送及花业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2025 年 09 月 25 日 版灵 行业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 反内卷再出新政策, 相关研究 券研究培 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com 事件: 9 月 24 日国家能源局局长王宏志在学习时报发表的署名文章《以更大力度推动我国新 能源高质量发展》，为光伏产业当前面临的困境指明了出路。文章直指产业痛点，提出以技 术创新驱动降本增效,专项整治光伏产业"内卷式"竞争,推动新能源从单一电力消纳向多 能综合利用转变。 申万宏源研究微信服务号 向明确 -光伏反内卷点评 明确光伏消纳发展路径转变,从单一消纳转向多能综合利用。文章提出了明确的发展路 ● 径的转变："坚持电与非电并重，推动新能源从单一电力消纳向多能综合利用转变"。 这一转变对缓解当前光伏消纳压力具有重要意义。2025 年 1—7 月,全国光伏发电利 用率为 94.7%，同 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry from a single energy consumption model to a multi-energy comprehensive utilization model, which is crucial for alleviating current PV consumption pressures [2][3] - Future development of renewable energy is expected to transition from a "resource-oriented" approach to a "market-oriented" approach, emphasizing cost control and operational efficiency over mere resource availability [2] - Key measures to break the "involution" in the industry include policy coordination and technological innovation, which are essential for addressing the supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [2] Summary by Sections Industry Transition - The article emphasizes the need for a transition in the PV industry towards multi-energy utilization, particularly highlighting the importance of hydrogen production from renewable sources [2] - The utilization rate of PV power generation in China was reported at 94.7% for January to July 2025, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on the power system [2] Market Dynamics - The report stresses that the competitiveness of PV power stations will increasingly depend on market capabilities such as cost control and bidding strategies rather than just resource conditions [2] - The current challenges faced by renewable energy in the power market include weak bargaining power and exposure to price volatility, leading to situations where companies experience "increased output without increased revenue" [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the "involution" reversal, particularly in the silicon material segment, including companies like GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [2] - It also highlights the importance of new technology firms such as Aiko Solar in the evolving market landscape [2] Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided for key companies in the power equipment sector, detailing their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 [3]

Core Insights - The Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has seen its GDP grow from less than 6.3 trillion yuan in 2019 to 8.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking an increase in its share of the national economy from 6.3% to 6.5% [1] - The brand value of listed companies in the Chengdu-Chongqing region has significantly increased, with Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao leading the rankings [2][3] Company Insights - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) ranks first with a brand value of 305.96 billion yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) at 107.67 billion yuan, and Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) at 84.56 billion yuan [2][3] - The beverage industry in the Chengdu-Chongqing region has seen a brand value increase of 117.02 billion yuan over the past four years, making it the highest among all industries [6][8] Industry Insights - The automotive industry in the region has surpassed a brand value of 100 billion yuan, reaching 123.15 billion yuan in 2025 [6][8] - The equipment industry has doubled the number of listed companies over the past four years, indicating a significant growth in this sector [8][10] - The agricultural sector has experienced a decline in brand value, primarily due to the shift of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) from agriculture to the equipment sector [6][8] Regional Insights - Chengdu has the highest increase in both the total brand value of listed companies and the number of companies listed over the past four years [4][5] - The Chengdu-Chongqing region serves as a strategic support for the Yangtze River Economic Belt and is a key demonstration area for the country's new urbanization efforts [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a reduction in losses, with cost reduction and overseas expansion forming the foundation for recovery [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -4.955 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss [7] - The report highlights the company's leading position in the industry, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, as well as successful overseas market expansion [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 91.994 billion, 94.447 billion, 116.194 billion, and 130.164 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -33.9%, 2.7%, 23.0%, and 12.0% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.039 billion, -5.808 billion, 2.785 billion, and 5.211 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -151.9%, 17.5%, 148.0%, and 87.1% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -1.56, -1.29, 0.62, and 1.16 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] Operational Highlights - The company has achieved a 90% shipment ratio of N-type products in the polysilicon segment, with silicon consumption reduced to below 1.04 kg/kg.si [7] - In the battery segment, the company continues to lead in key competitive indicators such as A-grade rate and conversion efficiency, with a focus on the mass production of new technologies [7] - The company sold 16.13 million tons of polysilicon, maintaining a global market share of approximately 30%, and achieved a battery sales volume of 49.89 GW, continuing to hold the global first position [7] Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized as a dual leader in silicon materials and battery cells, with successful overseas market expansion in the component business [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts, expecting net profits of -5.808 