行业景气度是业绩胜负手 A股市场已有超过350家公司发布2025年度业绩预告，一幅清晰的产业景气度"分野图"就此展开。 业绩预告数据显示，在全球科技浪潮与商品周期驱动下，半导体、有色金属行业业绩耀眼，龙头公司普 遍实现高增长；而曾备受瞩目的光伏产业则因产能过剩、价格内卷深陷亏损，多家龙头预亏合计超300 亿元。更为引人深思的是，商业航天、AI应用等此前遭资金热捧的赛道，多数公司业绩预告亏损，凸 显概念炒作后基本面与估值的严重脱节。 综观已披露的业绩预告，A股市场正在经历一场从"预期叙事"到"报表验证"的切换，市场资金正基于业 绩真实成色进行博弈与调仓，业绩确定性已成为当前市场的核心锚点。 半导体业绩实现高增长，光伏龙头陷亏损泥潭 目前已披露的2025年业绩预告清晰地刻画了不同产业周期的分化态势。其中，受益于全球人工智能基础 设施建设浪潮及存储芯片的涨价周期，半导体产业链成为业绩增长的"优等生"。 佰维存储（688525.SH）预计2025年营收、净利均创历史新高。公司预计全年实现营业收入100亿元至 120亿元，同比增长49.36%至79.23%；实现归母净利润8.5亿元至10亿元，同比增长427.19%至 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13% at midday, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.01%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.64%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index decreased by 0.19% [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 198.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks rising [6]. Sector Performance - The ultra-high voltage concept stocks surged, with companies like China Xidian hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks in the electric grid equipment sector also saw significant gains [5][6]. - The retail and tourism sectors experienced a rally, with Xinhua Department Store hitting the daily limit and Guangbai Co. rising over 7% [6]. - The AI application sector showed signs of recovery, with Tianqi Co. reaching the daily limit and other companies like Giant Network and Shiji Information also performing well [7]. Notable Stocks - Cambridge Technology hit the daily limit down, despite forecasting a 51%-67% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, as Q4 performance fell short of expectations [7]. - Yongjiang Co. reached the daily limit after announcing plans to acquire 98.54% of Yongqiang Technology [11]. - Tongwei Co. opened down over 5%, with an expected net loss of approximately 9 to 10 billion yuan for 2025 [12]. Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the photovoltaic leader ETF (516290) seeing a significant increase of 1.37%, with a trading volume exceeding 30 million yuan, marking a four-day consecutive rise in daily performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic leader ETF (516290) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with TBEA rising over 7%, Maiwei Co. and Chint Electric increasing over 5%, while Longi Green Energy and Jiejia Weichuang experienced pullbacks [3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the photovoltaic leader ETF include TBEA, which rose by 7.07%, and TCL Technology, which increased by 2.90%, while Longi Green Energy fell by 2.24% [4]. Group 2: Industry Developments - Junda Co. announced a 30 million yuan investment in Shanghai Xingyi Chip Energy Technology Co., aiming to leverage opportunities in the low-orbit satellite networking and space computing industry, enhancing capabilities in photovoltaic industrialization and perovskite technology [5]. - Space photovoltaic energy is highlighted as a strategic solution for commercial space and high-end applications, with the potential to supply energy to satellites and space stations, marking a pivotal moment for the industry [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities emphasizes that photovoltaic technology is the only viable energy solution in space, with advantages over traditional fossil fuels and nuclear energy, making it suitable for extreme environments [5]. - According to CITIC Securities, the space photovoltaic market is expected to reach a trillion yuan scale, with satellite launches projected to increase from 5,000 to 50,000 between 2025 and 2040, driving demand for photovoltaic batteries from 0.024 GW to 1.8 GW [5]. - Guojin Securities expresses strong confidence in "space photovoltaic" becoming a dominant theme in the energy sector through 2026, driven by surging demand and the urgency for resource competition [6].

Core Viewpoint - Two major photovoltaic companies, Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy, are expected to report significant net losses for the year 2025, with Tongwei projected to lose between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan and Longi between 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, totaling a maximum of 16.5 billion yuan in losses for both companies [2][3]. Company Performance - Tongwei Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss due to a combination of factors including a slowdown in new installations, an industry-wide supply surplus, and rising costs of core raw materials [3][4]. - Longi Green Energy cites ongoing supply-demand mismatches, low operating rates, and increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key reasons for its expected losses [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan also reported a projected loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan, attributing it to insufficient market demand and price declines [3]. Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a prolonged period of losses, with many leading companies reporting negative earnings for nine consecutive quarters [4]. - The average market transaction price for photovoltaic modules is expected to remain low, around 0.6 yuan per watt by mid-2025, due to intense competition and insufficient end-user demand [2]. - The industry is witnessing a significant decline in production volumes, with polysilicon output down by 29.6% and silicon wafer production down by 6.7% year-on-year [5]. Financial Implications - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has reported asset impairment provisions of approximately 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, primarily due to technological changes and market demand fluctuations [3][4]. - Companies like Yijing Photovoltaic have warned that their net assets may turn negative, which could lead to delisting risks if confirmed [4].

