Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is reshaping supply and demand in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, accelerating the parity of solar storage in core markets and opening up new scenarios for future demand [1][3][5] - Global demand for solar energy is expected to grow significantly, with projected new installations of approximately 600GW in 2025 and 610GW in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of about 13.21% and 1.67% respectively [3][6] - The domestic and overseas production capacity is rapidly increasing, leading to a significant oversupply in the PV industry, which has resulted in continuous price declines and losses for many companies [5][6] Group 2 - The penetration rate of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to rise quickly, with leading companies likely to recover profitability ahead of the industry [1][22] - The article highlights that the profitability of auxiliary material companies is expected to improve as they diversify their business, with a focus on non-PV sectors [1][36] - The article identifies key beneficiaries in the market, including companies that lead in low-silver and silver-free technology iterations, such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages [1][46] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of rising silver prices on the cost structure of solar cell manufacturers, indicating that the cost of silver paste is becoming a critical factor for cost reduction [22][23] - The introduction of new technologies, such as high-copper and pure copper solutions, is accelerating in the industry, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [25][27] - The demand for space photovoltaics is anticipated to grow due to an increase in space launch missions, with a projected 263 launches in 2024, indicating a strong short-term demand for solar wings in low Earth orbit [29] Group 4 - The article notes that the profitability of battery materials is expected to improve as the pressure from the main chain eases, with low-silver and silver-free iterations likely to bring new benefits [36][39] - The photovoltaic glass sector is also expected to see a recovery in profitability due to industry self-discipline and a reduction in supply, with prices showing signs of recovery [41][46] - The article concludes with investment recommendations, suggesting that companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology, as well as those involved in energy storage, are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market changes [46]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. expected to report substantial losses for 2025, indicating a deepening crisis in the sector [1][17]. Industry Status - Major photovoltaic companies are experiencing severe losses, with Tongwei Co. projected to lose between 90 to 100 billion yuan and Longi Green Energy expected to lose between 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025 [3][19]. - The overall industry is under pressure, with a notable divergence in performance across different segments; while the polysilicon segment has managed to achieve operational profitability, the battery and module segments are suffering from intensified losses due to low prices [3][19]. - The price structure within the industry is collapsing, with polysilicon prices dropping from a historical peak of 200,000 yuan per ton to around 52,000 yuan per ton, and module prices decreasing by 40% compared to 2023 [4][20]. - The industry is facing overcapacity issues, with low operating rates and a significant decline in the photovoltaic equipment industry index, which fell over 3% in December 2025 [5][21]. Causes of Losses - The core issue in the photovoltaic industry is a severe supply-demand mismatch, driven by irrational capacity expansion and a price war exacerbated by technological homogeneity [6][21]. - Rising raw material costs, particularly silver prices which surged nearly 150% in 2025, are further squeezing profit margins, with silver paste now constituting approximately 17% of the cost structure for photovoltaic components [8][22][23]. - Changes in the policy environment, including adjustments to export tax rebates and stricter capacity controls, are adding complexity to the industry's challenges [9][24]. Path to Resolution - The industry is beginning a difficult process of self-rescue and transformation, with government support aimed at curbing "involution" competition and encouraging capacity reduction [10][25]. - Leading companies are increasing R&D investments to develop higher-efficiency products, such as TOPCon and BC components, to differentiate themselves in the market [10][25]. - There is a push for capacity consolidation within the industry, with new platforms being established to facilitate this process [10][25]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a phase of consolidation and clearing in 2026, with ongoing policies aimed at reversing involution and gradually reshaping supply-demand dynamics [11][26]. - In the long term, the focus will shift from scale expansion to quality improvement, with leading companies likely to enhance their market share and profitability as weaker players exit the market [11][26].

根据公司于 2026 年 1 月 19 日发布的《通威股份有限公司 2025 年年度业绩预告》，2025 年， 行业阶段性供应过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上 涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。公司报告期内经营性导致归属上市公司所有 者的净利润亏损约 75~80 亿元，同比去年经营性增加亏损约 12~17 亿元。此外，基于会计准则要求 及谨慎性考虑，报告期内公司计提长期资产减值合计约 15~20 亿元，同比增加约 7~12 亿元。公司 预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为-90 亿元至-100 亿元。 针对上述事项，联合资信已与公司取得联系并了解相关情况，并将在获取公司 2025 年度经营 和财务数据后，对公司偿债能力和信用水平进行全面分析和评估。综合评估，联合资信决定维持上 次评级结果不变，公司个体信用等级为 aaa，主体长期信用等级为 AAA，维持"通 22 转债"信用 等级为 AAA，评级展望为稳定。 特此公告 联合〔2026〕510 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司关于通威股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩亏损的关注公告 受通威股份有 ...