billion, 2.785 billion, and 5.211 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of -17, 35, and 19 times [7] - The target price is set at 27.84 yuan, based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in key stocks and ETFs, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][4]. Market Performance - As of September 25, 2025, the China Securities New Energy Index rose by 1.34%, with notable stocks such as TCL Zhonghuan hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Tongsheng Technology and Enjie Co., Ltd. also showing substantial increases [1]. - The New Energy ETF (159875) increased by 1.27%, marking its third consecutive day of gains [1]. ETF Insights - The New Energy ETF had a turnover rate of 7.58% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 83.975 million yuan [4]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ETF's total size reached 1.082 billion yuan, with a cumulative inflow of 24.6957 million yuan over the past 18 trading days [4]. - The ETF's net value increased by 58.85% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 25.07% and an average monthly return of 8.03% [4]. Industry Trends - Guoyuan Securities highlighted that the recent "anti-involution" actions in the photovoltaic industry have reached the highest strategic level, focusing on capacity integration in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the industry [4]. - The industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with future policy measures expected to be a key variable influencing market trends [4]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to enter a phase of high-quality development, with technological upgrades and market structure optimization becoming core competitive factors [4]. Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on silicon materials, glass, and battery segments that have undergone sufficient corrections and have clear alpha potential, as well as new technologies and leading manufacturers in the supply chain [4][5].

Core Insights - The Zhongzheng Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) has shown a strong increase of 1.69% as of September 25, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as TCL Zhonghuan (10.06%) and Jingsheng Mechanical Electrical (5.20%) [1] - The Photovoltaic ETF Fund (516180) has also risen by 1.86%, with a latest price of 0.77 yuan, reflecting a 0.27% increase over the past week [1] - The index comprises up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain, aiming to reflect the overall performance of these securities [1] Company Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Photovoltaic Industry Index as of August 29, 2025, include Yangguang Electric (10.51%), Longi Green Energy (9.97%), and TCL Technology (9.42%), collectively accounting for 56.14% of the index [2] - The performance of individual stocks shows varied results, with TCL Zhonghuan leading with a 10.06% increase, while TBEA (−0.43%) and Zhengtai Electric (−0.46%) experienced declines [4]

一场以能效为标尺的行业洗牌正在多晶硅领域上演。头部企业凭借技术优势获得发展先机，而落后产能 则面临退出市场的命运。 该标准正式实施后，多晶硅单位产品能耗不达基准值要求（6.4kgce/kg）的企业将被限期整改，逾期未 改或整改后未达准入值（5.5kgce/kg）的企业将被关停。 9月22日，一位头部多晶硅企业工作人员告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，"新能耗标准将推动行业落后产能清 退，即便是我们这样的头部企业，也存在需要淘汰的落后产能，可以预见会有相当一部分企业受到较大 影响。" 能耗新标呈现"大幅收紧"特征 对于多晶硅生产企业来说，新能耗标准意味着生存红线的重新划定。 最新意见稿称，拟修订的多晶硅单位产品综合能耗1级、2级、3级分别≤5、5.5和6.4kgce/kg，相比目前 正在执行的≤7.5、8.5和10.5kgce/kg大幅收紧。 图片 按文件中的电力对应标煤折算系数0.1229kgce/KWh，此次征求意见稿中5、5.5、6.4kgce/kg，对应电耗 分别为40.7、44.8、52.1度/kg。另外文件新增了颗粒硅能耗标准，1-3级分别对应3.6、4.0、5.0kgce/kg， 对应电耗29.3、32.5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of solid-state batteries, with Enjie Co., Ltd. reaching its daily limit increase and several stocks hitting new highs [1] - The New Materials ETF index fund closely tracks the CSI New Materials Theme Index, with electronic materials accounting for 24.7% and new energy materials for 38.8%, benefiting significantly from market movements, rising over 4.0% during trading [1] - The CSI New Materials Theme Index selects 50 listed companies involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, inorganic non-metals, and other key strategic materials, reflecting the overall performance of new materials theme listed companies [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Materials Theme Index (H30597) include CATL, North Huachuang, Wanhua Chemical, Longi Green Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Tongwei Co., Ltd., Sanan Optoelectronics, and others, collectively accounting for 51.59% of the index [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and financial performance, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, while maintaining a significant market presence in the photovoltaic and feed industries [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of July 31, 2025, Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 40.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51% [2]. - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 58.35% [2]. Stock Market Activity - On September 24, 2025, Tongwei's stock price increased by 2.07%, reaching 21.20 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 620 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.66% [1]. - The company's market capitalization stood at 95.44 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 4.12%, with a 7.79% drop over the last five trading days, but a 19.10% increase over the past 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of July 31, 2025, the number of shareholders was 289,300, a slight decrease of 0.16% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 0.16% to 15,559 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Tongwei has distributed a total of 25.19 billion yuan in dividends, with 16.92 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 164 million shares, a decrease of 29.92 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Various ETFs, including Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, have adjusted their holdings, with some increasing and others decreasing their share counts [3].

