Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing widespread losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. both forecasting significant net losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected loss of 68 to 74 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items [2][5]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - Aiko Solar predicts a net loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, citing structural overcapacity and ongoing price pressures [7]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment phase, with supply-demand mismatches and intense price competition leading to sustained low operating rates [5][8]. - Rising costs of raw materials, such as silver and silicon, have further pressured profit margins, contributing to the overall losses in the sector [5][6]. - The industry is expected to undergo a reshaping process in 2026 as "anti-involution" measures take effect, potentially restoring supply-demand balance and improving pricing [1][10]. Group 3: Price Trends - Recent data indicates an increase in photovoltaic component prices, with TOPCon and BC components seeing price adjustments due to changes in export tax policies and rising silver prices [1][10]. - The average transaction price for distributed photovoltaic components has reached between 0.67 yuan/watt and 0.8 yuan/watt, with an average of 0.72 yuan/watt [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that policy adjustments may accelerate industry consolidation and capacity elimination, with leading Chinese battery companies likely to enhance their global competitiveness in the long term [11].

【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判。通威股份（600438）：预计2025年净亏损90亿元至 100亿元；隆基绿能（601012）：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元。 大家好，马上就要开盘了，一起回顾周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 国常会：听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报 研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日联合发布通知称，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷 款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。中国人民银行各省级分行、国家金融监督管理总局各省级派出机 构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原则，在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定 辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 证监会对容百科技重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查 据证监会官网，2026年1月14日，宁波容百新能源科技股份有限公司（以下简称容百科技）披露日常经 营重大合同的公告，涉嫌误导性陈述。近日，证监会已对容百科技立案调查。下一步，将在全面调查的 基础上依法处理，切实维护市场健康稳定发展。 隆基绿能：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元 隆基绿能1月18日公告 ...

【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判。通威股份：预计2025年净亏损90亿元至 100亿元；隆基绿能：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元。 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，马上就要开盘了，一起回顾周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 国常会：听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报 研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措 国务院总理李强1月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研 究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措，部署做好清理拖欠企业账款行动和保障农民工 工资支付有关工作，审议通过《国务院关于修改和废止部分行政法规的决定（草案）》。 证监会：坚持稳字当头、巩固市场稳中向好势头 严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规 行为、坚决防止市场大起大落 证监会2026年度工作会议强调，坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。全方位加强市场监 测预警，及时做好逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，进一步维护交易公平性，严 肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。继续深化公募基金 改革，持续拓宽中长期资金来源渠道和方式，推出各类适配长期投资的产品和风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the earnings forecasts for several listed companies, highlighting a mixed performance with some companies expecting profit increases while others anticipate continued losses in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - ILe Home is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78% to 56.42% [2]. - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of about 2.008 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 406% [2]. - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, with a decline of 24.58% to 30.38% [2]. - Gui Guang Network expects a net loss of approximately 1.35 billion to 1.07 billion yuan, with a change of -24.51% to 1.31% [2]. - Ruiming Technology predicts a slight profit increase with a net profit of around 37 million to 40 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.58% to 37.92% [2]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 1.9 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.28% to 77.44% [2]. - Okoyi expects a net profit of approximately 96 million to 110 million yuan, with a growth of 67.53% to 91.96% [2]. - Tiandi Source forecasts a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan, with a change of -32.36% to 11.76% [2]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, with a decline of 27.86% to 42.07% [2]. - Lida New Materials expects a net loss of 36 million to 26 million yuan, with a change of -5.18% to 24.04% [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Longi Green Energy cites ongoing supply-demand mismatches in the photovoltaic industry, persistent low-price competition, and rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key challenges impacting its performance [2]. - Tongwei Co. indicates that its silicon business is affected by production ramp-up and low market prices, leading to increased losses [3]. - Tiandi Source mentions that the overall real estate market conditions are negatively impacting its project sales and revenue [4]. Group 3: Positive Performers - Guolian Minsheng's significant profit increase is attributed to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in its securities investment and wealth management businesses [4]. - Okoyi's profit growth is driven by rising prices of raw materials and successful product upgrades in its hard alloy tool segment [5]. - ILe Home's profit increase is linked to its differentiated brand strategy and improved operational efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2025 to be approximately -9 billion to -10 billion yuan, indicating significant operational challenges in the photovoltaic industry [1][4][17]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [5]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be around -9 billion to -10 billion yuan, both including and excluding non-recurring gains and losses [4][18]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.039 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share of -1.5790 yuan [6][19]. Group 3: Reasons for Expected Loss - The overall installed capacity in the photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, but there is a noticeable slowdown in the second half of the year, with ongoing supply surplus issues and declining operating rates across the industry [8][21]. - The company estimates an operational loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan, which is an increase in operational losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][21]. - The industrial silicon business is expected to face intensified losses due to production ramp-up and low market prices, contributing to a year-on-year increase in losses of about 900 million yuan [8][21]. - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to achieve operational profitability in the second half of the year, reducing losses by approximately 600 million yuan [8][21]. - The battery and module business is expected to see further declines in average selling prices, exacerbating losses by about 1.2 billion yuan [8][21]. Group 4: Asset Impairment and Future Outlook - The company plans to recognize long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, an increase of about 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [9][22]. - Despite being at the bottom of the industry cycle, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and is committed to technological research and cost reduction [9][22].

