北京商报讯（记者 王蔓蕾）1月18日，通威股份（600438）披露公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属 净利润约为-100亿元至-90亿元。 通威股份表示，报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年明显放缓，行业阶段性供应 过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继 续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately -90.00 billion to -100.00 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to industry challenges such as supply surplus, rising raw material prices, and declining product prices [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately -75 to -80 billion yuan from operations, which is an increase in operational losses of about 12 to 17 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon segment is expected to exacerbate net losses by approximately 9 billion yuan due to production ramp-up and low market prices [1] - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to reduce operational losses by about 6 billion yuan through optimized production and cost reduction efforts [1] Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a slowdown in new installations in the second half of the year, contributing to significant operational pressure [1] - The average selling price of battery and component businesses has further declined, leading to an increase in net losses by approximately 12 billion yuan [1] Asset Impairment - The company has recognized long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 15 to 20 billion yuan, an increase of about 7 to 12 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [1] - Impairments include around 10 billion yuan related to certain photovoltaic power station businesses [1] Strategic Outlook - Despite current industry challenges, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and is committed to technological development and cost efficiency [1] - The company maintains strong core competencies in technology, cost management, and operations, with sufficient cash reserves to navigate market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the year 2025, estimated between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan due to operational reasons, which represents an increase in losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon business is expected to exacerbate the net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 900 million yuan due to capacity ramp-up and ongoing low market prices [1] - Despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price in the polysilicon business, the company managed to reduce losses by about 600 million yuan year-on-year through optimized operating rates and cost reduction efforts, achieving operational profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The battery and module business has seen a further decline in average selling prices due to market conditions, contributing to an increase in net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The photovoltaic power station, feed, and industrial chain businesses are performing steadily, continuing to contribute profits to the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for the year 2025, reflecting a significant operational challenge in its business segments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan from operations for the reporting period, which represents an increase in operational losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon business is expected to exacerbate the net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 900 million yuan due to capacity ramp-up and ongoing low market prices [1] - Despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price in the polysilicon business, the company managed to reduce operational losses by about 600 million yuan year-on-year, aided by optimized production rates and improved production processes [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The battery and module business has seen a further decline in average selling prices due to market conditions, contributing to an increase in net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The photovoltaic power station, feed, and industrial chain businesses are performing steadily, continuing to contribute profits to the company [1]

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2026-003 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 22 转债 | 通威股份有限公司 公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为-90 亿元至 -100 亿元。 扣除非经常性损益后，公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润约为-90 亿元至-100 亿元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年明显放缓，行业 阶段性供应过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材 料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。 公司报告期内经营性导致归属上市公司所有者的净利润亏损约 75-80 亿元， 同比去年经营性增加亏损约 12-17 亿元。其中，公司工业硅业务在 2025 年受产能 投产爬坡调试以 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - The silicon material industry is experiencing significant production adjustments, with major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. reportedly halting production, leading to a potential supply-demand rebalancing in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Adjustments - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has been adjusting its production rates dynamically based on market conditions to optimize economic performance, although specific execution details remain unclear [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon division reported that some leading companies are gradually halting production, with plans to continue for up to six months, which may reduce monthly silicon production to between 70,000 and 90,000 tons by Q1 2026 [2]. - In the first half of 2025, there are nine operational multi-crystalline silicon producers in China with a total capacity of 3.35 million tons per year, but production is expected to drop by 44.1% year-on-year to 597,000 tons, resulting in an operating rate of 38.6% to 44.1% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Conditions - Despite production cuts, the high inventory levels in the silicon material sector remain unchanged, with an estimated inventory of 290,000 tons by the end of 2025, close to three months of consumption [3]. - The market is currently in a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with stable silicon wafer production and slight consumption of social inventory providing essential support for the market [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd. has forecasted a net loss of 1 to 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, a significant reduction from over 2.7 billion yuan in the previous year, attributed to changes in asset impairment factors [4]. - Although there is an anticipated recovery in multi-crystalline silicon prices starting in Q3 2025 due to ongoing policy guidance, the industry still faces challenges from high inventory levels and weak demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that 2026 will be a "Red Horse Year" for the Chinese base metals market, driven by favorable conditions for electrification and AI power infrastructure in 2023 due to factors such as a weak dollar and the US interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The supply of copper and aluminum remains tight [1] - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The anti-involution policy is becoming more balanced, although recent enforcement has been weak [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include aluminum companies as alternative investments for AI power supply, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times [1] - Positive outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks; neutral view on coal; bearish on solar energy and construction materials (like steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Specific Stock Picks - Key stock picks include China Aluminum (601600) (02600), Zijin Mining (601899) (02899), China Hongqiao (01378), Shandong Gold (600547) (01787), and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) (01772) [1] - Underperforming stocks identified include Tongwei Co. (600438) (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel (000898) (00347), and China Resources Cement (01313) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to several key factors, including a weak US dollar and a US interest rate cut cycle benefiting metals [1] - Key demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - Supply constraints for copper and aluminum are expected to continue, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The preferred investment stocks include aluminum companies, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times, and a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and a bearish outlook on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] - Key stocks that are expected to underperform the market include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel Group (00347), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) [1]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector experienced a strong upward trend, with the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 1.30% as of 11:01 AM on January 16, 2026, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Robotech (up 10.25%), Junda Co. (up 7.33%), and Maiwei Co. (up 7.21%) [1] - The space photovoltaic concept has gained significant attention at the beginning of 2026, with brokerages releasing multiple research reports predicting a "trillion-level market," as companies like JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Junda Co. actively disclose their strategic developments and future plans [1] - The market regulator emphasized the importance of addressing "involutionary" competition within the photovoltaic industry, with GF Securities reporting that the ongoing efforts to combat involution are expected to improve industry profitability, particularly in the downstream component segment in 2026 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index included TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, Sungrow Power, TCL Technology, Tongwei Co., Maiwei Co., Deye Technology, Chint Electric, TCL Zhonghuan, and Jiejia Weichuang, collectively accounting for 55.11% of the index [2] - The Jiahua Photovoltaic ETF (159123) tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, providing a convenient tool for investing across the entire photovoltaic industry chain [3] - Investors can also access the photovoltaic ETF through the off-market connection (014605) to capitalize on investment opportunities within the photovoltaic industry chain [4]