Company Overview - Tongwei Co., Ltd. was established in 1995 and is headquartered in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China, controlled by Tongwei Group Co., Ltd. It has developed into a key national enterprise in agricultural industrialization, a major global producer of aquatic feed, high-purity crystalline silicon, and a leading manufacturer of crystalline silicon solar cells [2] - As of December 2024, the company operates over 200 subsidiaries worldwide, employs nearly 60,000 people, and has an annual feed production capacity exceeding 10 million tons. The annual production capacity of high-purity silicon exceeds 900,000 tons, with solar cell capacity exceeding 150 GW and module capacity over 90 GW. The company has developed 56 photovoltaic power stations based on the "fishing-solar integration" model, with a cumulative installed capacity of 4.67 GW [2] Supply Chain Management - Tongwei Co., Ltd. views supply chain management as a core pillar of sustainable development, aiming to create an equal, respectful, transparent, and collaborative environment to promote environmentally friendly, socially inclusive, and well-governed development goals [3] - The company strictly adheres to domestic laws such as the Environmental Protection Law and Labor Law, as well as international standards like RBA Code of Conduct and ILO conventions. By 2024, the signing rate of social responsibility commitment letters and compliance letters among major raw material suppliers in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector reached 100%, achieving full compliance coverage [3] ESG Risk Management - The company has established an ESG risk management mechanism throughout the supplier lifecycle, including key indicator audits for environmental management and labor rights during the admission phase, implementing a "zero tolerance clause" for non-compliance. During the cooperation period, a dual-dimensional tracking system for EHS and ESG is employed to dynamically monitor sustainable development performance [3] - For non-compliance issues, a closed-loop management process is executed, requiring a "7-day rectification plan submission + 3-month improvement deadline," ensuring that ESG risks in the supply chain are controllable and traceable throughout the process [3] Certification and Compliance - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has built a full-process traceability capability from photovoltaic modules to silicon mines, verified by independent third-party audits (STS Senergy, TÜV Rheinland). The company became the first to pass TÜV Rheinland's audit with an A-level or above rating across all processes, with the highest AA-level certification for modules, wafers, rods, and silicon materials [4] - In the field of conflict mineral management, the company strictly follows the UN Global Compact and OECD guidelines, actively promoting suppliers to complete the CMRT conflict mineral survey to ensure the legality and compliance of raw material sources from the outset [4] Sustainable Development Initiatives - In 2025, at the German Photovoltaic Exhibition, Tongwei Co., Ltd. officially launched the "Global Sustainable Partner Program," aimed at global suppliers, channel partners, end customers, industry associations, and certification bodies, focusing on green supply chain collaboration, information platform integration, and public welfare cooperation to build a long-term win-win green development ecosystem [4] Expert Commentary - Experts highlight Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s outstanding performance in supply chain responsibility, noting the establishment of an internal management mechanism for supply chain traceability, which has achieved traceability capabilities from components to silicon mines. The signing rate of social responsibility commitment letters among major raw material suppliers in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector has reached 100%, demonstrating strong supply chain management capabilities [5]