Group 1 - Fenglong Co., Ltd. has completed the suspension review and will resume trading on January 19 [1] - Rongbai Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for potentially misleading statements regarding a major contract [1] - Rongbai Technology estimates a total contract amount of 120 billion yuan with CATL [1] Group 2 - Minexplosion Optoelectronics is planning to acquire Xiazhi Precision and Jiangxi Maida, both of which focus on core consumables in PCB manufacturing [1] - Yanjing Co., Ltd. intends to purchase 98.54% equity of Yongqiang Technology, expanding its business into high-end electronic interconnection materials for integrated circuits [1] Group 3 - Tianyuan Intelligent's actual controller and chairman, Wu Yizhong, has been detained [1] - Tiantie Technology's actual controller, Xu Jiding, has had his compulsory measures changed to bail pending trial [1] Group 4 - Guolian Minsheng expects a net profit increase of approximately 406% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Oke Yi anticipates a net profit increase of 67.53% to 91.96% year-on-year for 2025 [1] Group 5 - Tiandi Source forecasts a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Gui Guang Network expects a net loss of 1.07 billion to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025 [1] Group 6 - Weisi Medical's actual controller's concerted action party plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1] - Chuhuan Technology's pre-IPO employee stock ownership platform intends to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1] - Sandam Membrane's Qingyuan China plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1]

Key Points - The State Council is focusing on measures to boost consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, while also addressing overdue payments to enterprises and ensuring wage payments to migrant workers [2] - The tax authority is reminding taxpayers to self-check their overseas income for the past three years, with potential penalties for non-compliance [3] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been adjusted to no less than 30% [4] - Public rental housing tax incentives have been extended, including exemptions from land use tax and stamp duty for public rental housing projects [5] - China's annual electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is more than double that of the United States [6] - Public pension funds can now be redeemed early without holding period restrictions, which is a positive development for investors [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is emphasizing market stability and fair trading, while also addressing excessive speculation and market manipulation [8][9] - The CSRC is seeking public opinions on the draft regulations for derivative trading supervision to promote a healthy development of the derivatives market [9] - Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan for 2025 due to industry challenges, including supply chain issues and rising raw material costs [11] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, citing ongoing low prices and cost pressures in the photovoltaic industry [13] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on goods from eight European countries, which may impact international trade dynamics [14] - Iran has dismantled a spy organization linked to unrest, highlighting geopolitical tensions [15] Industry Insights - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, supported by policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging rational investment [25] - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with a focus on performance-driven investments as the narrative-driven trends fade [24] - The technology sector is anticipated to undergo a two-phase upward trend, with the first phase focusing on structural opportunities and the second phase driven by cyclical improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [26]

光伏龙头业绩预亏。 光伏产业周期调整持续，行业内多家上市公司预亏。1月18日晚间，光伏龙头隆基绿能(601012)、通威股份(600438)，以及爱旭股份(600732)均披露了预计 2025年业绩亏损的公告。从公告来看，这三家龙头去年预计亏损合计超160亿元。 从行业龙头的业绩预告中看到，在价格竞争激烈、海外贸易环境复杂等多重压力下，行业仍处于周期下行的深度调整阶段。 业绩预亏 隆基绿能 隆基绿能业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为60亿元到65亿元。 | 股票代码:601012 | 股票简称:隆基绿能 | 公告编号:临 2026-003 号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113053 | 债券简称:隆 22 转债 | | | 债券代码:244101 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 01 | | | 债券代码:244386 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 02 | | 通威股份业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损90亿元至100亿元。 | 股票代码:600438 | | --- | | 债券代码:110085 | 隆基绿能表示，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the overall sector still in a state of loss, as evidenced by the recent earnings forecasts from major companies indicating significant expected losses for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials [3]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates the highest loss among the companies, with a projected net loss of 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for 2025, despite some performance improvement from rising polysilicon prices [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) forecasts a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission [2][3]. - JA Solar (晶澳科技) and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) expect net losses of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan and 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively, citing structural overcapacity as a significant challenge [3]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) and JinkoSolar (晶科能源) have not disclosed specific loss amounts but have indicated continued losses for 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The losses among these nine major companies are correlated with their production capacity, indicating that larger companies are experiencing greater losses [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to a competition based on the ability to reduce losses, with Tongwei being the only company to see an increase in loss magnitude for 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall industry has faced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Companies are urged to break away from homogeneous competition and build comprehensive advantages through technology, products, and ecosystems [4].

重点关注 央行： 自2026年1月19日起下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点 2025年国民经济运行数据将公布 证监会对容百科技重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查 宏观 •要闻 2025 年国民经济运行数据将公布 国新办将于 1 月 19 日上午 10 时举行新闻发布会，国家统计局局长康义介绍 2025 年国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 税务部门提醒纳税人对近三年境外所得开展自查 记者 1 月 16 日从国家税务总局有关部门获悉，税务机关持续加强对居民个人境外所得纳税的宣传辅导，去年以来提醒纳税人对 2022 年 至 2024 年从境外取得的收入进行自查。按照税收征管法等法律法规规定，因纳税人不进行纳税申报或计算错误造成不缴或少缴税款的， 税务机关在三年内可以追征税款、滞纳金；构成偷税的，依法进行处理。 特朗普宣布将对欧洲 8 国加征关税 特朗普宣布将对欧洲8国加征关税融资保证金比例新规将实施 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周六 (1 月 17 日 ) ，美国总统特朗普宣布，自 2026 年 2 月 1 日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英 国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征 10% 的关税。自 2026 ...