and Tianhong had the largest net outflows [31]. - The net value trend was flat. As of November 14, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.01% compared to the previous week's closing, basically the same as the previous week [31]. 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The 30 - year treasury bond ETF had the highest net inflow again, and convertible bond - type ETFs led in net value growth. Last week, the net values of convertible bond ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETF increased by 0.53% and 0.33% respectively, ranking in the top. In terms of premium/discount rates, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and corporate bond ETF had the highest premium rates [35]. - In terms of scale changes, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (+1.037 billion yuan), short - term financing ETF (+0.682 billion yuan), and science and technology innovation bond ETF of Harvest (+0.419 billion yuan) had the top - three net inflow amounts, while the convertible bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products, reaching - 1.228 billion yuan [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus from "preventing capital idling" to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" in the third - quarter monetary policy report may create more room for the overall decline of the bond market [4][94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - The central bank aims to restrict "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin. It will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) buy - back repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, with a net investment of 50 billion yuan [7]. - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline in credit data was significant. From January to October, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 1.16 trillion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report was released on November 11, 2025. Compared with the second - quarter report, it removed the statement about "preventing capital idling" and emphasized "maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions." It also added the mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" [4][14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From November 10 to 14, 2025, the central bank injected 112.2 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 49.58 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. From November 17 to 21, it is expected that 124.2 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, including 112.2 billion yuan from reverse repurchase and 12 billion yuan from treasury cash deposits [19]. - Due to the tax period, the fund rate fluctuated last week. As of November 14, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.430%, 1.495%, 1.373%, and 1.467% respectively, with changes of 3.80BP, 2.68BP, 4.08BP, and 5.43BP compared to November 7 [25]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 710.22 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 751.84 billion yuan and a net financing scale of - 41.62 billion yuan. As of the 46th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year reached 29.74 trillion yuan [30]. - The issuance rate of inter - bank CDs increased last week. The average issuance rates of 3 - month and 1 - year CDs of state - owned banks were 1.59% and 1.64% respectively, with changes of 1.75BP and 0.58BP compared to the previous week [34]. - In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all maturities continued to rise. The yield of 1 - month AAA - rated CDs rose 2.28BP to 1.49%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 52.95% quantile level [36]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the supply of discount treasury bonds and long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased. The number of interest - rate bond issuances was 96, with an actual issuance amount of 726.866 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 403.531 billion yuan. From January to November, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of November 14, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.09 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.67 trillion yuan [38]. - Last week, the supply scale of local bonds increased significantly. The number of treasury bond issuances was 6, with an actual issuance amount of 309.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 244.32 billion yuan; the number of local bond issuances was 73, with an actual issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 256.001 billion yuan; the number of policy - bank bond issuances was 17, with an actual issuance amount of 132.48 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 96.79 billion yuan [45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Affected by the tax period, the volatility of the fund market increased, and interest rates showed an oscillatory trend. The liquidity premium of active bonds was generally stable. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [38]. - The 10 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed slightly to 40.36BP, at the 30.17% quantile level since 2022; the 30 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed 1.59BP to 73.77BP, at the 36.60% quantile level since 2022 [61]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of November 14, the spread between 10 - year local bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 15.60BP, narrowing 4.98BP compared to the previous week and at the 30.64% quantile level since 2022; the spread between 30 - year local bonds and 30 - year treasury bonds was 22.19BP, widening 2.00BP compared to the previous week and at the 73.53% quantile level since 2022 [63]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading declined, with an average of about 7.44 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying intensity of state - owned banks continued to weaken, with a buying scale of 46.28 billion yuan for treasury bonds within 5 years. Rural commercial banks were at the buying - selling critical point, preferring to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 5 years and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. The承接 forces of insurance and funds weakened, and their preferences for duration became more differentiated. Insurance increased its net buying of local bonds over 10 years, accounting for 92% of the net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds mainly increased holdings of policy - bank bonds within 5 years [65][77]. - The current average position - adding cost of major trading desks is generally below 1.825% (except for funds). The position - adding costs of rural commercial banks, securities firms, funds, and other products are about 1.823%, 1.822%, 1.831%, and 1.824% respectively [65][78]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased 0.55% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased 1.27%, the cement price index increased 0.03%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased 5.41%. The CCFI index increased 3.39%, and the BDI index decreased 1.28%. The wholesale price of pork decreased 0.93%, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased 0.35%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased 0.97% and 1.77% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of reducing bank liability costs may create more room for the bond market to decline. The weakening financial data in October also indicates the necessity of maintaining a supportive monetary policy [94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95].

Core Insights - The current mainstream antidepressants face challenges such as slow onset, limited efficacy (40%-65%), insufficient long-term tolerability, and low patient adherence [1][2] - The domestic antidepressant market is still dominated by traditional SSRIs, but local innovative drug development is entering a harvest period, with micro-innovative drugs like Trospium and Venlafaxine showing promise [1] - Future development directions focus on precision treatment and personalized medication [1] Current Treatment Shortcomings - Depression is one of the most common mental disorders, characterized by persistent low mood, anhedonia, and decreased energy, with unclear etiology [1] - Existing first-line antidepressants like SSRIs have limited efficacy, with about one-third of patients not achieving relief after multiple treatment steps [1] - Current antidepressants have a slow onset, typically requiring 1-4 weeks for improvement and 4-8 weeks to reach treatment goals, posing risks of suicide during acute phases [1] - There is room for improvement in precision treatment for different subtypes and special populations, as well as addressing issues like patient-initiated drug discontinuation [1] Efficacy and Long-term Use - The efficacy of existing antidepressants ranges from 40% to 65%, with variations based on the heterogeneity of depression and specific patient characteristics [2] - Long-term use highlights the importance of safety and tolerability, with common adverse effects including gastrointestinal reactions, CNS effects, and sexual dysfunction [2] - Some drugs, like Escitalopram and Venlafaxine, have lower adverse event rates, while certain adverse effects may benefit specific patients [2] Domestic Market Overview - In 2024, the sales of antidepressants in China exceeded 8 billion yuan, with SSRIs accounting for 3.58 billion yuan (43.44%) of the market [3] - SNRIs and traditional Chinese medicine also hold significant market shares, with the top-selling antidepressants including Escitalopram and Agomelatine [3] - Generic drugs are expected to maintain a considerable market share due to price advantages, while innovative drugs will benefit patients through improved safety and efficacy [3] Development of Domestic Antidepressants - Currently, there is one approved innovative antidepressant in China, with over twenty in clinical trials, indicating a harvest period ahead [4] - The only marketed local innovative drug is Trospium (Ruxinlin), which is expected to see growth after entering the medical insurance system in 2025 [4] - Promising candidates in various stages of clinical trials include monoamine neurotransmitter antidepressants and NMDA antagonists [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that Dazhenlin (603233.SH) is expanding its network through franchising, leading to an optimized store structure [1] - The company is dynamically adjusting its product category structure, showcasing resilience in high-margin businesses [1] - Significant results have been achieved in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, with an ongoing increase in market concentration among leading players [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Nanjing Julong (300644.SZ) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 42.90 yuan, driven by the high potential of the modified plastics industry and its shift towards high-end domestic alternatives [1] - The modified plastics industry is expected to have broad application scenarios in the future, particularly in high-performance modified plastics [1] - Nanjing Julong is actively entering emerging sectors such as robotics, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, indicating a strategy of diversified and collaborative development [1]