通威股份公告称，2025年行业阶段性供应过剩，开工率下行、原材料涨价、产品降价致经营压力大。公 司经营性净利润亏损约75 - 80亿元，同比增亏12 - 17亿元；计提长期资产减值约15 - 20亿元，同比增加 约7 - 12亿元。预计2025年归属于母公司所有者的净利润约为 - 90亿元至 - 100亿元。联合资信与公司沟 通后，维持上次评级结果，公司个体和主体长期信用等级为AAA，"通22转债"信用等级AAA，评级展 望稳定，该转债余额119.83亿元，2028年2月24日到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in photovoltaic technology, specifically focusing on Tongwei's TNC 3.0, which aims to enhance efficiency in solar cells and modules to achieve lower levelized cost of electricity [1][2]. Group 1: Efficiency Improvement - Increasing module efficiency is essential for maximizing output per unit area, which is a key variable in optimizing the value of solar systems [2]. - The enhancement in efficiency leads to greater power generation capability per module, resulting in increased overall system efficiency and reduced costs for supporting materials like brackets and cables [5]. - The direction for efficiency improvement is clear: optimizing the ability of modules to capture sunlight, converting more light into electricity, and minimizing losses during current transmission [5]. Group 2: Multi-Slice Module Technology - Tongwei's focus is not only on immediate performance improvements but also on the long-term stability of efficiency in real-world applications [6]. - Multi-slice module technology has been a significant avenue for enhancing output per unit area, but challenges such as production efficiency and cutting damage must be systematically addressed [6]. - Since the establishment of the multi-slice high-efficiency module R&D project in 2016, Tongwei has made significant breakthroughs in R&D, production, sales, and downstream applications of multi-slice modules [6]. Group 3: Advanced Battery Technology - The TNC 3.0 G12R-66 model achieves a maximum power of 670W with a conversion efficiency of 24.8%, while the G12-66 model reaches 770W with the same efficiency, making it a leader in the industry for 210 modules [7]. - The efficiency gains in TNC 3.0 are not solely dependent on module processes but are built on the integration of multiple key technologies, including 360° passivation high-efficiency batteries [9]. - The 360° passivation battery technology allows for a significant increase in single-cell efficiency to over 26.3% and power output to over 11.6W, contributing to a power gain of over 26.4W for the TNC 3.0 module [10]. Group 4: Long-term Stability and Real-world Application - TNC 3.0 not only achieves improvements in experimental parameters but also establishes a foundation for long-term stable output under real manufacturing and operational conditions [10]. - The true efficiency revolution lies in ensuring that technological breakthroughs are consistently realized in every production cycle, making efficiency improvements a verifiable and sustainable competitive advantage for Tongwei [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a peak in earnings forecasts, with over 500 companies disclosing their 2025 performance predictions, highlighting strong growth in technology sectors driven by AI, while other sectors like photovoltaics and pig farming face challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of January 20, 2025, 525 A-share companies have disclosed earnings forecasts, with around 200 expecting growth and over 100 projecting net profit increases exceeding 100% [2]. - The highest projected net profit increase is from Huisheng Biological, with an expected profit of 235 million to 271 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1265.93% to 1444.54% [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly "hard technology," is showing strong profitability, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure and data storage, with companies like Baiwei Storage expecting a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [6]. - Zijin Mining, a leading mining company, forecasts a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 189 billion to 199 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 59% to 62% [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges in Certain Industries - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, with companies like Tongwei Co. predicting a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan due to market fluctuations and rising raw material prices [8][9]. - In the pig farming sector, companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are forecasting declines in performance, with some expecting losses due to falling pig prices and increased operational costs [9].

A股逐步迎来业绩预告高峰。截至1月20日晚间，已有超过500家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快 报。 良好的业绩推动回盛生物股价大幅攀升。自业绩预告披露后，1月12日至1月20日，回盛生物区间涨幅接 近40%。 在已披露预告的企业中，预计盈利规模最大的是矿业龙头紫金矿业（601899）。早在2025年12月30日， 紫金矿业就率先披露了2025年业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为510亿元至520亿元，同比增加约189 亿元至199亿元，同比增幅59%至62%。 紫金矿业在高基数上保持高速增长，主要得益于其矿产品产量上升，且价格同比上升。2025年，紫金矿 业的矿产金、矿产铜、矿产银价格同比均上升。2025年内，紫金矿业的股价累计涨幅达133%。 除紫金矿业外，洛阳钼业（603993）、药明康德（603259）、立讯精密（002475）、宝丰能源 （600989）等多家公司预计2025年归母净利润规模超百亿元，上述公司盈利规模同比均有明显增长。 2025年，在AI技术的强势赋能下，科技领域多个细分赛道保持高景气态势，产业链上下游大量企业凭 借技术迭代与需求释放，实现了业绩的稳健增长。而光伏、白酒、生猪 ...

Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing a financial crisis, with nearly ten leading companies reporting significant losses for 2025, indicating a downturn across the entire supply chain [1] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity and intense competition, leading to a decline in profitability despite a surge in installation capacity driven by policy changes [1][8] - The cancellation of export tax rebates starting April 1, 2026, is expected to increase cost pressures on companies, intensifying competition and survival challenges [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, marking a significant increase from a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in the previous year, potentially making it the largest loss among disclosed forecasts [3] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a loss of 85.92 billion yuan the previous year [6] - JA Solar Technology is projected to incur a net loss of 45 to 48 billion yuan, which may impact its employee incentive plans due to a significant gap between performance targets and actual results [4] - Aiko Solar anticipates a reduced loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, down from 53.19 billion yuan, attributed to increased sales of high-value products [6] - Daqo New Energy expects a net loss of 10 to 13 billion yuan, while other companies like Junda and Shichuang Energy also project losses due to supply-demand imbalances [7] Market Dynamics - The solar power sector's new installations reached 274.89 GW from January to November 2025, nearing the total for 2024, with expectations to exceed 300 GW for the year [2] - The industry is witnessing a trend of mergers and acquisitions as companies face survival pressures due to limited funding sources [2][12] - The overall industry is characterized by a significant mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity far exceeding actual market needs [8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cancellation of export tax rebates will lead to increased operational pressures in the short term but may encourage a shift towards value competition in the long term [10][11] - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring phase in 2026, with potential for a rebound if excess capacity is reduced and supply-demand balance is restored [12][13]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.9%, while the service sector grew by 5.4%. Retail sales totaled 501202 billion yuan, up by 3.7% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with a notable decline in real estate investment [3] Trade and Investment - Canada has reduced the import tax on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, allowing an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles, which is a significant policy shift aimed at filling market gaps [4][5] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in the Canadian market, which has seen a decline in sales due to high costs and tariffs [5] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with a notable increase in Shanghai, while overall new home sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [6] - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with a significant reduction in new supply and ongoing inventory pressure [7] Mobile Phone Industry - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi and OPPO, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts due to rising storage costs, with reductions exceeding 20% for some brands [8] - The impact of rising storage prices is uneven across manufacturers, with larger firms like Apple and Samsung less affected [9] Solar Industry - Nine leading solar companies, including LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have announced expected losses for 2025, with Tongwei projecting a loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan [10] - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, including high inventory levels and price competition, leading to a prolonged period of losses [11] Wealth Disparity - The global wealth of billionaires reached a record 18.3 trillion USD in 2025, with a 16% increase in total wealth, highlighting a growing wealth gap amid stagnant poverty reduction efforts [12][13] - The AI sector's growth has significantly contributed to the increase in billionaire wealth, while ordinary residents face declining purchasing power due to inflation [13] Space Tourism - A startup has announced the opening of reservations for the world's first lunar hotel, aiming to begin operations by 2032, although the feasibility of such a project remains uncertain [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices is significantly impacting the photovoltaic (PV) industry, leading to increased operational pressures and projected losses for major companies in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Impact - International silver prices have recently surpassed $94 per ounce, contributing to heightened costs for PV companies already facing two years of losses [1]. - The cost of silver has increased over threefold in the past year, now accounting for 29% of the total cost of solar panels, compared to 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year [2]. Group 2: Company Performance Forecasts - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing rising silver prices and declining product prices as key factors [1]. - TCL Zhonghuan, a leading PV silicon wafer manufacturer, expects a net loss between 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan, attributing this to ongoing supply-demand imbalances despite growth in new installations [2]. - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, with significant cost increases in silver paste and silicon materials further straining operations [2]. Group 3: Industry Response - Some component manufacturers have raised prices to reflect the increased costs of silver, while the industry is also exploring technological adjustments to mitigate these pressures [2]. - Longi Green Energy has completed pilot tests for replacing silver paste with cheaper materials and is beginning large-scale production of these alternatives [2].