| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300118 | 东方日升 | 1 | -7.33 | 242亿 | 44.95 | | 603806 | 福斯特 | | -5.34 | 463亿 | 27.08 | | 002865 | 钧达股份 | 1 | -5.08 | 289亿 | 80.97 | | 002506 | 协鑫集成 | 1 | -4.61 | 206亿 | 25.71 | | 688599 | 天合光能 | 长 | -4.53 | 464亿 | 19.58 | | 605117 | 德业股份 | 1 | -4.40 | 820亿 | 4.64 | | 600537 | 亿闘米甲 | | -4.14 | 38.35亿 | -22.12 | | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 1 | -4.01 | 3148亿 | -11.23 | | 300554 | 三超新材 | 报 | -3.80 | 29.51亿 | 11.43 | | 603398 | *ST沐邦 | | -3.10 | ...

上市企业：新希望（000876）,海大集团（002311）,通威股份（600438）,大北农（002385）,粤海饲料 （001313） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国饲料行业市场调查研究及发展前景展望报告》 2020-2025年中国饲料产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国饲料产量为3009万吨，同比增长3.9%；2025年中国饲料累 计产量为33908.3万吨，累计增长6%。 ...

通威股份今年以来股价跌6.92%，近5个交易日涨3.30%，近20日跌11.20%，近60日跌24.24%。 1月28日，通威股份盘中下跌2.05%，截至10:14，报19.10元/股，成交5.82亿元，换手率0.67%，总市值 859.88亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3334.95万元，特大单买入6068.55万元，占比10.42%，卖出5688.28万 元，占比9.77%；大单买入9921.91万元，占比17.03%，卖出1.36亿元，占比23.41%。 资料显示，通威股份有限公司位于中国(四川)自由贸易试验区成都市高新区天府大道中段588号，成立 日期1995年12月8日，上市日期2004年3月2日，公司主营业务涉及水产饲料、畜禽饲料等产品的研究、 生产和销售;高纯晶硅、太阳能电池等产品的研发、生产、销售为主。主营业务收入构成为：光伏相关 产品65.86%，饲料、食品及相关产品32.89%，其他(补充)1.25%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，通威股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.36亿股，相比上期减少2790.65万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep reform to combat internal competition, with regulatory measures and policy adjustments reflecting a commitment to high-quality development. However, many companies are still facing significant losses, indicating that this battle is not a short-term fix but a necessary step to resolve structural issues within the industry [2][5]. Industry Performance - Major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and LONGi Green Energy are projected to incur substantial losses in 2025, with estimated net losses of 9 to 10 billion yuan and 6 to 6.5 billion yuan respectively. Other companies such as JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar are also expected to report significant losses, highlighting the severe challenges faced by the industry [2][3]. - The average gross margin for the entire industry is only 3.64%, with many companies trapped in a cycle of "production equals loss" due to oversupply and rising raw material costs [3][4]. Causes of Losses - The industry's performance crisis is primarily attributed to excessive homogenous production capacity and fierce price competition, compounded by soaring raw material costs. The supply of silicon materials is projected to exceed global demand by more than double over the next three years, leading to a significant imbalance [3][4]. - The price of silver, a key material in photovoltaic cells, has surged by 231% in 2025, pushing companies to adopt cost-cutting measures at the expense of technological innovation and quality [4][5]. Recommendations for Improvement - Companies must shift their focus from price competition to technological innovation and quality improvement, investing in advanced battery technologies such as TOPCon, BC, and ABC to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4][6]. - The industry needs to establish self-regulatory standards to combat unfair competition practices, such as selling below cost and misrepresenting product capabilities, while promoting collaboration among companies to consolidate resources [4][6]. Government Role - Government policies and regulatory actions are crucial for supporting the industry's reform efforts. A unified and clear policy direction is necessary to stabilize market expectations and foster industry consensus [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies should enhance oversight on low-price dumping and set higher energy consumption and environmental standards for mature production stages, while also optimizing bidding rules to prioritize technology and quality over price [5][6]. Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture, with the potential for recovery as companies begin to reduce losses and improve profitability. Analysts suggest that the industry may see a turning point in profitability by early 2026 [6][7]. - A collaborative effort between companies and government is essential to ensure that innovation becomes the cornerstone of industry development, allowing China to transition from a manufacturing hub to a center of innovation in the global energy transformation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry in A-shares is facing significant losses, with many leading companies projecting substantial pre-loss figures for 2025 due to a challenging operating environment and supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Major PV companies are expected to report significant pre-loss figures for 2025, including Tongwei Co. with a projected loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy with 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, and JinkoSolar with 5.9 to 6.9 billion yuan [2]. - The overall operating environment remains difficult, with many companies experiencing nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, driven by price declines and insufficient end-demand [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The PV module prices are under pressure due to "involutionary competition" and a lack of terminal demand, with market transaction prices around 0.6 yuan per watt expected in mid-2025 [3]. - The industry is witnessing a supply surplus, with production rates declining across various segments, while core material prices, such as silver, continue to rise [3]. Group 3: Recovery Efforts and Future Goals - Some companies are beginning to emerge from the loss cycle, with LONGi Green Energy projecting a maximum reduction in losses of 30.38% and Aiko Solar up to 77.44% compared to 2024 [4]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted a 16.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the main industry chain in the first three quarters of 2025, but an improvement in gross margins to 3.64% [4]. - Several leading PV companies have set profit targets for 2026, with Trina Solar aiming for a net profit of no less than 200 million yuan and LONGi Green Energy targeting positive net profits in subsequent years [5].

