Core Viewpoint - Several leading photovoltaic companies have announced significant expected losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry due to supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing unresolved supply-demand issues and rising prices of core raw materials [1]. - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, highlighting ongoing low operating rates and increased costs due to rising prices of silver paste and silicon materials [1]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to structural overcapacity and sustained low product prices [1]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, contributing to a total expected loss of over 28.9 billion yuan for these five leading companies [3]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant price fluctuations since 2025, leading to widespread losses among companies [4]. - The Chinese government plans to strengthen capacity regulation and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to address the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. - Experts suggest that merely relying on government initiatives may not be sufficient, and additional measures may be necessary to stabilize the industry [4][5]. - The industry has experienced a continuous loss trend for eight quarters, with a 33% reduction in workforce in 2024, and an increase in average interest-bearing debt ratio from 23% to 31% [5].

爱旭股份 预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损为 12—19亿元 。公司表示， 受行业结构性产能过剩影响，供需失衡状况仍未显著改善，主要产品价格持续处于相对低位， 公司全年经营承压。 此前，已有多家光伏企业公告预亏。 记者丨刘雪莹 冉黎黎 编辑丨曾静娇 昨夜，多家光伏龙头公告业绩预亏。 1月18日晚， 通威股份 业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润亏损 90亿元至100亿元 。 通威股份表示，光伏行业阶段性供需矛盾问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节 开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍 然显著。 同日， 隆基绿能 公告， 预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净亏损为 60亿元到65亿元 。公司指出，2025年光伏行业供需错配、低价内卷式竞争持续，开工率维持低位，同时国内电 力市场化改革不断深入，海外贸易壁垒持续加剧，光伏企业经营环境严峻复杂。四季度银浆、 硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本，企业经营进一步承压。 据《中国能源报》报道，根据中国光伏行业协会的数据，2025年以来，光伏供应链价格波动明 显， 电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The annual report disclosure season is approaching, with several companies releasing their performance forecasts for 2025, showing mixed results in terms of profit expectations. Group 1: Companies with Profit Increases - Iola Home is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78% to 56.42% [2] - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of about 2.008 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 406% [4] - Okoyi expects a net profit of around 96 million to 110 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 67.53% to 91.96% [5] - Rui Ming Technology forecasts a net profit of approximately 37 million to 40 million yuan, indicating a growth of 27.58% to 37.92% [2] - Iola Home's strategic focus on mid-to-high-end brand differentiation and channel optimization has led to improved operational efficiency and steady growth in performance [6] Group 2: Companies with Continued Losses - Longi Green Energy predicts a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, citing ongoing challenges in the photovoltaic industry, including supply-demand mismatches and rising costs [2][3] - Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of approximately 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, with losses exacerbated by low market prices and increased costs in its industrial silicon and battery businesses [3] - Tiandi Source anticipates a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan, impacted by the overall real estate market conditions and inventory impairment [4] - The company has indicated that its revenue and gross profit contributions are decreasing due to reduced sales and project completions [4] - Longi Green Energy's operational challenges are attributed to low operating rates and increased costs from raw materials, leading to sustained losses in 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant net loss for the year 2025, with projected losses between 90 billion to 100 billion yuan, indicating a worsening financial situation compared to the previous year [2][4]. Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [3]. - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be approximately -90 billion to -100 billion yuan [2][4]. Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -70.39 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -70.57 billion yuan [5]. Reasons for Expected Loss - The primary reasons for the expected loss include: - The overall growth in new photovoltaic installations has slowed significantly in the second half of the year, leading to a temporary oversupply in the industry [7]. - The company's operational losses attributable to the parent company are estimated to be around 75-80 billion yuan, an increase of 12-17 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7]. - The industrial silicon business faced challenges due to production ramp-up and low market prices, contributing to a worsening loss of approximately 9 billion yuan [7]. - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to reduce losses by about 6 billion yuan through operational optimizations [7]. - The battery and module business experienced further price declines, exacerbating losses by approximately 12 billion yuan [7]. Asset Impairment - The company has recognized long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 15-20 billion yuan, an increase of 7-12 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [8]. Industry Outlook - Despite being at the bottom of the industry cycle, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and continues to focus on technological research and cost reduction [9]. - The company maintains strong core competencies in technology, cost management, and operations, with sufficient cash reserves to navigate market fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and Aiko Solar all forecasting substantial net losses for 2025, indicating a challenging market environment driven by overcapacity and rising raw material costs [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, citing increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key factors [1]. - Tongwei Co. is projected to incur a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission impacting profitability [1]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan for 2025, while TCL Zhonghuan expects a loss of 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, both companies highlighting the impact of structural overcapacity on their operations [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic sector has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances exacerbating the situation [2]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for capacity clearing and structural optimization, suggesting that companies must move beyond simple production cuts to enhance competitive advantages through technology and product differentiation [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of Yida Energy marks a significant step towards industry consolidation, aiming to optimize resources and foster collaboration, which could help the sector transition from low-level competition to value co-creation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing widespread losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. both forecasting significant net losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected loss of 68 to 74 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items [2][5]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - Aiko Solar predicts a net loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, citing structural overcapacity and ongoing price pressures [7]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment phase, with supply-demand mismatches and intense price competition leading to sustained low operating rates [5][8]. - Rising costs of raw materials, such as silver and silicon, have further pressured profit margins, contributing to the overall losses in the sector [5][6]. - The industry is expected to undergo a reshaping process in 2026 as "anti-involution" measures take effect, potentially restoring supply-demand balance and improving pricing [1][10]. Group 3: Price Trends - Recent data indicates an increase in photovoltaic component prices, with TOPCon and BC components seeing price adjustments due to changes in export tax policies and rising silver prices [1][10]. - The average transaction price for distributed photovoltaic components has reached between 0.67 yuan/watt and 0.8 yuan/watt, with an average of 0.72 yuan/watt [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that policy adjustments may accelerate industry consolidation and capacity elimination, with leading Chinese battery companies likely to enhance their global competitiveness in the long term [11].

