光伏龙头业绩预亏。 光伏产业周期调整持续，行业内多家上市公司预亏。1月18日晚间，光伏龙头隆基绿能(601012)、通威股份(600438)，以及爱旭股份(600732)均披露了预计 2025年业绩亏损的公告。从公告来看，这三家龙头去年预计亏损合计超160亿元。 从行业龙头的业绩预告中看到，在价格竞争激烈、海外贸易环境复杂等多重压力下，行业仍处于周期下行的深度调整阶段。 业绩预亏 隆基绿能 隆基绿能业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为60亿元到65亿元。 | 股票代码:601012 | 股票简称:隆基绿能 | 公告编号:临 2026-003 号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113053 | 债券简称:隆 22 转债 | | | 债券代码:244101 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 01 | | | 债券代码:244386 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 02 | | 通威股份业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损90亿元至100亿元。 | 股票代码:600438 | | --- | | 债券代码:110085 | 隆基绿能表示，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the overall sector still in a state of loss, as evidenced by the recent earnings forecasts from major companies indicating significant expected losses for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials [3]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates the highest loss among the companies, with a projected net loss of 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for 2025, despite some performance improvement from rising polysilicon prices [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) forecasts a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission [2][3]. - JA Solar (晶澳科技) and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) expect net losses of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan and 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively, citing structural overcapacity as a significant challenge [3]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) and JinkoSolar (晶科能源) have not disclosed specific loss amounts but have indicated continued losses for 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The losses among these nine major companies are correlated with their production capacity, indicating that larger companies are experiencing greater losses [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to a competition based on the ability to reduce losses, with Tongwei being the only company to see an increase in loss magnitude for 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall industry has faced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Companies are urged to break away from homogeneous competition and build comprehensive advantages through technology, products, and ecosystems [4].

重点关注 央行： 自2026年1月19日起下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点 2025年国民经济运行数据将公布 证监会对容百科技重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查 宏观 •要闻 2025 年国民经济运行数据将公布 国新办将于 1 月 19 日上午 10 时举行新闻发布会，国家统计局局长康义介绍 2025 年国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 税务部门提醒纳税人对近三年境外所得开展自查 记者 1 月 16 日从国家税务总局有关部门获悉，税务机关持续加强对居民个人境外所得纳税的宣传辅导，去年以来提醒纳税人对 2022 年 至 2024 年从境外取得的收入进行自查。按照税收征管法等法律法规规定，因纳税人不进行纳税申报或计算错误造成不缴或少缴税款的， 税务机关在三年内可以追征税款、滞纳金；构成偷税的，依法进行处理。 特朗普宣布将对欧洲 8 国加征关税 特朗普宣布将对欧洲8国加征关税融资保证金比例新规将实施 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周六 (1 月 17 日 ) ，美国总统特朗普宣布，自 2026 年 2 月 1 日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英 国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征 10% 的关税。自 2026 ...

Macro and Financial - The central bank has injected medium-term liquidity into the market through reverse repos for the eighth consecutive month [2] - The State Grid's fixed asset investment plan for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9] - The financing margin ratio has returned to 100% after two years, but historical data shows that changes in this ratio do not significantly impact market trends [2][17] - Several photovoltaic listed companies are expected to report losses [22] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the first derivative trading supervision regulations [13] - Over 460 billion yuan in market value of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with the largest unlocks from companies like Xingtu Measurement and Shanxi Coking Coal [18] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Zhenstone Co., Ltd. and Nongda Technology [18] - The first annual report for 2025 will be released by WoHua Pharmaceutical, projecting a net profit of 80 million to 115 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.76% to 215.90% [19] Business and Industry - A record financing of 1 billion yuan was completed by a private nuclear fusion company, Xinghuan Jieneng [20] - Strong Brain Technology is rumored to have secretly submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [20] - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables centralized procurement has been opened, with 202 companies' products expected to be selected [21] - China's automotive production and sales are projected to exceed 34 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic sales [21] - Multiple photovoltaic companies, including Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy, are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with estimated losses of 9 to 10 billion yuan and 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, respectively [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in polysilicon futures prices entering 2026, with a year-to-date drop of 13.92% as of January 16, 2026, erasing gains since August 2025 and repeatedly falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have sharply decreased, with the weighted index's open interest falling below 90,000 contracts, only about 20% of last year's peak of 444,400 contracts [2][12]. - The recent price drop is attributed to weak supply and demand dynamics, alongside panic selling triggered by rumors of antitrust actions affecting major polysilicon producers [2][4][6]. Policy Impact - A new policy from China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, effective April 1, 2026, will eliminate VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products, which may lead to short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the photovoltaic industry in the long run [4][10]. - In anticipation of this policy, prices for various photovoltaic products have increased, but polysilicon futures have not followed suit, indicating market disruptions [4][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - January 2026 polysilicon production is estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [6][10]. - The production of downstream components, such as battery cells and modules, has also decreased, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market rumors regarding antitrust measures have amplified market volatility, leading to a rapid exit of long positions and contributing to the price decline [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that market participants should verify the authenticity of such rumors and consider the fundamental supply-demand conditions before making investment decisions [6][9]. Industry Challenges - The article highlights that regardless of market rumors, polysilicon prices were likely to decline due to the unsustainable price increases seen in 2025, which have not been matched by price increases in other segments of the photovoltaic supply chain [8][9]. - Companies in the downstream photovoltaic sector, such as TCL Zhonghuan, have reported significant losses due to the rising costs of polysilicon, which have not been adequately passed down the supply chain [9][10]. Regulatory Environment - The recent tightening of trading regulations by the exchange aims to curb speculative trading, which has contributed to the decline in trading volume and open interest in polysilicon futures [12][13]. - There are concerns that polysilicon futures could become marginalized, similar to the fate of coal futures, but analysts believe that the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry will prevent this outcome [12][13].

