近日，A股光伏板块全线爆发，多只个股上演20%涨停潮，连城数控（920368.BJ）、欧普泰 （920414.BJ）更是录得"30cm"涨停，港股市场太阳能概念股亦同步共振。引爆行情的是美国富豪马斯 克在达沃斯论坛上对太空光伏的最新力挺，其为低迷已久的光伏板块注入了强烈的题材预期。 然而，掀开概念炒作的表层，光伏行业面临的却是连续两年半的普遍亏损、产能阶段性过剩与产品价格 持续承压的"弱现实"。第一财经记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，包括通威股份 （600438.SH）、晶科能源（688223.SH）、天合光能（688599.SH）、晶澳科技（002459.SZ）、TCL中 环（002129.SZ）、钧达股份（002865.SZ）在内的多家光伏制造巨头，预计2025年净利润亏损幅度进一 步加剧，预亏金额在40亿元到100亿元区间。 仅少数光伏企业如大全能源（688303.SH）、隆基绿能（601012.SH）、双良节能（600481.SH）等同比 实现减亏。在强预期炒作与弱现实基本面的显著背离下，行业资产负债表持续承压，结构性修复迫在眉 睫。 业内人士普遍认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确定性， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment sector [6] Core Insights - The report highlights new opportunities in the photovoltaic industry driven by space solar power initiatives and rising prices of battery components [1][17] - It emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and technological advancements in creating long-term growth opportunities within the industry [1][19] - The report identifies key companies to watch in various segments, including supply chain price increases, new technology growth, and perovskite solar cell developments [1][19][21] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The price of multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials remains stable, with an average transaction price of 59,200 RMB per ton [17] - N-type battery cell prices have increased to 0.42 RMB per watt, with a price range of 0.40-0.43 RMB per watt [17] - The report notes that rising silver prices have led to increased component costs, with distributed component prices now ranging from 0.70 to 0.80 RMB per watt [17] - SpaceX and Tesla plan to achieve a combined solar manufacturing capacity of 200GW annually in the U.S. within three years, with 40GW dedicated to space solar power [1][18] - Key companies to focus on include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar for supply-side reform opportunities [1][19] Wind Power & Grid - The Netherlands will launch a 1GW offshore wind project tender in September 2026, with a subsidy budget of approximately 32.45 billion RMB [19][20] - Turkey plans to initiate its first offshore wind tender by the end of 2026, aiming for 5GW of installed capacity by 2035 [19][20] - Southern Power Grid has set a fixed asset investment of 180 billion RMB for 2026, focusing on new power system construction and strategic emerging industries [20] - Companies to watch include Goldwind, Yunda, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy in the wind turbine sector [20] Hydrogen Energy - A ceremony for the operation of 300 hydrogen fuel heavy trucks was recently held, showcasing advancements in hydrogen energy technology [3][21] - The trucks are equipped with a 130kW fuel cell system and can achieve a range of over 600 kilometers [3][21] - Key companies in this sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industry, and Shenghui Technology [3][21] Energy Storage - The report forecasts that new energy storage installations in China will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38%/60% [4][22] - The average bid price for 2-hour energy storage systems is projected to be 0.55 RMB/Wh in 2025, down 16.9% from 2024 [4][22] - Companies to focus on include Sungrow Power, Canadian Solar, and Kehua Data for large-scale energy storage opportunities [4][22] New Energy Vehicles - CATL launched the "Tianxing II" series solutions for light commercial vehicles, including the industry's first intelligent battery management application [5][27] - The solutions cater to various scenarios, including high-frequency urban distribution and extreme temperature conditions [5][27] - Key companies in the battery sector include CATL, Penghui Energy, and Guoxuan High-Tech [5][29]