Group 1: Company Forecasts - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of approximately 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for the year 2025, citing industry challenges such as supply surplus and rising raw material prices [7] - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to ongoing low operating rates and intensified competition in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Environment - The State Council is focusing on measures to boost consumption and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers, indicating a proactive approach to economic stability [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes maintaining market stability and preventing excessive speculation, aiming to foster a healthy investment environment [2] - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, reflecting a tightening of credit conditions [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is not seeking a "crazy bull" but rather a "slow bull" for sustainable growth, emphasizing the importance of companies improving operational quality and transparency [3] - The market is expected to experience a phase of adjustment following a period of high trading activity, with a focus on performance disclosures as earnings reports begin to be released [11][20] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors with solid fundamentals, such as technology and industrial metals, while also considering consumer services and non-bank financials as key areas of interest [15][18]

【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判。通威股份：预计2025年净亏损90亿元至 100亿元；隆基绿能：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元。 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，马上就要开盘了，一起回顾周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 国常会：听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报 研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措 国务院总理李强1月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研 究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措，部署做好清理拖欠企业账款行动和保障农民工 工资支付有关工作，审议通过《国务院关于修改和废止部分行政法规的决定（草案）》。 证监会：坚持稳字当头、巩固市场稳中向好势头 严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规 行为、坚决防止市场大起大落 证监会2026年度工作会议强调，坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。全方位加强市场监 测预警，及时做好逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，进一步维护交易公平性，严 肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。继续深化公募基金 改革，持续拓宽中长期资金来源渠道和方式，推出各类适配长期投资的产品和风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the earnings forecasts for several listed companies, highlighting a mixed performance with some companies expecting profit increases while others anticipate continued losses in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - ILe Home is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78% to 56.42% [2]. - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of about 2.008 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 406% [2]. - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, with a decline of 24.58% to 30.38% [2]. - Gui Guang Network expects a net loss of approximately 1.35 billion to 1.07 billion yuan, with a change of -24.51% to 1.31% [2]. - Ruiming Technology predicts a slight profit increase with a net profit of around 37 million to 40 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.58% to 37.92% [2]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 1.9 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.28% to 77.44% [2]. - Okoyi expects a net profit of approximately 96 million to 110 million yuan, with a growth of 67.53% to 91.96% [2]. - Tiandi Source forecasts a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan, with a change of -32.36% to 11.76% [2]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, with a decline of 27.86% to 42.07% [2]. - Lida New Materials expects a net loss of 36 million to 26 million yuan, with a change of -5.18% to 24.04% [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Longi Green Energy cites ongoing supply-demand mismatches in the photovoltaic industry, persistent low-price competition, and rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key challenges impacting its performance [2]. - Tongwei Co. indicates that its silicon business is affected by production ramp-up and low market prices, leading to increased losses [3]. - Tiandi Source mentions that the overall real estate market conditions are negatively impacting its project sales and revenue [4]. Group 3: Positive Performers - Guolian Minsheng's significant profit increase is attributed to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in its securities investment and wealth management businesses [4]. - Okoyi's profit growth is driven by rising prices of raw materials and successful product upgrades in its hard alloy tool segment [5]. - ILe Home's profit increase is linked to its differentiated brand strategy and improved operational efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2025 to be approximately -9 billion to -10 billion yuan, indicating significant operational challenges in the photovoltaic industry [1][4][17]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [5]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be around -9 billion to -10 billion yuan, both including and excluding non-recurring gains and losses [4][18]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.039 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share of -1.5790 yuan [6][19]. Group 3: Reasons for Expected Loss - The overall installed capacity in the photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, but there is a noticeable slowdown in the second half of the year, with ongoing supply surplus issues and declining operating rates across the industry [8][21]. - The company estimates an operational loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan, which is an increase in operational losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][21]. - The industrial silicon business is expected to face intensified losses due to production ramp-up and low market prices, contributing to a year-on-year increase in losses of about 900 million yuan [8][21]. - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to achieve operational profitability in the second half of the year, reducing losses by approximately 600 million yuan [8][21]. - The battery and module business is expected to see further declines in average selling prices, exacerbating losses by about 1.2 billion yuan [8][21]. Group 4: Asset Impairment and Future Outlook - The company plans to recognize long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, an increase of about 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [9][22]. - Despite being at the bottom of the industry cycle, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and is committed to technological research and cost reduction [9][22].