光伏行业龙头企业2025年业绩预亏潮继续蔓延。1月18日，通威股份和隆基绿能相继披露年度业绩预告，分别预计净亏损90—100亿元和60—65亿元，标志着 行业深度调整仍在持续。 此前，硅料龙头大全能源、组件巨头晶科能源、天合光能已相继披露2025年全年业绩预亏。这些头部企业的集中亏损，直接反映出光伏产业在产能过剩、价 格竞争激烈、海外贸易壁垒加剧等多重压力下，仍处于周期下行的深度调整阶段。 从二级市场表现看，大全能源、通威股份等龙头股纷纷创下近半年新低，反映出资金对光伏板块估值的谨慎态度。隆基绿能在业绩预告中指出，四季度银 浆、硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了产品成本，使得企业经营进一步承压。 市场监管总局1月6日的专题约谈会，直指光伏硅料行业"自律联盟"涉嫌垄断，要求暂停所有限产、限价相关的自律行为，意味着行业短暂建立的"反内卷防 线"被击穿，市场重新回到自由竞争状态。 亏损来源各异，产业链全线承压 从具体业务看，龙头企业亏损来源呈现差异化特征。通威股份披露，工业硅业务在产能投产爬坡调试及产品价格持续低迷影响下，导致净利润亏损同比加剧 约9亿元；电池及组件业务销售均价受市场行情影响进一步下跌，硅片-电池-组件业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon prices and trading volumes is attributed to weak supply-demand dynamics and market rumors regarding antitrust issues, leading to panic selling among investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 16, polysilicon futures have seen a year-to-date decline of 13.92%, erasing gains since August and frequently falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have significantly decreased, with open interest dropping to around 84,296 contracts, only 20% of last year's peak [9]. - The recent market sentiment has been exacerbated by rumors of antitrust actions against leading polysilicon companies, causing further panic among investors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of polysilicon remains high, with January production estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply [4]. - Downstream production rates for solar cells and modules have also decreased, reflecting weak end-user demand [4]. - The overall market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is pressuring prices and leading to inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The Chinese government announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may create short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the industry in the long run [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to alleviate price competition within the photovoltaic industry, but the recent price surge in polysilicon has not been matched by increases in other segments, leading to operational pressures on downstream companies [6][7]. Group 4: Trading Regulations - The recent decline in trading volumes is partly due to the exchange implementing stricter risk control measures to curb speculative trading, which has raised transaction costs and reduced arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for polysilicon futures to become a "zombie product" similar to coal futures if trading continues to cool [9]. - Despite current challenges, the futures market is expected to remain relevant due to the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry in China [10].

北京商报讯（记者 王蔓蕾）1月18日，通威股份（600438）披露公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属 净利润约为-100亿元至-90亿元。 通威股份表示，报告期内，光伏新增装机规模总体维持同比增长，但下半年明显放缓，行业阶段性供应 过剩问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继 续下跌，行业经营压力仍然显著。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately -90.00 billion to -100.00 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to industry challenges such as supply surplus, rising raw material prices, and declining product prices [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately -75 to -80 billion yuan from operations, which is an increase in operational losses of about 12 to 17 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon segment is expected to exacerbate net losses by approximately 9 billion yuan due to production ramp-up and low market prices [1] - The polysilicon business, despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price, managed to reduce operational losses by about 6 billion yuan through optimized production and cost reduction efforts [1] Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a slowdown in new installations in the second half of the year, contributing to significant operational pressure [1] - The average selling price of battery and component businesses has further declined, leading to an increase in net losses by approximately 12 billion yuan [1] Asset Impairment - The company has recognized long-term asset impairments totaling approximately 15 to 20 billion yuan, an increase of about 7 to 12 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [1] - Impairments include around 10 billion yuan related to certain photovoltaic power station businesses [1] Strategic Outlook - Despite current industry challenges, the company remains optimistic about the photovoltaic sector's growth potential and is committed to technological development and cost efficiency [1] - The company maintains strong core competencies in technology, cost management, and operations, with sufficient cash reserves to navigate market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the year 2025, estimated between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan due to operational reasons, which represents an increase in losses of about 1.2 billion to 1.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The industrial silicon business is expected to exacerbate the net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 900 million yuan due to capacity ramp-up and ongoing low market prices [1] - Despite a decline in sales volume and average selling price in the polysilicon business, the company managed to reduce losses by about 600 million yuan year-on-year through optimized operating rates and cost reduction efforts, achieving operational profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The battery and module business has seen a further decline in average selling prices due to market conditions, contributing to an increase in net profit loss attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The photovoltaic power station, feed, and industrial chain businesses are performing steadily, continuing to contribute profits to the company [1]