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy have recently announced significant projected losses for 2025, primarily due to rising silver prices impacting their performance [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Projections - JinkoSolar expects a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025, while Tongwei Co. anticipates losses between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, and LONGi Green Energy projects a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan [3]. - The rising costs of silver paste, a key material in photovoltaic cell production, have been cited as a major factor contributing to these losses [4]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Material Impact - Silver paste, which is crucial for manufacturing photovoltaic cells, accounts for approximately 62% of the non-silicon costs in TOPCon solar cells, with a projected cost of 0.138 yuan/W by the end of 2025 [4]. - The current spot price of silver has surged to over $100 per ounce, having more than tripled in the past year, adding to the cost pressures faced by these companies [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - Companies are attempting to pass on costs by slightly increasing the prices of photovoltaic modules; however, this is constrained by a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [5]. - The domestic market demand is weakening, and overseas procurement is also declining, which may further limit the ability of companies to raise prices [5]. Group 4: Technological Developments - Companies are exploring alternatives to reduce silver usage, such as the development of "silver-free" technologies and the use of copper plating [5][6]. - While significant R&D efforts are underway, the maturity and effectiveness of these technologies remain uncertain, and their economic viability is under scrutiny [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook on Silver Prices - In the short term, the impact of alternative technologies on silver prices is expected to be limited due to their nascent stage of development [7]. - Long-term trends may see downward pressure on silver prices as these technologies mature and photovoltaic installation volumes potentially decline [7]. - The strategic resource status of silver, influenced by policy changes, may continue to support its price [8].

本文转自【中新经纬】； 近日，晶科能源、通威股份、隆基绿能等多家光伏头部企业纷纷发布2025年业绩预告，晶科能源预计 2025年归母净利润亏损59亿元至69亿元，通威股份预计亏损90亿元至100亿元，隆基绿能预计归属于上 市公司股东的净亏损为60亿元到65亿元。 那么，材料的替代进程是否会反向对未来银价产生影响？夏日认为，从短期来看，由于替代技术尚未完 全成熟，商业化进程还处于初级阶段，对未来银价的影响非常有限。从长期来看，替代技术趋于成熟以 及光伏装机量的下降，可能会对银价产生下行压力。 国投期货高级分析师吴江则认为，产业作为被动接受方，其需求的浮动不会对银价有太大影响，未来白 银价格主要还是由金融属性主导。 若未来银价出现如此大幅度上涨，光伏企业又能在多大程度上将成本转移出去？ 在安邦智库（ANBOUND）研究中心助理研究员夏日看来，理论上，将成本向下传导，提价成为光伏企 业短期最直接的应对方式。事实上，部分龙头光伏企业确实已采取行动，轻微上调光伏组件的价格。然 而这种价格上调受到光伏行业"供强需弱"格局的明显制约，光伏组件价格未来即便能继续上涨，也很微 弱。 夏日进一步解释称，"一方面，尽管受到'反内卷 ...