Core Viewpoint - Both Tongwei Co. and Longi Green Energy forecast significant losses for 2025, driven by rising raw material costs and declining product prices, leading to increased operational pressure in the photovoltaic industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tongwei Co. - Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of approximately 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, which is an increase from a net loss of 7.039 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company anticipates that the growth in new photovoltaic installations will slow down significantly in the second half of 2025, exacerbating the industry's supply surplus and operational challenges [2]. - Tongwei's losses are attributed to various factors, including a decline in the operating rates across the industry, rising prices of key raw materials like silver, and a continued drop in product prices [2][3]. Group 2: Longi Green Energy - Longi Green Energy projects a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, which is a reduction from a net loss of approximately 8.592 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The company cites ongoing supply-demand mismatches and intense price competition in the photovoltaic sector, alongside rising costs for silver paste and silicon materials, as key challenges for its operations [4][5]. - Longi is focusing on differentiating its products through high-value solutions and has begun scaling up production of its silver paste alternative technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [5]. Group 3: Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressures due to structural overcapacity, with companies like Aiko Solar also predicting losses for 2025, estimating a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan [5][6]. - The overall market is characterized by low product prices and rising raw material costs, which are impacting profitability across the sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic companies Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy are expected to report significant net losses for the year 2025, with Tongwei projected to lose between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan and Longi between 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, totaling a maximum of 16.5 billion yuan in losses for both companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is identified as the "loss leader" among disclosed photovoltaic companies, with a projected loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for the same period, citing ongoing supply-demand mismatches and low-price competition as key factors [1] - TCL Zhonghuan also expects a loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan, attributing it to insufficient market demand and price declines [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a supply-demand mismatch, leading to prolonged low prices for photovoltaic components, with market transaction prices around 0.6 yuan per watt expected by mid-2025 [1] - Rising costs of key raw materials, such as silver paste and silicon materials, have further pressured the profitability of companies like Longi Green Energy [1] - The overall production growth in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector has slowed, with significant declines in the output of polysilicon and silicon wafers, marking the first year-on-year decrease in years [4] Group 3: Financial Adjustments - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has reported a significant increase in asset impairment provisions, estimating between 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan due to market demand changes and technological iterations [2] - The company has also indicated that it will write down approximately 1 billion yuan related to certain photovoltaic power station businesses [2] Group 4: Market Trends - The photovoltaic industry has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with many leading companies continuing to report negative earnings [3] - As of November 2025, prices across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain have increased compared to the beginning of the year, although silicon material prices have seen a significant decline of 38.9% from the start of the year [3]

证券日报网讯1月18日，通威股份（600438）发布公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有 者的净利润约为-90亿元至-100亿元，扣除非经常性损益后净利润同为-90亿元至-100亿元。 ...

盘面上，6G、CPO、光芯片概念跌幅居前，半导体逆势走强。 09:25 A股开盘丨沪指低开0.27% | | 17.77 +2.95 +19.91% | | | | 延翔 股份 立即 300658 交易 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SZSE CNY 9:25:00 休市 查看L2全景 | | | | | 1 0 + | | 委比 | -98.35% 委差 | | Wind ESG评级 B | | | 详情 | | 卖五 | | | रेस | | 19.91% 120日 162.67% | | | 卖加 | | | 19.91% 250日 гн | | | 254.24% | | 卖三 | | | 20日 | 54.39% 52周高 | | 14.90 | | 卖二 | 17.78 | 16310 | 60日 | 107.11% 52周低 | | 4.45 | | 卖 | 17.77 | 833 | | 2023 2024 | | 2025Q3 | | 买一 | 17.76 | 40 | EbS | 0.06 0.08 | | 0.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple leading photovoltaic companies have recently announced expected losses for 2025, with a total estimated loss of 28.9 billion to 32.8 billion yuan among five companies [1]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 6.8 billion to 7.4 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [1]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, also excluding non-recurring items [2]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 1.6 billion to 2.3 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a mismatch in supply and demand, with low operating rates and ongoing price competition leading to a challenging business environment [1]. - The industry has experienced a significant increase in costs for silver paste and silicon materials, which has further pressured the profitability of companies [1]. - The overall installed capacity growth in the photovoltaic sector has slowed down in the second half of the year, contributing to a phase of oversupply [2]. - The structural overcapacity in the industry has not improved significantly, with core raw material prices continuing to rise while product prices remain low [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated that 2026 will see intensified efforts to regulate capacity and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to achieve a dynamic balance in capacity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, and the potential for space photovoltaic technology is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and government support [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic technologies [3] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector saw a 0.79% increase, outperforming the market, with lithium batteries rising by 1.5% and new energy vehicles by 1.29% [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage system shipments are expected to reach 498 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of government investment in energy storage and new energy sectors, with significant projects underway in regions like Jiangxi [3] Company Performance - Companies like Keda and Zhenyu Technology are expected to see substantial profit growth, with Keda projecting a net profit increase of 52.21%-67.43% for 2025 [3] - The report mentions that major companies are entering strategic partnerships and expanding their production capacities, such as Ganfeng Lithium and CATL [3][4] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Junda and Longi Green Energy, indicating challenges in the current market environment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong outlook for energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, recommending investments in leading companies such as CATL, Sunpower, and Sanyuan Electric [3][4] - It emphasizes the potential for growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with Tesla leading the market and significant opportunities for component manufacturers [6] - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market channels, particularly in the AIDC sector [6]