Group 1 - A significant number of loss-making companies are disclosing their performance forecasts during the annual report season, contrasting with previous years where profitable companies led the announcements [1][2] - As of January 26, 1165 A-share companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with approximately 60% (709 companies) reporting a decline in performance, and over 500 companies expected to incur losses [1][3] - The real estate and construction sectors are particularly affected, with companies like Huaxia Happiness expected to report losses between 16 billion to 24 billion yuan, making it the "loss king" [1][5] Group 2 - The trend of loss-making companies proactively disclosing their forecasts reflects a transformation in the A-share market, indicating a more rational market behavior [2][15] - The majority of companies facing performance declines are concentrated in the real estate, construction, and pharmaceutical sectors, with 53 companies expected to report losses exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][6] - The solar energy sector is also experiencing significant losses, with leading companies like Tongwei Co. and Longi Green Energy projecting substantial net profit losses [7][18] Group 3 - Following the disclosure of poor performance forecasts, stock prices of several companies have dropped significantly, with Yanghe Co. and Zhichun Technology experiencing notable declines [10][11] - The termination of acquisitions and restructuring efforts has further compounded the challenges for some companies, leading to sharp declines in their stock prices [14] - Investors are urged to adjust their stock selection logic, focusing on the quality of earnings and cash flow, as well as aligning investments with high-growth sectors [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The keyword "pre-loss" has become prominent in the 2025 performance forecasts of various photovoltaic companies, indicating that most firms continue to face losses due to operational challenges and supply-demand imbalances in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Leading photovoltaic companies are forecasting significant losses for 2025, with Tongwei Co. expecting a loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy forecasting a loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, and JinkoSolar projecting a loss of 5.9 to 6.9 billion yuan [1] - The overall photovoltaic industry has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, driven by a decline in component prices due to intense competition and insufficient end-user demand [1][2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a supply surplus, with core raw material prices rising while product prices continue to decline, leading to significant operational pressure on companies [2] - The ongoing low operating rates and the deepening market reforms in the domestic electricity sector, along with increasing trade barriers abroad, have created a complex and challenging operating environment for photovoltaic companies [2] Group 3: Recovery Efforts - Some companies are beginning to emerge from the loss cycle, with LONGi Green Energy expecting to reduce losses by up to 30.38% and Aiko Solar by up to 77.44% compared to 2024 [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association reported a 16.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the main industry chain in the first three quarters of 2025, although gross margins improved to 3.64% [2] Group 4: Future Goals - Companies like Trina Solar have set profit targets for 2026, aiming for a net profit of no less than 200 million yuan, with increasing targets for subsequent years [3] - LONGi Green Energy's employee stock ownership plan also includes targets for positive net profit in 2026, with specific profit goals for 2027 and 2028 [3] Group 5: Price Adjustments - Trina Solar has raised its component prices three times this month, with prices now ranging from 0.88 to 0.92 yuan per watt, reflecting a response to industry self-discipline [4] - Major component manufacturers are increasing prices by 0.02 to 0.04 yuan per watt, and there is a growing willingness among intermediate suppliers to support price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards high-quality development, driven by both internal corporate self-discipline and external government support, as evidenced by recent regulatory measures and policy adjustments aimed at combating price competition and fostering innovation [1][4][7]. Industry Performance - The photovoltaic sector is currently facing severe financial challenges, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and LONGi Green Energy projected to incur substantial losses in 2025, highlighting the industry's struggle with low-price competition and rising material costs [1][2]. - The average gross margin for the industry has plummeted to just 3.64%, leading many companies into a cycle of "production equals loss" [2]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing an oversupply of homogeneous production capacity, with silicon material capacity exceeding global demand by more than double, resulting in a fierce price war among companies [2][3]. - Companies that previously relied on scale advantages are now also facing revenue declines and negative profits, indicating a widespread crisis across the sector [2]. Material Costs and Innovation - The price of silver, a critical component in photovoltaic cells, has surged by 231% in 2025, pushing companies to adopt cost-reduction technologies such as "less silver" or "silver-free" approaches [3]. - The focus on price competition has led some companies to neglect technological innovation and quality improvement, which are essential for long-term survival [3]. Government Role and Policy Recommendations - Government intervention is crucial for the success of the anti-involution measures, requiring a unified and clear policy direction to stabilize market expectations and foster industry consensus [4][6]. - There is a need for coordinated regulatory efforts across various government departments to effectively combat unfair competition and ensure sustainable industry practices [5][6]. Future Outlook - The current challenges in the photovoltaic industry present an opportunity for transformation, shifting from a focus on quantity to value creation, which is expected to be a long-term process [7]. - Some companies are beginning to reduce losses, and there is optimism that the industry may see a profitability turning point in early 2026 [7].

Group 1 - A total of 1123 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 602 companies expecting profits and 521 companies anticipating losses [1][2] - Among the companies predicting profits, Zijin Mining leads with a forecasted net profit of 52 billion yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum with 20.8 billion yuan [2][3] - The automotive sector, represented by SAIC Motor, is expected to see a significant profit increase of 438%-558%, the highest growth rate among the top ten profit forecast companies [2][3] Group 2 - The real estate sector dominates the list of companies forecasting significant losses, with China Fortune Land Development expected to lose between 16 billion and 24 billion yuan [3][4] - Other sectors facing losses include the photovoltaic industry, with Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar among the top ten companies predicting losses [4][5] - JinkoSolar is projected to experience the largest decline in net profit, with a decrease of 6063.96%-7074.8% due to price fluctuations in the global photovoltaic industry [9][10] Group 3 - Companies like *ST Weir and Tonghua Dongbao are expected to see substantial profit growth, with *ST Weir forecasting a net profit increase of 8303.8%-9599.14% [6][8] - Approximately 260 companies are expected to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, accounting for about one-fifth of the companies that have released forecasts [7][8] - The performance of companies in the photovoltaic sector is under pressure due to market conditions, impacting their profitability despite efforts to innovate and upgrade technology [9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].