为确保期货市场与实体产业高效对接，广期所在多晶硅期货合约设计中采用注册品牌交割制度，并对交 割品质量标准设定进行了详尽调研，以满足上下游企业产销需求。 广发期货分析师纪元菲表示，多晶硅生产企业产能较为集中，行业内的贸易对品牌声誉、质量标准较为 重视，具备品牌管理基础。同时，品牌交割制度有利于保障产业客户的需求，进一步确保入库商品质量 的可追溯性与一致性。 ● 本报记者王超 作为服务实体经济的重要金融工具，多晶硅期货上市已满一周年，在稳定光伏产业链、优化行业生态方 面发挥了不容忽视的作用。作为光伏产业链的核心原材料，当前多晶硅仍面临供需阶段性错配、价格大 幅波动的风险。期货工具的引入，为产业企业提供了重要的价格"晴雨表"和风险"防护垫"，为整个光伏 行业平滑周期波动、管理风险、转型升级持续注入力量。 服务国家战略契合产业迫切需求 在"硅料-硅片-电池片-组件"组成的光伏产业链中，多晶硅位于上游，是决定光伏产品性能与成本的核心 环节。中国作为多晶硅全球最大的生产国和消费国，已建立起全球领先的产业优势。然而，近年来其价 格受产业周期、技术迭代等多重因素影响波动显著，给上下游企业的稳定经营带来挑战。数据显示， 202 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector experienced a significant surge, with photovoltaic equipment (BK1031) closing at 1616.53, marking a 9.14% increase as of January 23 [1] - Several stocks, including Dongfang Risen (300118.SZ), Aotwei (688516.SH), Maiwei Co. (300751.SZ), and Longi Green Energy (601012.SH), reached their daily limit, while Tongwei Co. (600438.SH) saw an increase of over 7% [1][2] Group 2: Key Developments - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, expressed strong support for space photovoltaics during a discussion at the World Economic Forum, revealing plans for a solar manufacturing capacity of 100GW annually over the next three years [1] - The concept of "space photovoltaics" is highlighted as a critical energy source for satellites, providing long-term, stable, and lightweight power in extreme space environments [3] Group 3: Technological Insights - Perovskite batteries are emerging as a potential next-generation technology for space applications, offering advantages such as low material costs and high power-to-weight ratios [4] - Current applications of perovskite technology in commercial space are still in the testing phase, with successful in-orbit trials reported [6] Group 4: Company Strategies - Shanghai Portway (605598.SH) is actively involved in the satellite energy system sector, focusing on perovskite battery technology [7] - Companies like Maiwei Co. and Jiejia Weichuang are engaging in contracts related to perovskite supply and equipment solutions [7] - Trina Solar (688599.SH) is pursuing long-term strategies in various solar technologies, including perovskite and multi-junction cells [7] Group 5: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent market rally, the photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies, including Longi Green Energy, forecasting substantial losses due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and competitive pressures [9][11] - The industry is currently in a cyclical downturn, with several firms reporting losses and facing increased operational costs due to rising material prices [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in the photovoltaic sector, with the photovoltaic ETF (159857) index soaring nearly 7% and attracting a subscription of 63 million shares [1] - Elon Musk expressed strong support for space photovoltaics at the Davos Forum, revealing key production capacity plans, with SpaceX and Tesla aiming to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100 GW within the next three years [1] - China plans to deploy 13,000 low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2030, following the submission of over 200,000 satellite constellation applications, marking a new phase in commercial space deployment that will drive long-term demand for space photovoltaics [1] Group 2 - Financial analysts believe that the rise of commercial space will benefit space photovoltaics, with satellite constellations like SpaceX's Starlink and China's Qianfan constellation significantly increasing the demand for space photovoltaic cells [1] - The largest photovoltaic ETF in the Shenzhen market (159857) tracks the photovoltaic industry index, covering the entire industry chain from silicon materials to solar power station operations, reflecting the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include industry leaders such as Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and Sungrow Power Supply, indicating a reasonable concentration with both growth and stability [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300118 | 东方日升 | 1 | 20.00 | 237亿 | 41.61 | | 300393 | 中来股份 | | 12.19 | 89.24亿 | 22.24 | | 002506 | 协鑫集成 | -06- | 10.18 | 184亿 | 12.14 | | 002218 | 拓日新能 | 报 | 10.08 | 77.15亿 | 25.81 | | 603396 | 美辰股份 | | 10.00 | 57.13 Z | 22.92 | | 600732 | 爰相股份 | 1 | 10.00 | 312亿 | 10.00 | | 002865 | 钧达股份 | 1 | 10.00 | 291亿 | 82.09 | | 603806 | 福斯特 | | 9.97 | 452亿 | 24.00 | | 600537 | に開米电 | | 9.86 | 38.23亿 | -22.36 | | 688223 | 晶科能源 | 4→ | 9.57 | ...

公告显示，债券简称为"26通威GN001(科创债)"，期限1+1年，起息日和兑付日分别为2026年1月22日、 2028年1月22日。计划和实际发行总额均为5亿元，发行利率2.15%。本次发行的募集资金已于1月22日 全额到账。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）1月22日晚间，通威股份（600438）披露公告称，近日，公司已完成 5亿元2026年度第一期绿色科技创新债券发行工作。 ...

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 | 公告编号：2026-004 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 转债 22 | | 通威股份有限公司 2026 年度 第一期绿色科技创新债券发行结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 债券名称 | 通威股份有限公司 2026 年度第一期绿色科技创新 债券 | 债券简称 | 26 通威 | | GN001(科创债) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 132680004 | 期限 | 1+1 年 | | | | 起息日 | 2026 年 1 月 22 日 | 兑付日 | 2028 年 | 1 月 | 22 日 | | 2.15% | 发行价(百元 面值) | 100.00 | | --- | --- | --- | | 主承销商 中信银行股份有限公司 | 联席主承销 商 | 上海浦东发展银行股份有限公 司、天津银行股份有限公司 | | 计划发 ...